Okay... phew... what a read... I'm going to make a generalized reply, and then possibly go back and identify more specific replies.
First off, for those who either don't know me, or don't know my background... My name is Tyler, and I've worked for Disney Transport for the past 2.5 years. I pretty much hang out on the Transportation board only, so that's why I'm a lil late with this discussion.
At any rate, I've worked both in Monorail and Bus operations, and am well versed on the ins and outs of our Mass Transportation System. In addition to all this, I am also going to school, to eventually go into the Transportation Systems Planning & Design field. Although I do not have my degree yet, and am not an engineer, I do posess a lot of real world knowledge about Disney's current transportation system. One advantage that I have... I am there EVERY DAY... I see the backstage happenings. I see how things work. I see what y'all don't see. And in case you haven't noticed, I have a very strong passion for what I do.
In regards to what guests want... They really don't care about the Monorail. Then what do they want? Quick, fast, efficient transportation from Point A to Point B. No stops, no connections, no transfers. No fuss, no muss. They'd PREFER it to be via monorail, however, throw in a transfer for the Monorail, and the majority of guests would prefer to take the faster, and direct bus. I cannot tell you how many people complained to me about the transfer at the TTC to get to Epcot. "Can't we take a direct bus?" was a common question. In reality, the actual transfer process is a very confusing thing for many people. You really would be surprised. And I'm not talking about foreigners who don't speak English... I'm talking about your average Joe and Jane Smith.
Any ideal transportation system for Disney should include
ZERO transfers for major locations. The time it takes to get from resort to theme park (and reverse) should be no longer than 20 minutes travel time. As it stands now... to go from Grand Floridian to Epcot via monorail can take almost 25-30 minutes, depending on the status of the beams. There is no bus route that exceeds much more than 20 minutes ride time. The Epcot Resorts with AK comes close... and perhaps with DTD it might run up to 23 minutes... but it's within reason. At night during the peak rush, they split Boardwalk, so that alleviates that problem there.
A few folks mentioned what we call Environmentality. Disney actually has experimented with alternative fuel busses. However, at this time, Fuel Cell and CNG bus technology is NOT very reliable. It's extremely expensive, and breaks down frequently. Especially in the Florida climate with the abuse that daily service at Disney would inflict.
In reality... today's Diesel engine is 80% cleaner burning than one of just a few years ago. In fact, they are just as clean burning as a Compressed Natural Gas powered bus. Not to mention, they're cheaper, more fuel efficient, and pretty much all heavy duty diesel engines are rock solid reliable.
Disney currently has 265 busses in guest service. The 71 new busses that we have received all use cleaner burning ultra low sulfer diesel fuel, and have low emission engines. 11 of our older busses also have low emission engines. The rest of our busses have older engines in them, but we are in the process of replacing them with low-emission versions. Very few of our busses "spew black smoke" as some folks say.
Back to Monorails... they do require an enormous amount of energy to power those trains. Those buss bars hold 600 volts of DC power, and each train can draw in excess of 1700 amps at any given moment. Although you may not see it, I'd imagine there might be some smog at the power plant used to generate that power.
Going back to Monorail Expansion... let's now focus on COST. A lot of folks blame the cheapness on Eisner. Well, let's examine this here from a business perspective, since WDW is a business.
Cost per mile: $98m-$107m per mile. This number is not exaggerated, but rather the actual cost per mile for the new Las Vegas monorail which uses the same exact beamways as Disney.
Cost per train: $25m. (The cost for a Bombardier MVI four-car train is $17m. Disney uses 6 cars. At an estimated $4m per extra car, $25m is a safe estimate.)
Plus... don't forget switch beams, an extra maintenance shop area, and stations. Now, as you can see, this is getting pretty expensive, very quickly. And don't forget, Monorails are NON-REVENUE GENERATING... So, where is all this money going to come from? The resorts it services.
So what resort is it going to service? The All-Stars are the busiest... however, they also have the cheapest rooms. No money there. What about Caribbean Beach? But then... why pay $300/night for a Monorail Resort when you can have one for $100/night.
Now we have to think about Logistics. Let's not forget these resorts were not designed to handle monorail beams and stations. If the Monorail goes to Caribbean Beach... how many stops? The bus makes seven stops, so that folks don't need to walk far. Realistically speaking, the Monorail would really only be able to make one, maybe two stops within the resort. That means LONG walks. Plus, where does it go? Will people have to transfer?
Now, lets say it hypothetically did make all seven stops... Hypothetically of course, just to prove a point. What if the train fills up at the 4th stop? What happens to the rest? They have to wait for the next train. Which also fills up. And the next one as well. After all, it is the morning rush. Dont think that will happen? Take a look at the Grand Floridian. I should know, I used to work that monorail station as my bidline. Seats fill up at the Contemporary, standing room fills up at Polynesian... and my guests had to try and squeeze on. Most of the time, they had to wait for the second train...
THAT is the problem with a fixed guideway system.
Disney is VERY UNIQUE with our guest traffic flow, which is why the bus system does work so well. It's very flexible. If a bus fills up, the next bus starts where the previous left off. It's that easy.
Having worked in Bus Operations... I can tell you, our system is gosh darned efficient. We move mass amounts of people in relatively short amounts of time. We run at 97-100% efficiency, which is pretty decent considering how many dispatches we do. Not perfect, but VERY close on the grand scale. A monorail cannot come close to what our busses do. (In fact, we often times supplement the Express monorail)
So, lets look back. Spending $500m - $1b on a system that would cause headaches, delays, and more problems... and will never fully recover the money associated with it. (For those of you in Boston... sounds like the Big Dig, eh? lol) Does it really make sense now?
Anyhoo... I need to get some sleep. I will write more when I am more coherant.