Why is everyone so concerned with the new Poly tower

[tidefan]

If Disney didn’t see a benefit in maintaining Riviera resale restrictions, they wouldn’t be there. There’s also zero evidence that Disney doesn’t like having a studio only resort. The lack of ROFR on Poly, as I’m sure you know, can also indicate that Poly2 will be in a separate association.

I think it would have been a reach to see VGF2, a quickly converted older hotel wing with zero amenities of its own, formed with a separate association, so I don’t think its status has any bearing on this discussion. But VDH, Poly2, and Riviera exist on an entirely different level, all being huge new builds costing hundreds of millions of dollars. These and other resorts down the line are the reason for the restrictions. And they work! I bought a bunch of direct VGF points specifically to book Riviera at 7 months, and potentially other yet to be built resorts in the future.

If VDH has the restrictions, so will Poly2. It would otherwise undermine DVD’s long term goal of competing more effectively with resale, and confuse buyers.

As a VGF1 owner, I sure do wish they made it into a separate association though. I have no desire to stay in the hotel rooms.

You’re right, there is a diminishing return on a 40 year contract, but it’s a long enough time that I don’t think it would prevent a shiny new resort selling if buyers really liked it.

It’s certainly not stopping healthy sales (and prices) of BCV and BWV, and those only have about 19 years left.

You are correct, but I think it's to a point. I do think it is affecting sales of VGF2 in comparison to RIV. RIV may have resale restrictions (that would give me, personally, pause as a first-time buyer as it would be harder to sell down the road if I needed to) but balancing that is that it has 6 more years on the contract than VGF does. I think that extra 6 years is a big part of why RIV sales are higher than VGF2 (other than, well, with VGF2 all you get is a hotel room...)

 

[Sandisw]

As a VGF1 owner, I sure do wish they made it into a separate association though. I have no desire to stay in the hotel rooms.

You are correct, but I think it's to a point. I do think it is affecting sales of VGF2 in comparison to RIV. RIV may have resale restrictions (that would give me, personally, pause as a first-time buyer as it would be harder to sell down the road if I needed to) but balancing that is that it has 6 more years on the contract than VGF does. I think that extra 6 years is a big part of why RIV sales are higher than VGF2 (other than, well, with VGF2 all you get is a hotel room...)

I am sure that the 6 years difference is playing a role with buyers who don’t have a huge preference for either one.

And I think that is an important piece of info for DVD if they are trying to decide which way to go with restrictions at new resorts.

What we may be seeing is that new buyers are willing to overlook the restrictions when the price and contract length is better.

If I am DVD, and want to keep them, then I might decide it is better to keep The price competitive and accept less money now in order to get more later when more restricted resort come on board and more buyers hopefully choose direct over resale because of it.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

If VDH has the restrictions, so will Poly2.

If VDH has restrictions AND Poly2 is a new association, Poly2 will have restrictions.

 

[Roughians_satchel]

I was just at Disney in July and talked to one of the DVC sales reps at GF and he said that the new tower will "absolutely" be part of the existing HOA. Take that for what it's worth.

I had a similar experience with a rep at the Poly in July. She was very vague about it (probably because they aren't allowed to come out and tell us yet), but she kept comparing it to Jambo/Kidani, implying it'll all be one association.

 

[havoc315]

I had a similar experience with a rep at the Poly in July. She was very vague about it (probably because they aren't allowed to come out and tell us yet), but she kept comparing it to Jambo/Kidani, implying it'll all be one association.

The sales reps don't know. The sales reps don't know a whole lot more than anybody can read in a Disney brochure. The reps will officially find out around the same time as the general public. (Maybe 24-48 hours before, as they get trained on the sales information).

 

[havoc315]

I am sure that the 6 years difference is playing a role with buyers who don’t have a huge preference for either one.

And I think that is an important piece of info for DVD if they are trying to decide which way to go with restrictions at new resorts.

What we may be seeing is that new buyers are willing to overlook the restrictions when the price and contract length is better.

If I am DVD, and want to keep them, then I might decide it is better to keep The price competitive and accept less money now in order to get more later when more restricted resort come on board and more buyers hopefully choose direct over resale because of it.

The biggest reason that RIV is outselling VGF right now is simply -- price. Incentives are a little better at RIV. So people who see GFV and RV as being equal in quality, will go to RIV based on price.
Those that don't appreciate home resort availability issues... simply listening to the sales presentation about being able to use any resort, may also buy at RIV because it's a little cheaper.
Then there are those who buy RIV over GFV because -- They like it more! They either prefer the resort, or they prefer the location of RIV or both.
The 6 year difference may be a factor for some buyers. But I can't imagine it being a big factor unless the resorts are otherwise tied in someone's mind.
The re-sale restrictions... they might affect some buyers who obsessively read disboards... but they don't affect the vast majority of buyers. The vast majority of buyers aren't researching whether one direct resort is going to give you a 5% better re-sale 20 years down the road than another resort. They are buying without plans to ever resell. Their thoughts about the re-sale restrictions will mostly be, "oh, that doesn't affect me, since I'm buying direct."

Here is the thing to remember -- the majority of first-time DVC buyers aren't even really familiar with the whole re-sale market.

 

[SeasonneRose]

Disney isn't ROFRing Poly.

Why wouldn’t they down the line if they’re making it all the same association?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Why wouldn’t they down the line if they’re making it all the same association?

Disney doesn't ROFR actively selling resorts, or resorts that are about to be actively selling resorts. They stopped ROFRing VGF in the months leading up to the VGF2 debut as well.

 

[SeasonneRose]

Disney doesn't ROFR actively selling resorts, or resorts that are about to be actively selling resorts. They stopped ROFRing VGF in the months leading up to the VGF2 debut as well.

So you have to go back to the question I was originally replying to then: why wouldn’t someone just buy resale and not direct? ROFR was one possible answer.
Another answer is: Disney is simply not bothered enough by the few resale contracts out there for Poly to deal with it. They could still roll it all into one association and let people buy up the resale and still have plenty of points to sell direct.

 

[EYL]

The sales reps don't know. The sales reps don't know a whole lot more than anybody can read in a Disney brochure. The reps will officially find out around the same time as the general public. (Maybe 24-48 hours before, as they get trained on the sales information).

This is consistent to what I was told by 2 reps... That DVC members got the email about the new Poly Tower about 30 minutes before the guides got the email, so what we know is what they know...

 

[Paul Stupin]

If VDH has restrictions AND Poly2 is a new association, Poly2 will have restrictions.

No one is arguing that if Poly2 isn’t in a new association, it obviously won’t have restrictions. So what’s the point in clarifying that? I’m saying that if VDH has restrictions, Poly2 will have restrictions as well, which will mean it will be in a separate association.

 

[Jlo85]

So you have to go back to the question I was originally replying to then: why wouldn’t someone just buy resale and not direct? ROFR was one possible answer.
Another answer is: Disney is simply not bothered enough by the few resale contracts out there for Poly to deal with it. They could still roll it all into one association and let people buy up the resale and still have plenty of points to sell direct.

But couldn't you apply that logic to any resort? What's special about Poly that they aren't ROFR'ing it? Poly is the only resort not in active sale that hasn't been ROFR'd over the past year.

When I look at ROFR, it appears to be proportional to direct prices. So, I would have expected Disney to ROFR Poly at around $170/point, similar to Copper Creek. But they're not...

 

[CaptainAmerica]

So you have to go back to the question I was originally replying to then: why wouldn’t someone just buy resale and not direct? ROFR was one possible answer.

No, it isn't. That's what I'm telling you. There is no risk of ROFR at Poly1 resale right now.

Another answer is: Disney is simply not bothered enough by the few resale contracts out there for Poly to deal with it. They could still roll it all into one association and let people buy up the resale and still have plenty of points to sell direct.

I'm not sure you understand what ROFR is.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

No one is arguing that if Poly2 isn’t in a new association, it obviously won’t have restrictions. So what’s the point in clarifying that? I’m saying that if VDH has restrictions, Poly2 will have restrictions as well, which will mean it will be in a separate association.

So you think "VDH has restrictions" and "Poly2 rolls into PVB" is impossible?

 

[Paul Stupin]

So you think "VDH has restrictions" and "Poly2 rolls into PVB" is impossible?

Yes! That’s what I’m saying. But ”impossible” is too definitive. I’d say “highly unlikely” instead.

 

[Genie+]

Why would they stop ROFR’ing PVB if the new Poly2 tower is a separate association?

They stopped ROFR’ing VGF before VGF2 went on sale as the same association.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Why would they stop ROFR’ing PVB if the new Poly2 tower is a separate association?

They stopped ROFR’ing VGF before VGF2 went on sale as the same association.

I think it's evidence but not conclusive.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Yes! That’s what I’m saying. But ”impossible” is too definitive. I’d say “highly unlikely” instead.

Explain VGF2.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Cap's DVC predictions.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Explain VGF2.

Explain VGF sir? Yessir! Sir yessir! A quick “down and dirty“ hotel flip done with minimal construction, time and expense, with zero amenities of its own. A smart cash grab and stopgap measure to keep the lights on at DVC before the next big project comes online. Definitely not a new construction, ground up build that will take years, a team of architects and designers, and hundreds of millions of dollars. Surely you see the difference between the two, right? I don’t think the lack of restrictions at VGF2 has any bearing on this discussion at all. Also, Poly2 will feature the usual range of room types, not exclusively studios. But I think you already know this, seeing that its been debated here for months.