Why wait times have gotten crazy

[Planogirl]

Sure, Touring Plans and easywdw have the data about posted wait times and both did year over year comparisons of those wait times last year.

But, that data doesn't (and can't) answer the question about whether guests are spending more time waiting in lines than they were before. Guests who tour efficiently, and use their FPs effectively to avoid some long lines, don't have to wait in those longer lines.

I would bet that a guest who enters the park in late morning or early afternoon armed with FPs for 3 popular attractions is spending less time waiting in lines than they would have doing the same thing with just the paper FP system or no FPs at all. This would especially be true on days when the parks are more crowded. And I think Disney wants to spread out the crowds by allowing guests to get FPs for popular attractions at preferred times without having to arrive at the park in the first few hours.

They might be waiting less for those three rides than they did before but we don't know about any other rides and we also don't know how many of them used legacy for the same three rides. As for spreading out the crowds, they were always spread out at least for those attractions that ran out of fastpasses. I would guess that every ride only allows so many to use fastpasses each hour and if more are using FP+ then more FP+ are being distributed than legacy which just shifts people from the standby line to the fastpass line. The same number of people will ride per hour no matter which line they come from.

 

[cassie58]

I think I need to elaborate my above post. As an example, on TSMM, the standby line is, let's say, 60 minutes. But if you have a fast pass, you'd wait, say 5 minutes. Let more standby go than what it is now so that the 60 becomes 40 and less FP+ so that it's wait becomes 10-15 minutes. I'd rather have more standby lines become shorter than have three rides be immediate.

Totally agree - this makes perfect sense, and seemed to be the way it worked with the paper FP - not sure why it changed - not looking forward to our upcoming trip at a busier time than we're used to along with this knowledge! Hoping to get there before RD and take advantage of the EMH.

 

[MrInfinity]

FP+ doesn't put anyone on equal footing. The person who checks in on Friday has earlier dibs than the person who checked in on Saturday who has a better shot than the person who checked in on Sunday.

Sure we're equal. I'm not "given" my checkin date, and you are not yours. We both choose them freely. I may choose one that allows me to book FastPasses on a certain date, but you could also choose that date and get the exact same thing. No one has any inherent advantage over you that you could not also gain if you wanted it.

I don't get this notion that FP+ is better because more people know to use it. If people didn't understand how to use legacy that's on Disney. Why wouldn't they educate people just as much as they do now ? It makes absolutely no sense.

Also, more of any group isn't riding certain rides and meeting more characters. Just as many people as before are doing so, the lines are just distributed differently. Capacity isn't changed by FP+.

I totally agree! The lines are just distributed differently. More people are riding the rides by FastPass than by Standby. That is all it really does. The lines are different, and Disney gets better data. And by most guests riding Standby, they are spending less time in line.

Also it's not a matter of just promoting the system. The system has to be intuitive for it to take off. It has to be GOOD. You cannot have an unacceptable product, promote it, and have it be widely accepted. Take New Coke for example. Promoted thru the roof, but people did not like it. FP+ on the other hand is promoted thru the roof, but people are liking it and using it because it's on their phone and the Disney target audience is naturally drawn to their phones these days.

Because clearly, when people are in line for an attraction, they're not spending money, and based on the stats, people are spending more time in lines these days.

What do you mean "based on the stats, people are spending more time in line"... did you actually read the stats? A) standby lines are slightly longer. Great. But B) 4 out of 5 people are now riding via FastPass. That is HUGE. Longer line does not mean guests are waiting longer, just 20% of guests are. 80% of guests are waiting LESS by using FastPass.

If you use your three FP for PP, A&E and 7dmt then leave you've absolutely saved time. If you do those 3 and then only what you can get from the kiosks then you probably are too but I'm curious how many "average" guests do that.

Sure you're saving time if you do that. That's 3 one-hour waits saved! You used to get on that fast, before so it's not a big deal to you. But for most guests, this is 3 hours saved.

 

[Hudson Hornet]

For my family and I, FP+ is a great relief for the 3 main attractions that we want to do that day, but it is almost impossible to a fourth that we actually want, so I still find myself waiting in longer lines than with the old paper system. While the old system had the drawback of having to get there bright and early to secure decent return times, it also allowed me to get more FPs because I could hit all the FP rides like a mail route and go through non-FP attractions while I waited for my time. It was a lot of footwork, but if I was willin to do it, it had a better payoff.

 

[patdoc98]

It is strange that the Mine Train FP return line is always so short. I found the Peter Pan FP return line to be completely crammed and in the walkway in the evenings. Dinosaur has a backed up FP return line often too. The RnRC did not seem to be affected. I sure can't find a pattern for this.

It would be really helpful to have more information on average FP return times, and how much this differs throughout the day. It would make sense that a FP return for Peter Pan at 3 pm, if the posted standby wait time is 90 minutes, would take longer than a FP used at 10 am, when the posted wait is 45 minutes. Maybe it would take twice as long? I've also had the experience of Mine Train having almost zero wait with FP, while Soarin' and TSMM still had pretty long waits (over 10 minutes with FP). But my experience is very limited.

More information would definitely affect which FPs we picked, and when we might use them.

 

[Laz]

Also it's not a matter of just promoting the system. The system has to be intuitive for it to take off. It has to be GOOD. You cannot have an unacceptable product, promote it, and have it be widely accepted. Take New Coke for example. Promoted thru the roof, but people did not like it. FP+ on the other hand is promoted thru the roof, but people are liking it and using it because it's on their phone and the Disney target audience is naturally drawn to their phones these days.

Your New Coke example could be quite relative. Taste tests proved time and again that people preferred a sweeter taste. New Coke was suppose to satisfy a definite consume want. However, what Coke failed to take into account was that Coca Cola is an institution. The taste, the bottle, the name, etc. all work together that brings back fond memories. It took many years to develop that type of brand awareness. It wasn't the taste that killed New Coke, it was the lack of proper research. When Coke Classic was re introduced, it sold like gangbusters. Could WDW be in the somewhat the same situation with established customers like myself? (I will not go back to WDW because of FP+, but choose DLR)

 

[lugnut33]

For one park per day of your visit, secure up to 3 FastPass+ selections for popular attractions like Big Thunder Mountain Railroad and Mission: SPACE and entertainment choices such as Fantasmic! and Indiana Jones Epic Stunt Spectacular! There are even FastPass+ picks for Character Greetings where you’ll meet the likes of Mickey Mouse and Cinderella, and special viewing areas for parades and fireworks.

Taken right from the Disney website. Notice there is no mention at all about 7DMT, A&E, TT, Soarin', TSMM, and other very popular attractions. All those listed are easy to get FPs.

 

[WillAustin]

A) standby lines are slightly longer. Great. But B) 4 out of 5 people are now riding via FastPass. That is HUGE. Longer line does not mean guests are waiting longer, just 20% of guests are. 80% of guests are waiting LESS by using FastPass.

Sure you're saving time if you do that. That's 3 one-hour waits saved! You used to get on that fast, before so it's not a big deal to you. But for most guests, this is 3 hours saved.

That's a flawed analysis of the numbers. Maybe if everyone was riding exactly the same number of rides, and every standby line was always long, it might make sense, but that's not reality. You can't extrapolate out from an assumption that every person is riding the same rides they would have without FP+ or is waiting/not waiting in the same lines. The 80% number isn't huge, it doesn't mean anything.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

Sure we're equal. I'm not "given" my checkin date, and you are not yours. We both choose them freely. I may choose one that allows me to book FastPasses on a certain date, but you could also choose that date and get the exact same thing. No one has any inherent advantage over you that you could not also gain if you wanted it.

Even you can't believe this.

 

[MrInfinity]

That's a flawed analysis of the numbers. Maybe if everyone was riding exactly the same number of rides, and every standby line was always long, it might make sense, but that's not reality. You can't extrapolate out from an assumption that every person is riding the same rides they would have without FP+ or is waiting/not waiting in the same lines. The 80% number isn't huge, it doesn't mean anything.

80% of riders are now waiting by FastPass and not Standby "doesn't mean anything to you?" Well ok then there really isn't much to talk about if numbers like that are not meaningful to you.

Take any ride.

Space Mountain. Say it accommodates 20,000 riders. In FP- days:
4,000 people go FP- in 20 min (80,000 minutes)
16,000 people go Standby in 60 min (960,000 minutes)
Average wait time: 52 min

Now SB and FP+ lines are longer? Ok:
16,000 people go FP+ in 30 min (480,000 minutes)
4,000 people go Standby in 75 min (300,000 minutes)
Average wait time: 39 minutes

Can't you see? Although both the standby line and the fastpass line are longer, because now guests are 4:1 going by FastPass, waits are down. Guests are spending less time in line, on average, given some are spending more, but many more are spending less. The 20,000 riders who rode this yesterday, spent less total time in line than the 20,000 riders who rode it several years ago under FP- because they are mostly riding by FastPass now.

Disney was absolutely successful in getting guests out of the lines. Since the rides are almost all devoted to FP+ capacity. The TP revelation was so much wider acceptance than even I anticipated. I thought it was on the order of around 50% FP+ vs Standby, but they're saying 4:1 which is absolutely crazy usage levels. Now before you might have ridden Space Mountain twice in a day by FastPass (we sure did!) so we could ride twice in 40 min. Now you simply can't do that, Disney blocks you after the first riding, and ensures everyone else that wanted to will get to ride once in the FP+ lane before you'll get a 2nd riding. But if you want to wait it out, you can ride twice in 30 min and then 75 min. You (and I) lose. But so many other guests win it is just crazy.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

I'm really amazed that one of the biggest knocks on the legacy system was that it was underutilized because the average guest didn't understand it. Yet all of a sudden the average guest is going to know 60 days out that they need to lock into SM, 7dmt and A&E.

 

[MrInfinity]

I'm really amazed that one of the biggest knocks on the legacy system was that it was underutilized because the average guest didn't understand it. Yet all of a sudden the average guest is going to know 60 days out that they need to lock into SM, 7dmt and A&E.

I get what you're saying about not understanding it... it's not rocket science, anyone can put your card in and get a ticket. Right? But the difference is...

FP- was unintuitive. In the sense that a typical guest arrives, looks around, takes some pictures, says to each other "what should we go on?" and they go to a ride! They do not think... Hey maybe there's a more efficient way... let's go to this ride, but not ride it. Let's get a ticket, go away, and come back later to ride it with less waiting... nor did they then think that while they hold this ticket, they should already be thinking about how to acquire another ticket, then come back and ride this later. That is beyond the day-of grasp of most people who can't get past "what should we do now?"

FP+ comes to you in advance. By doing this, every Joe Schmo who would get to the park has already had months to pick out some rides. In fact you can hardly book your trip without being coaxed into doing it. Then when they show up, now they have a pseudo-plan already on their phone! They will still show up and go "what should we go on first"? But, they now have 3 FastPasses, which they will make a point to use because they're there. FastPasses that used to be gotten by the likes of you and I, are now going to every Joe Schmo that used to wait Standby for everything.

You don't have to know to get on at 60 days and lock in A&E and SDMT. That is a benefit that we as power-tourers know to do. It is our new edge over the other guests. But those guests are picking something, and even if it's a week before their trip, maybe they're locking in Space Mountain, Pirates, and Jungle Cruise. Who cares if they are less than perfectly optimal. They'll pick their favorite rides that are available, and that is 3 more FastPasses than they used to get.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

I get what you're saying about not understanding it... it's not rocket science, anyone can put your card in and get a ticket. Right? But the difference is...

FP- was unintuitive. In the sense that a typical guest arrives, looks around, takes some pictures, says to each other "what should we go on?" and they go to a ride! They do not think... Hey maybe there's a more efficient way... let's go to this ride, but not ride it. Let's get a ticket, go away, and come back later to ride it with less waiting... nor did they then think that while they hold this ticket, they should go ride other things, maybe acquire another ticket, then come back and ride this later. That is beyond the day-of grasp of most people who can't get past "what should we do now?"

FP+ comes to you in advance. By doing this, every Joe Schmo who would get to the park has already had months to pick out some rides. In fact you can hardly book your trip without being coaxed into doing it. Then when they show up, now they have a pseudo-plan already on their phone! They will still show up and go "what should we go on first"? But, they now have 3 FastPasses, which they will make a point to use because they're there. FastPasses that used to be gotten by the likes of you and I, are now going to every Joe Schmo that used to wait Standby for everything.

You don't have to know to get on at 60 days and lock in A&E and SDMT. That is a benefit that we as power-tourers know to do. It is our new edge over the other guests. But those guests are picking something, and even if it's a week before their trip, maybe they're locking in Space Mountain, Pirates, and Jungle Cruise. Who cares if they are less than perfectly optimal. They'll pick their favorite rides that are available, and that is 3 more FastPasses than they used to get.

Of course the other side of that is that many people are FPing things that didn't need a FP before. For everyone who got their FP for the mountains there's just as like to be someone who FP Laugh Floor, Philharmagic and Tea Party and then ends up standing in line for the mountains.

 

[MrInfinity]

Of course the other side of that is that many people are FPing things that didn't need a FP before. For everyone who got their FP for the mountains there's just as like to be someone who FP Laugh Floor, Philharmagic and Tea Party and then ends up standing in line for the mountains.

Do you have a problem with that? That's good for us. We want an advantage. As long as people chose unwisely to not use FP-, we were okay with them waiting standby. If now they pick Laugh Floor, that's better for us. People touring sub-optimally is what made touring optimally an advantage. Now the effect is lessened because most people are touring a little less inefficiently than they used to.

 

[dlavender]

80% of riders are now waiting by FastPass and not Standby "doesn't mean anything to you?" Well ok then there really isn't much to talk about if numbers like that are not meaningful to you.

Take any ride.

Space Mountain. Say it accommodates 20,000 riders. In FP- days:
4,000 people go FP- in 20 min (80,000 minutes)
16,000 people go Standby in 60 min (960,000 minutes)
Average wait time: 52 min

Now SB and FP+ lines are longer? Ok:
16,000 people go FP+ in 30 min (480,000 minutes)
4,000 people go Standby in 75 min (300,000 minutes)
Average wait time: 39 minutes

Can't you see? Although both the standby line and the fastpass line are longer, because now guests are 4:1 going by FastPass, waits are down. Guests are spending less time in line, on average, given some are spending more, but many more are spending less. The 20,000 riders who rode this yesterday, spent less total time in line than the 20,000 riders who rode it several years ago under FP- because they are mostly riding by FastPass now.

Disney was absolutely successful in getting guests out of the lines. Since the rides are almost all devoted to FP+ capacity. The TP revelation was so much wider acceptance than even I anticipated. I thought it was on the order of around 50% FP+ vs Standby, but they're saying 4:1 which is absolutely crazy usage levels. Now before you might have ridden Space Mountain twice in a day by FastPass (we sure did!) so we could ride twice in 40 min. Now you simply can't do that, Disney blocks you after the first riding, and ensures everyone else that wanted to will get to ride once in the FP+ lane before you'll get a 2nd riding. But if you want to wait it out, you can ride twice in 30 min and then 75 min. You (and I) lose. But so many other guests win it is just crazy.

I think what you are missing is the increase in second tier attractions. Sure you may save an avg of 10 mins on Space Mountain, but see a second tier example below:

Buzz Lightyear Say it accommodates 20,000 riders. In FP- days:
4,000 people go FP- in 10 min (40,000 minutes)
16,000 people go Standby in 30 min (480000 minutes)
Average wait time: 26 min

Now SB and FP+ lines are longer? Ok:
16,000 people go FP+ in 20 min (320000 minutes)
4,000 people go Standby in 60 min (240000 minutes)
Average wait time: 28 minutes

So, for the secondary attractions, you are waiting longer. Multiply that by 5 or 6 secondary attractions, and you are waiting about the same, or longer than you were before. And even if you break even, you gave up flexibility to break even.
I don't think FP + is going anywhere, so we will have to learn to accept it in one way or another. I just don't buy that it is saving me any time. Because it isnt. As I said previously, its a big shiny box filled with nothing. It is just an illusion.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

Do you have a problem with that? That's good for us. We want an advantage. As long as people chose unwisely to not use FP-, we were okay with them waiting standby. If now they pick Laugh Floor, that's great for us. People touring sub-optimally is what made touring optimally an advantage. Now the effect is lessened because most people are touring a little less inefficiently than they used to.

It doesn't really bother me. If you want to spend all day FP the Teacups that's cool with me. What I was wanting to point out is that despite many arguments to the contrary this system isnt ensuring efficiency and the increase in SB lines is going to impact a larger pool of the visitors. I think the extremes are the examples of getting A&E, 7dmt and SM as well as Laugh Floor, Philharmagic and Tea Party but most people land in the middle. Unless you just decide to skip attractions everyone is going to be impacted by longer lines at the other attractions.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

As I said previously, its a big shiny box filled with nothing. It is just an illusion.

Maybe this is the real David Copperfield attraction that was advertised all those years ago.

 

[MrInfinity]

I think what you are missing is the increase in second tier attractions.
Buzz Lightyear Say it accommodates 20,000 riders. In FP- days:
4,000 people go FP- in 10 min (40,000 minutes)
16,000 people go Standby in 30 min (480000 minutes)
Average wait time: 26 min

Now SB and FP+ lines are longer? Ok:
16,000 people go FP+ in 20 min (320000 minutes)
4,000 people go Standby in 30 min (120000 minutes)
Average wait time: 22 minutes -- 4 minutes LESS

So, for the secondary attractions, you are waiting longer. Multiply that by 5 or 6 secondary attractions, and you are waiting about the same, or longer than you were before. And even if you break even, you gave up flexibility to break even.
I don't think FP + is going anywhere, so we will have to learn to accept it in one way or another. I just don't buy that it is saving me any time. Because it isnt. As I said previously, its a big shiny box filled with nothing. It is just an illusion.

It's 1pm in Florida, on a Monday (regarded as bad MK days). According to the app, Buzz is 35 min. It was in 2010, 2012, 2014, (we rode this lots) and still is, today. This is the busiest time of the day, and the wait will only be about this much or a little longer, but was certainly shorter earlier, and will be shorter later as well. Changing this time to be more in line with what we're actually seeing, you can see how it affects the numbers above. (by the way I think your other numbers of the FP line going from 10 min to 20 min are approximately what I would guess as well)

 

[dlavender]

It's 1pm in Florida, on a Monday (regarded as bad MK days). According to the app, Buzz is 35 min. It was in 2010, 2012, 2014, (we rode this lots) and still is, today. This is the busiest time of the day, and the wait will only be about this much or a little longer, but was certainly shorter earlier, and will be shorter later as well. Changing this time to be more in line with what we're actually seeing, you can see how it affects the numbers above. (by the way I think your other numbers of the FP line going from 10 min to 20 min are approximately what I would guess as well)

Are we using averages, or the moment right now?

 

[dlavender]

For a glance at how busy today is, 7DMT has a 60 min stand by wait. It didn't even have that low at 11 PM on a Saturday. So I don't think that using today's numbers is really productive? But I guess we can do an hour by hour analysis, everyday....Then see which hour which day FP + benefits or hurts us. Or, we could just use the average....