Disney parks closed until 2021?

[DizDaD7]

Uhhhhhh.....This is soooo Depressing......And Such a reality that we unfortunately have 2 deal with.

 

[gottalovepluto]

Yes. WDW will totally re-open on New Year's Day. Can't think of a better day for it.

OR- he's a Wall St analyst who needed to make up a year end number so that his job didn't look pointless as all get out. See "As a result, he anticipates Disney’s theme parks take a $500 million earnings hit in 2020". Magical how his reopening date solved all his math problems

 

[Eric Smith]

Yes. WDW will totally re-open on New Year's Day. Can't think of a better day for it.

OR- he's a Wall St analyst who needed to make up a year end number so that his job didn't look pointless as all get out. See "As a result, he anticipates Disney’s theme parks take a $500 million earnings hit in 2020". Magical how his reopening date solved all his math problems

Someone in the financial sector behaving unethically? Say it isn't so!

 

[SaintsManiac]

It would be the safest thing to do, but not the smartest money wise.

 

[Eric Smith]

It would be the safest thing to do, but not the smartest money wise.

It would be safest for all of us to stay locked in our houses for the rest of our lives too. There's going to have to be some acceptable level of risk here once we are able to increase our testing capacity. We can't survive by shutting things down until there is a vaccine, that's just not feasible.

 

[SaintsManiac]

It would be safest for all of us to stay locked in our houses for the rest of our lives too. There's going to have to be some acceptable level of risk here once we are able to increase our testing capacity. We can't survive by shutting things down until there is a vaccine, that's just not feasible.

Oh lord give me strength.

That is not what I was saying AT ALL and this argument is being had in about 17 threads right now. I am not going to engage.

 

[Eric Smith]

Oh lord give me strength.

That is not what I was saying AT ALL and this argument is being had in about 17 threads right now. I am not going to engage.

What were you saying? I read it that you said the safest thing would be for the parks to stay closed for the rest of the year.

 

[Luxurious_Lumiere]

For those saying the only thing holding WDW back from reopening are state decisions...the unfortunate thing is that different types of businesses are going to reopen at different times. And the nature of WDW means it will likely be one of the last types of businesses to fully reopen.

For reference, I live in NYC and work in the theatre industry. The Broadway League has already said that September is best case scenario for Broadway reopening. Why? Certain social distancing measures would be impossible to enact in a theater while still make a dime. For instance, Cutting the capacity of houses is not financially feasible, the margins are too slim. The industry also depends on national and international tourism, and there are still too many travel restrictions in place. Not to mention fear and financial hardships. My organization has already made the decision that we cannot reopen until December. Other businesses in NYC will open before us. Office buildings, some stores and restaurants, places that can more easily implement social distancing and other precautions. Places with massive gatherings of people are going to be the last on the list, and the places that are most direly affected: theater, clubs, sporting events, concerts, theme parks.

I realize that WDW is not NYC. However, Disney does rely on massive amounts of national and international tourists to make their profit. Many people will be unable to travel for a while, due to restrictions and/or financial loss. And every type of social distancing or sanitizing measures in the parks just raises more questions. If you socially distance queues, lines will back up into the walkways causing congestion there. If sanitizing after each passenger slows down the ride, where do people go to wait in these VERY long waits? If they discontinue meet and greets, will enough people buy memory maker? If you remove seats from restaurants, will they be able to turn a profit? Will people even be willing to take their "once in a lifetime" vacation in a pandemic if half of the activities are removed or altered? Its like Hercules cutting off the head of the hydra only for three more to appear.

2021 does seem like perhaps a worst case scenario, but it is certainly possible. I'm more leaning towards September in my reopening predictions (maybe Springs and/or some resorts are opened prior to test things out). Unless we have all of Disney's budgetary numbers and contingency plans in our hands, none of us know the answers. But you can bet a 2021 opening is one of the many options on the list.

 

[CastAStone]

There was an analyst from UBS who said this last week. There was also another analyst who back on April 10th predicted they'd be back open by June 1st. Bottom line is nobody has any idea currently when they will re-open. If you hear otherwise it's just someone's opinion.

Analysts know *nothing*. I promise. They are paid to read the tea leaves and in the case of Disney, WDWMagic and Micechat, and place an occasional call to Lowell Singer who if he's doing his job won't tell them jack, and then make mostly un-educated guesses. And "may not"is the dead giveaway.

Can’t this go into the existing threads?

The main thread was closed last night...

 

[Disneytrippin']

Disney will reopen this year. According to healthdata.org Florida has a projected date to ease social distancing with the date of June 14th. According to the states phased plan once Disneyworld reopens it will be to Florida residents only. After they test that out then others will be invited to vacation. I believe Disneyworld will reopen in July. What that looks like I can only speculate. But, there is no way parks could hold off re opening until 2021. Its already been noted that Disney is ahead of the curve. For fun I will just guess July 20th.

 

[PetePanMan]

Interesting perspective from an experienced business analyst. Disney will be concerned about impacts on their brand re: reduced quality of experience, potential of opening and then having to close again in future, and reputation impacts if people come and get sick. With reduced guests and likely significantly greater staff and other costs, they may also choose to wait for when it may be more profitable with fewer risks.

 

[anthony2k7]

Disney will reopen this year. According to healthdata.org Florida has a projected date to ease social distancing with the date of June 14th. According to the states phased plan once Disneyworld reopens it will be to Florida residents only. After they test that out then others will be invited to vacation. I believe Disneyworld will reopen in July. What that looks like I can only speculate. But, there is no way parks could hold off re opening until 2021. Its already been noted that Disney is ahead of the curve. For fun I will just guess July 20th.

"After June 14, 2020, relaxing social distancing may be possible with containment strategies that include testing, contact tracing, isolation, and limiting gathering size"

 

[GeorgiaHoo]

"After June 14, 2020, relaxing social distancing may be possible with containment strategies that include testing, contact tracing, isolation, and limiting gathering size"

Exactly. And none of those things works for Disney.

 

[OKW Lover]

I just heard on a national news channel that there was a big chance Disney might not open parks until 2021, has anyone else heard this?

Sounds more like a click-bait story. I think there is a "big chance" that they are wrong.

 

[DavidHobart]

I realize that WDW is not NYC. However, Disney does rely on massive amounts of national and international tourists to make their profit.

Have you been to a Disney After Hours event? Disney can have positive cash flow with shockingly low attendance.

 

[Luxurious_Lumiere]

Have you been to a Disney After Hours event? Disney can have positive cash flow with shockingly low attendance.

I don't see that correlating. After Hours events are an additional ticketed item after the parks already have a full day of ticket holders.

 

[Disneytrippin']

I would like to note that during my trip to Disneyworld in 2017 I got a cold on the plane. I got over it and then got violently sick on my second to last day. I lost a day at the parks and spent the day vomiting non stop from the time I woke up til 9 p.m. All day on the bathroom floor. No joke. It was violent. So, no matter how things are perceived as safe there is always something that you can catch at Disney. I e. the famous Disney rash.

 

[mshanson3121]

I would say that would be a "worst cases scenario". If it happens, I don't see Disney as a company recovering. They would stop paying cast members benefits, they would either have to sell off assets or take on huge debt.

Just skimming, so may be asking something already discussed, but didn't they just take on $13B in debt? How much more can they take on and survive?

 

[CastAStone]

Just skimming, so may be asking something already discussed, but didn't they just take on $13B in debt? How much more can they take on and survive?

They took on $7.2bn in debt plus they secured a $5bn credit line which is not the same thing as debt, although it does reduce their borrowing capacity.

On their last quarterly report they had room to take on about $80bn in debt. So about $67bn more.

$7.2bn plus a $5bn credit line should last them much of the year. Best as I could figure from their 10K, they can last 3-6 years in the current state, depending how much they can cut costs. Longer if they start selling off parts.

 

[Pickle Rick]

I’m one of those people who would be considered “negative” here because i don’t think Disney will open up anything in May or June, however I definitely don’t believe it will be in 2021 either. I’m leaning towards a “soft opening” in July with maybe Springs and 1 or 2 parks, with much lower capacity and lots of restrictions of course. I’m also not convinced they will open up resorts before the parks either.