WOW DVC Prices !!!

[Brian Noble]

Sure it would. I just don't think Disney will go from their current usurious rates to "free," something they've never done before, in the midst of one of the more inflationary periods we've seen in decades.

 

[gmi3804]

I always wondered where people who live in HI consider exotic. Detroit?!

(Apologies to Detroiters.)

Well, shoot. I knew I should've said Gary, IN.

 

[Chili327]

I was thinking about this in a different context, but there might be reason to just go ahead and buy VDH. It will take a few years after the resort opens before there is critical mass in resale availability. If you would just rent rooms for cash in the meantime, there is some value in getting started as an owner right away.

Does it make up the entire difference? Maybe not. But resale VDH is only going to be usable at VDH, and that also changes the value proposition quite a bit. Based on our experience with Riviera, I'm not sure that difference is fully priced into resale values--at least, not for me.

Don't get me wrong, I'm a dyed-in-the-wool resale timeshare owner. I've never even gone on a tour let alone considered a developer purchase. But, that doesn't mean it's a terrible idea.

But for 50pts, we’re talking $10k direct vs $unknown amount… possibly saving thousands. And not sure i would use VDH points in WDW anyway, but i guess having the option is nice, maybe just depends on the price both direct and what a small contract would sell for.

 

[DVCsloth]

Sure it would. I just don't think Disney will go from their current usurious rates to "free," something they've never done before, in the midst of one of the more inflationary periods we've seen in decades.

If Disney wants to sell the minimum 150 points to new owners, they may consider this. Don't see a whole lot on the horizon for a lot of interest in DVC especially direct with the economic conditions we are under right now. This could get direct sales moving again.

 

[Brian Noble]

Let's put it this way: I'll bet a mickeybar that we will not see zero-percent-for-multiple-years financing on DVC sales in the next year.

This is not Disney's first rodeo. They've been through recessions before, and they tend to be pretty good about not letting short-term thinking obscure long-term gains. During the Great Recession, they ended up investing a ton in CapEx. That sounded odd, until you realized that (a) materials and labor had become relatively cheap and (b) these things would be opening years in the future--when there was a good chance spending had recovered.

They will provide incentives, and offer a few deals like maybe bonus points in the first year or two, or what-have-you. Most of these things have been done before, won't leave too much money on the table, and won't leave them in a longer-term hole. They will even put up with slower sales for a while--they've been willing to do that before. What they won't do is sell in a panic, and offering 0% financing for four years while the Fed rate is 5% (and 4.5% higher than a year ago) sounds like selling in a panic to me.

That last bit is important. Offering 0% financing in an ultra-low interest environment doesn't really "cost" that much. Offering it now "costs" a lot more.

 

[DVCsloth]

Let's put it this way: I'll bet a mickeybar that we will not see zero-percent-for-multiple-years financing on DVC sales in the next year.

This is not Disney's first rodeo. They've been through recessions before, and they tend to be pretty good about not letting short-term thinking obscure long-term gains. During the Great Recession, they ended up investing a ton in CapEx. That sounded odd, until you realized that (a) materials and labor had become relatively cheap and (b) these things would be opening years in the future--when there was a good chance spending had recovered.

They will provide incentives, and offer a few deals like maybe bonus points in the first year or two, or what-have-you. Most of these things have been done before, won't leave too much money on the table, and won't leave them in a longer-term hole. They will even put up with slower sales for a while--they've been willing to do that before. What they won't do is sell in a panic, and offering 0% financing for four years while the Fed rate is 5% (and 4.5% higher than a year ago) sounds like selling in a panic to me.

That last bit is important. Offering 0% financing in an ultra-low interest environment doesn't really "cost" that much. Offering it now "costs" a lot more.

Just sayin, 150 points x more than $200 plus 10% interest or whatever they charge is going to be very difficult. They're going to need to do something to get people to buy. I guess it depends on what their financial people feel is better in the long run. Holding onto unsold points or losing profit on interest. I think a lot of people who would buy DVC are looking at how much it will be every month and also need to figure rising HOA every year.

 

[ClaraOswald]

I'd post a picture of my view here in Nebraska but I wouldn't want to make everyone here super jealous.

Okay...I lied. I want to post a picture I took this morning. Happy Spring, everyone!



And now back to the topic of DVC prices.....

 

[Canchaser143]

Okay...I lied. I want to post a picture I took this morning. Happy Spring, everyone!

View attachment 748993

And now back to the topic of DVC prices.....

Currently snowing here in Utah if that makes anyone feel any better But look at that blue sky!

 

[Brian Noble]

They're going to need to do something to get people to buy.

Oh, I agree with this, 100%. But it won't be something nearly as significant as most people think, because it won't have to be. History shows us that incentives that are objectively modest can generate huge interest in a hurry.

As an example, consider FREE DINING! If you actually do the math, it's a pretty ordinary discount, no better than the typical percentage-off deals in most cases. But people fall all over themselves to book it.

This brings me back to one of my favorites: bonus points. This is something they've done in the past, and it generated good interest. It's also brilliant. When sales are slow, DVC has a bunch of extra points backing declared inventory laying round. In economic contractions, it's hard to use a bunch of extra points for rental inventory. They are expiring assets, so there's no long-term value there. They were offered instead of discounting the sales price, so Disney is not leaving money on the table.

But, individual buyers get pretty excited. As evidence take a look at any of the "free points!" threads about buying late in the use-year. No one is getting "free" points; those are just the points they are entitled to based on the rules of the program. The only real "sweetener" is that Disney will bank them late in the year when you buy.

Bonus or "developer" points are almost the perfect incentive to offer during an economic contraction, and it works, because individual consumers over-value them compared to their "real" economic value, while Disney does not.

Long term zero-percent financing, on the other hand, bites Disney twice: forgone interest on the loan, and accounting losses due to high inflation for future cash flows. It's a drastic step.

 

[DVCsloth]

Oh, I agree with this, 100%. But it won't be something nearly as significant as most people think, because it won't have to be. History shows us that incentives that are objectively modest can generate huge interest in a hurry.

As an example, consider FREE DINING! If you actually do the math, it's a pretty ordinary discount, no better than the typical percentage-off deals in most cases. But people fall all over themselves to book it.

This brings me back to one of my favorites: bonus points. This is something they've done in the past, and it generated good interest. It's also brilliant. When sales are slow, DVC has a bunch of extra points backing declared inventory laying round. In economic contractions, it's hard to use a bunch of extra points for rental inventory. They are expiring assets, so there's no long-term value there. They were offered instead of discounting the sales price, so Disney is not leaving money on the table.

But, individual buyers get pretty excited. As evidence take a look at any of the "free points!" threads about buying late in the use-year. No one is getting "free" points; those are just the points they are entitled to based on the rules of the program. The only real "sweetener" is that Disney will bank them late in the year when you buy.

It's almost the perfect incentive to offer during an economic contraction, and it works, because individual consumers over-value them compared to their "real" economic value, while Disney does not.

Long term zero-percent financing, on the other hand, bites Disney twice: forgone interest on the loan, and accounting losses due to high inflation for future cash flows. It's a drastic step.

Wouldn't I get "free points" right now if I were a new owner at VGF or Riviera?

 

[Brian Noble]

Well, exactly. The deal I am thinking of is, say, an "extra" 100 "developer points" on top of whatever your contract entitles you to. Those points have a hard expiration, and also sometimes restrictions on where they can be used. I will see if I can dig up a description of how it worked.

 

[Spivey378]

Well, shoot. I knew I should've said Gary, IN.

Hey now!

 

[Sandisw]

Wouldn't I get "free points" right now if I were a new owner at VGF or Riviera?

What you are getting are not free though. You get what you are entitled to when buying..which is current UY points.

Sure, there are no 2022 MFs but thst is because those fees are for operations of the resort and by calendar year so if you become an owner today, you can’t be charged to resorts operations for days yoy didn’t own.

And yes, resale deals include it sometimes, but that is a private deal and not the same.

The free developer points that were offered some years ago were in addition to what you were entitled to. We got SSR points plus all our regular points when we bought a June UY in May for BLT. Those SSR points had a one year use IIRC.

 

[DVCsloth]

What you are are not free though. You get what you are entitled to when buying..which is current UY points.

Sure, there are no 2022 MFs but thst is because those fees are for operations of the resort and by calendar year so if you become an owner today, you can’t be charged to resorts operations for days yoy didn’t own.

And yes, resale deals include it sometimes, but that is a private deal and not the same.

The free developer points that were offered some years ago were in addition to what you were entitled to. We got SSR points plus all our regular points when we bought a June UY in May for BLT. Those SSR points had a one year use IIRC.

I get it. Didn't know about developer points. If I were to add direct, I would buy just before my use year for the "free points" (no dues). Have done this several times already and contacted DVC to bank them for me.

 

[Sandisw]

I get it. Didn't know about developer points. If I were to add direct, I would buy just before my use year for the "free points" (no dues). Have done this several times already and contacted DVC to bank them for me.

Me too..but it’s important that it’s clear the points one is getting are not free points as it sounds like they are giving you something as a bonus..and they do frame it that way..but in fact you are getting and paying exaclty what you are entitled to and that the only piece is buying strategically in your UY.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Okay...I lied. I want to post a picture I took this morning. Happy Spring, everyone

Okay...I lied. I want to post a picture I took this morning. Happy Spring, everyone!

View attachment 748993

And now back to the topic of DVC prices.....

Beautiful! My children have never seen snow their whole lives and would love to play in that! I too haven’t seen actual snow in over a decade.

 

[Genie+]

Even when sales go slowly over years the excess inventory is a brand spanking new resort. That’s got to be attractive to prospective guests. I’d think it’s the easiest time for them to sell cash rooms.

 

[Chili327]

All are my favorite resorts.
BLT has a longer expiration and I think is worth the investment with the variety of rooms available and proximity to MK, Monorail.

AKV also has amazing rooms and is only a few years behind BLT. And prices may drop on resale even more right now since Disney is currently running a direct promo on AKV.

BRV has captured my attention recently too. The Wilderness Lodge is one of the best themed resorts at Disney. The ability to buy it a low enough price during this time would make it so in the end it wouldn't matter to sell because I would have gotten what I paid for and still saved on Disney trips. Bonus: this resort is only a boat ride away from MK.

Right now I think all 3 are very tempting choices, you just have to decide which better suits your vacation style and needs.

Buying into another resort does give you the option for the 11month booking window. You could do the 2 or 3 year banking trick at the new resort at the 11 month window. You would need it for standard rooms at BLT and Kilmanjaro and Value rooms at AK.
As long as you look for the same UY, combining points is easier at the 7 month window.

Since there was a complaint in the rofr thread, i figured id quote your post over here.
One thing i wanted to add was that at these prices BRV makes just as much sense if not more sense to buy for SAP than SSR.
I mean why not get a resort closer to a park for the same prices and similar MF.
The only way SSR is worth it now (unless you want it as a home resort) is if the price is in the $80s or lower.

 

[LittleBitGoofy]

Since there was a complaint in the rofr thread, i figured id quote your post over here.
One thing i wanted to add was that at these prices BRV makes just as much sense if not more sense to buy for SAP than SSR.
I mean why not get a resort closer to a park for the same prices and similar MF.
The only way SSR is worth it now (unless you want it as a home resort) is if the price is in the $80s or lower.

I hadn't even considered BRV before, but yeah, those prices are dropping nicely and I'd agree are a better fallback than SSR for the home resort considering their location to MK. There's a $91/pp right now in our UY. It's more points than I'd want (350), but wow, that's cheaper than 150 pts direct at VGF.

 

[kilik64]

Well besides the small fact that SSR deeds are ya know 12 years longer...