Cruise and Theme Park Operational Updates due to Coronavirus

[andyman8]

Well resorts/shops/restaurants come IF Disney increases its capacity. Otherwise, there is no need to open those if the "normal" amount of people aren't there.

I just don't know if they will have the things people truly want back by spring OR summer .. fireworks/parades/M&Gs, other shows. They are in a catch 22 with those. They only need those if they increase capacity, but if they increase capacity those type of attractions create very close crowds and it would be too hard to crowd control (except maybe the M&Gs).

It's not as simple of an equation as many might guess actually. It's not just about how many Guests are coming but about what Guests are coming. Right now, the "typical" Disney Guests (flying from out of state and staying for 6-nights/7 days) just aren't coming. Most of the Guests in the parks (especially now) are AP holders, locals, some drive-market Guests, and some DVC members. As a result, hotel occupancy at non-DVC resorts is just not up to where it needs to be, which is why you see hotels like YC and GF not opening select restaurants. There are brief periods of exception (like the week after Christmas) but WDW is not built to be a weekends and holidays destination. Even during those weekends and holidays, the parks aren't consistently selling out. One would expect -- at 35% capacity -- that every day in between Christmas and the New Year would've been sold out at all parks, but the reality was that maybe only two of those days were sold out across all the parks.

WDW just has too much infrastructure to be relatively empty most weekdays, so I'd argue that once they see more Guests staying in the resorts consistently (they aren't going to throw open the doors to tons of new shops and restaurants for one week only), you'll start to see more offerings. More resort Guests mean more Guests coming for out of town, which means longer stays (which, by definition, encompass weekdays).

So yes, capacity is a factor but first they need to be consistently meeting current capacity with Guests who are staying in their hotels. I think they'll be in a much better place in that regard by late spring or early summer. I'd also be stunned if they haven't raised capacity by the start of summer.

 

[tlmadden73]

I don't disagree. Where we live, the rule (legally enforced) is you must wear a mask outdoors only if you can't maintain 6' distance. Honestly not much of an issue here, it's Canada in winter

The problem with a place like Disney is - people aren't keeping their distance. When you get into queues, bottleneck zones etc... there are many, many reports of people not keeping 6' apart. So, while you may not need them walking down Main Street, you'd still need them in lines etc... And it's a lot easier to just make a blanket "Wear a mask" policy, than "You only have to wear it sometimes".

OH I get that you can't keep 6 feet apart. Disney can do what it wants. I just feel it will take a LOOONG time before people and businesses are comfortable enough to drop the masks .. even outside

 

[Pyotr]

Any word on Remy or the crepe place?

 

[MrsBooch]

So - anyway.
Has anyone noticed that more things are being added back to the menu's across WDW? I've seen several snippets here and there, enough to remark on it - the menu's are becoming more padded with offerings. That's always good and a good sign? Right??

 

[osufeth24]

Has there been any more rumors about peoplemover? I know about the testing. Just curious, I'll be in MK for my bday in less than 2 weeks, was hoping to be able to get on it

 

[Yooperroo]

WDW just has too much infrastructure to be relatively empty most weekdays, so I'd argue that once they see more Guests staying in the resorts consistently (they aren't going to throw open the doors to tons of new shops and restaurants for one week only), you'll start to see more offerings. More resort Guests mean more Guests coming for out of town, which means longer stays (which, by definition, encompass weekdays).

So yes, capacity is a factor but first they need to be consistently meeting current capacity with Guests who are staying in their hotels. I think they'll be in a much better place in that regard by late spring or early summer. I'd also be stunned if they haven't raised capacity by the start of summer.

Couldn't the argument be made that they will find themselves in a Catch-22 situation if this is their thinking? Disney won't bring back more offerings until their resorts fill, but their resorts won't fill until they bring more offerings.
Unless you are fanatic like us, most people won't fly in from out of state for 7 night stays without a full, or at least close to full offering, from Disney.
I think they need to have a more "If we build it they will come" approach in terms of opening more up by summer. If people are going to be ready to travel this summer, they aren't going to drop 5k on a Disney trip that still isn't completely open, when they could go on a cheaper vacation and get the whole experience.

 

[MrsBooch]

Couldn't the argument be made that they will find themselves in a Catch-22 situation if this is their thinking? Disney won't bring back more offerings until their resorts fill, but their resorts won't fill until they bring more offerings.
Unless you are fanatic like us, most people won't fly in from out of state for 7 night stays without a full, or at least close to full offering, from Disney.
I think they need to have a more "If we build it they will come" approach in terms of opening more up by summer. If people are going to be ready to travel this summer, they aren't going to drop 5k on a Disney trip that still isn't completely open, when they could go on a cheaper vacation and get the whole experience.

while i do agree with you - i have seen a lot of posts on various random Disney facebook groups from people that go like: "hey there, first post here just joined the group, i'm planning for a summer trip it will be my family's first time - what do we need to know" - TONS. lots of first timers and first timers aren't fanatics (yet).

What I think is happening is what we anticipated for months - travel comfort level is increasing relative to the availability and distribution of vaccines. People are still cautious so they're looking to go places that have successfully and consistently implemented safe ways to operate, places that have a consistent history of service, and places that appeal across age groups and demographics. Disney World fits the bill. So they don't really need to open that much more - people are starting to look and book. Which really, is good for everyone.

 

[AvidDisReader]

Did anyone notice the UBS analysis yesterday of Disney. They believe that the Parks are going to explode (attendance wise) in 2022 due to pent up demand. The sooner they can safely bring things back, the sooner people will return.

 

[jeffmw]

Couldn't the argument be made that they will find themselves in a Catch-22 situation if this is their thinking? Disney won't bring back more offerings until their resorts fill, but their resorts won't fill until they bring more offerings.
Unless you are fanatic like us, most people won't fly in from out of state for 7 night stays without a full, or at least close to full offering, from Disney.
I think they need to have a more "If we build it they will come" approach in terms of opening more up by summer. If people are going to be ready to travel this summer, they aren't going to drop 5k on a Disney trip that still isn't completely open, when they could go on a cheaper vacation and get the whole experience.

Your logic makes sense but I think you're over-estimating the number of people who think like we do and go through such painstaking analysis to decide whether we want to go to WDW. I think the average tourist family is really missing travel, and for all those people who always said they'd take their kids to WDW and have been putting it off for years, that would logically be a great way to celebrate the end of COVID hell.

And while some of those people will research and realize that there are no parades and fireworks, some may not care (or not realize what they're missing) and some simply aren't necessarily in-depth enough in their planning to discover that there's no Beauty & the Beast Live right now.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Couldn't the argument be made that they will find themselves in a Catch-22 situation if this is their thinking? Disney won't bring back more offerings until their resorts fill, but their resorts won't fill until they bring more offerings.
Unless you are fanatic like us, most people won't fly in from out of state for 7 night stays without a full, or at least close to full offering, from Disney.
I think they need to have a more "If we build it they will come" approach in terms of opening more up by summer. If people are going to be ready to travel this summer, they aren't going to drop 5k on a Disney trip that still isn't completely open, when they could go on a cheaper vacation and get the whole experience.

I think there are two strategies:
- bring a lot of stuff back to bring in the most number of people (so maximum profits driven by increasing revenue)
- keep offerings low but hope a sufficient number of people come anyway (so maximum profits by keeping expense low)

Disney seems to be going with the 2nd thinking there is sufficient demand from the die hards and those that have a pent up desire to travel and are more willing to travel now/soon/summer despite those lower offerings.

Then as demand surpasses capacity consistently they will increase offerings to increase capacity but only then (seeing start of that with the plexiglass to increase capacity on rides and then with announcing Festival of Lion King coming back)

 

[mattpeto]

Instead of masks, I'd rather speculate how Disney is going to adjust the capacity limits.

These are the resorts re-opening dates:

March 22, 2021	Disney's All-Star Movies Resort
May 30, 2021	Disney’s Beach Club Resort
June 6, 2021	Disney’s Wilderness Lodge
Summer 2021	Disney's Polynesian Village Resort

Disney is not planning to stay at 35%.

Disney is opening Blizzard Beach in March. All Stars Movies has 1920 rooms and is opening in late March. Opening a water park should help offset the total capacity at the parks a bit. My guess is Disney will increase the capacity to 40% within a couple of months.

On to the summer batch: BC (583 rooms), WL (430) and PV (479) make up a total of 1492 rooms. Each resort reopening will continue slowly increasing the capacity. They can offset this by a little bit by re-opening Typhoon Lagoon.

By the time summer is coming to an end, ~3400 more rooms will be opened. I can't see how capacity stays at 35%-40%.

So we back to my old-age argument, how is Disney going to continue promoting social distancing at higher capacity percentages. My answer is: they can't. There isn't enough space.

 

[Leigh L]

while i do agree with you - i have seen a lot of posts on various random Disney facebook groups from people that go like: "hey there, first post here just joined the group, i'm planning for a summer trip it will be my family's first time - what do we need to know" - TONS. lots of first timers and first timers aren't fanatics (yet).

What I think is happening is what we anticipated for months - travel comfort level is increasing relative to the availability and distribution of vaccines. People are still cautious so they're looking to go places that have successfully and consistently implemented safe ways to operate, places that have a consistent history of service, and places that appeal across age groups and demographics. Disney World fits the bill. So they don't really need to open that much more - people are starting to look and book. Which really, is good for everyone.

I tend to agree. We were in the parks last week. Saw numerous first visit buttons. We also spoke with a few first-timers and saw others that were not regular park-goers. Although, it seemed common for people to not know some things were closed. A couple of examples - I heard one man who was definitely familiar with the parks telling a first-time family on the bus to make sure they "don't miss Laugh Floor" and another woman asking a CM at Epcot if there would be fireworks tonight.

 

[rpb718]

Did anyone notice the UBS analysis yesterday of Disney. They believe that the Parks are going to explode (attendance wise) in 2022 due to pent up demand. The sooner they can safely bring things back, the sooner people will return.

I would fully expect the parks to explode in 2022. As for WDW resorts, they'll need help for those to explode. Pretty much all they have now as a perk is 30 minute early entry - and at the moment that reportedly doesn't even start until October 2021. I'm hoping by then they would have announced additional perks and/or discounts and/or DDP for WDW resort package stays to look forward to if not by October then in 2022. The downside of WDW resorts not selling well means more business for all those non-WDW hotels, which could start driving those prices up due to supply and demand. Who know, that could be part of their endgame - allow the market to drive prices up for non-WDW accommodations in an effort to shorten the gap between WDW resort prices and non-WDW resort prices.

 

[C&Jx2]

I would fully expect the parks to explode in 2022. As for WDW resorts, they'll need help for those to explode. Pretty much all they have now as a perk is 30 minute early entry - and at the moment that reportedly doesn't even start until October 2021. I'm hoping by then they would have announced additional perks and/or discounts and/or DDP for WDW resort package stays to look forward to if not by October then in 2022. The downside of WDW resorts not selling well means more business for all those non-WDW hotels, which could start driving those prices up due to supply and demand. Who know, that could be part of their endgame - allow the market to drive prices up for non-WDW accommodations in an effort to shorten the gap between WDW resort prices and non-WDW resort prices.

A woman on a Facebook group I follow said the early entry started last week. I don’t know if that is true or not, just sharing what I read.

 

[rteetz]

A woman on a Facebook group I follow said the early entry started last week. I don’t know if that is true or not, just sharing what I read.

Early entry has been going on for eternity essentially. It has not officially started as of yet.

 

[tlmadden73]

Couldn't the argument be made that they will find themselves in a Catch-22 situation if this is their thinking? Disney won't bring back more offerings until their resorts fill, but their resorts won't fill until they bring more offerings.
Unless you are fanatic like us, most people won't fly in from out of state for 7 night stays without a full, or at least close to full offering, from Disney.
I think they need to have a more "If we build it they will come" approach in terms of opening more up by summer. If people are going to be ready to travel this summer, they aren't going to drop 5k on a Disney trip that still isn't completely open, when they could go on a cheaper vacation and get the whole experience.

Agree -- I don't think discounts will be enough .. unless they do some really steep discounts or deals. (And the free two days discount is pretty close).

I am a fanatic and within driving distance (9 hours) and I opted to postpone a week long trip (supposed to be happening this week) for another 60 days out just because I felt it wasn't "worth" it yet. Not enough of an "escape" (didn't want to be constantly on high alert about wearing masks (or more importantly worried about the kids)) .. didn't want to deal with longer lines, less offerings, no M&Gs for the kids, etc.

I postponed the trip for 60 more days .. and I am willing to go in the spring (at a significantly more cost) if things are more normal. But .. my guess is not much will change except one water park being open and another hotel --- so I will postpone that trip as well.

At this point . .I am looking it to be normal enough to make starting an AP year worth it (which I have, just haven't activated).

 

[TheMaxRebo]

A woman on a Facebook group I follow said the early entry started last week. I don’t know if that is true or not, just sharing what I read.

Early entry has been going on for eternity essentially. It has not officially started as of yet.

Yeah, people have been let into the parks early ever since they reopened ...

... It really is more stopping offsite people from entering early vs allowing onsite guests to enter early that will be the "perk" - and that hasn't started yet

 

[Sarahslay]

So - anyway.
Has anyone noticed that more things are being added back to the menu's across WDW? I've seen several snippets here and there, enough to remark on it - the menu's are becoming more padded with offerings. That's always good and a good sign? Right??

I think it was mostly a supply chain issue before, and that is slowly getting better. I think they're also getting more comfortable with kitchen set ups now so feel confident adding more. I do enjoy seeing more options added, it was tough in the beginning there finding stuff for the whole family at restaurants like you could before.

 

[andyman8]

Just want to reiterate that I think sometimes we can put too much of an emphasis on the capacity number itself. If Disney were consistently hitting (reduced) capacity at all four parks, especially if that were coming from Resort Guests, you’d see way more hotels open.

Especially right now, it’s not a “supply” problem (i.e. space in the parks) but rather a “demand” problem in that there just aren’t enough people willing to make the trip. The resort reopenings and entertainment announcements are more, in my opinion, a product of forecasts for growing demand (as vaccine availability increases and brings public confidence up with it). Certainly, capacity will increase but Disney isn’t making some arbitrary decision of increasing capacity to x by x date. Over the last two or three months of 2020, they saw demand starting to close in on the 25% cap relatively consistently so they increased the cap. I’d expect the same process to play out again , but given what we’re seeing now, I don’t think that’s imminent (even by the All-Stars reopening).

Also, keep in mind once Epcot passes a “cap” of 50% capacity, there isn’t much of a difference from any historically “average” day at Epcot crowd-wise.

 

[yulilin3]

Yeah, people have been let into the parks early ever since they reopened ...

... It really is more stopping offsite people from entering early vs allowing onsite guests to enter early that will be the "perk" - and that hasn't started yet

and we still don't have a clear understanding on how it will work. they could basically let everyone in 30 minutes early but only let people staying on site to go on attractions, that's how they've done the EMM