Why wait times have gotten crazy

[3DisneyFanz]

BTW, your theory about single rider lines and tiering doesn't really hold up, because if you look at the chart the data is pretty consistent from 2014 to 2015, and the one spike clearly seems to be an aberration. The average wait times are all in the range of 10-50 minutes and follow a very similar pattern year over year. Then suddenly there is the one entry with an average wait of 100 minutes, which is double the second highest number for the entire two year period. I think that's why he concludes that it is probably a technical glitch or wrong data.

That's fine for the single blip that spiked like that but again it's just a theory on why that occurred so who knows. Regardless you can still see that 2015 would be higher and I didn't go back and look but I'm fairly sure that RnR had an increase in the single rider line as well. But hey maybe it had a technical problem or bad data issue too and if it is the same for EE we'll just make the same assumption if it makes everyone feel better.

 

[WillAustin]

Because clearly, when people are in line for an attraction, they're not spending money, and based on the stats, people are spending more time in lines these days.

Or less time in the park.

 

[maxiesmom]

I think WDW already ties premium lodging to the resorts. For example, if you want to walk to a resort, you must stay in a Deluxe.

Yeah but the bus service from the deluxe resorts to the other parks is worse than the bus service from the values to the parks. At least in my experience it has been. So it evens out.

 

[maxiesmom]

As long as you have two or three butts ready for each seat when the ride vehicle is ready, you're as efficient as you can get.

Some of the continuously loading rides are somewhat slower due to frequent stoppages for guests who must transfer from ECVs or wheelchairs. Anecdotal reports of increasing numbers of ECVs and wheelchairs would lead me to believe these transfer stops are happening more frequently than in the past.

Consider, also, that in a system designed to run continuously from start to finish, like the Omnimover, frequent stops and starts place additional strain on the system components, increasing preventive maintenance requirements, accelerating wear, and causing more frequent breakdowns...

Not to mention the number of stops caused by guests getting out of their seats. I was lucky enough to just get off of the Peoplemover before hearing the dreaded "Some idiot got out of their seat so now we are stopping the ride" announcement. Maybe that is not an actual quote, but that is what they were saying. Heard the stay seated announcement while riding Splash, but at least they didn't stop the ride.

 

[epcotty]

Good stuff! I thought particularly interesting is the 4:1 ratio of FastPass to Standby riders on a typical ride! So even tho posted waits are higher, only 20% of guests are riding standby any more, the rest are going by FastPass. That is some crazy high usage.

I think everyone has to use standby sometimes, you can't Fastpass everything (or at least to do so would be extremely difficult). The quote from the article is "The default is around 80%, meaning 4 FastPass+ users will ride for every 1 standby guest" which means they take 4 FPs before 1 standby

 

[Mikie]

Well, considering that the original intent of legacy FP was NEVER to benefit the guest, but to increase guest spending, I'd say the whole system is flawed by a faulty premise. Because clearly, when people are in line for an attraction, they're not spending money, and based on the stats, people are spending more time in lines these days.

Aw crud, now I can't remember if it was from a data-based blog or from speculative posts here, but I thought I read that while standby waits are up slightly, with FP+ usage, overall waits for the average guest are shorter in total.

I thought we're seeing a flattening of the curve, where all riders are getting a similar (less-than-optimal) total wait time while the people who previously achieved optimal touring (effective use of FP legacy) are getting a worse experience and people who did not optimize legacy are getting a lower overall wait. Socialism in the parks! No one can excel, but the bottom performers have been brought upward. . . Whether that fits your definition of "fair" is up for debate.

 

[wisblue]

Well, considering that the original intent of legacy FP was NEVER to benefit the guest, but to increase guest spending, I'd say the whole system is flawed by a faulty premise. Because clearly, when people are in line for an attraction, they're not spending money, and based on the stats, people are spending more time in lines these days.

I disagree with your broad statement that people are now spending more time in lines.

Longer standby lines for some attractions does not necessarily translate to any particular guest, or even guests as a whole, spending more time in lines.

For example, if you take a ride that without FP would have a 60 minute wait all day long, every person in that line would be waiting 60 minutes to ride. If you devote 80% of that ride's capacity to FP, 80% of riders will only be waiting 10 minutes or less. So, for every 100 people that ride, 80 are waiting 10 minutes and 20 are waiting 60 minutes. That's a total of 2000 minutes that those 100 people waited, as compared to 6000 minutes otherwise.

Even if FP increases the standby wait time to 90 minutes, the total time waited for the 100 guests would only be 2600 minutes (if my math is right) still less than half of the total wait with everyone in standby.

How much time any one guest waits in line is obviously going to depend on what attractions they choose and how efficiently they tour. Someone who uses their 3 FPs wisely and hits as many attractions as possible at non peak times can easily do the same attractions with less waiting than if there were no FPs at all. Someone who is inefficient is going to spend more time in line, just as always.

Based on the studies done by both Touring Plans and easywdw, there are not that many attractions that have experienced significant increases in wait times. For the small percentage of guests that was getting 6 or 8 or 10 paper FPs per day, I would agree that that guest is either doing fewer attractions or spending more time in lines. But, the much higher percentage of guests who got no more than 1 or 2 FPs, or none at all, and are now taking advantage of their 3 FPs, are likely spending less time in lines.

 

[larryz]

Aw crud, now I can't remember if it was from a data-based blog or from speculative posts here, but I thought I read that while standby waits are up slightly, with FP+ usage, overall waits for the average guest are shorter in total.

I thought we're seeing a flattening of the curve, where all riders are getting a similar (less-than-optimal) total wait time while the people who previously achieved optimal touring (effective use of FP legacy) are getting a worse experience and people who did not optimize legacy are getting a lower overall wait. Socialism in the parks! No one can excel, but the bottom performers have been brought upward. . . Whether that fits your definition of "fair" is up for debate.

Just like in the stock markets, the only people getting rich are the ones selling the service...

 

[wisblue]

That's fine for the single blip that spiked like that but again it's just a theory on why that occurred so who knows. Regardless you can still see that 2015 would be higher and I didn't go back and look but I'm fairly sure that RnR had an increase in the single rider line as well. But hey maybe it had a technical problem or bad data issue too and if it is the same for EE we'll just make the same assumption if it makes everyone feel better.

OK, we're talking about 2 different things. Testa's comment about the technical problem was made in connection with Test Track, for which the average wait was only up a couple of minutes, but there was that one big blip.

But, his report on DHS did show a significant increase in the single rider line at RNRC. I don't think he made any comment about that at all.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

OK, we're talking about 2 different things. Testa's comment about the technical problem was made in connection with Test Track, for which the average wait was only up a couple of minutes, but there was that one big blip.

But, his report on DHS did show a significant increase in the single rider line at RNRC. I don't think he made any comment about that at all.

Ok. It still doesn't go against my thought that single rider times are up because of tiers. It's most likely more pronounced at HS because TSMM is a bigger draw.

 

[mesaboy2]

Completely anecdotal, but TT two weeks ago when I was there had a 50 minute wait around 6:00p--single rider. We passed.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

I disagree with your broad statement that people are now spending more time in lines.

Longer standby lines for some attractions does not necessarily translate to any particular guest, or even guests as a whole, spending more time in lines.

For example, if you take a ride that without FP would have a 60 minute wait all day long, every person in that line would be waiting 60 minutes to ride. If you devote 80% of that ride's capacity to FP, 80% of riders will only be waiting 10 minutes or less. So, for every 100 people that ride, 80 are waiting 10 minutes and 20 are waiting 60 minutes. That's a total of 2000 minutes that those 100 people waited, as compared to 6000 minutes otherwise.

Even if FP increases the standby wait time to 90 minutes, the total time waited for the 100 guests would only be 2600 minutes (if my math is right) still less than half of the total wait with everyone in standby.

How much time any one guest waits in line is obviously going to depend on what attractions they choose and how efficiently they tour. Someone who uses their 3 FPs wisely and hits as many attractions as possible at non peak times can easily do the same attractions with less waiting than if there were no FPs at all. Someone who is inefficient is going to spend more time in line, just as always.

Based on the studies done by both Touring Plans and easywdw, there are not that many attractions that have experienced significant increases in wait times. For the small percentage of guests that was getting 6 or 8 or 10 paper FPs per day, I would agree that that guest is either doing fewer attractions or spending more time in lines. But, the much higher percentage of guests who got no more than 1 or 2 FPs, or none at all, and are now taking advantage of their 3 FPs, are likely spending less time in lines.

If you use your three FP for PP, A&E and 7dmt then leave you've absolutely saved time. If you do those 3 and then only what you can get from the kiosks then you probably are too but I'm curious how many "average" guests do that. If the belief was that most people couldn't figure out how to use a legacy FP machine then I doubt the kiosks are magically better.

I suspect very few people are getting 4+ FP now and even the ones that are aren't saving 60 min on every additional FP. If you want to ride certain things your going to have to do SB. If SB is up then you're going to wait longer. The problem to me is that the headliners are pretty much stating stagnant from preFP+ days and the secondary ones are climbing. If the headliners dropped 20% and everything else went up 5% you might get savings but unfortunately that just isn't the case.

 

[wisblue]

Ok. It still doesn't go against my thought that single rider times are up because of tiers. It's most likely more pronounced at HS because TSMM is a bigger draw.

I'm not going to disagree. I just think Testa's comment was related to the spike. Otherwise he didn't really talk about single rider at all.

 

[wisblue]

If you use your three FP for PP, A&E and 7dmt then leave you've absolutely saved time. If you do those 3 and then only what you can get from the kiosks then you probably are too but I'm curious how many "average" guests do that. If the belief was that most people couldn't figure out how to use a legacy FP machine then I doubt the kiosks are magically better.

I suspect very few people are getting 4+ FP now and even the ones that are aren't saving 60 min on every additional FP. If you want to ride certain things your going to have to do SB. If SB is up then you're going to wait longer. The problem to me is that the headliners are pretty much stating stagnant from preFP+ days and the secondary ones are climbing. If the headliners dropped 20% and everything else went up 5% you might get savings but unfortunately that just isn't the case.

I'm not even talking about getting more than 3 FPs, or using 3 and leaving.

The guest who didn't get any FPs at all, and is now getting 3 to avoid 3 60 minute lines, is already about 2 1/2 hours ahead. Then if they do a few things early or late in the day with short waits, they really aren't waiting more than they did before for those. They can also do several more things with waits that are 10-15 minutes longer than they used to be and still come out ahead.

Guests who insist on trying to ride popular attractions in the middle of the day when standby lines are the longest are going to spend a lot of time in line. That has always been true.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

I'm not even talking about getting more than 3 FPs, or using 3 and leaving.

The guest who didn't get any FPs at all, and is now getting 3 to avoid 3 60 minute lines, is already about 2 1/2 hours ahead. Then if they do a few things early or late in the day with short waits, they really aren't waiting more than they did before for those. They can also do several more things with waits that are 10-15 minutes longer than they used to be and still come out ahead.

Guests who insist on trying to ride popular attractions in the middle of the day when standby lines are the longest are going to spend a lot of time in line. That has always been true.

I agree in best case scenario you can save time in the post FP+ world. However considering people are using FP for things like parades and fireworks they aren't skipping lines there especially since they aren't just showing up 5 min from start of the "shows".

I'd really like to know the number of people who get FP for three 60 min waits as I suspect at MK a lot of them are used on things that smaller kids would do so PP is really the only mega time saver. Those people are the ones most impacted by the longer SB times and may also be the ones who FP Laugh Floor.

 

[wisblue]

I agree in best case scenario you can save time in the post FP+ world. However considering people are using FP for things like parades and fireworks they aren't skipping lines there especially since they aren't just showing up 5 min from start of the "shows".

I'd really like to know the number of people who get FP for three 60 min waits as I suspect at MK a lot of them are used on things that smaller kids would do so PP is really the only mega time saver. Those people are the ones most impacted by the longer SB times and may also be the ones who FP Laugh Floor.

This gets at my main point. People have so many different preferences, levels of experience, and touring styles, that the broad statement that got this started ("people are spending more time in lines") can't be supported.

If people want a FP for a parade or fireworks, they are getting themselves something that is useful to them. Maybe they would rather wait 10 more minutes for a ride in exchange for a more comfortable spot to view a show.

Unless you know how many and what types of rides the average guest does in the first place, you can't make general statements about whether they are doing more or less or waiting in more lines.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

This gets at my main point. People have so many different preferences, levels of experience, and touring styles, that the broad statement that got this started ("people are spending more time in lines") can't be supported.

If people want a FP for a parade or fireworks, they are getting themselves something that is useful to them. Maybe they would rather wait 10 more minutes for a ride in exchange for a more comfortable spot to view a show.

Unless you know how many and what types of rides the average guest does in the first place, you can't make general statements about whether they are doing more or less or waiting in more lines.

Your point was that people are waiting less time in line. Once it was pointed out that you don't get 60 min savings in most cases it's now about knowing someone touring preference which is a completely different argument and not your original point at all. Regardless if you pick a parade, fireworks or both and then want to do other attractions you're going to wait longer in lines then you used to.

 

[capegirl]

Just my two cents. We've had both positive and negative experiences with FP+. Sure, It was fun to sit at my PC in the comfort of my home and plan our days, and attractions.
It was a relief to know that I did not have to race through the park the moment we arrived to retrieve a paper FP for everyone. Then reality set in; we were basically locked into our park days, and there would be consequences for changing our schedule. Stuff happens on vacation. We could wake up
to a horrible weather forecast, (strong possibility in Florida), and decide to resort hop rather than spend a wet and miserable day at the MK, but if we change things up, we can kiss our FP's goodbye. Booking the same must do attractions for the following day may prove difficult, if not impossible depending on crowd levels. This is what I find disappointing when it comes to FP+, the feeling that our family cannot change the course of our vacation without giving up something that is important to us. We also found the SB lines for minor attractions to be longer when we were in the parks in mid April; we'll see what happens when we return in July.
Here's the thing.
There are just way too many variables within vacation styles, and unexpected issues, to declare that if something works for you, it should also work for the next person. You can thank your lucky stars
if you enjoyed a spectacular, glitch free Disney vacation, I am happy for you; this is something that we all hope for. If FP+ caused you grief, I feel for you, and if you decide to give it another try I am sure that you will find a strategy to make it work for your family. My apologies for rambling on, I've been thinking about FP+ since our last vacation, and it all spilled out into this post.

 

[wisblue]

Your point was that people are waiting less time in line. Once it was pointed out that you don't get 60 min savings in most cases it's now about knowing someone touring preference which is a completely different argument and not your original point at all. Regardless if you pick a parade, fireworks or both and then want to do other attractions you're going to wait longer in lines then you used to.

No, my original point was disagreeing with the broad statement that data shows that people are spending more time in lines. I'm sure there are some people who spend more time in lines and some people who spend less. It all depends on what you do and when you do it.

It's just like I disagree with other general statements, like one made earlier in this thread that nobody is able to do more because of FP+.

 

[Planogirl]

Just my two cents. We've had both positive and negative experiences with FP+. Sure, It was fun to sit at my PC in the comfort of my home and plan our days, and attractions.
It was a relief to know that I did not have to race through the park the moment we arrived to retrieve a paper FP for everyone. Then reality set in; we were basically locked into our park days, and there would be consequences for changing our schedule. Stuff happens on vacation. We could wake up
to a horrible weather forecast, (strong possibility in Florida), and decide to resort hop rather than spend a wet and miserable day at the MK, but if we change things up, we can kiss our FP's goodbye. Booking the same must do attractions for the following day may prove difficult, if not impossible depending on crowd levels. This is what I find disappointing when it comes to FP+, the feeling that our family cannot change the course of our vacation without giving up something that is important to us. We also found the SB lines for minor attractions to be longer when we were in the parks in mid April; we'll see what happens when we return in July.
Here's the thing.
There are just way too many variables within vacation styles, and unexpected issues, to declare that if something works for you, it should also work for the next person. You can thank your lucky stars
if you enjoyed a spectacular, glitch free Disney vacation, and I am happy for you; this is something that we all hope for. If FP+ caused you grief, I feel for you, and if you decide to give it another try I am sure that you will find a strategy to make it work for your family. My apologies for rambling on, I've been thinking about FP+ since our last vacation, and it all spilled out into this post.

Sensible rambling IMO.

I agree. The loss of spontaneity has been troubling for us. I keep looking at our schedule and wondering "what if" when it comes to weather and how our group feels but with a few difficult to get ADR's (and penalties if we don't cancel in time) and some very desired FP+ I know that changing at the last minute would be very difficult. I miss the days of making ADR's at the kiosks in the Spaceship Earth building and getting legacy wherever we happened to be.