Cases rising or dropping by you?

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Oh I think gatherings are causing most of the spread but sadly many assume once schools are open that it is safe to gather. "They are hanging out together in school so why shouldn't Johnny go to Billy's sleepover party? Johnny is already exposed..."

Though that is not the fault of the school being open by the mere fact of it being open. When people say that it's because they become part of the same cohort and thus continual exposure, whether at school or elsewhere, is why you see the risk being lower. If Johnny and Billy were both remote and thus never attended school their parents could still say "yeah you can be in the same social circle/cohort". Truly I think parents see that their kid is friends with so and so already and allow them to see each other. If you haven't allowed your kid to see their friends, regardless of school being in session or not, in nearly 8 months you're probably the minority at this point.

To give some stats the local news just covered one of the large districts in the area which is looking for guidance from the County Health Department due to community spread being high. The majority, though not all, parents want their kids in schools in my area. Anyways the school district had approximately 27,000 students has 315 students presently in isolation (be it that they are positive or have symptoms). 53 staff are as well. Less than 6 cases are from either the school or extracurricular activity. According to the County Health director, presently no outbreaks (defined by X number of cases traced to one point) are related to a school within the county (just isolated cases here and there).

 

[focusondisney]

Oh I think gatherings are causing most of the spread but sadly many assume once schools are open that it is safe to gather. "They are hanging out together in school so why shouldn't Johnny go to Billy's sleepover party? Johnny is already exposed..."

Except Johnny likely had a mask on and distance at school and will not have either at the sleepover. The more things opened by us the more of a free for all it became. Bars are open so why not have a large wedding? And on it goes...

Yes- schools should be the priority. Over bars, over restaurants with indoor dining, over movie theaters, over gyms but sadly that is not what has happened in my state.

I think you’re right about people relaxing after schools open. People are now having larger gatherings over the state restrictions. One high school here is closed down for a week. 12 (Edit: superintendent now says over 20) students were at a large Halloween party that had a + case, so the school is going remote to try to prevent further spread. The school would get blamed if more +s occur, when it was the large private party that was the real cause.

The bars being open is what really baffles me. It seems all about the $$. State taxes for liquor sales must be really important for NY’s budget. Or the liquor business has a strong lobby. Bars were open in NY months before gyms & movie theaters were. They don’t seem that much less risky to me.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I think you’re right about people relaxing after schools open. People are now having larger gatherings over the state restrictions. One high school here is closed down for a week. 12 students were at a large Halloween party that had a + case, so the school is going remote to try to prevent further spread. The school would get blamed if more +s occur, when it was the large private party that was the real cause.

The bars being open is what really baffles me. It seems all about the $$. State taxes for liquor sales must be really important for NY’s budget. Or the liquor business has a strong lobby. Bars were open in NY months before gyms & movie theaters were. They don’t seem that much less risky to me.

People may say that verbally, and mean it, but it doesn't account for the place where schools are in fact NOT open or their grade level is fully virtual and not in-person at all (such is the case for more high schoolers than anything who are probably getting together the most though that is purely opinion-based on that particular aspect of getting together the most) and yet still have high community transmission. People have been having gatherings for months now, over the summer, into fall, etc.

I agree with the underlined though;. It's in part why I said we learn as we go.

 

[anniemae]

Oh I think gatherings are causing most of the spread but sadly many assume once schools are open that it is safe to gather. "They are hanging out together in school so why shouldn't Johnny go to Billy's sleepover party? Johnny is already exposed..."

Except Johnny likely had a mask on and distance at school and will not have either at the sleepover. The more things opened by us the more of a free for all it became. Bars are open so why not have a large wedding? And on it goes...

Yes- schools should be the priority. Over bars, over restaurants with indoor dining, over movie theaters, over gyms but sadly that is not what has happened in my state.

This is so true. Just yesterday I saw four kids from four different houses playing together in my neighborhood. None had masks on and they were "shoulder to shoulder" close. People are refusing to stop gathering, whether its a group of kids or adults. We know it's an issue but we just keep doing it unsafely (no masks, no distancing).

 

[dreamer17555]

Though that is not the fault of the school being open by the mere fact of it being open. When people say that it's because they become part of the same cohort and thus continual exposure, whether at school or elsewhere, is why you see the risk being lower. If Johnny and Billy were both remote and thus never attended school their parents could still say "yeah you can be in the same social circle/cohort". Truly I think parents see that their kid is friends with so and so already and allow them to see each other. If you haven't allowed your kid to see their friends, regardless of school being in session or not, in nearly 8 months you're probably the minority at this point.

I will say our family falls in the minority. My middle schooler hasn't seen his friends in person since March. My college student is a bit different because she lives in a dorm and has those friends. Already working on how to safely bring her home for the holidays which involves her limiting contact two weeks before coming home except the few in her pod who were positive last month for covid and will not likely be able to catch it again right away.

She was tested for antibodies which she has but who knows what good they will do or if accurate. As I said some of her pod caught it and despite being tested weekly my DD has always been negative. So it's a mystery.

But yes many of us are still limiting contact. And those who loosened up might want to rethink how large those bubbles really are, especially during the holidays.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I will say our family falls in the minority. My middle schooler hasn't seen his friends in person since March. My college student is a bit different because she lives in a dorm and has those friends. Already working on how to safely bring her home for the holidays which involves her limiting contact two weeks before coming home except the few in her pod who were positive last month for covid and will not likely be able to catch it again right away.

She was tested for antibodies which she has but who knows what good they will do or if accurate. As I said some of her pod caught it and despite being tested weekly my DD has always been negative. So it's a mystery.

But yes many of us are still limiting contact. And those who loosened up might want to rethink how large those bubbles really are, especially during the holidays.

I can't account for the people who will come and quote me and say "well I still haven't let my kids see my friends" (there's a thread for that anyways).

I didn't make a judgment comment about it just made a practical statement about it If this was spring a lot more people would say "well it's just a few weeks my kid will be okay" but as time dragged on for that changed.

As far as "many of us are still limiting contact". The numbers say otherwise. I'd say you're in the minority there as well. I think the larger truth is that at least some people are selective about their contacts (maybe seeing only their immediate family and close friends) but have not limited contact the same way they did in the Spring (where 6 feet apart, no indoor, no sharing of the food, and likely not even seeing close family and friends was really the way people were doing things).

As far as how large those bubbles are actually that's not necessarily as much of an issue as you would think. The mantra for a while has not been how many but the conditions the gathering occurred. 10 people at dinner with no masks indoor and 20 people at dinner outside with masks you might think 20 people is the problem but it's not as much as you'd think.

 

[fatmanatee]

I would also like to have actual info on hospitalizations that is reliable. Positive cases make everyone nervous, but it would help to know if these are people who are actively sick or if they just tested positive with no symptoms (for instance, if they had to test for travel or work, etc). Our school district in NY is very large but so far we have been very lucky. Kids only in school 2 days a week, but high school and middle school just started Monday. They had been home this whole time. Elementary has been hybrid for over a month.

We're expected to hit a new high in hospitalizations nationwide within the next week.

https://covidtracking.com/data

 

[KBoopaloo]

I would also like to have actual info on hospitalizations that is reliable. Positive cases make everyone nervous, but it would help to know if these are people who are actively sick or if they just tested positive with no symptoms (for instance, if they had to test for travel or work, etc). Our school district in NY is very large but so far we have been very lucky. Kids only in school 2 days a week, but high school and middle school just started Monday. They had been home this whole time. Elementary has been hybrid for over a month.

My understanding is that 60 or 61,000 was the high point for total COVID hospitalizations back in April. We are now at 59,000 and they have been going up by around 1000 a day since last week. So it’s bad.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1325963885778673664

 

[mi*vida*loca]

From what I’ve seen in my area I think a big reason the numbers are rising are due to people testing positive and still working or getting sick after living with someone who has tested positive and still working or still working after someone in their household has tested positive when they should be quarantining.

I’m in NJ. We had a pretty tight shutdown back in March. Lots of places closed. If you were essential plenty of people were still forced to use PTO or go negative. So plenty of people have no PTO left or barely any left and most people can’t afford to take two weeks off unpaid since most jobs won’t allow you to go negative now. So what are people going to do? Not get tested and come to work sick if you get a minor covid case. And if someone in your home tests positive you don’t give the tracers any info on who you live with.

I know two people this week (they don’t work at my company) who live with people who tested positive. They got sick. They did not get tested and are working. Neither will get paid if they are off for two weeks. One is on a point system and after calling out for two weeks she’ll practically get fired.

I work for a hospital. We had to use 8-24 hours of PTO a week from April-July. Plenty of people have zero left in their banks or barely any left. If we have to quarantine or test positive we have to use PTO (and you can’t go negative) unless we can prove we got covid from work which is nearly impossible to do. So basically you’ll be left unpaid. Yet my friend tested positive and her 17 year old son works at chic fil a. He has to quarantine and they are paying him his usual working hours.

 

[BlueStarryHat]

All of the schools in my aunt's district (New Jersey) are closing one by one. Another one closed today, leaving only two schools still open and one of them has a positive case. My aunt's union contract says she's paid until June whether school is open or not, so we are good for now. I think our governor is very close to shutting down at least the schools until after the Holidays.

As to the Holidays, we are sticking close to home for Thanksgiving. I usually go to my sister's in the city but I'm staying home this year. However, my aunt is still planning the large family get-together in our finished basement on Christmas Eve. I've tried talking sense into her, telling her that these types of get-togethers have resulted in multiple deaths in families, to no avail. Christmas Eve I will stay up here in my room, but I still have to live with four of the people who will be there afterwards. I was told that since I had it I'm probably immune...which is not at all certain.

 

[mi*vida*loca]

All of the schools in my aunt's district (New Jersey) are closing one by one. Another one closed today, leaving only two schools still open and one of them has a positive case. My aunt's union contract says she's paid until June whether school is open or not, so we are good for now. I think our governor is very close to shutting down at least the schools until after the Holidays.

As to the Holidays, we are sticking close to home for Thanksgiving. I usually go to my sister's in the city but I'm staying home this year. However, my aunt is still planning the large family get-together in our finished basement on Christmas Eve. I've tried talking sense into her, telling her that these types of get-togethers have resulted in multiple deaths in families, to no avail. Christmas Eve I will stay up here in my room, but I still have to live with four of the people who will be there afterwards. I was told that since I had it I'm probably immune...which is not at all certain.

Our school closed for two weeks due to 3 positives. They reopened yesterday.

Another school in the area is closing due to lots of positives but they’re going to reopen the Monday after thanksgiving. I don’t know if that will be a good idea. Right after travel and huge gatherings.

 

[fatmanatee]

It's a weird situation here (also NJ). We got plowed in March, things have been settled since, but starting September they reopened indoor dining. It wasn't that busy early on but slowly but surely restaurants and bars have gotten busier, and starting in mid-October cases started picking up again. The mayor has been pretty adamant that this is due to small gatherings and not dining, but I'm not sure people buy it. The governor just announced new restrictions on dining and I wouldn't be surprised if things shift back to takeout only by the end of the month.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I don’t know if that will be a good idea. Right after travel and huge gatherings.

If anything I think a lot of schools should follow what a lot of Universities are doing which is going remote at Thanksgiving and finishing out the semester there. I think it's more that between Thanksgiving and Christmas it's only 1 month, with an up to 14 day time period in which symptoms begin there could be a lot of overlap there.

 

[godisney14]

This is so true. Just yesterday I saw four kids from four different houses playing together in my neighborhood. None had masks on and they were "shoulder to shoulder" close. People are refusing to stop gathering, whether its a group of kids or adults. We know it's an issue but we just keep doing it unsafely (no masks, no distancing).

I see this happening in my area every single day. Adults are masking because it's required. But, many parents of high school teenagers don't seem to care much that they just hang around as pre-COVID times. Every time I see a group of 2+ teenagers in public, none are masked and are pretty much hugging each other close. I can only assume these are the same group of parents that are wanting schools to reopen immediately.

 

[tvguy]

In my county, back to the tightest restrictions as of Noon today. Too many sick too many in the ICU too many not using common sense
https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article247085137.html

 

[bobbiwoz]

We have 30 new cases in our county today, and that’s only happened once before. Not good in Cape May county NJ.

 

[DeeBee3]

FYI for anyone interested in stats, from the CDC site - they have quite a variety of statistics, all sorts of breakdowns and forecasts. https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html

 

[Traveling on cc points]

Connecticut is at 6.7% positive today with 52 new hospitalizations since yesterday. This is the highest it’s been in a while, hoping it’s a fluke and the numbers will improve tomorrow.

 

[Dan Murphy]

Another stunner today...

Over 128,000 cases today for the US.

A few days ago they were talking maybe 200,000 by the end of the year. With that kind of daily leap, it could even be this week.

Another record for Illinois today, 12,623.

typo​

 

[Kitty 34]

Highest here ever today in Michigan!!!! We need to hunker down and hope for a vaccine really really soon.