MCM race plan
In which I overthink things
Thanks everyone for the well-wishes! I have to keep reminding myself that I have done all of the training and there is now nothing more I can do to improve my fitness. The only thing left is to figure out what I'm doing on race day. As usual, I have spent way too much time thinking about this. Send help
First, logistics. I have made myself a
packing list:
I feel like most of this is pretty self-explanatory, but maybe not everything.
- I plan to wear my Hoka Oras to the race and change into my Metaspeed Edge Paris-es when I get there. That way my race shoes get a little less worn out, and I have something to change into after the race.
- Earrings are obviously not terribly important, but I like to wear studs on race day and tend to forget to put them in.
- I will take two Tylenol shortly before the race starts. It's not enough to mask any real pain, but I think it helps. And it's not an NSAID, so it should be safe. I will eat the stroopwafel at that point too.
- Honestly I was not that impressed with the post-race snacks advertised, so I'm bringing my own, with options depending on how I feel.
- Hopefully I can find a place to change afterwards (that's not a port-a-potty).
I've already started setting things out because I'm paranoid I'm going to forget something important.
Things to pack
Flat me. I'll toss the gray top as the temps rise.
So that's everything I need to take with me. Did I forget anything?
As far as
timing goes, I'm planning to leave around 6, bike to the Metro (which will save me 15 minutes of walking), and take the Metro to Pentagon station. I should get there by about 6:30. People who have done MCM before, does that seem reasonable? I keep seeing people say to get there early, but I don't know what "early" means to them, so that's not particularly helpful
The goal is to have enough time to get through security, hit the portas, drop off my gear, do a light 8-10 minute jog*, pop over to the portas again, and then head to the starting area. I feel like an hour and a half should be plenty of time for all that, right?
* I wasn't sure whether running should be part of my marathon warm-up (I'm already running 26.2 miles; why would I add more??), but I recently started listening to Megan and David Roche's podcast, Some Work All Play, and in one of the first episodes I listened to, they talked about a study showing that it's good to prime your body for running even for longer races. So, okay then, I will try it.
For
fueling/hydration, I'll have six gels: 3 UCAN and 3 GU. I will plan to take one every 40 minutes, which I will remember to do because I will have a timer on my watch for it. I will also have a 500 mL flask of Skratch, which I will supplement with on-course water (particularly when I want to take a GU) and refill with plain water once it's empty. I'll also carry some SaltStick chews, which I may or may not use.
Okay. Now let's talk
racing and pacing. Just for fun, I checked the race equivalents for my 45:50 10K and 21:59 5K from the first half of the year.
Weirdly, if I enter both the 5K and the 10K into the 538 calculator, it comes up with 3:52:26 (8:52 pace). This makes no sense to me, since each time individually produced a 3:38 and change marathon. Plus, last year I ran a 3:50 high in less-than-ideal conditions, and I'm confident my fitness is better now than it was then. So that one is hard to explain or credit.
Then there's Runalyze.
I'm skeptical of this one as well, since my most recent PRs are faster than the prognosis here. And Runalyze doesn't seem to believe in a taper - if I look back a couple of weeks to the peak of my training, its prognosis drops to a 3:36:57. (I have a whole bunch of other thoughts about this algorithm, but if I go into them here, I'll never get to the actual race plan, so let's table that for now. We can delve into those later if anyone is interested.)
Another tip I heard on a podcast somewhere was if you were able to pick up the pace in your last marathon, take your average pace for the last 10K and use that as your starting point. Thanks to the timing mat placement at Space Coast, I know I ran the last 10K in 52 minutes, which is 8:22 pace or about a 3:40 marathon.
Looking at my training, things have been mostly good, with only one or two epic fails. I seem to do particularly well in my race shoes, which I'll take as a good sign:
- September HM at M pace: finished in 1:48:30 (officially 8:17 pace) feeling very comfortable
- Last week's M/T hill workout where I averaged somewhere around a 7:48 GAP for the M intervals - almost certainly this was too fast, but it felt comfortable, so it's still worth something
More realistically, in my last significant LR workout (wearing my Novablasts), my MP intervals averaged somewhere around 8:10, and I wasn't feeling particularly good that day.
Aside: A month ago, I would have been a bit excited about the even the small possibility of a BQ (not that I would have expected to get into Boston with a 3:34:58 or whatever, but it would have been cool to say that I ran a BQ anyway), but then they went and changed the times on me. Since sub-3:30 seems like a stretch, to say the least, I'm not worried about it. Someday it will happen, even if I have to wait until I turn 40 and get those 5 minutes back (assuming they don't move the goalposts again 
).
So what do I make of all this? If I had to guess, I'd say I could run somewhere in the
3:35-3:40 range (8:12-8:23 pace). The race is relatively flat and the weather looks good, so I shouldn't need to do too much adjustment overall there. (I would actually take a slightly warmer starting temp than the low-to-mid 40s forecast, but I can't complain too much, because it's definitely been worse.)
With that in mind for the overall pace, let's talk specifics. For some unfathomable reason, the Marine Corps Marathon doesn't have real corrals or, apparently, starting waves. So I expect the start to be quite congested and messy. Plus, the first few miles boast the most significant uphill portion of the course. As a result, I'll be happy if my pace for the first couple of miles is below 9 flat. Somewhere in the 8:30-8:45 range would be better, but I'll take what I can get.
MCM course map
I listened to an interview with the MCM race director from last year. It didn't tell me much that I didn't already know, but one insight I did glean from it was that the course is basically a series of
five out-and-backs. And it turns out I know at least the DC portion of the course very well, which helps with planning.
First:
Arlington. This is the big hill at the beginning. I'm told it's not nearly as bad as it looks on the elevation map, and I have been practicing hills. But I'd still expect to be 10-20 seconds per mile off the pace, plus whatever I have to deal with for crowding. Hopefully on the way back down I can make some of that up - there the issue will be more keeping myself in check, since I like to fly downhill
Next:
Rock Creek Parkway. I am very familiar with this portion of the race, since I run on the trail beside this road all the freaking time. It's also part of the DC Half course. There's a slight uphill towards the end of the "out" portion, but it's not that noticeable. Ideally by this point I'll be keeping a steady and comfortable pace.
After that we loop around behind the Kennedy Center and the Lincoln Memorial - this section is slightly downhill and often has a tailwind. Then comes out-and-back #3:
East Potomac Park. It's quite flat but can be pretty windy. Mile 12 is the famous Blue Mile, lined with photos of Marines killed in action. The idea of this section always makes me tear up a little, but I have no idea how I'll feel about it 12 miles into a marathon. Regardless, I'd expect to be perhaps slightly faster on the "out" and slightly slower on the "back" if there's any wind, which it looks like there might be. Also, there are real bathrooms, which hopefully I won't need but this (or the next bit behind the Washington Monument) would be the place to go if necessary.
Then comes the
Mall. Again, very familiar, and it's also pretty flat other than one short hill that shouldn't be a problem. I'd expect this to be the most hyped-up section - I was out there last year for MCM and there were plenty of spectators out cheering, along with a DJ and a marching band. If I've managed to hang onto my Skratch for this long, the water fountains here are a good place to refill too.
After leaving the Mall, we head to the apparently infamous
14th Street bridge. This is another section I know well, and as I said a couple of weeks ago, I think the dread is somewhat misplaced, though probably not entirely. This would be the time to check in and pick up the pace if possible.
The last out-and-back is
Crystal City. While I've been there many times, I've never run there, so I'm less certain what to expect. A bit of elevation, apparently. And of course, the race ends in a hill, because somebody out there hates marathoners
In summary, I hope to be around 8:30-8:45 for the first couple of miles, 7:45-8:00 for the downhill, then about 8:10-8:20 for the next 16 miles, and if I can, pick it up from there to the finish.
Of course, after all that, this plan is subject to lots of changes in the moment. I've found that my best races are based on how I feel, so if I feel really good, I might run faster, and if I feel awful, I'll probably be slower. I would expect to feel pretty comfortable for at least the first 10 miles and reasonably okay for the next 8 or so before things start to hurt.
I do have solid
heart rate data from my last marathon. I was mostly in the mid-to-high 160s for the first half of the race, slowly crept into the low 170s through about mile 19, and then had a steady climb up to a max of 186 for the rest of the race. (I was also running faster in that last section.) So that's a good indicator to keep an eye on, assuming my watch actually gives me HR data (which it's unfortunately not always good at when it's cold out).
Pace/HR graph
After the race, I plan to head home relatively quickly to rescue my lonely puppy. Sorry, puppy. Hopefully I will be able to walk
My gremlin lying on his back on the couch
Thoughts? Anything I overlooked? Three days to go!!
I found that leading up to that and then really for most of the rest of the race there was very little shade. And a lot of pavement to absorb and emit heat.
. Lol. I'm still debating whether that's a good idea for race day - I think my HR was also significantly higher than normal at the beginning of the run because of it.
.That was so fast. Just an incredible race.
)
Good luck! I hope you have a fantastic race!
. Hopefully that's not the case for you!
