Aulani or AKL now or wait?

[sleepymouse]

I am curious if he knows that 100 points would cost $9500 at Aulani and an estimated $22,500 at VDH….

Oh, he knows. I ended up focusing on Boulder Ridge for 150 points. I was thinking I could maybe pick those up for $15000. I told him that it would be at least double at VDH. He didn't care. He wants CA, and if VDH comes with restrictions like Riviera, that is the only way for us to go. I suggested 100 at BR and add 100 at VDH, but he still wants all VDH.

Also, please correct me if I misunderstand Riviera. I believe that if I buy resale points at a resort other than Riviera, I cannot use that at Riviera, correct? This is what I am thinking could be the case with VDH.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Oh, he knows. I ended up focusing on Boulder Ridge for 150 points. I was thinking I could maybe pick those up for $15000. I told him that it would be at least double at VDH. He didn't care. He wants CA, and if VDH comes with restrictions like Riviera, that is the only way for us to go. I suggested 100 at BR and add 100 at VDH, but he still wants all VDH.

Also, please correct me if I misunderstand Riviera. I believe that if I buy resale points at a resort other than Riviera, I cannot use that at Riviera, correct? This is what I am thinking could be the case with VDH.

I believe your understanding of Riviera is correct.

If he’s willing to go all DVH, then I’d say you have many fun family trips ahead of you.

 

[sleepymouse]

I believe your understanding of Riviera is correct.

If he’s willing to go all DVH, then I’d say you have many fun family trips ahead of you.

I sure hope we do. Nothing is set in stone though until DVH details roll out. My 12-year-old and myself are headed to DL in February. We will definitely be checking out construction.

 

[sleepymouse]

I kind of misread your original post the other night (been working long days recently). If you know you will own in the long run at more than one resort the value of buying a small contract at AUL or AKL to get you current member pricing could be a good strategy. The big wildcard that's hard to predict right now seems to be how much Disney is going to raise (or not raise) prices before VDH goes on sale. It seems like they are on a path to push prices up and unless they offer really strong discounts I think you might not get the best prices at VDH during the initial sale of it. I was tempted to consider buying 300 points at VDH if its discounted to the 180s a point (or perhaps 200 points in the 190s a point). If it's north of 210 a point, I'd rather dance with the ROFR monster and buy more VGC in the 240s.

There's a lot of benefit of having your points in one large pool (same resort and same UY) vs spread out unless you are able to get plenty of points to make them do well on their own. If you can do that, than you can also consider breaking up your UY to have more coverage of the calendar.

Hope all goes well in your quest to become a member.

Thanks for your advice. It will work out one way or another. It only took me 10 years to get the go ahead on purchasing DVC

 

[AstroBlasters]

Thanks for your advice. It will work out one way or another. It only took me 10 years to get the go ahead on purchasing DVC

FWIW, when I ran the math my break even for AUL at $95pp was 7.5years, for VGC at $260pp it was 16.5 years, and for VDH (assuming 8.11 dues pp) at $220pp it was 14 years or at $180pp it was 11 years.

This is not taking into account potential earnings on the cash or any future blue card benefits.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Sure, if you already have a lawyer and a trust.

But Hawaii has a lot more complication that that. A lot of them we just call dues (like property tax). But there's also transient tax and transfer tax and special title companies and all of that. Very different than Florida. Maybe that matters to you, maybe it doesn't.

Aulani's math is razor thin as SAP. All it takes is a big dues increase to kick it out of the top few, easily possible in a beachside resort in an expensive state, with a government that keeps adding tourism taxes. Maybe you feel that way about Florida, and your crystal ball is different than mine.

I’m not an expert on timeshares in Hawaii, but, with all due respect, I don’t think you are either. And in all these months, and maybe even years, of you posting this exact same message, I’ve never encountered a single incident mentioned on these boards of anyone ever facing any insurmountable issues regarding Hawaiian timeshare law or bureaucratic red tape. Personally, I never have. Have you? Have you ever even been to Aulani?

As an owner at Aulani, I do get annoyed by the $26 transient tax I have to pay per night for a one bedroom ocean view, which I’m paying right now because I’m currently here. But, please, it’s hardly the end of the world. The resort is arguably DVC’s best, the location, pools and lagoons/beaches are stunning, and as a west coaster it’s just as convenient for us to get here as WDW. The 11 month booking window is also particularly helpful in certain times of the year, such as June, when the resort is impossible to book otherwise.

I do agree with you that it’s a bad idea to buy Aulani for SAP, which is why we own at both CCV and VGF as well, but if you love visiting the resort and Hawaii, an Aulani purchase makes sense economically and with current point values is a great deal.

 

[NVDISFamily]

FWIW, when I ran the math my break even for AUL at $95pp was 7.5years, for VGC at $260pp it was 16.5 years, and for VDH (assuming 8.11 dues pp) at $220pp it was 14 years or at $180pp it was 11 years.

Was this calculation done using a studio at rack rates as a comparison/value analysis? A while back we had a conversation about value of DVC at VGC and it seems like the value goes way up if you are looking to get a 1BR or larger room vs studios. The consensus of the group was that you will get value owning VGC if you only want studios, but it might not be worth the downside of owning a timeshare vs just paying rack rates if/when you want to stay. On what I'm looking for most of the time, a 2BR, DVC offers an awesome value. I didn't do a break even analysis, but over 15 years of using points vs what the same room would cost me paying cash (assuming rack rate and dues hikes over the years) I net out a little over 200k ahead in 15 years. If you compare rack rates of Disneyland Hotel vs Grand Cal for suites (1BR, 2BR or higher) VGC is well worth the premium (downsides of resale and such aside). I know this is likely not the comparison most care about as DVC members tend to be studio focused, but for those who want the larger rooms, the value calculation likely is much better over time.

 

[RoseGold]

I’ve never encountered a single incident mentioned on these boards of anyone ever facing any insurmountable issues regarding Hawaiian timeshare law or bureaucratic red tape.

That isn't what I said. I said Hawaii timeshare law has shifted a lot over time and added a lot of costs and taxes. A lot of it we just call "dues." Hawaii has been very clear that they are applying a whole lot of different kinds of timeshare taxes, and they keep adding more and getting more creative. https://www.hawaiitourismauthority....-timeshare-quarterly-report-q3-2022-11-15.pdf IMO, it isn't in favor of owners. Maybe you disagree, or that doesn't matter to you. That's OK.

And yes, you have additional red tape. You have to use special title companies and do withholding from the sale and all of that because Hawaii also has a transfer tax, which they call a conveyance tax. In that sense, it's kind of like buying internationally. Sure, of course it's possible, but it's hassle. I have no idea if the title company did it right. And I don't want the Hawaii IRS in my life. That's the kind of thing I cared about as a potential buyer, maybe you don't.

I don't want to jump through these hoops for a razor thin margin on points I'm using in FL anyway, when FL properties are easier. Maybe you do. Do your own research and decide which system makes sense to you.

 

[nlenguyen]

I just talked to my husband, and we decided to wait for DLT to go on sale. He would much rather own in California than elsewhere. If DLT doesn't seem like a good idea after price and details released, I can always go back to scouring resale contracts at other resorts.

If you are willing to wait until resale contracts start up at VDH then you can do that. Just a warning though that those points can only be used at VDH, if anything, I would do AKV.
I am going back and forth on getting VDH myself, hoping i can make a stay there before I decide to purchase

 

[AstroBlasters]

Was this calculation done using a studio at rack rates as a comparison/value analysis? A while back we had a conversation about value of DVC at VGC and it seems like the value goes way up if you are looking to get a 1BR or larger room vs studios. The consensus of the group was that you will get value owning VGC if you only want studios, but it might not be worth the downside of owning a timeshare vs just paying rack rates if/when you want to stay. On what I'm looking for most of the time, a 2BR, DVC offers an awesome value. I didn't do a break even analysis, but over 15 years of using points vs what the same room would cost me paying cash (assuming rack rate and dues hikes over the years) I net out a little over 200k ahead in 15 years. If you compare rack rates of Disneyland Hotel vs Grand Cal for suites (1BR, 2BR or higher) VGC is well worth the premium (downsides of resale and such aside). I know this is likely not the comparison most care about as DVC members tend to be studio focused, but for those who want the larger rooms, the value calculation likely is much better over time.

Great questions and points!

The analysis was somewhat customized based on how my family travels. I compared a Parlor Suite at Aulani to a 2 bedroom OV. The Parlor suite is never in one of the “sale” categories.

I realize this isn’t completely fair to Aulani because I am comparing a one bedroom/1.5 bath to a 2 bedroom/ 2 bath with full kitchen. But, I wasn’t worried because anything less than 10 years was acceptable.

For VDH, I assumed a Riviera point chart. I also assumed a 25% discount on rack rate on GC and DH base rooms compared to studio costs.

The reason I used hotel rooms at VGC and VDH is that I wont pay for a suite/villa on the hotel side OR buy enough points at $220 VDH/ $260 VGC to pay for a 1 bedroom.

Now, if VGC goes back to 2018/2019 prices like AUL has OR if there is a VDH resale that has RIV resale pricing in the $130s…. that is a different conversation!

 

[Paul Stupin]

That isn't what I said. I said Hawaii timeshare law has shifted a lot over time and added a lot of costs and taxes. A lot of it we just call "dues." Hawaii has been very clear that they are applying a whole lot of different kinds of timeshare taxes, and they keep adding more and getting more creative. https://www.hawaiitourismauthority....-timeshare-quarterly-report-q3-2022-11-15.pdf IMO, it isn't in favor of owners. Maybe you disagree, or that doesn't matter to you. That's OK.

And yes, you have additional red tape. You have to use special title companies and do withholding from the sale and all of that because Hawaii also has a transfer tax, which they call a conveyance tax. In that sense, it's kind of like buying internationally. Sure, of course it's possible, but it's hassle. I have no idea if the title company did it right. And I don't want the Hawaii IRS in my life. That's the kind of thing I cared about as a potential buyer, maybe you don't.

I don't want to jump through these hoops for a razor thin margin on points I'm using in FL anyway, when FL properties are easier. Maybe you do. Do your own research and decide which system makes sense to you.

My purchase of Aulani points went as smoothly as all of my WDW resort points. Frankly, I didn't notice any additional fees, but perhaps they were on the sellers’ side. And in hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of pages of the ROFR thread, I’ve never read a single complaint about Aulani sellers facing issues. That’s why title companies exist. And, yes, title companies do make mistakes occasionally, but that applies to all WDW resort purchases as well. I have indeed dealt with Florida title companies screwing up, but the problems were quickly resolved.

And, yes, Aulani‘s dues are relatively high, but so what. I knew that going in, and that ain’t the end of the world either. The sky isn’t falling down in Hawaii. And I have done the math and the savings for us are huge. And, for us, the location, the accommodations, and everything the islands and this resort offer is beyond spectacular. That’s what matters, and in my opinion you’re losing sight of the forest for the trees.

Have you ever thought about temporarily suspending your ongoing mission to prevent anyone from buying Aulani and actually using some points to make the journey and check the place out? You might really like it. It might change your perspective.

 

[RoseGold]

We don't have to all have the same opinion. I don't want to mess with Hawaii's conveyance tax, so I'm not going to. But it does exist. I think people should be informed and make the decision that works for them, which might not be the same as my choice.

It isn't a personal attack on you that choice didn't work for me (and OP apparently) for an actual reason. There are a lot of reasons DVC in general is a bad pick for a lot of people as well.

 

[Paul Stupin]

We don't have to all have the same opinion. I don't want to mess with Hawaii's conveyance tax, so I'm not going to. But it does exist. I think people should be informed and make the decision that works for them, which might not be the same as my choice.

It isn't a personal attack on you that choice didn't work for me (and OP apparently) for an actual reason. There are a lot of reasons DVC in general is a bad pick for a lot of people as well.

I certainly don’t regard our discussion as a personal attack! And I hope you don’t either. My understanding is that Hawaii’s conveyance tax is about 7.5% of whatever profit you might realize upon selling, which I’m assuming the title company will deduct at time of sale. Whats the big deal? First of all, it’s not that much, and second of all, I’m not sure sellers in the short term, of any DVC property, will receive so much more than they paid that this tax will ever really amount to anything. And if I did make out with a profit, I‘d be pleased enough not to begrudge giving Hawaii 7.5%. I‘ve read the thread about the subject on this board, and, like most Aulani buyers, it did not strike me as apocalyptic.

Yes, Hawai’i is different that Florida. But they both need tourism. They’re different states with different rules.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I certainly don’t regard our discussion as a personal attack! And I hope you don’t either. My understanding is that Hawaii’s conveyance tax is about 7.5% of whatever profit you might realize upon selling, which I’m assuming the title company will deduct at time of sale. Whats the big deal? First of all, it’s not that much, and second of all, I’m not sure sellers in the short term, of any DVC property, will receive so much more than they paid that this tax will ever really amount to anything. And if I did make out with a profit, I‘d be pleased enough not to begrudge giving Hawaii 7.5%. I‘ve read the thread about the subject on this board, and, like most Aulani buyers, it did not strike me as apocalyptic.

Yes, Hawai’i is different that Florida. But they both need tourism. They’re different states with different rules.

Hawaii also caught the cooking of the books from DVC to encourage sales. Anyone who thinks that was the only location is head in the sand. FL? Nada. It was so blatant that it was commonly noted here that one should expect the dues to take a much higher increase after sales than during them.

And it's apparently not clear that I am complimenting Hawaii timeshare oversight. in stating Hawaii caught the longtime practice of DVC selling with artificially low dues when FL did not or perhaps even ignored. Also I have not stated this is going on today. After Aulani DVC pretty well stopped the practice of selling with artificially low dues. Hawaii called them on the practice. FL never did.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Hawaii also caught the cooking of the books from DVC to encourage sales. Anyone who thinks that was the only location is head in the sand. FL? Nada. It was so blatant that it was commonly noted here that one should expect the dues to take a much higher increase after sales than during them.

No matter what was “commonly noted,” I don’t think anyone can predict the rate of dues increases years down the line from now, after sales. And if you’re referring to the initial, unrealistic low dues that we’re offered when Aulani opened 13 years ago, all those DVC personnel were fired, and sales were stopped shortly after they began to recalibrate the dues structure, as you no doubt well know. What was discussed on these boards over a decade ago doesn’t strike me as either up to date or applicable, not that I’m expecting dues to go down anytime soon!

 

[RoseGold]

My understanding is that Hawaii’s conveyance tax is about 7.5% of whatever profit you might realize upon selling, which I’m assuming the title company will deduct at time of sale. Whats the big deal?

Sure, it's not a large amount. Neither is FIRPTA. But it requires withholding and paperwork, and the withholding is the seller responsibility. All of this is hassle and money and time and room for error. And FL has zilch.

I'm still surprised no one from the Aulani Disney team went to prison with how Disney handled this property. I'm not sure if that shows how good the Hawaii administrators are or how bad Disney is.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

No matter what was “commonly noted,” I don’t think anyone can predict the rate of dues increases years down the line from now, after sales. And if you’re referring to the initial, unrealistic low dues that we’re offered when Aulani opened 13 years ago, all those DVC personnel were fired, and sales were stopped shortly after they began to recalibrate the dues structure, as you no doubt well know. What was discussed on these boards over a decade ago doesn’t strike me as either up to date or applicable, not that I’m expecting dues to go down anytime soon!

Lol - my comment was meant to convey that Hawaii has better timeshare regulations. I'd count more on them vs FL. Owning a Hawaii timeshare is not any worse the FL and might be better from a consumer protection point but I only have DVC as a basis vs any great study on the subject.

 

[RoseGold]

Lol - my comment was meant to convey that Hawaii has better timeshare regulations.

I don't think the Aulani issue means that. Everyone would have figured it out eventually right?

And if Disney had done the same thing in FL, it would have the same consequence. It did in Vero, which I would argue wasn't as flagrant as Aulani.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Lol - my comment was meant to convey that Hawaii has better timeshare regulations. I'd count more on them vs FL. Owning a Hawaii timeshare is not any worse the FL and might be better from a consumer protection point but I only have DVC as a basis vs any great study on the subject.

My take away from your previous comment was that you believe Disney was going to somehow skyrocket dues once they sold their allocation.

 

[Sandisw]

I don't think the Aulani issue means that. Everyone would have figured it out eventually right?

And if Disney had done the same thing in FL, it would have the same consequence. It did in Vero, which I would argue wasn't as flagrant as Aulani.

The situation with Vero was they decided to cancel phase 2 and that is why there are subsidized dues because initial fees were determined based on a larger resort.

Or are you talking about something else?