I don't believe this at all. There are people that will not get on a gondola or sky bucket of any kind. Disney wouldn't tell these guests to get over their fear of heights.
Let's face the facts - Disney is building this gondola system for one reason and one reason only - to increase their profits. How they are doing this is likely to be three-fold.
1) Allowing them to build a DVC resort in a location that they otherwise couldn't sell a DVC resort. At $200 a point and 5 million points - that's one BILLION in revenue in 2019-2021.
2) Increase of prices for resorts servicing directly to DHS and Epcot. WIth 3000 rooms at Pop Century, another 1000-1500 (I see different numbers out there) and another 1500 at CBR - even a $10 raise in room rates is $22 million a year increased profits.
3) REDUCED TRANSPORTATION COSTS: The gondola will cost significantly less than the number of buses it's replacing. While "reducing stress on the bus system" may be a benefit, the truth is the true cost of the bus system is the buses themselves. From an employee standpoint, the gondolas will likely staff about the same number of employees as the buses, but if you consider there has to be 2-3 buses occupying the loop from each of these resorts to Epcot and DHS at any one time, that's dropping up to 18 buses from regular service, as well as not adding MORE buses for Riviera. Each bus costs at least $300,000, not to mention maintenance costs.
So in the end, if they are still running buses, they are defeating part of the purpose here. Admittedly, the savings on the buses is the smallest of the three benefits, but they will NOT want to add a new transportation service and still continue to pay for the old one.
I do agree that if a guest comes to the front guest and says "I am terrified of riding the gondola." they won't respond "Well, you shouldn't be staying here then, should you?" They will provide some sort of alternative transportation. BUT - that alternative transportation will unlikely be fast or convenient. Could they run one bus that loops all 4 resorts and the parks so it comes by once an hour? Maybe they will do that. Or maybe they will instruct people to take a bus to DAK and then hop the Epcot/DHS bus. I don't know what the answer is.
The other thing I am nearly 100% certain is that they will allow anyone to ride the gondola. Disney has never restricted their public transportation system to resort guests only, and they aren't about to start now. I'm sure if the Epcot resorts were being built today - their would be talk about how the Friendship boats when they open will be restricted to resort guests - but those aren't either. One thing people keep neglecting in this conversation - the gondolas will have much larger capacities than any of these.
I counted and timed the departures of buses at the Pop and AofA Epcot stops on Monday night. It took eleven full buses (four AofA, seven Pop)* to clear the waiting lines to these resorts to below one bus, departing between 9.20p and 10.12p, or 52 minutes. At 60 people per bus, that's 660 people for these two resorts, or 12.7 people per minute.
Now Monday was a slow night at Epcot ("3" according to Touring Plans), so double for a busier night, and add 30% more for CB (its occupancy-adjusted proportion of these three) and you'd get 1,716 people on a busier night with CB included.
*The Pop line was very heavy, but no one in it seemed to think of riding the AofA bus instead. The CB bus stop was right next door, but I did not trust my ability to track three separate stops, so did not track it.
This is very cool that you do this! I am not sure I totally agree with your "double for a busier night" I always think that busier nights is more about off-site visitors. The on-site resorts average capacities around 90% occupancy at all times. A 90% occupied Pop Century is going to have a similar number of occupants and busy and slow times. But even so let's go with your numbers.
If the capacity of the gondolas is ~3000 per hour, that 1716 people will be transported is just over 30 minutes - unlike the bus system that took 52 minutes. And as others have pointed out - the line will be constantly moving. So those people that showed up for the bus at 9:10 are already long gone by the time people showing up at 9:20 are arriving and seeing 200 people in line for a bus. You are probably looking at maximum waits for the gondola of maybe 15 minutes even on the worst nights - and again remembering you are back at your resort in 5-10 minutes once you get on the gondola. (The only other possible problem is the guests from both DHS and Epcot going to Pop/AOA both showing up at the Pop gondola branch at the same time...hopefully Disney will have the good sense to stagger closings of these two parks.