POT (Proof of Time) Race Equivalency Cutoff Confirmed Times

Thank you so much @DopeyBadger for all the great work you do around this for us DISers. I cannot find the post now, but at one point when we were speculating on bib numbers to corrals, I think you had posted a table or information on it and I cannot find it now. I just looked up my princess half bib and it's 786 (I am doing only the half marathon). Is it safe to assume this is a solid corral B bib? I submitted a PoT of a 58 minute 10k. I think that's a yes but I am seeing a ton of speculation on FB about expanded corral A and B fields but I think it's just wild guessing. Any ideas?

Based on past assignments, a 58 min 10k submitted for a HM solo or HM Challenge would solidly be in Corral B.

I don't use past bib numbers to make guesses about assignments because it very much depends on the number of participants. Bib #1000 in a 2000 person race is greatly different than Bib #1000 in a 20000 person race. Even within a weekend, the number of bibs assigned varies year over year.

There are ~11,495 HM solo bibs. About 17-20% of those will be under the Corral B cutoff posted on the OP based on previous runDisney Marathon weekends, but Princess could trend slower. So I would guess the cutoff for Corral B based on 11,495 bibs and about 17-20% of the field is somewhere around Bib #1950-2300 or so. That's a VERY rough guess. Based on @WillRunForPizza's post in the thread bib #18xx is a 2:15-2:30 estimate, and bib #4XX is a 1:57 HM POT (which would be corral A, but near the cutoff of 2:00). So your bib number of #786 is right in the middle area closer to 4XX and looks like a Corral B assignment even outside of the knowledge of the 58 min 10k.
 
So your bib number of #786 is right in the middle area closer to 4XX and looks like a Corral B assignment even outside of the knowledge of the 58 min 10k.
Thank you so much, as usual! Super helpful and I know it's foolish to spend time wondering when I will know in a couple of days. I saw folks assuming all corrals are all the same size and that's simply not true. A and B are the smallest based on what I have seen.
 
Thank you so much, as usual! Super helpful and I know it's foolish to spend time wondering when I will know in a couple of days. I saw folks assuming all corrals are all the same size and that's simply not true. A and B are the smallest based on what I have seen.

Hey, we've all been there and enjoy the buildup to the race itself. And that includes spending some mental energy the days before the expo trying to ascertain bib number to corral assignment. But at the end of the day, the system in the OP has been solid for several years when it comes to HM and M assignments. Although I do believe they're under new management now, so changes could be coming. While unlikely, it wouldn't shock me to see all OP assigned Corral A (sub 2:00) and B runners (sub 2:15) put just in Corral A, but again that would be against the last several years of how they've done things.

Years ago they used to do evenly assigned corrals (evenly distribute M/Goofy/Dopey). Like the image below:

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Screenshot 2024-02-20 at 1.42.30 PM.png

But they stopped doing it (I assume) because of all the complaints from non-POT runners who would submit the fastest possible choice (I believe it was written submission and not a drop down). So those that put exactly 5:30:00 could have been assigned I, J or K based on the above. They presumably got lots of emails pre-race about how Joe and Sally put the same time and got different assignments. So they stopped posting the corral info in advance, and they moved to lesser corrals with mini-waves. Then they didn't have to control how many runners were assigned to Corral A or B. Instead, Corral A would take 2 min to release and Corral C would take 25 min to release with mini-waves released every couple minutes (proportional to the number of runners assigned to it). Since 2020 or so, they've used the system that I account for in the OP, and the corrals are not evenly distributed like seen in this image covering 2018-2020.

Screenshot 2024-02-20 at 1.38.29 PM.png
 
Can I just tell you that my heart stopped when I saw your updated chart because my eyes were drawn to the 10 Mile POT of 1:31:15. I was looking to check the half marathon time for Wine and Dine and I completely thought that the 10 Mile POT was the new POT for a half marathon.
 


Can I just tell you that my heart stopped when I saw your updated chart because my eyes were drawn to the 10 Mile POT of 1:31:15. I was looking to check the half marathon time for Wine and Dine and I completely thought that the 10 Mile POT was the new POT for a half marathon.

That sure would have been an aggressive cutoff. Less than a hundred runners for sure.
 
This is close to the Time Qualifier for the NYC Marathon based on half-marathon times for my age bracket (1:32:00). That is just stupid fast!

Yea, the NYC Time Qualifier standard is really tough. Less than 1-3% of runners within a AG standard can actually hit that. A BQ is somewhere around 3-6% of runners within a AG standard. Both are intentionally fast for different reasons. NYC really wants to restrict time qualifiers, whereas Boston uses that as it's main registration method.
 


Yea, the NYC Time Qualifier standard is really tough. Less than 1-3% of runners within a AG standard can actually hit that. A BQ is somewhere around 3-6% of runners within a AG standard. Both are intentionally fast for different reasons. NYC really wants to restrict time qualifiers, whereas Boston uses that as it's main registration method.

But if you're an older runner, it's great! It's how I got in both times I qualified. They've since made it harder, and now are getting rid of the half for non-NYRR runners.

Now if they'd just stop sending me emails telling me my time last Nov qualifies me for automatic entry this year. It's embarrassing to think that slow a time is sufficient.
 

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