Disney Vacation Club adjusts 2010 Vacation Points charts

[dclfun]

{/QUOTE}What concerns me most about the program in the last year or so is how disenfranchised the membership is becoming. Management seems to have forgotten they have entered into a partnership with owners. What happens if members lose their affection for the program and start selling off en masse? Sure DVC can handle the few resale contracts on the market now, but what if that resale tops 50% of membership? Can they keep up with ROFR on that many contracts at a profitable rate?[/QUOTE]

I'm not happy with some of the changes, but then I've been a member for a long time and remember the "good old days". I recall the huge outpouring of angst when the free passes expired and many people threatened to sell their memberships, but new members kept joining and I doubt many people actually sold, although I have no data or evidence to support that. Lots of us "oldtimers" are the ones disenfranchised, but the newcomers are not. Many of us bought when our children were young-the youngest of my four was 9 years old- now he's 22. My "kids" are looking forward to sharing DVC with their young families and don't remember much of what I do- they're just glad to have the feeling of continuity and a Disney home away from home to use with their families for years to come. I intend to share and pass my membership on to them, and they aren't burdened by my memories, lol. So it's all in the eye of the beholder, based on your own past experience. For the posters who have said that besides looking at the financial implications of purchasing our memberships, for many of us it was also an emotional decision based on the "feeling" we get from being a part of Disney. I just don't see people becoming so disenfranchised en masse that there will be a huge sell-off. There will always be new young and excited members anxious to share a legacy with their children/families and seeing the value of DVC.----Kathy

 

[littlestar]

If DVC were worried about the economy, IMO we would be seeing a lot more attractive incentives than we are now. The current $5 and $6.25 off are the smallest cash incentives we have ever seen. Meanwhile DVC just raised the base price an unprecedented 8% from $104 to $112. Where are the free annual passes? Where are the $500 gift cards? Nothing about the current pricing + incentives suggests that DVC is hurting for sales.

2009 should be interesting. Take a look at this article. I don't think they would be offering the free cruises for add-ons if the economy wasn't an issue:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a32aa9a2-f246-11dd-9678-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

Personally, I'm optimistic and I'm trying to buy some more SSR points resale at a bargain. I haven't been happy with DVC's communication skills here lately (late in getting info on point charts) but my last visit to SSR a few weeks ago cemented why I bought DVC in the first place: I enjoy staying at the DVC resorts on property and feel I can get value out of owning DVC points to accomplish that. Even with the point changes, I still feel I can get value out of owning DVC.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

2009 should be interesting. Take a look at this article. I don't think they would be offering the free cruises for add-ons if the economy wasn't an issue:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a32aa9a2-f246-11dd-9678-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

I read this article in it's entirety. It's not pretty. Just confirms my staement that disney is really hurting.

 

[toocherie]

sorry--read the article after I posted--I was referencing the same thing.

 

[dcfromva]

If DVC were worried about the economy, IMO we would be seeing a lot more attractive incentives than we are now. The current $5 and $6.25 off are the smallest cash incentives we have ever seen. Meanwhile DVC just raised the base price an unprecedented 8% from $104 to $112. Where are the free annual passes? Where are the $500 gift cards? Nothing about the current pricing + incentives suggests that DVC is hurting for sales.

Walt Disney Co. profits dropped 32 percent at close of 2008
Jason Garcia | Sentinel Staff Writer
4:38 PM EST, February 3, 2009
Profits at the Walt Disney Co. fell 32 percent during the final three months of 2008, dragged down by falling DVD sales, weakened advertising revenue, and lower attendance at its theme parks.

Disney said it this afternoon it earned $845 million, or 45 cents a share, during its fiscal first quarter, down from almost $1.3 billion, or 63 cents a share, for the same period a year ago....


Link to article

 

[drusba]

Disney is undoubtedly worried about the economy but i am guessing it is thinking that it can ride through it without any fire sales. Also, in this economy it faces the issue that creating a bunch of new incentives right now might not make much of difference. You just have a lot of people who in normal times may have bought who are not going to buy now regardless of the incentives.

 

[CarolAnnC]

Just a friendly reminder here that we need to stay on topic which is our 2010 DVC Points Charts. Thanks!

 

[tjkraz]

Disney is undoubtedly worried about the economy but i am guessing it is thinking that it can ride through it without any fire sales.

In terms of its DVC business, I agree.

There is a very important distinction between discounting things like Disney Cruise voyages / theme park vacations and DVC points. That factor is the supply of what you are selling.

When Disney opens it theme park or resort doors for the day, or a DCL ship leaves the port, the expenses are committed. It's a sunk cost. Whether that ship is 50% full or 100% full, it costs about the same amount to operate. Whether a resort is at 50% occupancy or 100% occupancy, they still have to staff front desk positions, valet parking, housekeeping, food service, etc.

So even if Disney has to offer those DCL cabins and POFQ hotel rooms at half price, they are much better off than allowing them to sit empty.

DVC is much different. Disney has one chance in 50 years to sell points at the Contemporary. They have one chance in 50 years to sell points at the Animal Kingdom Villas. For that reason, it doesn't make much sense to have a "fire sale" to use drusba's words.

The cruise incentive is nice but hardly unprecedented. 2 and 3 years ago DVC was offering double developer's points, 15% discounts, free annual pass vouchers, $500 gift cards, and so on. In this case, the only sailing dates available are fall (hurricane season) and winter itineraries--periods when DCL is certain to have trouble booking the ship without DVC's assistance. I think the promotion speaks more to the troubles of DCL than those of DVC--although I'm sure they both see it as helping the other out. And let's not forget that this comes in the wake of an 8% price hike on the points. If we factor in the AKV incentive also going from $8 down to $6.25, it's a net 10% price increase over the last 2 months.

 

[SunnieRN]

I've been reading through the thread for several days now and I have a question I will try to phrase as it has me stumped. Since the contracts holders that are most effected by the changes of the reallocation are the smaller contracts, and the change in weekend points was not really that significant, what is going to happen to all the extra days that are freed up by people traveling less?
Does this make sense?
If a lot of people have to shave a day off their trips, move to smaller units etc, will there be enough people on the other end of the spectrum to make up the difference?
It seems that even larger point members will end up spending less extra weekdays at some point? And if everyone or even half of the members try to conserve points by stepping down to the next smaller villa wont that create even more gridlock and a harder time for the small contract holders? Also I don't think anyone who suddenly has three points or even 20 pts extra for their yearly trip can add enough days to make up the difference or move to larger units for the same amount of time.
This is like a math word problem to my way of thinking and I hate math!
I know my "logic" is probably skewed, but can someone explain this to me?

 

[Dean]

I've been reading through the thread for several days now and I have a question I will try to phrase as it has me stumped. Since the contracts holders that are most effected by the changes of the reallocation are the smaller contracts, and the change in weekend points was not really that significant, what is going to happen to all the extra days that are freed up by people traveling less?
Does this make sense?
If a lot of people have to shave a day off their trips, move to smaller units etc, will there be enough people on the other end of the spectrum to make up the difference?
It seems that even larger point members will end up spending less extra weekdays at some point? And if everyone or even half of the members try to conserve points by stepping down to the next smaller villa wont that create even more gridlock and a harder time for the small contract holders? Also I don't think anyone who suddenly has three points or even 20 pts extra for their yearly trip can add enough days to make up the difference or move to larger units for the same amount of time.
This is like a math word problem to my way of thinking and I hate math!
I know my "logic" is probably skewed, but can someone explain this to me?

Any system such as this is an average of members approaches. You've got those that chose to reserve avoiding weekends likely myself, those that don't have enough to do anything else, those that do stay weekends, those that stay more on weekends and any variation you can think of. My expectations are that this change will shift the percentages of those type of groups toward more weekend days overall and slightly less weekdays. Given that you can't go higher than a certain occupancy % and weekdays are still lower, you'll likely see an increase in weekends much more than a decrease in weekdays as some of the orphaned points are put back into play. Specific to those days freed up related to members who don't have enough to do elsewhere, DVC is banking on the idea that others will MORE than take up the slack and fill the weekends. I would bet that DVC is correct and that the overall mix of reservations will be more evened out after the change than before. Of course it'll take some time to see what happens and really a couple of years or more for members to settle in to new reservation patterns. Like now, we'll likely never have the facts but if we did, we'd only have a 5 page thread here.

 

[Starr W.]

Any system such as this is an average of members approaches. You've got those that chose to reserve avoiding weekends likely myself, those that don't have enough to do anything else, those that do stay weekends, those that stay more on weekends and any variation you can think of. My expectations are that this change will shift the percentages of those type of groups toward more weekend days overall and slightly less weekdays. Given that you can't go higher than a certain occupancy % and weekdays are still lower, you'll likely see an increase in weekends much more than a decrease in weekdays as some of the orphaned points are put back into play. Specific to those days freed up related to members who don't have enough to do elsewhere, DVC is banking on the idea that others will MORE than take up the slack and fill the weekends. I would bet that DVC is correct and that the overall mix of reservations will be more evened out after the change than before. Of course it'll take some time to see what happens and really a couple of years or more for members to settle in to new reservation patterns. Like now, we'll likely never have the facts but if we did, we'd only have a 5 page thread here.

I agree Dean, it's going to take a couple of years to see how all this plays out and to be able to get a read on how people are using their points. Plus I think you need to factor in the new reseservation policy along with the new point totals. I think we just got a handle on the res. policy, now we need to see how it works with the new point charts.

 

[White_Sox_Fan]

I've been reading through the thread for several days now and I have a question I will try to phrase as it has me stumped. Since the contracts holders that are most effected by the changes of the reallocation are the smaller contracts, and the change in weekend points was not really that significant, what is going to happen to all the extra days that are freed up by people traveling less?
Does this make sense?
If a lot of people have to shave a day off their trips, move to smaller units etc, will there be enough people on the other end of the spectrum to make up the difference?
It seems that even larger point members will end up spending less extra weekdays at some point? And if everyone or even half of the members try to conserve points by stepping down to the next smaller villa wont that create even more gridlock and a harder time for the small contract holders? Also I don't think anyone who suddenly has three points or even 20 pts extra for their yearly trip can add enough days to make up the difference or move to larger units for the same amount of time.
This is like a math word problem to my way of thinking and I hate math!
I know my "logic" is probably skewed, but can someone explain this to me?

By raising the point values on weekdays they have essentially created more supply on weekdays. By all reasoning there was enough demand for these days that there will still be no problem filling them. By lowering weekend points there is less supply so the same amount of point usage will yield a higher occupancy rate. Will it work as planned? We'll have to wait and see. I expect that things will hold for the next few years to fully evaluate the changes in the system.

I would agree with a lot of what has been said that 160 point minimum, along with two very large resorts being added, has helped to create this demand shift. You see several threads where people asked how many points they need to purchase. There never is a concrete answer. When we purchased we felt 160 points was not going to give us enough flexibility (and isn't that one of the best features of DVC) to meet our needs. I never had any preset expectation as to a certain number of nights I should expect from my purchase and maybe that is why I am not as upset as everyone else. I just use them as I need them. For example this March my daughter has a school trip where the band, choir, orchestra and dance academy perform. My wife and I, along with my parents, friends and my daughters friends relatives are all going to be there but for different lengths of time. I have a 2BR from F-W, a studio from S-W and another studio from M-W. This is exactly the kind of flexibility I want from the system. The price one pays for this flexibility is the possibility that shifting demand may require the type of restructuring that has been done.

 

[hellerjw]

The cruise incentive is nice but hardly unprecedented. 2 and 3 years ago DVC was offering double developer's points, 15% discounts, free annual pass vouchers, $500 gift cards, and so on. In this case, the only sailing dates available are fall (hurricane season) and winter itineraries--periods when DCL is certain to have trouble booking the ship without DVC's assistance. I think the promotion speaks more to the troubles of DCL than those of DVC--although I'm sure they both see it as helping the other out. And let's not forget that this comes in the wake of an 8% price hike on the points. If we factor in the AKV incentive also going from $8 down to $6.25, it's a net 10% price increase over the last 2 months.

Makes me really glad we did our AKV add-ons last August when we got matching DPs, two $500 gift cards and the $8/pt discount ($96/pt). I may have actually timed something pretty well for a change

 

[Anal Annie]

I've been reading through the thread for several days now and I have a question I will try to phrase as it has me stumped. Since the contracts holders that are most effected by the changes of the reallocation are the smaller contracts, and the change in weekend points was not really that significant, what is going to happen to all the extra days that are freed up by people traveling less?Does this make sense?
If a lot of people have to shave a day off their trips, move to smaller units etc, will there be enough people on the other end of the spectrum to make up the difference?
It seems that even larger point members will end up spending less extra weekdays at some point? And if everyone or even half of the members try to conserve points by stepping down to the next smaller villa wont that create even more gridlock and a harder time for the small contract holders? Also I don't think anyone who suddenly has three points or even 20 pts extra for their yearly trip can add enough days to make up the difference or move to larger units for the same amount of time.
This is like a math word problem to my way of thinking and I hate math! Me too!
I know my "logic" is probably skewed, but can someone explain this to me?

My thoughts exactly.

I think that Thursdays will end up being WIDE open for ressies (as personally, if we were planning a Sun-Thur trip and have to drop a day off it will be Thurs so we can keep one day on the weekend which is less time off work). In our case, we may drop the entire trip as it's harder to justify the airfare for less nights. Personally, we might go ahead & book the unit then watch for a deal on the air then cancel the whole trip if we can't find a deal to get there. I think that the frequency of shorter trips are a big unknown now. I think travel patterns will change for many.

Also, I think that there will be a lot of people dropping in unit size. Many DVC'ers have previously booked larger units because they like the extra space but not necessarily because they NEEDED the extra space. Now if they need to conserve points I think more people will bring aerobeds so their teenage boys & girls don't have that taboo sleeping arrangement issue and they will drop from a 2 bedroom to a one bedroom and more who used to use 1 bedrooms will cut back to studios in order to stretch their points. I think that those of us who only ever intended to use studios will find more competition for our usual accomodations.


Now, what I am wondering is if the guides are being up front about these new charts with new potential buyers. If I walked up to a kiosk or took the tour today and inquired about how many points I should think about buying would they TELL me I need to consider the new charts before buying? Just curious how DVC sales are handling this reallocation with potential new members. Are they showing them what COULD happen by comparing the 2 years of charts with their customers???

 

[bobbiwoz]

Well, there are still people like us who would consider adding Thursday night to the reservation for a long weekend. I have found in booking long weekends, that it's often Sunday that is hard to get...long weekend people and Sunday to Friday morning people want them. I've also done Thursday to Monday morning. I think there are more people who do not always book Sunday to Friday morning who will adjust to what's available.

Sundays are hard, in fact, for this June, (about 6 months from booking) I only wanted 4 nights since I had exactly 50 points to spend. Sunday night was booked, but I got a combo of BCV 1 night and then AKV standard 3 nights, Monday to Friday Morning, 50 points, exactly right!

My only waitlist that didn't come through was also for a Sunday night and I have a Sunday night waitlist now.

Bobbi

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Well, there are still people like us who would consider adding Thursday night to the reservation for a long weekend. I have found in booking long weekends, that it's often Sunday that is hard to get...long weekend people and Sunday to Friday morning people want them. I've also done Thursday to Monday morning. I think there are more people who do not always book Sunday to Friday morning who will adjust to what's available.

Sundays are hard, in fact, for this June, (about 6 months from booking) I only wanted 4 nights since I had exactly 50 points to spend. Sunday night was booked, but I got a combo of BCV 1 night and then AKV standard 3 nights, Monday to Friday Morning, 50 points, exactly right!

My only waitlist that didn't come through was also for a Sunday night and I have a Sunday night waitlist now.

Bobbi

This is exactly what I am doing next year.....using 50 pts. at 7 mos., will be making a ressie for Thurs., Fri, Sat.....then moving on to my home resort for 6 days! I am hoping I have good luck starting on the Thursday!

 

[bobbiwoz]

This is exactly what I am doing next year.....using 50 pts. at 7 mos., will be making a ressie for Thurs., Fri, Sat.....then moving on to my home resort for 6 days! I am hoping I have good luck starting on the Thursday!

And here's some pixie dust for you!

Bobbi

 

[jenelope]

I just got back from a long business trip, so pardon me if this has already been discussed. My first reaction to the news was that they must have a lot of people using their points for S-Th stays, leaving them with a lot of open rooms on the weekends and not enough open inventory on weeknights. It makes sense that they would try to correct that,

For my usual style of vacation, it's not going to make too much difference. I usually stay in a studio for 7-8 nights. However, when I bring my family with me, I usually do a S-Th stay in a two bedroom villa. That's going to put a pinch on my points, but I suppose it's manageable.

The one thing that really is going to be very different for me is that I may no longer stay in my home resort (SSR) when I travel in October. A week in a studio at SSR in October went up 8 points. Most non-Premier Season points categories went up 0-4 points per week. I haven't looked at every single chart, but it appears that it's one of the biggest jumps in point value that isn't a grand villa during Premier Season. I feel like a) I'm being subtly discouraged from vacationing at that time; and b) those people who complain about SSR owners playing havoc with BWV and BCV availability during Food and Wine Festival are really going to have something to complain about now.

 

[jana]

When Disney originally set up the high cost for weekends the justification was that they were concerned that locals ( Fl residents) would book up all the weekends and that people wanting longer trips would find they may have to check out mid stay and move to another resort or just go home. I will guess that with time and changes in the way many of the members now vacation Disney has realized that perhaps they were a little too extreme with their original costing differences and what has happened is the exact opposite of what they wanted to avoid, but has the same result, in that weekdays are full and weekends not so, still an inconvenience by limiting booking options/availability.

This is certainly an issue to the members as it is impacting availability. Perhaps more of a driving reason to the change is that the available rooms that Disney has to rent out in order to pay for cash bookings (concierge collection or cruises) are high point cost weekend nights. Disney can earn much more revenue from, for example, 50 points by using it for 5 nights midweek than it can by charging granted slightly more per night but only having 2 nights at a weekend. I.E. 5X$250 per night = $1250 vs 2X$350=$700

By leveling out demand over the week it will, hopefully, benefit members by having more members (mostly Fl residents) using their points at weekends therefore freeing up more weekdays for all of us. I hope that if it does, as I believe, mean Disney can become more efficient at raising revenue from the points members exchange back for cash cost usages. Hopefully it will allow DVC to reduce the points cost for those options as they will be able to raise more money from those cash rentals rather than just pocket the difference.

 

[photobob]

I just got back from a long business trip, so pardon me if this has already been discussed. My first reaction to the news was that they must have a lot of people using their points for S-Th stays, leaving them with a lot of open rooms on the weekends and not enough open inventory on weeknights. It makes sense that they would try to correct that,

For my usual style of vacation, it's not going to make too much difference. I usually stay in a studio for 7-8 nights. However, when I bring my family with me, I usually do a S-Th stay in a two bedroom villa. That's going to put a pinch on my points, but I suppose it's manageable.

The one thing that really is going to be very different for me is that I may no longer stay in my home resort (SSR) when I travel in October. A week in a studio at SSR in October went up 8 points. Most non-Premier Season points categories went up 0-4 points per week. I haven't looked at every single chart, but it appears that it's one of the biggest jumps in point value that isn't a grand villa during Premier Season. I feel like a) I'm being subtly discouraged from vacationing at that time; and b) those people who complain about SSR owners playing havoc with BWV and BCV availability during Food and Wine Festival are really going to have something to complain about now.

Personally I think it will make studios and 1 bedroom villas much more difficult to get at the 7 month mark. The higher point costs will make people rent smaller rooms. I very well may be wrong, but it is my best guess. I believe it will make it even more important to buy where you want to stay especially for studios.

As far as SSR owners mucking up the system, that is understandable because there are so many of us, but any DVC member would want to stay at the Epcot resorts during F&W. I would think by the seventh month window rooms for that time would be few and far between anyway. If you don't want to get blocked out of your home resort, make your reservation before the seven month window opens.