Apparently I dislike FP+...alot

[flicx]

This report covers all of the significant attractions.

I don't think we're going to learn more with data from the Peoplemover and Universe of Energy.

Why not? These are the type of rides that have been impacted the most. The typical walk on rides that now have 10 to 15 minute waits. I find it interesting how you look at data too. You seem to want to gloss over the obvious conclusion of longer waits!

 

[BroganMc]

Just taking this point on at the moment-

Assuming your numbers are correct and the site you use is accurate- that's assuming a guest goes to WDW and rides every ride in the park and not only that, but rides every single ride standby.

I don't believe that's typical. Also, that number could easily be reduced by making use of EMH or rope drop, and riding during slower times of the day such as parades, fireworks. The number you give is the absolute worst case scenario.

But even in the worst case scenario, if your trip is 5 days, then your standby wait is increased 32 minutes per day non-peak, 41 minutes peak. Per ride it's under 5 minutes per ride non peak- and 6 minutes peak.

When you factor in crowd increases and ride capacity reductions, it probably does come down to a wash with touring plans results. When you factor in time saved not having to walk to get a pass, walk back to ride it and the ability to cluster rides together to shorten your walk time, fp+ probably saves time overall.

At any rate, both sites are pretty close to the same conclusions after looking at it in more detail.

Hang on a minute, the point of this FP+ system was to reduce wait times overall so guests would be free to shop and eat more. That report based on samplings done the first few months of 2014 before the system was deployed to yet more guests as it is now) demonstrates that overall people are waiting more in line. That destroys the whole purpose of implementing the system in the first place.

 

[Suvadoo]

Personally, I like the second tier attractions. I enjoy the super headliners, but the majority of my time is spent on rides like the people mover. So yes, my next vacation will be a lot different.

 

[cakebaker]

Hang on a minute, the point of this FP+ system was to reduce wait times overall so guests would be free to shop and eat more. That report based on samplings done the first few months of 2014 before the system was deployed to yet more guests as it is now) demonstrates that overall people are waiting more in line. That destroys the whole purpose of implementing the system in the first place.

I don't believe that was the whole purpose, but regardless, those waits are worst case scenario using an example that surely doesn't reflect the average guest or Disney's intention, which was to get people to use FP+.
Those times are for standby waits, not the use of FP+. Use FP+ and you'll wait less.... which was Disney's intention. And that's even if you agree with his analysis of the numbers, and I certainly don't.

 

[smitch425]

Hang on a minute, the point of this FP+ system was to reduce wait times overall so guests would be free to shop and eat more. That report based on samplings done the first few months of 2014 before the system was deployed to yet more guests as it is now) demonstrates that overall people are waiting more in line. That destroys the whole purpose of implementing the system in the first place.

Not sure if that was the whole purpose, but it definitely was our experience. We got more done this trip than ever before, due in part to FP+, and I had mobility issues that I was dealing with for the first time, so I was moving slower than usual.

 

[CTDisneyfan816]

Hang on a minute, the point of this FP+ system was to reduce wait times overall so guests would be free to shop and eat more. That report based on samplings done the first few months of 2014 before the system was deployed to yet more guests as it is now) demonstrates that overall people are waiting more in line. That destroys the whole purpose of implementing the system in the first place.

With any change, adjustment time needs to be allocated for. If this is the case a year into the program, then there will be reason for alarm.

 

[Suvadoo]

I don't believe that was the whole purpose, but regardless, those waits are worst case scenario using an example that surely doesn't reflect the average guest or Disney's intention, which was to get people to use FP+.

Those times are for standby waits, not the use of FP+. Use FP+ and you'll wait less. And that's even if you agree with his analysis of the numbers, and I certainly don't.

But no one is going to be able to use FP+ on every ride, even if it is a FP+ ride. So, overall waits for all guests are increased.

 

[cakebaker]

But no one is going to be able to use FP+ on every ride, even if it is a FP+ ride. So, overall waits for all guests are increased.

Not when you take a close look at the numbers- using NO fp+ is basically a wash. Any fp+'s you use will shorten your overall wait time. It's overall wait time WDW is interested in, not a single wait in a single line

 

[flicx]

I don't believe that was the whole purpose, but regardless, those waits are worst case scenario

No those waits are not worst case they are average/median. In the article it is not at all hard to reason that most of the rides Josh chose at AK and studios and epcot would be rides almost all guests will ride. Now the 20 he listed at magic kingdom, no I don't think so.

 

[flicx]

But no one is going to be able to use FP+ on every ride, even if it is a FP+ ride. So, overall waits for all guests are increased.

They absolutely have increased. In the summary at easy wdw josh says so himself. Wait times are higher.

 

[cakebaker]

They absolutely have increased. In the summary at easy wdw josh says so himself. Wait times are higher.

Overall, they have not, and touringplans says so. Whether the sites agree or not, it's overall that matters.

 

[flicx]

Overall, they have not, and touringplans says so. Whether the sites agree or not, it's overall that matters.

You can choose to ignore it if you like, but when one of the most reputable sites regarding Disney says overall headliner waits have stayed the same and secondary attractions have had SIGNIFICANT wait time increases I tend to believe. So by my math stay the same plus increase equals longer waits. That is if my math teacher wasn't lying to me for years!

 

[cakebaker]

You can choose to ignore it if you like, but when one of the most reputable sites regarding Disney says overall headliner waits have stayed the same and secondary attractions have had SIGNIFICANT wait time increases I tend to believe. So by my math stay the same plus increase equals longer waits. That is if my math teacher wasn't lying to me for years!

The only one totally dismissing and ignoring a reputable site, is you. You don't like what touringplans says, so you don't even consider it for a moment. You've locked on to one that confirms, you think, what you choose to believe. Not exactly the best way to know the truth.

 

[flicx]

You use sites you trust for facts and interpret them however you want. I'm not ignoring the site at all. I'm simply looking at the overall picture and other trusted sites as well instead of stopping at the one that fits my opinion when I twist the data a specific way.

We'll just have to disagree.

I guess we will just disagree, I don't care for the way you twist your data!

 

[Luckybee]

One can argue the numbers a million different ways, but the fact is a basic principle of yield management is a more equal (not perfect, mind you) distribution of demand - and in this case, wait times.

The highest demand attractions that also typically experienced the highest wait times will see a modest reduction in wait times, both median and max. Albeit there will still be a long wait but instead of, say, a 90 minute median might be reduced to a 70 minute median and a 120 max might be reduced to a 90 minute max.

The attractions with previously lesser demand (and correspondingly no-to-low wait times) have now been placed into the resource pool and are used to displace the higher demand for more popular attractions. Net result is the previous no-to-low wait times for those attractions WILL rise. In many cases substantially and in some cases double or more.

Does that mean that total aggregate wait time increases? Obviously not for everyone because it depends on what resources they wish to consume. Even if I were to keep track of the total time I spend in lines each day in the next three weeks when I'm there, I did not do that previously so I have no basis to compare to. My suspicion is that it depends on how many of the secondary attractions are utilized - a possibility I believe is substantially increased for me because rather than utilize multiple FP's on one high-demand attraction, I will be spending more time on secondary attractions than I previously have.

Therefore, I will most likely be standing in what is now a longer line more times than I have before.

For us it had the opposite effect . We waited in lines less than we did prior to fp+. Although we did get most of the rides we wanted we had to do so over a longer period of time ie; we actually had to go to MK 3 times(including 1 emh night) in order to accomplish what we wanted without crazy lines. The upside is we spent a lot less time in the parks than usual and we were more like 3 or 4 then done. Gave us more time to do other things like Universal and the Mall at millennia
On any of the 3 visits when we tried to utilize the kiosks we could never get anything we wanted. All of which is why we would never go back unless we have at least a week in Orlando because, as I said in another post, when we have to have waited 45 minutes for its a small world (had we chose to have waited) is when it is time for us to find something else to do.

 

[cakebaker]

I guess we will just disagree, I don't care for the way you twist your data!

I'm twisting no data- posting verbatim what touringplans says.

Indeed we will have to disagree.

 

[wisblue]

Why not? These are the type of rides that have been impacted the most. The typical walk on rides that now have 10 to 15 minute waits. I find it interesting how you look at data too. You seem to want to gloss over the obvious conclusion of longer waits!

I am not glossing over anything.

I accept the conclusion that SOME rides have longer average waits, but I also take note of the fact that some have shorter average waits. Like so many things, how much that might impact someone's park experience depends very heavily on how you tour the parks. If the average posted wait time for a ride like Figment has gone from 5 to 10 minutes, I don't see that as a big deal. Unless you get into the line and try it (which these studies obviously can't do) you don't know what the ACTUAL wait time is.

On my last two visits (one at Christmas last year and one in August this year) we were in a spot where we had about a half hour before going to lunch and we thought a quick tour of IASW might fill that time. In both cases, the posted wait time was 25 minutes, but with 2 seconds of observation of the actual line, including the fact that nobody was entering the FP line, we concluded that the actual wait would be much less than 25 minutes. In both cases, we were on a boat within 5 minutes.

If you had looked at your phone you might have concluded that the wait was too long and moved on to something else while cussing about how FP+ has screwed up wait times for a mid level attraction. We shrugged our shoulders and went on the ride.

One of my opinions is that the existence of FPs at an attraction creates a level of uncertainty about the standby wait, especially at attractions for which FPs don't come close to selling out. That has prompted Disney to post wait times that are even more overstated than they used to be. Nobody can prove this one way or another by just studying posted wait times, and nobody really has the resources to do enough sampling of this to prove it or disprove it either. And conflicting anecdotal reports don't prove anything either. I'm sure there is somebody out there who can say that they entered a line at IASW with a posted wait time of 25 minutes and that they actually waited 25 minutes or even more.

 

[flicx]

I'm twisting no data- posting verbatim what touringplans says.

Indeed we will have to disagree.

Yet you accuse me of twisting data for quoting another site. You can't have it both ways!

 

[wisblue]

You can choose to ignore it if you like, but when one of the most reputable sites regarding Disney says overall headliner waits have stayed the same and secondary attractions have had SIGNIFICANT wait time increases I tend to believe. So by my math stay the same plus increase equals longer waits. That is if my math teacher wasn't lying to me for years!

Even when limited to just that statement you show that you have cherry picked that report to suit your agenda. Most of the discussion on this board focuses on the MK because of its significantly larger number of attractions. As I said in my earlier post, the other 3 parks present a completely different picture because most guests can avoid the standby lines at the popular attractions by using FPs and/or arriving early or staying late. And, even in those parks the increases are not that great.

Josh's exact quote relating to the MK is:

"Magic Kingdom is perhaps the most interesting, where median and peak waits have actually gone down significantly at the headliners and up considerably at several of the secondary attractions, most notably it’s a small world, Haunted Mansion, Jungle Cruise, and Pirates of the Caribbean. It’s hard to say how much of an effect FP+ has had at Haunted Mansion and Jungle Cruise in particular. It might seem obvious that FP+ is directly responsible for the uptick, but those two attractions had oddly increasing wait times over the months leading up to the initial implementation of FP+. Nonetheless, expect to wait a lot longer at both in the afternoon."

This has nothing to do with math, it has to do with understanding plain English. It isn't a matter of "same plus increase equals longer lines", unless you think that "down significantly" is a synonym for "the same".

I also wonder why you consider easywdw to be so reputable, but reject Touring Plans out of hand even though their data is more recent.

Josh hangs around these boards occasionally, so I wonder if he would agree with me that you have taken his data and observations and twisted them into a different conclusion than he intended. Especially when you say how much extra time a typical guest should expect to spend in standby lines in a day in the park. I think he would agree with me that if you follow a lot of his (and Touring Plans) suggestions for touring the parks, your extra time in standby lines should not be that dramatic.

 

[flicx]

I am not glossing over anything.

I accept the conclusion that SOME rides have longer average waits, but I also take note of the fact that some have shorter average waits. Like so many things, how much that might impact someone's park experience depends very heavily on how you tour the parks. If the average posted wait time for a ride like Figment has gone from 5 to 10 minutes, I don't see that as a big deal. Unless you get into the line and try it (which these studies obviously can't do) you don't know what the ACTUAL wait time is.

On my last two visits (one at Christmas last year and one in August this year) we were in a spot where we had about a half hour before going to lunch and we thought a quick tour of IASW might fill that time. In both cases, the posted wait time was 25 minutes, but with 2 seconds of observation of the actual line, including the fact that nobody was entering the FP line, we concluded that the actual wait would be much less than 25 minutes. In both cases, we were on a boat within 5 minutes.

If you had looked at your phone you might have concluded that the wait was too long and moved on to something else while cussing about how FP+ has screwed up wait times for a mid level attraction. We shrugged our shoulders and went on the ride.

One of my opinions is that the existence of FPs at an attraction creates a level of uncertainty about the standby wait, especially at attractions for which FPs don't come close to selling out. That has prompted Disney to post wait times that are even more overstated than they used to be. Nobody can prove this one way or another by just studying posted wait times, and nobody really has the resources to do enough sampling of this to prove it or disprove it either. And conflicting anecdotal reports don't prove anything either. I'm sure there is somebody out there who can say that they entered a line at IASW with a posted wait time of 25 minutes and that they actually waited 25 minutes or even more.

Again if you and others disagree with easy wdw, fine. His findings are very simply put. Median times at headliners are virtually the same, median times at non headliners have significantly increased/ ie. longer waits. That about as simple as it gets!