Why wait times have gotten crazy

[Triple Trouble]

It would make sense that one of the parameters in their analytics is SB wait times. In a basic sense, if the SB wait times are not above a certain threshold they will not bring more plant capacity on line. They are trying to maintain the predetermined optimum level. This might end up looking like homogenized wait times across crowd levels. Since they are new at this I expect there would be some errors, with excess/insufficient capacity at very odd times (at least to you and I).

 

[Angel Ariel]

OK, you threw me off with the "than just 1 extra FP+" reason you gave, how about longer EMH (like they used to) but additional FP+ during it.

We have never found FP or FP+ to be necessary during EMH. I'd love it if they restored longer EMH, though.

 

[Happy_2_B]

Just an FYI. First blog addressing wait times is up at touringplans.com. Today is DHS- rest of the parks will follow.

http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/1...imes-at-disneys-hollywood-studios/#more-99929

 

[MrInfinity]

Just an FYI. First blog addressing wait times is up at touringplans.com. Today is DHS- rest of the parks will follow.

http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/1...imes-at-disneys-hollywood-studios/#more-99929

Good stuff! I thought particularly interesting is the 4:1 ratio of FastPass to Standby riders on a typical ride! So even tho posted waits are higher, only 20% of guests are riding standby any more, the rest are going by FastPass. That is some crazy high usage.

 

[tlmadden73]

Just an FYI. First blog addressing wait times is up at touringplans.com. Today is DHS- rest of the parks will follow.

http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/1...imes-at-disneys-hollywood-studios/#more-99929

Interesting read. Can't wait to see MK.
DHS is an interesting beast because
1) There are only 5 "rides"
2) Those 5 rides are really the only things worth getting Fast Passes for (usually)

After finally riding Toy Story Midway Mania in August (always felt standby lines were too long) .. I can see why it is always a long line. It is fun .. it is repeatable .. it is one of two rides at the park that kids of all ages can (and want) to go on .. and it is a slow loading ride.
I thank FP+ as being the main reason I was finally able to get on that ride after two trips to Hollywood Studios (before FP+)

The closed attractions make sense at increasing wait times. There is only so much to do at DHS right now (and you figure it will just decrease until the new lands are ready).

 

[GreatLakes]

They are supposed to send those cards with guests every so often, but if they don't, then there is no way to the times are even remotely correct.

I think those cards are going to be replaced by analytics from the MBs soon enough. There is no reason to use random samples for wait times when they have the means to track the wait time of every single person in every single line in every single park using RFID. I doubt that is implemented yet but really should be on the project plan.

Very interesting read. I just have one comment.

As someone in the data industry, it would be very unusual for WDW not to use the data from the FP+ and bands to "right size" all of their operations. This would include all staff, all rides, food carts, cash registers, trash removal, replenishment carts, lighting, heat, etc. etc. Therefore, I would bet both the FP+ effect and the "plant efficiencies" are to blame for added wait times.

Again. It would be very VERY unusual to have this data and not adjust the plant to optimize the final outcome. Unfortunately, the adjustment is meant bring the final product as close to the designated "optimum level" as possible ("optimum" is the quality level that is designated by the company as the minimum acceptable level). To get more than the "optimum level" you will have to pay more. The problem arises when that optimum level erodes over time as a way to increase profits. This is very common in manufacturing.

I think we will see much more use of the data in MM+ for exactly this kind of staffing. I've also been saying that they will be using the data in MM+ for bus routing to try and eliminate nearly empty bus routes as best they can. It may mean slightly longer waits if you are going to an unpopular place but I've been the only person on a bus before and that is a waste of resources. Even worse I've seen empty buses stop at empty bus stops and leave with no one on them. That is a total waste and completely avoidable if the MM+ infrastructure is used properly.

MM+ is as fun of a product as any ride in the parks IMO. I would love to get a glimpse behind that curtain.

 

[NYHeel]

The standby wait times may start to fall a little at DHS as people who don't get or have the FPs they want just don't bother coming to DHS. So while capacity stays low for the next 2 years, attendance may continue to drop during that time.

 

[ArwenMarie]

So closing rides and more people using FP+ per hour increases wait times (at DHS)

Glad to hear they aren't intentionally lowering capacity according to this anyway.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

That's a lot of data to support the general understanding that wait times are up due to FP+ and lack of attractions.

 

[flicx]

After reading the article the real question is what was Disney thinking? They had a viable system in legacy and according to early data a lot of the extra wait times stems from closures at the studios. So had Disney spent the money on new attractions and not a redo of legacy we wouldn't have these longer wait times! That is exactly what so many of us have been saying all along!

 

[Praying Colonel]

The standby wait times may start to fall a little at DHS as people who don't get or have the FPs they want just don't bother coming to DHS. So while capacity stays low for the next 2 years, attendance may continue to drop during that time.

We'll still go but we'll spend less time in the park. I think most of our DHS days will be over by noon.

 

[BroganMc]

After reading the article the real question is what was Disney thinking? They had a viable system in legacy and according to early data a lot of the extra wait times stems from closures at the studios. So had Disney spent the money on new attractions and not a redo of legacy we wouldn't have these longer wait times! That is exactly what so many of us have been saying all along!

MyMagic was sold to corporate by some number-crunchers who correlated ride reservations with short waits and guests spending more money in the parks on food and merchandise. I'd love to see the actual sales numbers. Are they getting more people buying stuff because they're free to do more stuff?

I've noticed an uncomfortable level of crowds in the parks which makes me not want to be in them. I do far less when in a park, which makes me spend less and ultimately decide to visit the parks fewer days. DHS and AK may add more capacity but we're still a couple years from seeing that.

 

[Hudson Hornet]

MyMagic was sold to corporate by some number-crunchers who correlated ride reservations with short waits and guests spending more money in the parks on food and merchandise. I'd love to see the actual sales numbers. Are they getting more people buying stuff because they're free to do more stuff?

I've noticed an uncomfortable level of crowds in the parks which makes me not want to be in them. I do far less when in a park, which makes me spend less and ultimately decide to visit the parks fewer days. DHS and AK may add more capacity but we're still a couple years from seeing that.

I don't have the numbers, but my gut feeling is NO WAY! Looking at the number of people waiting in standby line, there can't be that many people just riding their FP rides and then going shopping. If there is an increase in sales, I'd venture that it is a result of having more warm bodies in the parks, and not because of FP. Again, that's just from the old eye test and not from statistics and sales numbers. But even if their numbers are up, a correlation does not mean causation.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

I don't have the numbers, but my gut feeling is NO WAY! Looking at the number of people waiting in standby line, there can't be that many people just riding their FP rides and then going shopping. If there is an increase in sales, I'd venture that it is a result of having more warm bodies in the parks, and not because of FP. Again, that's just from the old eye test and not from statistics and sales numbers. But even if their numbers are up, a correlation does not mean causation.

I think what you are seeing is the result of decision makers that don't understand theme park guests or operations.

 

[Happy_2_B]

Blog number two is up. Here is the link:

http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/10/30/whats-up-with-wait-times-at-epcot/#more-100128

The data and research is desperately needed because even though I have my personal 'guesses' as to what is going on- professional statisticians, along with having people in the park every day taking counts and observing patterns, should be able to get to the bottom of it faster and more efficiently that I can sitting at home behind a computer screen surmising 'this and that' about the situation with nothing but hot air to back up my claims. Touringplans lead statistician, Fred, used to work at Statistics Canada- and their other statistician, Steve, worked at the Centers for Disease Control. They don't get it right all the time- no one does- but they have more of an idea of what they're doing than I do- and although I am concerned what the new model will do to my customized touring plans- at least I will be going to the park armed with way more information than I previously had.

 

[Hudson Hornet]

I think what you are seeing is the result of decision makers that don't understand theme park guests or operations.

The conspiracy theorist in me says that a corporation like Disney knows exactly what it's doing, and that is making it miserable to be in stand by, so that once you are done with FP for the day you will give up and just go eat and shop. Again, no proof and no data. I am just always suspicious of big business.

 

[EricInPA]

The conspiracy theorist in me says that a corporation like Disney knows exactly what it's doing, and that is making it miserable to be in stand by, so that once you are done with FP for the day you will give up and just go eat and shop. Again, no proof and no data. I am just always suspicious of big business.

They've recently renovated queue lines to make them interactive as well as experimenting with less "lining up" queue lines (Dumbo), so I'm not sure about that.

 

[Mikie]

The conspiracy theorist in me says that a corporation like Disney knows exactly what it's doing, and that is making it miserable to be in stand by, so that once you are done with FP for the day you will give up and just go eat and shop. Again, no proof and no data. I am just always suspicious of big business.

I'm not opposed to conspiracy theories, but I know I'm more likely to shop when I'm happy than miserable, and more likely to commemorate fun times with a cool souvenir after a ride, than shopping instead of attractions. . . I think miserable standby (or miserable anything) =/= more shopping and I believe Disney knows that.

 

[ArwenMarie]

The conspiracy theorist in me says that a corporation like Disney knows exactly what it's doing, and that is making it miserable to be in stand by, so that once you are done with FP for the day you will give up and just go eat and shop. Again, no proof and no data. I am just always suspicious of big business.

Yes, I think part of all of this is a move to have people spend less times in the parks and more time at their Disney resorts and Disney Springs (newly renovated!)

 

[wisblue]

The conspiracy theorist in me says that a corporation like Disney knows exactly what it's doing, and that is making it miserable to be in stand by, so that once you are done with FP for the day you will give up and just go eat and shop. Again, no proof and no data. I am just always suspicious of big business.

I don't think this really makes sense because if that was the objective they would eliminate FP altogether and make almost everyone who wants to experience the park's most popular attractions wait in the lines of an hour or more, knowing that a lot of people would not be willing to do that. I suspect that they also know that a guest who doesn't get to do any of those most popular attractions without waiting that long is not likely to go home happy.

If you look at this whole thing from the perspective of an average guest, and not just experienced users who took maximum advantage of the paper FP system, your conclusions might be a lot different.

I am following the Touring Plans items with great interest because, taken together with the blog post that they published last year, we will be getting their analysis of not just why standby lines are up, but how much they have gone up since FP+ was put into place. And those analyses will be based on lots of data, and not just occasional and random anecdotal observations.