Disney parks closed until 2021?

[Stork]

...I realize that WDW is not NYC. However, Disney does rely on massive amounts of national and international tourists to make their profit. Many people will be unable to travel for a while, due to restrictions and/or financial loss. And every type of social distancing or sanitizing measures in the parks just raises more questions...

WDW cannot afford to open anything if it has to rely on patronage from the Orlando area or even from the whole state of FL. The numbers are just not there. TRAVEL from the whole U.S. and international locations must be possible (and safe) before Disney can consider opening WDW in any capacity. Throw in the totally uncertain school schedules in the near future and families can't plan a trip much less bank on being able to travel there in any case. Sadly, I'm having to fall into the "not until 2021" camp.

 

[anthony2k7]

WDW cannot afford to open anything if it has to rely on patronage from the Orlando area or even from the whole state of FL. The numbers are just not there. TRAVEL from the whole U.S. and international locations must be possible (and safe) before Disney can consider opening WDW in any capacity. Throw in the totally uncertain school schedules in the near future and families can't plan a trip much less bank on being able to travel there in any case. Sadly, I'm having to fall into the "not until 2021" camp.

I disagree a bit. This is where the phases opening comes in. I think opening just MK and a few resorts initially may be financially viable.

Disneyland survives with a huge % of their visitors being localish. So limit wdw to MK and work on a similar scale and it might work for a while.

I suppose the real problem is that everything is going to take significantly more CMs to operate now for a lot less guests so the cost increase will be significant.

 

[ifitzger]

Posted this on the news thread, but I read an article stating that a bunch of restaurants and attractions are going to open in Pigeon Forge, TN starting May 1st. There is a theme park there (Dollywood), but no word on when/if or how it is opening.

Would be a good litmus test to see how the public reacts to these things opening back and how they handle things

Going in July...we'll see...

 

[Sarahslay]

Going in July...we'll see...

Same, and I'm in the camp of people who really don't put much stock in what one financial analyst with no ties to Disney says. While people say "they can't afford to open" they also have to realize that both WDW and the state of Florida can't afford to NOT open before 2021. I'm in a state that is starting to open back up, I have three trips on the books between now and December, so if they're open they'll get my money (even if I do believe my state is moving too fast, that's a whole other discussion).

 

[GPC0321]

Yes, I heard it too from another source also, but it was word of mouth so cannot point anyone to a source. I, too, in my heart feel the same.
Seeing first hand from family in the health care, plus friends on the front lines, this virus has hardly reached a peak yet, and definitely hasn't leveled off, or declined. It ebbs and flows in different areas, but over all in the states, we're very much still fighting the battle.

The very nature of what Disney (and other theme parks) is (crowds, lines, etc.) would make it very difficult for them to make a way to open as things are now.

I agree. I always figured our Christmas trip was as good as safe, and maybe it still will be, but I won't be surprised if it doesn't happen. One of my best friends is married to a pulmonologist, and even though we're not in a "hot spot" for the virus, we still have enough of it here that her husband says they're losing more patients than they can save right now. She and he haven't been in physical contact since our state's stay-at-home order because she has a compromised immune system and they don't want to risk him bringing it home to her. So she has her part of the house and he has his, and they eat dinner "together" via Facetime.

I'm a teacher. We just received word that we will not be returning to school this year (expected) and there is even talk about what starting back in the fall will look like. I've been teaching for 19 years, and I've never seen anything like this. It's completely unprecedented. Our state's death toll is now higher than our flu death toll. Even with social distancing and shelter in place, more people have died from COVID-19 in just over a month than died from the flu in a 5-month span. Imagine what those numbers would look like without the precautions being taken now.

I understand the desire to have things returning to normal (whatever that may look like from here on out), and certainly the need for some semblance of normalcy for economic reasons. But I fear those who think it's impossible that Disney will be closed until 2021 aren't really understanding the nature of the beast we're dealing with here. Not to mention the strong possibility that the virus will surge again in the winter, which would force everything to be locked down again.

I guess time will tell.

 

[whiporee]

Honestly I don’t know how they open at all without risking becoming a major source of spread period.

Because they weren’t a major source of spread back when they were open, and people were shoulder to shoulder for three or four days, hugging and saying goodbye.

Because we’ve been social distancing for six weeks, so the number of contagious people should be actually lower than it was, since that was the point.

Because anything that was left behind on surfaces has died out by now.

Because Orange County and Osceola Counties have been averaging fewer than 25 new cases a day for four weeks now.

Aside from the idea that any gathering at all will spread something, there no reason to assume opening the parks will be a mass spread. While we saw evidence of that in Europe, there haven’t been cases in the US of crowds directly translating to infections. Common sense says they would, but the number suggest they haven’t.

 

[anthony2k7]

Because they weren’t a major source of spread back when they were open, and people were shoulder to shoulder for three or four days, hugging and saying goodbye.

Because we’ve been social distancing for six weeks, so the number of contagious people should be actually lower than it was, since that was the point.

Because anything that was left behind on surfaces has died out by now.

Because Orange County and Osceola Counties have been averaging fewer than 25 new cases a day for four weeks now.

Aside from the idea that any gathering at all will spread something, there no reason to assume opening the parks will be a mass spread. While we saw evidence of that in Europe, there haven’t been cases in the US of crowds directly translating to infections. Common sense says they would, but the number suggest they haven’t.

There was little testing at all back then, and almost no contact tracing.

No one knows how many cases could have been linked to disney.

 

[JayhawkCruiser]

There was little testing at all back then, and almost no contact tracing.

No one knows how many cases could have been linked to disney.

I can’t decide which is the better assumption from that post - of all the potential contributors to the spread of diseases in general that theme parks wouldn’t be a major one, or that anyone is worried about this virus still being on surfaces in Disney from back in March lmao!

 

[DavidHobart]

We'll find out soon enough. Let's hope for the best. One of the biggest problems, IMO, is what happens if a cast member tests positive, has to self quarantine for 14 days, what about all the other cast members (and guests) he or she comes in contact with? Will they have to go in self quarantine for 14 days? That could end up being half of the staff in one particular location. The whole thing is a giant mess.

You might want to look up "close contact." Although there is still limited scientific evidence behind it, it applies to many fewer people than you may think. Our local health department defines it re COVID-19 as "within six feet of a person for two hours or more." CDC says 30 minutes. At the health care facility I lead as my day job, we take a much narrower definition--within 6 feet for fifteen minutes or more.* But it absolutely does not mean "all the other cast members (and guests) he or she comes in contact with." It means within 6 feet for 15 minutes or longer (or two hours, or something in between).

*Being sneezed on or coughed on within 6 feet throws out the time dimension--you become a close contact instantly in that circumstance. That's why we strongly encourage face masks, and require them in settings were folks will inescapably be within six feet at times. Face masks eliminate most of the clinical and all of the quarantine risk from a sneeze or cough, so long as the sneezer or cougher is wearing them...

 

[Pickle Rick]

We'll find out soon enough. Let's hope for the best.

You might want to look up "close contact." Although there is still limited scientific evidence behind it, it applies to may fewer people than you may think. Our local health department defines it re COVID-19 as "within six feet of a person for two hours or more." At the health care facility I lead as my day job, we take a much narrower definition--within 6 feet for fifteen minutes or more.* But it absolutely does not mean "all the other cast members (and guests) he or she comes in contact with." It means within 6 feet for 15 minutes or longer (or two hours, or something in between).

*Being sneezed on or coughed on within 6 feet throws out the time dimension--you become a close contact instantly in that circumstance. That's why we strongly encourage face masks, and require them in settings were folks will inescapably be within six feet at times. Face masks eliminate most of the clinical and all of the quarantine risk from a sneeze or cough, so long as the sneezer or cougher is wearing them...

If you're a cast member working 5-6 days a week, you likely come into contact with numerous co-workers and leaders many times throughout the day, each day, every day.

 

[DavidHobart]

If you're a cast member working 5-6 days a week, you likely come into contact with numerous co-workers and leaders many times throughout the day, each day, every day.

Of course. So do all my staff. They are either 6 feet apart, of if closer contact is unavoidable, together for less than 15 minutes and wearing a cloth face mask.

 

[Pickle Rick]

Of course. So do all my staff. They are either 6 feet apart, of if closer contact is unavoidable, together for less than 15 minutes and wearing a cloth face mask.

We'll see what happens. Disney is likely to take very serious precautions.

 

[Sarahslay]

I agree. I always figured our Christmas trip was as good as safe, and maybe it still will be, but I won't be surprised if it doesn't happen. One of my best friends is married to a pulmonologist, and even though we're not in a "hot spot" for the virus, we still have enough of it here that her husband says they're losing more patients than they can save right now. She and he haven't been in physical contact since our state's stay-at-home order because she has a compromised immune system and they don't want to risk him bringing it home to her. So she has her part of the house and he has his, and they eat dinner "together" via Facetime.

I'm a teacher. We just received word that we will not be returning to school this year (expected) and there is even talk about what starting back in the fall will look like. I've been teaching for 19 years, and I've never seen anything like this. It's completely unprecedented. Our state's death toll is now higher than our flu death toll. Even with social distancing and shelter in place, more people have died from COVID-19 in just over a month than died from the flu in a 5-month span. Imagine what those numbers would look like without the precautions being taken now.

I understand the desire to have things returning to normal (whatever that may look like from here on out), and certainly the need for some semblance of normalcy for economic reasons. But I fear those who think it's impossible that Disney will be closed until 2021 aren't really understanding the nature of the beast we're dealing with here. Not to mention the strong possibility that the virus will surge again in the winter, which would force everything to be locked down again.

I guess time will tell.

The thing is, everyones area and situation are different. Our hospital has had very few covid cases, and we've only had 4 deaths total (and one of them wasn't even at that hospital, that person went to Atlanta), and most of our doctors are hurting because they have no patients to treat. A lot of our counties population has had it but couldn't get tested, and now we have the ability to do rapid testing on anyone who requests it at the health department and we've only seen a small amount more than we were before, maybe 2 a day if that, and most are not severe enough to need medical intervention. Every areas situation is completely different, every hospitals situation is completely different, and we can't judge how different areas respond based on the observations of our own personal situation. It would be foolish for me to say "this isn't a big deal" just because my area doesn't have a huge problem, but it's also not wise for other comments stating "hospitals are over run, we can't handle it, everyone is dying" when that's not the situation in a good amount of the population (especially those in more rural areas). So far my area hasn't even come close to our flu death numbers, every area is different.

I work in the healthcare industry, I've already had the virus and have been better for about a month now, we even think my cat got it (but there are no facilities anywhere near us with the ability to test a cat, so we can only speculate). I have friends and family who were at Disney the week they closed, and even with a few confirmed cases coming from people there are the same time so many people did not contract it, and you would think if WDW would be a hot bed for infection that would have been the perfect environment for it. They will make the best decision they believe they can based on the information given, and then it's up to the rest of us to make the right decision for ourselves. If you don't think it's right that they open whenever they do, don't go. If they are open in time for my trip I will go, and we will come back and do what we usually do anyway, stay home. It's the same that I'm doing now as I don't agree with my governors decision to begin opening, I'm making the decision to not go out and keep staying at home. It's my choice to make.

 

[Sarahslay]

There was little testing at all back then, and almost no contact tracing.

No one knows how many cases could have been linked to disney.

There have actually been numerous stories of people there in March who got sick, even one that lives near me. There were people who got sick at some point on their trip, whether that be at the parks, their hotel (on or off property), at the airport, on a plane, and who knows where else they could get it. However, I do think that if an outbreak occurred during that time that could be traced back (and they did trace numerous people who had been at Disney) we would have heard about it.

 

[sghokie]

I think they are going to need to wait until there is a good treatment that works well for most people. So far nothing has really worked despite a number of touted medicines that did not do well in clinical trials.

 

[sunsetbeachgal]

I think they are going to need to wait until there is a good treatment that works well for most people. So far nothing has really worked despite a number of touted medicines that did not do well in clinical trials.

Or better yet a vaccine that is widely available. Which unfortunately will most likely take awhile.

 

[sghokie]

Or better yet a vaccine that is widely available. Which unfortunately will most likely take awhile.

Can you imagine how long it will take to get a vaccine administered? It's hard enough to get everyone to the DMV to get the Real ID. And then you will have the deniers. This whole thing is a mess, sometimes I still can't believe that it's all happening.

 

[KayMichigan]

An effective treatment is much more likely than a vaccine, which may never happen.

 

[wareagle57]

WDW cannot afford to open anything if it has to rely on patronage from the Orlando area or even from the whole state of FL. The numbers are just not there. TRAVEL from the whole U.S. and international locations must be possible (and safe) before Disney can consider opening WDW in any capacity. Throw in the totally uncertain school schedules in the near future and families can't plan a trip much less bank on being able to travel there in any case. Sadly, I'm having to fall into the "not until 2021" camp.

I disagree that there isn’t short term benefit to opening to Florida only. Obviously long term it would not work but that doesn’t mean it’s pointless to open at a smaller capacity and ramp up and test things out.

 

[sghokie]

They would likely follow a phased approach like Shanghai Disneyland and reopen just Disney Springs at first. It has been over a month that happened in China and their park is not open yet still.
I think the quarantines were more effective in China vs the US, I think their more draconian measures probably worked to their advantage. Sadly there is a video of workers welding an apartment door shut in China.

Here in the US cases are still climbing every day, so I think we still have a ways to go.