Better future resale value?

[Frederic Civish]

In 15 years there is no way that Riviera will be selling anywhere close to BCV. Even SSR should be higher than BCV by then. With only 7 years left on the contract, it will be very simple for most people to figure out what owning BCV is worth compared to paying cash.

I agree. Once beach club drops below 15 years, people will definitely start paying attention, and once it drops below 10 years, people will just start doing the financial calculations of what it would cost to stay in a similar room for cash, for 10 years in a row, and that will quickly become the maximum price for Beach Club. And that price will drop year by year as the contract gets shorter.

I'm starting to think that Riviera Resale is going to come in around the price of Boardwalk or Beach Club right now. But it will separate from them as the other contracts get significantly shorter.

 

[Dean]

I think I read somewhere that it is deeded a certain way that they can't. I would imagine if they could, they would have.

I suspect at 5, 10 & 15 years Riviera will have the higher resale value and increasingly so as time goes on but at 15, absolutely Riviera assuming no extension for BCV or other 2042 resorts.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I'm going to continue to sit on my little soapbox and say:

If you buy Riviera, assume the capital costs are sunk.

If you buy a 2042 resort, assume the capital costs are sunk.

That way, if you need to sell, any proceeds are a bonus, not a failure to meet expectations.

The other O14 that aren't 2042, this might also be the best approach as well. As 2042 nears and the O14 start becoming the OLessThan14 and they lose trading partners while acquiring new owners at newer resorts who maybe want to trade in, things likely will get weird.

 

[Minniesgal]

I think this is a mute question as I agree older resorts will have a depressed value in 15 years people won't go from them to buying Riviera resale as there will be many other unrestricted options VGF, BLT, AKV, SSR, OKW, CCV, to name a few

 

[JasonMak2000]

I still think it's an interesting discussion to have. I was more or less posing the question from the perspective of someone considering adding on at one of those 2 resorts. I wouldn't attempt to discuss the merits of purchasing those resorts over any of the others 15 years from now. I 100% agree that dvc purchases should not be viewed as investments but as everyone says, you never know what the future holds and I think considering the possibility that you may need/want to sell is something you should be prepared for. With that in mind, since both of these resorts are significantly flawed from a resale perspective, I was curious what others thought would be the lesser of 2 evils.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I still think it's an interesting discussion to have. I was more or less posing the question from the perspective of someone considering adding on at one of those 2 resorts. I wouldn't attempt to discuss the merits of purchasing those resorts over any of the others 15 years from now. I 100% agree that dvc purchases should not be viewed as investments but as everyone says, you never know what the future holds and I think considering the possibility that you may need/want to sell is something you should be prepared for. With that in mind, since both of these resorts are significantly flawed from a resale perspective, I was curious what others thought would be the lesser of 2 evils.

My answer doesn't change, though. Don't buy either unless you can accept that they're a sunk cost, regardless of what life throws at you.

 

[JasonMak2000]

That's fine. I'm ok with that. But if that bonus does come, do you think it will be bigger at Riviera or Beach Club?

 

[JPKnapp]

once it drops below 10 years, people will just start doing the financial calculations of what it would cost to stay in a similar room for cash

I would actually pay MORE if I knew I was only locked in for 10 years. The only thing stopping me from buying DVC right now is my oldest of 3 is 10 and I don't know what our lifestyle will be 10+ years in the future.

 

[RamblinWreck]

I was referring to them comparing Riviera contract to Beach Club contract as if they were apples to apples. They aren't. If Beach Club had 50 years left, it would be at least $250 per point. Using years remaining to make your decision is fine but theres a reason resorts with far more years than BCV/BWV are fetching far less per point. If the value was all in years and not home resort, SSR wouldn't be going for $90 a point.

Sure, the value isn't all about the years remaining. But as fewer and fewer years remain on these contracts as time passes, it will become a much larger factor.

The math will also start to become very simple for people. "How much would it just cost me to rent a room every year from Disney over the next 6 years?" is a lot easier of a question to answer than having to factor in inflation over the next few decades to figure out what your true "break even" point is.

 

[katandmouse]

I would actually pay MORE if I knew I was only locked in for 10 years. The only thing stopping me from buying DVC right now is my oldest of 3 is 10 and I don't know what our lifestyle will be 10+ years in the future.

So this is exactly why the 2042 date doesn’t bother my family. Our kids are younger (5, 3, and a baby), and while we love Disney now and have all these trips we’d like to do while they grow up, I don’t know how they’ll feel about it as adults (or how we’ll feel when we’re 60). I’d rather add on later when we’re more certain we’d still want it. (Of course I say this, but I’m already planning which add ons...) And this thinking may probably best apply to families within a certain age range, and not really older or younger...

To the OP’s question, we bought BCV planning to hold it to the end, and calculating that we could afford the MFs through 2042. I would say don’t buy a 2042 resort at this point if you think you might have to sell it, unless you’d just want to dump it so as not to pay the MFs anymore.

RIV is a big question mark. I think whatever DVC does with the restrictions though will apply to all future resorts too, and by 2042 RIV’s resale value will at least be similar to Reflections and whatever other new resorts. Honestly I think all of DVC is a big question mark right now - with all of the recent changes and restrictions I wouldn’t count on rising resale prices for any resort.

 

[AdamsMum]

1. How many people will bet that DVC offers an extension or (maybe more likely) promotion on the “new” BCV/BWV to current owners there? What are the chances that is decided in 2035?

I'd be willing to bet against an extension (not that I wouldn't like that). I think it's killing them to wait out the remaining contract time. They had no idea of the popularity of BC/BW when they first opened them or the points structure would be much higher.

 

[RamblinWreck]

I'd be willing to bet against an extension (not that I wouldn't like that). I think it's killing them to wait out the remaining contract time. They had no idea of the popularity of BC/BW when they first opened them or the points structure would be much higher.

Not only that. They can't wait to restructure all of the contracts to be like Riviera's.

 

[JasonMak2000]

Hadn't thought of that but I think you are both exactly right. Good points.

 

[Frederic Civish]

Yeah, no way will Disney EVER allow another extension. In addition to the problems that were demonstrated by the OKW extension, things have now changed and Disney can't wait to get back Beach Club, Boardwalk and other properties, so that they can 'Riviera-ize' them.

 

[Jennifer Bowers]

Yeah, no way will Disney EVER allow another extension. In addition to the problems that were demonstrated by the OKW extension, things have now changed and Disney can't wait to get back Beach Club, Boardwalk and other properties, so that they can 'Riviera-ize' them.

I don't know... Disney is riding pretty high right now. Who knows what they would offer if a recession comes along and hurts attendance/sales... Especially with all of the new resorts they are building. They are really banking on striking while the iron is hot. It might fizzle out....

 

[Frederic Civish]

I don't know... Disney is riding pretty high right now. Who knows what they would offer if a recession comes along and hurts attendance/sales... Especially with all of the new resorts they are building. They are really banking on striking while the iron is hot. It might fizzle out....

Possible. But they would still need to find a way to overcome the OKW debacle, where some people took them up on it, others rejected it, and some people just kind of ignored it. Now the status of some of those who ignored it is in limbo. Some people think they have the extension because they never signed the Quitclaim deed.