Disney parks closed until 2021?

[Disneytrippin']

I would like to note that during my trip to Disneyworld in 2017 I got a cold on the plane. I got over it and then got violently sick on my second to last day. I lost a day at the parks and spent the day vomiting monstop from the time I woke up until 9 p.m. All day on the bathroom floor. No joke. It was violent. So, no matter how things are perceived as safe there is always something that you can catch at Disney. i.e.. the famous Disney rash.

 

[Jfldis]

Would not surprise me. 1) risk va reward: too much uncertainty right now. Big expense to reataff, clean, install new procedures/protocols. Then they have to shut down again or bookings are down due to fear or lack of interest in modified experiences. 2) people have already rescheduled to June 1. Is it likely to happen? Debatable at best. So now they have to push back. So they say August 1. People rebook again. Then Aug 1 does not happen. More ticked off customers. Setting a date further out makes hitting the date more plausible. It’s like how when a flight gets bumped the airline keeps bumping the same fliers rather than bumping down the line. The original customers are ticked but you did not po any others
I would add I am rooting hard to be wrong here. Have a rescheduled trip booked end of August and really hope we can go. But not hopeful...

 

[DavidHobart]

I don't see that correlating. After Hours events are an additional ticketed item after the parks already have a full day of ticket holders.

In reasoning about these things it's often helpful to think about marginal impacts. If there were no After Hours that day, there would have been no incremental costs to staffing it, and no incremental revenues from having it. That is, from a cash flow perspective, it more than paid for itself. QED.

 

[tlmadden73]

Posted this on the news thread, but I read an article stating that a bunch of restaurants and attractions are going to open in Pigeon Forge, TN starting May 1st. There is a theme park there (Dollywood), but no word on when/if or how it is opening.

Would be a good litmus test to see how the public reacts to these things opening back and how they handle things

 

[JayhawkCruiser]

There’s as much basis for an analyst predicting January 2021 as there is for those picking June 1st - arguably less. Right or wrong you’re probably going to see Disney Springs open late next month or early June, followed by at least MK in June or July. There’s zero incentive for Disney to stay closed until a vaccine is available if governments don’t mandate them to do so because 1) there’s no guarantee an effective vaccine will be ever be developed, and 2) we’ve recently had a pharmaceutical executive explain that the vaccine would have to be extremely powerful to provide long term immunity, otherwise we’ll be looking at annual vaccinations that will also be less effective similar to the annual flu vaccinations. Along with point two, there’s some evidence emerging that immunity after recovering only lasts for a matter of months, not years, which would put a huge dent in our hopes for herd immunity eventually, so Disney has no incentive to wait for this phase to open either. While this sounds grim, what you’ll see is the virus most likely will evolve to become less deadly as a means to survive. While that’s not a near term sigh of relief, we can at least hope that this isn’t a terror we have to deal with perpetually shutting down society in the event a vaccine never becomes developed.
Back to Disney World reopening, our governor will likely put as much pressure as he can to have them reopen closer to June than January. Again, not saying this is the right move, I’m just saying this is most likely given his views on virus mitigation vs economic impacts, his relationship with the President and his desires to reopen the economy, and the economic importance of Disney World for Florida tax revenue and employment. Regardless of when Disney opens, if you choose to visit please help mitigate your chances of getting or spreading the virus - wash your hands, sanitize them before rides, wash them again after rides, avoid getting boxed in tight spaces in gift shops and other areas, wash your hands again, avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth, and finally...wash your damn hands (especially before consuming any food)!

 

[Eric Smith]

There’s as much basis for an analyst predicting January 2021 as there is for those picking June 1st - arguably less. Right or wrong you’re probably going to see Disney Springs open late next month or early June, followed by at least MK in June or July. There’s zero incentive for Disney to stay closed until a vaccine is available if governments don’t mandate them to do so because 1) there’s no guarantee an effective vaccine will be ever be developed, and 2) we’ve recently had a pharmaceutical executive explain that the vaccine would have to be extremely powerful to provide long term immunity, otherwise we’ll be looking at annual vaccinations that will also be less effective similar to the annual flu vaccinations. Along with point two, there’s some evidence emerging that immunity after recovering only lasts for a matter of months, not years, which would put a huge dent in our hopes for herd immunity eventually, so Disney has no incentive to wait for this phase to open either. While this sounds grim, what you’ll see is the virus most likely will evolve to become less deadly as a means to survive. While that’s not a near term sigh of relief, we can at least hope that this isn’t a terror we have to deal with perpetually shutting down society in the event a vaccine never becomes developed.
Back to Disney World reopening, our governor will likely put as much pressure as he can to have them reopen closer to June than January. Again, not saying this is the right move, I’m just saying this is most likely given his views on virus mitigation vs economic impacts, his relationship with the President and his desires to reopen the economy, and the economic importance of Disney World for Florida tax revenue and employment. Regardless of when Disney opens, if you choose to visit please help mitigate your chances of getting or spreading the virus - wash your hands, sanitize them before rides, wash them again after rides, avoid getting boxed in tight spaces in gift shops and other areas, wash your hands again, avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth, and finally...wash your damn hands (especially before consuming any food)!

I feel like those preventative measures at the end of your comment can’t be understated. There’s going to have to be some level of personal responsibility in all this. Disney can’t fully protect everyone.

 

[Pickle Rick]

There’s as much basis for an analyst predicting January 2021 as there is for those picking June 1st - arguably less. Right or wrong you’re probably going to see Disney Springs open late next month or early June, followed by at least MK in June or July. There’s zero incentive for Disney to stay closed until a vaccine is available if governments don’t mandate them to do so because 1) there’s no guarantee an effective vaccine will be ever be developed, and 2) we’ve recently had a pharmaceutical executive explain that the vaccine would have to be extremely powerful to provide long term immunity, otherwise we’ll be looking at annual vaccinations that will also be less effective similar to the annual flu vaccinations. Along with point two, there’s some evidence emerging that immunity after recovering only lasts for a matter of months, not years, which would put a huge dent in our hopes for herd immunity eventually, so Disney has no incentive to wait for this phase to open either. While this sounds grim, what you’ll see is the virus most likely will evolve to become less deadly as a means to survive. While that’s not a near term sigh of relief, we can at least hope that this isn’t a terror we have to deal with perpetually shutting down society in the event a vaccine never becomes developed.
Back to Disney World reopening, our governor will likely put as much pressure as he can to have them reopen closer to June than January. Again, not saying this is the right move, I’m just saying this is most likely given his views on virus mitigation vs economic impacts, his relationship with the President and his desires to reopen the economy, and the economic importance of Disney World for Florida tax revenue and employment. Regardless of when Disney opens, if you choose to visit please help mitigate your chances of getting or spreading the virus - wash your hands, sanitize them before rides, wash them again after rides, avoid getting boxed in tight spaces in gift shops and other areas, wash your hands again, avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth, and finally...wash your damn hands (especially before consuming any food)!

A few execs in CA will be making the final decisions as to when and how WDW opens up, regardless of what politicians with an agenda want.

 

[JayhawkCruiser]

A few execs in CA will be making the final decisions as to when and how WDW opens up, regardless of what politicians with an agenda want.

I mean in theory yes, in practice political pressure is a real thing that goes both ways with politicians and corporations. Don’t forgot that the few execs in CA also answer to shareholders of a for profit business, who currently are seeing their investment taking a beating by being closed. Disney, how ever much we love them and hold them in high regard here on this board, will act in its own best economic interest.

 

[Pickle Rick]

I mean in theory yes, in practice political pressure is a real thing that goes both ways with politicians and corporations. Don’t forgot that the few execs in CA also answer to shareholders of a for profit business, who currently are seeing their investment taking a beating by being closed. Disney, how ever much we love them and hold them in high regard here on this board, will act in its own best economic interest.

They will also act in the interest of health and safety. I’d argue that they would lose more in re-opening too soon and risk shutting down again than waiting a bit longer to open up more safely.

 

[JayhawkCruiser]

They will also act in the interest of health and safety. I’d argue that they would lose more in re-opening too soon and risk shutting down again than waiting a bit longer to open up more safely.

If the local governments (Orange County and the State of Florida) give them the green light to open, they’ll open. It gives them cover. But the waiting a bit longer to open up more safely is really hard to define. What’s more safely? Waiting until there’s a cure that’s effective and readily available might be an option if it looks like one is on track to be released by this Fall. Waiting until we have ample testing and contact tracing in place is also a viable answer, again assuming we can do that by this fall. But if neither are looking like possibilities within a matter of a few months, I’m just erring on the side they’ll decide to open as soon as governments allow.

 

[Pickle Rick]

If the local governments (Orange County and the State of Florida) give them the green light to open, they’ll open. It gives them cover. But the waiting a bit longer to open up more safely is really hard to define. What’s more safely? Waiting until there’s a cure that’s effective and readily available might be an option if it looks like one is on track to be released by this Fall. Waiting until we have amble testing and contact tracing in place is also a viable answer, again assuming we can do that by this fall. But if neither are looking like possibilities within a matter of a few months, I’m just erring on the side they’ll decide to open as soon as governments allow.

Fair enough. I disagree, but we'll find out soon. I'm leaning towards a very strict July opening as of now, with only Springs, probably MK, and maybe one more park (DHS?) as a test run.

 

[JayhawkCruiser]

Fair enough. I disagree, but we'll find out soon. I'm leaning towards a very strict July opening as of now, with only Springs, probably MK, and maybe one more park (DHS?) as a test run.

Honestly I don’t know how they open at all without risking becoming a major source of spread period. I’m not even advocating they open in June. I’m just giving these predictions based on the context that I see going on here locally in Orange County and the tendencies of corporations in general - which admittedly this is unprecedented times so perhaps I’m being too cynical here.

 

[Pickle Rick]

Honestly I don’t know how they open at all without risking becoming a major source of spread period. I’m not even advocating they open in June. I’m just giving these predictions based on the context that I see going on here locally in Orange County and the tendencies of corporations in general - which admittedly this is unprecedented times so perhaps I’m being too cynical here.

We'll find out soon enough. Let's hope for the best. One of the biggest problems, IMO, is what happens if a cast member tests positive, has to self quarantine for 14 days, what about all the other cast members (and guests) he or she comes in contact with? Will they have to go in self quarantine for 14 days? That could end up being half of the staff in one particular location. The whole thing is a giant mess.

 

[wareagle57]

Has a test opening been discussed anywhere on here yet? I could see them taking a week or two AFTER the state gives them the green light to open and use that time to soft open it with CMs only and then phase in Florida residents.

 

[GeorgiaHoo]

If the local governments (Orange County and the State of Florida) give them the green light to open, they’ll open. It gives them cover. But the waiting a bit longer to open up more safely is really hard to define. What’s more safely? Waiting until there’s a cure that’s effective and readily available might be an option if it looks like one is on track to be released by this Fall. Waiting until we have ample testing and contact tracing in place is also a viable answer, again assuming we can do that by this fall. But if neither are looking like possibilities within a matter of a few months, I’m just erring on the side they’ll decide to open as soon as governments allow.

There's not going to be a vaccine until next year, and there will be surges in the virus between now and then. So Disney is going to have to determine if they think it is safe to open despite the risk. Social distancing is a fantasy at a place like Disney--it simply isn't going to happen. So people can go and risk getting sick or stay home (assuming Disney opens). Whenever Disney reopens, and I have no idea when that will be, but if it is before a vaccine then guests and CMs are going to get sick.

 

[LuvOrlando]

It's smart to protect the brand & probably easier to kick it all the way out and be the happy recipient of joy if it doesn't need to be that long than to have people lose money and vacation time if they have many postponements or need to absorb legal mess from being too quick to the draw. I am wondering if there are some kinds of pivots they can do to keep things moving and keep staff employed, like having employees dress up and facetime kids with character visits? Have characters read stories to would be visitors? Pair up cartoonists with families for once in a lifetime individual shorts? I would imagine the Imagineers could find inventive ways to do Disney at a distance... so much bored creative energy must be busting at the seams.

 

[anthony2k7]

Has a test opening been discussed anywhere on here yet? I could see them taking a week or two AFTER the state gives them the green light to open and use that time to soft open it with CMs only and then phase in Florida residents.

Good point. Even when bringing CMs back in there will be several weeks of training na practice of new processes to go though - even for DS.

 

[North of Mouse]

I just heard on a national news channel that there was a big chance Disney might not open parks until 2021, has anyone else heard this?

Yes, I heard it too from another source also, but it was word of mouth so cannot point anyone to a source. I, too, in my heart feel the same.
Seeing first hand from family in the health care, plus friends on the front lines, this virus has hardly reached a peak yet, and definitely hasn't leveled off, or declined. It ebbs and flows in different areas, but over all in the states, we're very much still fighting the battle.

The very nature of what Disney (and other theme parks) is (crowds, lines, etc.) would make it very difficult for them to make a way to open as things are now.

 

[Sandiz08]

I don't think it will stay closed to 2021. I'm leaning towards July now, with soft opening in June. Our local school district just sent out graduation ceremony dates for late July.

 

[Betty Rohrer]

Posted this on the news thread, but I read an article stating that a bunch of restaurants and attractions are going to open in Pigeon Forge, TN starting May 1st. There is a theme park there (Dollywood), but no word on when/if or how it is opening.

Would be a good litmus test to see how the public reacts to these things opening back and how they handle things

have not hears anything from my friends that work at Dollywood about when opening. the opens that I have read about opening in Pigeon Forge are nonDollywood related