Contracts drying up??

[tx911]

I truly do think this fall into winter is going to bring extraordinary deals...like can't resist prices

Anything in particular that makes you feel that way? Just upcoming dues?

I am on board the resale train now, although the very long wait between the purchase decision and points in account is off-putting. I wish there were a way to make it quicker, like inside of one month

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Anything in particular that makes you feel that way? Just upcoming dues?

I am on board the resale train now, although the very long wait between the purchase decision and points in account is off-putting. I wish there were a way to make it quicker, like inside of one month

Honestly I just see a lot of volatility in financial markets coupled with an economy still high in inflation and couple that with geo political uncertainty and an aging DVC population who have owned since the 90s and ready to move on with their contracts that have served them very well through the years and the downward trajectory we've seen DVC prices in the last few years...

Nothing concrete but I just feel a lot of these factors will play a role in getting ridiculously good prices soon.

 

[atthebeachclub]

Honestly I just see a lot of volatility in financial markets coupled with an economy still high in inflation and couple that with geo political uncertainty and an aging DVC population who have owned since the 90s and ready to move on with their contracts that have served them very well through the years and the downward trajectory we've seen DVC prices in the last few years...

Nothing concrete but I just feel a lot of these factors will play a role in getting ridiculously good prices soon.

I agree that this could be possible, especially for 2042 resorts (more likely to be owned by older individuals).

 

[Chili327]

Hmm, never really thought about making one just to see what fits in my UY.

I may need to make one… I’ll call it TX911.

@Sandisw since you deleted my post about the good search app, here is the info you've asked for:

The app name is: "DVC Resale"

From: DVC Resale Market (the sponsor of these boards)

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/buying/dvc-resale-market-app/

dvcforless.com is the other. Not sure what others were posted, but this one combines them all, not just one broker, so you don’t have to search around all the different brokers.

I truly do think this fall into winter is going to bring extraordinary deals...like can't resist prices

I agree, not sure how low, but lower for sure.

 

[Brian Noble]

an aging DVC population

Not just an aging population, but also a larger one.

At any given time, there is some probability that any particular owner wants to well. "Aging out" of the product is only one of those reasons. Moving across the country, getting a divorce, needing to care for a loved one long term, etc. etc. etc. These things all happen regularly.

But, the ownership base is larger every year. Is the demand for resale contracts also growing every year? It may have been, because the broker ecosystem has been advertising like mad to grow the population of "I might buy a resale DVC". Does that growth keep up with the growth in ownership base?

Eventually, it won't. When that happens, the resale market will feel it. There is still a vibrant rental ecosystem which will support prices beyond organic demand, but if Disney takes some of the steps that e.g. Wyndham has, that can dry up quickly.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I agree, not sure how low, but lower for sure.

Since there's no new news to talk about let's have some fun speculating on this! I'm making a new thread now

 

[tx911]

View attachment 883868

I'm honored!

 

[atthebeachclub]

Not just an aging population, but also a larger one.

At any given time, there is some probability that any particular owner wants to well. "Aging out" of the product is only one of those reasons. Moving across the country, getting a divorce, needing to care for a loved one long term, etc. etc. etc. These things all happen regularly.

But, the ownership base is larger every year. Is the demand for resale contracts also growing every year? It may have been, because the broker ecosystem has been advertising like mad to grow the population of "I might buy a resale DVC". Does that growth keep up with the growth in ownership base?

Eventually, it won't. When that happens, the resale market will feel it. There is still a vibrant rental ecosystem which will support prices beyond organic demand, but if Disney takes some of the steps that e.g. Wyndham has, that can dry up quickly.

Can you share more about what Wyndham has done? I am only familiar with DVC.

 

[Brian Noble]

They've taken several steps to cut down on what they refer to as "commercial renting." They are too numerous to list here, but they've put a dent in it, to the point that many of the major rental players have gotten out of the business.

 

[TheSnowWhite_]

Honestly I just see a lot of volatility in financial markets coupled with an economy still high in inflation and couple that with geo political uncertainty and an aging DVC population who have owned since the 90s and ready to move on with their contracts that have served them very well through the years and the downward trajectory we've seen DVC prices in the last few years...

Nothing concrete but I just feel a lot of these factors will play a role in getting ridiculously good prices soon.

I think a lot of families around America are tightening their spending with inflation. The costs of goods and food many families will think to just sell their contracts or rent their points out then go on their trips using dvc points. I think many people have lost a lot of money with the stock market tanking and this is all what the federal govt wants. I’m thinking of putting a pause on advertising my travels to Disney not to make other people jealous because people are without right now.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Hopefully this one I want sells quick.

Whew! It’s gone today. That was close.

 

[jolynne28]

I truly do think this fall into winter is going to bring extraordinary deals...like can't resist prices

Same. Please don't tell my husband.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Y’all are brave with your multiple use years!
I can’t wrap my mind around it.
I did think about doing Oct instead of Feb for CCV

I have 2 and Im afraid to branch out more than that so that’s why I set to show me only Feb and Dec except VGC… all those June VGC can be tempting.

 

[Brian Noble]

I think a lot of families around America are tightening their spending with inflation.

I'm not so sure about that. Right now, there's been a bit of a bifurcation in the consumer market. Upmarket consumers are not really feeling much of a pinch. Yes, food costs more, but that doesn't really matter to most of these folks. Inflation is an annoyance, but not something that would cause folks in this segment to fundamentally change their spending habits.

If you weren't budgeting month-to-month two years ago, you probably still aren't now. And I suspect that most DVC owners are in that camp.

I think many people have lost a lot of money with the stock market tanking

The stock market has not tanked. Even after Monday's sell-off, the market was still up in the upper-single-digits YTD.

Now, a significant market correction might change things. I don't mean what happened this past Friday/Monday, either, but something that pushes YTD returns down much closer to zero, and if the YTD returns in typical portfolios turn negative, then things might change.

this is all what the federal govt wants

I don't have any idea what this means, but it doesn't belong in this conversation.

 

[atthebeachclub]

I'm not so sure about that. Right now, there's been a bit of a bifurcation in the consumer market. Upmarket consumers are not really feeling much of a pinch. Yes, food costs more, but that doesn't really matter to most of these folks. Inflation is an annoyance, but not something that would cause folks in this segment to fundamentally change their spending habits.

If you weren't budgeting month-to-month two years ago, you probably still aren't now. And I suspect that most DVC owners are in that camp.


The stock market has not tanked. Even after Monday's sell-off, the market was still up in the upper-single-digits YTD.

Now, a significant market correction might change things. I don't mean what happened this past Friday/Monday, either, but something that pushes YTD returns down much closer to zero, and if the YTD returns in typical portfolios turn negative, then things might change.


I don't have any idea what this means, but it doesn't belong in this conversation.

I agree with every point you made here.

I also don’t think the stock market is a huge huge thing for most Americans. Nearly all my stocks are in inaccessible accounts: Roth IRA, 403b, 457b, or HSA. So what it does doesn’t matter much to me now. But I am up about 35% since October, which I think is absolutely wild. Up until recent pullbacks, the market has been on fire.

 

[Chili327]

I think many people have lost a lot of money with the stock market tanking and this is all what the federal govt wants

Why would the govt want that?

 

[VGCgroupie]

I don't have any idea what this means, but it doesn't belong in this conversation.

I don’t think she was meaning to get political. I believe she means what has been stated by the government many times, they want consumers to spend less money to bring down inflation.

 

[tx911]

I don’t think she was meaning to get political. I believe she means what has been stated by the government many times, they want consumers to spend less money to bring down inflation.

I'm no economist, but wouldn't everyone spending less money be very bad for the economy?

 

[VGCgroupie]

I'm no economist, but wouldn't everyone spending less money be very bad for the economy?

Yeah seems like commons sense, but evidently thats the goal.

 

[Brian Noble]

Everyone spending a LOT less is a bad idea, more or less anytime. But, when spending is outpacing production, prices rise for no good reason, and that's (one cause of) inflation. In that situation, everyone (collectively) spending a LITTLE less is really good.

It's like the Three Bears: "That economy's growth is too high!" <inflationary>. "This economy's growth is too low!" <recession> "This economy is just right." <soft landing>.

But, those changes are collective, across the entire economy. That's not the same as "everyone individually spends less."