Will there every be a 5th theme park?

[Horace Horsecollar]

Who says the monorail doesn't produce direct revenue? A quick review of deluxe resorts will show that even rooms with a view of the parking lot at a monorail resort will fetch a $25 - $50 premium over a similar rooom at a non-monorail resort.

I'm the person who said that a monorail doesn't produce direct revenue -- because I know the difference between "direct" and "indirect."

The problem with indirect revenue is that it's difficult to quantify. Opposing sides can calculate vastly different results from the same base numbers. In the end, financial folks view things like the monorail as "cost centers" whose costs must be burdened against "revenue centers" (such as resort hotels or a theme park tickets), reducing the net profit from those "revenue centers." The argument then becomes how much (if any) additional revenue the "revenue centers" produce because of each "cost center." Generally, "cost centers" are viewed as necessary evils.

Secondly, the LV monorail construction costs weren't even close to $166m / mile.

Fine. My gut reaction is that the WDW Monorail could be expanded for substantially less that $166.7 million per mile. I said as much in my post. But I'm not qualified to state a specific number.

The actual cost of building the monorail track would really be around $10m/mile, sans stations, equipment, etc., which is about what the actual construction figures for LV after backing-out political contributions/graft which I'm expecting would be notably less at Disney.

You can state with certainty that the "actual cost of building the monorail track would really be around" $10 million per mile? My gut reaction is that that's way too low.

And no, the last time I thought a bus was a fantastical creation was when I was saying choo-choo and eating mashed peas out of a food jar.

Nobody is saying that unthemed buses belching diesel exhaust are wonderful. I would be thrilled to have an extensive network of monorails at my disposal when visiting WDW.

However, one of the things I really like about this forum, compared to all the other Disney rumor forums and "armchair imagineering" forums (which i ignore), is that the participants on this board usually understand that Disney makes decisions for business reasons. Sometimes, Disney makes good business decisions. Sometimes, Disney makes bad business decisions, based on a dubious understanding of their own business. (AV is particularly good at pointing out the latter.)

Clearly, the powers at Disney have not been able to make a business case for expanding the WDW Monorail system since the opening of Epcot, almost a quarter century ago.

 

[YoHo]

* - General Motors, sponsor of a not-small pavilion at Epcot to the tune of $100+ million dollars has spent the last half century killing transportation systems in cities across America. WDW wasn't any different.

I can't speak to Disney, that's your forte, but country wide, this is not true, GM and the rest of Detroit had very little to do with the death of public transportation

 

[Horace Horsecollar]

I can't speak to Disney, that's your forte, but country wide, this is not true, GM and the rest of Detroit had very little to do with the death of public transportation

You might want to read up on National City Lines. You can start with these Wikipedia entries:

-- National City Lines

-- Great American Streetcar Scandal

 

[Another Voice]

Clearly, the powers at Disney have not been able to make a business case for expanding the WDW Monorail system since the opening of Epcot, almost a quarter century ago.

The sad reality is that Walt Disney World has a tremendous bsuiness case for expanding the monorail - faster and cheaper transportation for guests, higher guest statisfaction, lower operating costs, another reason why guests shouldn't have cars and leave property, etc.

It's The Walt Disney Company that has problems. Corporate hates the theme parks. They consider them money wasting hogs, a dinosaur business the produces nothing but pain. They HATE putting capital into the places when there are so many get-rich-faster schemes out there - for the price of the monorails you could make a couple Jerry Bruckheimer blockbusters, buy a lowly cable network, fund dozens of Disney Channel movies and albums. All of those have the promise of quick and easy returns.

Disney doesn't realize that the problems at the parks are the result of their failure to reinvest. Old rides become stale and uninteresting. Infrastuture crumbs and guests are inconvienenced more and more. Lines grow longer and workers are harder than ever to hire. But Disney solution is to cut expenses - a downward spiral that will take billions more dollars to fix than if they had done it right in the first place.


P.S. - My grandmother used to tell me about taking the Pacific Red Car from Long Beach to Los Angeles, from downtown to Anaheim and even all the down to Newport Beach. It was one of the largest public transportation systems in the country. Right up until the day General Motors bought it, ripped up the tracks and promised to replace everything with busses. Southern California hasn't had a decent system since.

 

[Lord Fantasius]

I'm the person who said that a monorail doesn't produce direct revenue -- because I know the difference between "direct" and "indirect."

The problem with indirect revenue is that it's difficult to quantify. Opposing sides can calculate vastly different results from the same base numbers. In the end, financial folks view things like the monorail as "cost centers" whose costs must be burdened against "revenue centers" (such as resort hotels or a theme park tickets), reducing the net profit from those "revenue centers." The argument then becomes how much (if any) additional revenue the "revenue centers" produce because of each "cost center." Generally, "cost centers" are viewed as necessary evils.

With that argument, you can't consider any ride at WDW to generate direct revenue since they've done away with the ride tickets. It's strange however that Disney, Inc., propogates the impact EE has had on attendance and the increase in revenue but can't do it across the rest of WDW.

Yes, I do work in an industry that is, unfortunately, very much run on a cost center/profit center basis though am hopefully "outside" enough to see it is not a necessary evil, but rather utilized as a controlling mechanism by an ever smaller group of people to measure, usually for the purpose of blaming someone else for, an organization's failure. Micromanaging based solely on microeconomics is always a bad idea and is the quickest way to kill a vision.

Fine. My gut reaction is that the WDW Monorail could be expanded for substantially less that $166.7 million per mile. I said as much in my post. But I'm not qualified to state a specific number.

Actually what you said was rather ambivalent, "maybe...maybe not." I was using the no. the CPA analyst who did the review and who explained each step of his analysis in a 5-pg report.

You can state with certainty that the "actual cost of building the monorail track would really be around" $10 million per mile? My gut reaction is that that's way too low.

Well, how's this - I have a 95% confidence level that I am within a small neighborhood of 90% certainty!

Nobody is saying that unthemed buses belching diesel exhaust are wonderful. I would be thrilled to have an extensive network of monorails at my disposal when visiting WDW.

Then how about one that stops at every hotel room door since we're dreaming big...or were you being fascetious?

However, one of the things I really like about this forum, compared to all the other Disney rumor forums and "armchair imagineering" forums (which i ignore), is that the participants on this board usually understand that Disney makes decisions for business reasons. Sometimes, Disney makes good business decisions. Sometimes, Disney makes bad business decisions, based on a dubious understanding of their own business. (AV is particularly good at pointing out the latter.)

Clearly, the powers at Disney have not been able to make a business case for expanding the WDW Monorail system since the opening of Epcot, almost a quarter century ago.

Umm, must rethink who is actually paying Disney their salaries...wonder if its us armchair imagineers or some great imagineer in the sky? If all I am is a statistical quantity then Disney, Inc., is already dead.

-R

 

[ChrisFL]

P.S. - My grandmother used to tell me about taking the Pacific Red Car from Long Beach to Los Angeles, from downtown to Anaheim and even all the down to Newport Beach. It was one of the largest public transportation systems in the country. Right up until the day General Motors bought it, ripped up the tracks and promised to replace everything with busses. Southern California hasn't had a decent system since.

Like Cloverleaf in Who Framed Roger Rabbit?

 

[doconeill]

On one of the Walt Disney Treasures DVDs talking about Disneyland, it was mentioned that when the WEDway Peoplemover was built, Walt wanted Ford to sponsor it. They declined, at least in part because why would they want to sponsor a transportation system that would harm them as a company? So instead, Walt got Goodyear to sponsor it - it after all did use tires to push the vehicles...

Interestingly, the story seemed to imply that it was built with tire propulsion because of the Goodyear sponsorship. would the induction technology currently used at WDW sufficiently advanced back then that it could have been used if they wanted at Disneyland?

 

[DancingBear]

A quick review of deluxe resorts will show that even rooms with a view of the parking lot at a monorail resort will fetch a $25 - $50 premium over a similar rooom at a non-monorail resort.

Sure, but those resorts all just happen to be in view of the most popular theme park on the planet.

Honestly, if people could jump on a monorail from the AKL and have breakfast at the CR, lunch at GF and dinner at Poly watching the fireworks without stepping foot in a bus I think they would fill AKL at far higher room rates than they are charging now.

Perhaps. But suppose that trip for breakfast involved a whole bunch of stops and perhaps a couple of train transfers?

The actual cost of building the monorail track would really be around $10m/mile, sans stations, equipment, etc.

That's gonna be one fun ride without stations or equipment.

The Monorail Society enthusiastically supports the creation of monorail systems. They have some cost figures on their website for various systems:

http://www.monorails.org/tMspages/HowMuch.html

 

[Michael623]

I may be thinking a bit too far out of the box here but what about a compromise with some kind of a light rail system? Better than a bus but not as cool as a monorail yet much less expensive.

 

[Horace Horsecollar]

Then how about one that stops at every hotel room door since we're dreaming big...or were you being fascetious?

Huh? You think I'm either advocating transportation to every hotel room door or I'm being facetious?

I simply wrote, "Nobody is saying that unthemed buses belching diesel exhaust are wonderful. I would be thrilled to have an extensive network of monorails at my disposal when visiting WDW." I was simply agreeing that monorails provide a better guest experience than city buses.

Umm, must rethink who is actually paying Disney their salaries...wonder if its us armchair imagineers or some great imagineer in the sky? If all I am is a statistical quantity then Disney, Inc., is already dead.

Yes. You and I are each "a statistical quantity" for The Walt Disney Company. Disney is a business, and needs to make smart business decisions. Every business faces the challenge of how to make revenues and profits grow. That's fine.

Many of us on this board question some of Disney's business decisions and spending priorities. Constantly charging more and delivering less is ultimately a very risky business strategy. The decision makers at Disney need to understand why people spend thousands of dollars on WDW vacations and how to get more people to visit more often with greater guest satisfaction. And that means offering great, immersive experiences -- not attaching ugly, pastel "Year of a Million Dreams" signs onto beautifully themed buildings.

But that doesn't change the fact that Disney is a business that needs to make decisions for business reasons.

 

[fey_spirit]

You know on paper this all sounds really great - actually really really great.
But I wonder if application wouldn't be a nightmare... they do this and there will be a build up in attendance, which means more crowds, all loading into the same four parks that are already over crowded 90% of the year.

Sounds like a living nightmare to me...
I think in the end it would hurt their attendance over the long haul because I can't be the only person who would find a better use for my 10k a year then to pile myself into four tiny little parks that made me feel like I was trapped in a sardine can - no matter how cool the rides were, esp since what are now 90 - 180 minute lines could as good as double if they were really succesful...

I would like to see WDW rebuild and add more attractions to the parks they already have. MK really should get the updated sub ride like Disneyland is getting in June, plus a few others, and expand MGM (Pixar) studios. That is one park that could use some more rides. How about finally expanding the monorail line to go to AK and AKL? I would make AKL my home resort if the transportation wasn't limited to just taking the bus. You want to get more people through the gates at AK? Build a Monorail line to it, add a couple more attractions and they will come.

 

[Another Voice]

I may be thinking a bit too far out of the box here but what about a compromise with some kind of a light rail system?

Again, back in the mid-1990's, WDW came within a Michael Eisner signature of having its first light rail line. It would have started at the Ticket and Transportation Center, to Fort Wilderness and the planned Buffalo Junction Resort then turned south for a stop at Dixie Landings and Port Orleans, a potential stop at Old Key West and then finished at Downtown Disney.

It was killed by the same "use of capital" that keeps killing the monorail. Although the trolley was a "cheap" alternative, it was still too much money to waste on the parks with a direct revenue source.

And yes, General Motors gave Disney huge discounts on busses and other incentives to keep WDW reliant on diesel death wagons.

 

[ChrisFL]

You know on paper this all sounds really great - actually really really great.
But I wonder if application wouldn't be a nightmare... they do this and there will be a build up in attendance, which means more crowds, all loading into the same four parks that are already over crowded 90% of the year.

Sounds like a living nightmare to me...
I think in the end it would hurt their attendance over the long haul because I can't be the only person who would find a better use for my 10k a year then to pile myself into four tiny little parks that made me feel like I was trapped in a sardine can - no matter how cool the rides were, esp since what are now 90 - 180 minute lines could as good as double if they were really succesful...

WDW is popular, but I think your numbers are a bit off...MK may be crowded much of the year, but the other 3 parks aren't 90% crowded most of the year,far from it from what I've seen.

 

[fey_spirit]

To be fair - I may be in the wrong here... I can't unequivacably state what the crowd conditions are like at any point in the year other then the second week of December... as that is the only time of the year I'll go after hearing every one elses horror stories about the crowds during most of the rest of the year...

However I still belive that a new gate, along with building things up in the other parks, would not only improve the overall existing parks but help defer the crowd levels as they rise in response to those improvments... that would be win/win in the long run wouldn't it?

WDW is popular, but I think your numbers are a bit off...MK may be crowded much of the year, but the other 3 parks aren't 90% crowded most of the year,far from it from what I've seen.

 

[Another Voice]

But Disney wants crowded parks. People standing in line have already paid their admission price - that's money in the bank. But it costs the same amount of money to run an attraction that has a two hour wait as it does to run one with no line. So why not close three attractions (and save all that money) and get people over the forth ride. Instant profit.

Why spend all that money to build a new park just to spread out the people more? That's what happened at Animal Kingdom - it just change traffic patterns but didn't bring new people in. That's a waste of a billion dollars from Disney's POV.

 

[raidermatt]

The Monorail Society enthusiastically supports the creation of monorail systems. They have some cost figures on their website for various systems:

http://www.monorails.org/tMspages/HowMuch.html

Those numbers don't look particularly unreasonable for WDW, particularly when spread out over several years.

 

[YoHo]

You might want to read up on National City Lines. You can start with these Wikipedia entries:

-- National City Lines

-- Great American Streetcar Scandal

Trust me, I know what the conventional wisdom is, but those Wiki articles don't tell the whole story. GM took advantage of the prevailing attitudes of the population on cars and public transportation.

 

[Lord Fantasius]

Yes. You and I are each "a statistical quantity" for The Walt Disney Company. Disney is a business, and needs to make smart business decisions. Every business faces the challenge of how to make revenues and profits grow. That's fine.

Many of us on this board question some of Disney's business decisions and spending priorities. Constantly charging more and delivering less is ultimately a very risky business strategy. The decision makers at Disney need to understand why people spend thousands of dollars on WDW vacations and how to get more people to visit more often with greater guest satisfaction. And that means offering great, immersive experiences -- not attaching ugly, pastel "Year of a Million Dreams" signs onto beautifully themed buildings.

But that doesn't change the fact that Disney is a business that needs to make decisions for business reasons.

I agree for the most part, that Disney, Inc., is a business, and needs to make smart decisions to stay in business for future generations. HOWEVER, the theme parks, particularly, DL & WDW, were never designed to be a "profit center." And that's from Walt himself...to him the theme parks were his/Disney, Inc's, gift to the "family" (and yes, however you probably want to define it these days) for supporting his movies. He didn't care whether they [the theme parks] made a profit - though Roy tried to make sure they didn't drain the corporation too much - and any profit was icing on the cake to them. Both of them saw Disney, Inc., from the "10,000 ft" perspective and knew that one side of the business was there to support the other side. They didn't "see" individual profit centers, but an integrated body.

I think the problem most of us have is that we bought into Walt's vision and then were told by subsequent management that we would have to pay for Walt's generosity to make the CEO and Board of Directors that came later rich. It's strange that while Walt was an artistic autocratic taskmaster (from what I've read and understand), he was not a wealthy person by today's standard as he put most of his, and the corporation's, money back into the business and parks, etc. Compare that to most of his successors who have used Disney, Inc. to make themselves wealthy, and you'll see why the majority of are frustrated by management's "business" decisions.

-R

 

[Horace Horsecollar]

HOWEVER, the theme parks, particularly, DL & WDW, were never designed to be a "profit center." And that's from Walt himself...to him the theme parks were his/Disney, Inc's, gift to the "family" (and yes, however you probably want to define it these days) for supporting his movies. He didn't care whether they [the theme parks] made a profit - though Roy tried to make sure they didn't drain the corporation too much - and any profit was icing on the cake to them.

It's necessary to separate the PR language from the business realities.

Disneyland was a business venture -- although a very risky business venture, to be sure -- not a "gift" from Uncle Walt to his fans. Walt had a vision . He believed that the public would pay. He was right.

The big difference from today is that the profits were plowed back into Disneyland.

 

[speedyf]

I think a 5th park will happen...but, probably not anytime soon. I agree with many others that I would rather see the existing parks improved before a 5th park was added.

As for feasibility...I know that the numbers were up this year for theme park attendence. Does anyone have pre-Animal Kingdom figures to see if the Animal Kingdom actually did attract more guests....or if it took away guests from the other 3 parks?

I know there is no official count...but, I remember seeing the total number for Disney World was around 42 million this year (4 parks). I'm just guessing that the 3 parks before Animal Kingdom were not bringing in 42 million guests per year? or maybe they were? I'm sure it would be something Disney could study easily to see if it would be worthwhile.

I would also be in favor of an expansion of the transportation system with a light rail from the TTA to Animal Kingdom and MGM or a monorail expansion if possible.

Since I'm a novice to this stuff...this may sound like a stupid question...but, would it be possible for RCID to add a 1% tax to onsite hotel reservations to pay for the expanded transportation?

I originally thought of charging a quarter to ride the bus or monorail...etc...but, figured the 1% tax or "transportation surcharge" would make more sense.

I mean...any time the government wants more money to fix roads, etc...they just up the taxes on us...why not Disney? Heck...I'm already paying $109 for a "value" room....what's another $1 per night to avoid a few buses.

At this point...I'm waiting for them to build "sub-value" resorts with 100 sq ft rooms with bunk beds. That way...families can afford to stay onsite again....

Speed