Better future resale value?

[JasonMak2000]

In 15 years, which will have the better resale value: Riviera or Beach Club? One has resale restrictions and the other expires in 2042. Thoughts?

 

[Great3]

Wow, that's a good question. In 5 years, I lean towards Beach Club. 10 years, I would probably still lean towards Beach club. But in 15 years time, I will probably lean more towards Riviera. But that's just my guess, I am sure the future will surprise us somehow.

Great3

 

[sethschroeder]

There is currently 22 years left on Beach Club. That means there is going to be 7 years left 15 years from now. At that point I would expect all the 2042 resorts to be depressed in value in comparison to other resorts. Think about if right now Beach Club only had 7 years left and you could buy RIV for roughly the same price per point but could only stay at RIV, what would most people likely do?

Also could Disney put the resale restrictions form RIV on all the other resorts as well? Meaning even in 2 years time they could have a rule if you buy Beach Club resale you now can only stay at Beach Club. Or is there something against Disney being allowed to do this?

 

[stewart715]

There is currently 22 years left on Beach Club. That means there is going to be 7 years left 15 years from now. At that point I would expect all the 2042 resorts to be depressed in value in comparison to other resorts. Think about if right now Beach Club only had 7 years left and you could buy RIV for roughly the same price per point but could only stay at RIV, what would most people likely do?

Also could Disney put the resale restrictions form RIV on all the other resorts as well? Meaning even in 2 years time they could have a rule if you buy Beach Club resale you now can only stay at Beach Club. Or is there something against Disney being allowed to do this?

I think I read somewhere that it is deeded a certain way that they can't. I would imagine if they could, they would have.

 

[MickyLynn]

In 15 years you have 7 years of vacations left, or you have 35 years of vacations/vacation points you can rent out to pay for any resort you want. We really loved BWV but 2042 was already a factor in our decision.

I think the 20 year mark will be the tipping point for a lot of buyers. For the grandparents in those families, not so much. Its a big psychological hurdle at 20 (this disappears just when my kids have kids to bring) vs 48 (I can Uber to the Poly and slurp down Spikey Pineapples once a year until I die).

 

[MickyLynn]

I feel like I revealed too much at the end there.

 

[stewart715]

In 15 years you have 7 years of vacations left, or you have 35 years of vacations/vacation points you can rent out to pay for any resort you want. We really loved BWV but 2042 was already a factor in our decision.

I don't really understand this logic. You basically said "in a lot of years, you won't have as many years left."

Is 15 years not a long time?

 

[MickyLynn]

No. Not long at all.
Also, we're being asked to evaluate the choices as though 15 years has already elapsed.
Today, right now, do you want 7 years of vacations or do you want 35?
Thats the calculation people will be making. Maybe they'll offer an extension at the last minute. Maybe not. Do I risk that or do I take the guaranteed 35 years?

 

[stewart715]

No. Not long at all.
Also, we're being asked to evaluate the choices as though 15 years has already elapsed.
Today, right now, do you want 7 years of vacations or do you want 35?
Thats the calculation people will be making. Maybe they'll offer an extension at the last minute. Maybe not. Do I risk that or do I take the guaranteed 35 years?

I don't view it as a risk though. It is already priced with the years factored in. BoardWalk and Beach Club are some of the most sought after DVC properties. You're paying for 23 years. If there were 50 years of BoardWalk left, it would certainly be a lot higher. Some people view 23 years of BoardWalk A LOT better than 40 or so years of Saratoga Springs.

 

[stewart715]

Some people would rather get less years and stay exactly where they want. In regards to Riveria, we have no idea what the experience there will be like. We also don't know how much the resale value will be affected by the restrictions. It's possible Riviera never surpasses Beach Club or even BoardWalk until the very, very tail end.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

Also could Disney put the resale restrictions form RIV on all the other resorts as well? Meaning even in 2 years time they could have a rule if you buy Beach Club resale you now can only stay at Beach Club. Or is there something against Disney being allowed to do this?

Not easily.

Riviera is high risk for resale.

 

[MickyLynn]

The OP isn't talking about 23 years though. He's talking about 7.

I'll also say this- I was Riviera skeptic. On paper, none of it appealed to me. Then we did the tour. That room is amazeballs. I can't even tell you why I like it. They will have no trouble retaining a loyal folllowing.

 

[DougEMG]

In 15 years there is no way that Riviera will be selling anywhere close to BCV. Even SSR should be higher than BCV by then. With only 7 years left on the contract, it will be very simple for most people to figure out what owning BCV is worth compared to paying cash.

 

[toontoy]

Isn't the expiration date really 2041 since it expires at the end of January of 2042. So really it has 22 years left and after 15 would have 6 years.

 

[stewart715]

The OP isn't talking about 23 years though. He's talking about 7.

I'll also say this- I was Riviera skeptic. On paper, none of it appealed to me. Then we did the tour. That room is amazeballs. I can't even tell you why I like it. They will have no trouble retaining a loyal folllowing.

I was referring to them comparing Riviera contract to Beach Club contract as if they were apples to apples. They aren't. If Beach Club had 50 years left, it would be at least $250 per point. Using years remaining to make your decision is fine but theres a reason resorts with far more years than BCV/BWV are fetching far less per point. If the value was all in years and not home resort, SSR wouldn't be going for $90 a point.

 

[kniquy]

In 15 years, which will have the better resale value: Riviera or Beach Club? One has resale restrictions and the other expires in 2042. Thoughts?

Well in 15 years BC will only have 8 years left so very easy to say that Riveria will have a better value despite the restrictions. Riviera will still have 35 years left. At some point the BC and the other 2042 contracts will take a down tune in value/price. My guess it once it reaches having 10-15 years left. It might be a good buy for someone only looking for a short term commitment, but the value will decline

 

[katandmouse]

Initially I thought, well of course BCV will be lower in 15 years. And that will probably still be the case. But we should also consider supply and demand.

Supply: RIV has more than twice the number of points of BCV (about 6.7 million to 3 million). Just based on those numbers, there will be more RIV contracts on the market, driving prices down. Possibly fewer BCV owners would be looking to sell with only 7 years left, so that might keep prices up somewhat.

Demand: How many people would rather stay at BCV for 7 years (with the option of trading into other L14)? How many people would rather stay at only RIV for 35 years? How many people will avoid both?

I have some more curveballs:

1. How many people will bet that DVC offers an extension or (maybe more likely) promotion on the “new” BCV/BWV to current owners there? What are the chances that is decided in 2035? When were the plans for RIV and Reflections announced?

2. If BCV and BWV’s prices are depressed (seems likely), will the other L14 also lower in value since there would soon be fewer choices to trade into? And if we’re comparing RIV’s resale value to all L14, saying it’s worth less with no trading - would RIV’s value also become depressed as a result? Or would it stay at whatever value it lands at based on its inherent appeal on its own. I guess what I’m wondering is: will RIV’s resale value always correlate to the L14’s value, or will it be set independent of them?

3. In 15 years, how easy will it be to switch into different resorts at 7 months? And how easy will it be to stay at BCV and RIV if you don’t own there?

4. Will DVC lift or upcharge to lift RIV’s resale restrictions? I think whatever DVC does with the restrictions will apply to all future resorts now (but highly doubt they can restrict the L14 more than just among the L14, based on the contracts/resort agreements).

5. Will DVC introduce more restrictions or hurdles for renting - possibly making it harder for RIV resale owners to rent their points? I will say this: the RIV contract has more risk for owners than prior contracts (the ability for DVC to add/change restrictions for “certain owners”), although I’m sure DVC would try to apply any changes as broadly as possible.

6. Will DVC build a front gate Epcot resort? YC DVC? Other EP/HS resorts?

I think all those scenarios would influence demand/pricing for BCV and RIV, beyond the math (purchase price + MFs for years remaining would have to be less than paying cash rates).

In the end I see it as - BCV’s value will lower with only 7 years remaining, but how low will RIV’s value go?

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

DVC should always at least be about saving money over booking an onsite deluxe room onsite so I would hope that Riviera is at a higher resale than BCV with only 8-10 years left to go. If not then it would have to mean that BC room prices have risen off the charts!

 

[The Jackal]

I was referring to them comparing Riviera contract to Beach Club contract as if they were apples to apples. They aren't. If Beach Club had 50 years left, it would be at least $250 per point. Using years remaining to make your decision is fine but theres a reason resorts with far more years than BCV/BWV are fetching far less per point. If the value was all in years and not home resort, SSR wouldn't be going for $90 a point.

SSR is not selling for $90 a point. Very few passing at or near $99, BCV and BWV if they both had 34-37 years left would be no where near $250 per point, they would be most likely around $145-155. Those rooms are no where near the quality of GFV, PVB or even RIV. The rooms are nice, the only value is close to 2 parks. If SSR was in the place of Yacht and Beach Club the prices would be just as high.

 

[katandmouse]

SSR is not selling for $90 a point. Very few passing at or near $99, BCV and BWV if they both had 34-37 years left would be no where near $250 per point, they would be most likely around $145-155. Those rooms are no where near the quality of GFV, PVB or even RIV. The rooms are nice, the only value is close to 2 parks. If SSR was in the place of Yacht and Beach Club the prices would be just as high.

I don’t disagree, but I also wouldn’t discount the value of location and size of resort (and ROFR I guess). Yes, SSR is really passing for $100 these days, but BCV is passing at $140 or above now (with only 22-23 years left), and that’s similar to PVB and BLT! Actually I’m surprised VGF isn’t going for higher than $160+, to be more in line with VGC. Not sure why that’s the case (maybe just more choices in WDW/on the monorail?). Anyway if BCV and BWV had more years on the contract, I’d expect BWV to be similar to BLT & PVB, and BCV to VGF (based on those numbers, not rooms or amenities or anything). Which would match with what you said - with BWV going for around $145 and BCV around $155-160, resale. And the direct prices would probably be similar too, so maybe that’s where the $250 for BCV would come from?

...I don’t know where RIV will fall comparatively here.