Why is everyone so concerned with the new Poly tower

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Yes! That’s what I’m saying. But ”impossible” is too definitive. I’d say “highly unlikely” instead.

Many podcasters disagree with you. Will be interesting to see what happens.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Many podcasters disagree with you. Will be interesting to see what happens.

Are these the same podcasters who were telling us that Disney was going to unload management of DVC, and that Aulani was going to be put up for sale?

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Are these the same podcasters who were telling us that Disney was going to unload management of DVC, and that Aulani was going to be put up for sale?

Definitely not. The more popular ones who are backed by board sponsor.

 

[BeachClub2014]

This is the same debate that's been going on since DVC made their seemingly ill-timed announcement about Poly Tower. Same old arguments about VGF/VGF2, use of pools, parsing of words in the original announcement, reading of tea leaves on restrictions, etc., etc. All great stuff! But have we really learned anything new?

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

This is the same debate that's been going on since DVC made their seemingly ill-timed announcement about Poly Tower. Same old arguments about VGF/VGF2, use of pools, parsing of words in the original announcement, reading of tea leaves on restrictions, etc., etc. All great stuff! But have we really learned anything new?

Nope.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Nope.

Whew! I thought that I had missed some breaking news along the way.

It does make for a great debate and discussion, though.

 

[Paul Stupin]

This is the same debate that's been going on since DVC made their seemingly ill-timed announcement about Poly Tower. Same old arguments about VGF/VGF2, use of pools, parsing of words in the original announcement, reading of tea leaves on restrictions, etc., etc. All great stuff! But have we really learned anything new?

Nope!

 

[Jlo85]

I think it's evidence but not conclusive.

How cheap do we think Poly needs to get for the lack of ROFR to be convincing? I think it's already getting pretty cheap. Cheaper than AKV resale? Cheaper than Aulani?

 

[BeachClub2014]

Cap's DVC predictions.

View attachment 704491

Great chart, thanks!

Here's my prediction: Poly Towers will be the first installment of DVC2 which will, of course, require a new association. It will have restrictions, lots of restrictions. Restrictions on resale, for sure. It will also be restricted to "Blue Card DVC'ers" with an Annual Pass. The pools and amenities will also be restricted and in order to use them, guests will need to whip out their phones and show their DVC-Y screens along with photo identification.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Definitely not. The more popular ones who are backed by board sponsor.

Ah, got it. Didn’t they agree with Pete last year that the VGF2 pricing would be in the $250-$275 range? Anyway, I remember listening to that podcast about Poly, and thinking that they were saying Poly2 would be part of Poly1 because that would help currently sell Poly1 resale, since that’s how they make money.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Explain VGF sir? Yessir! Sir yessir! A quick “down and dirty“ hotel flip done with minimal construction, time and expense, with zero amenities of its own. A smart cash grab and stopgap measure to keep the lights on at DVC before the next big project comes online. Definitely not a new construction, ground up build that will take years, a team of architects and designers, and hundreds of millions of dollars. Surely you see the difference between the two, right? I don’t think the lack of restrictions at VGF2 has any bearing on this discussion at all. Also, Poly2 will feature the usual range of room types, not exclusively studios. But I think you already know this, seeing that its been debated here for months.

The revenue side of the business does. not. care. how much it costs to build a project. If they thought they could have made more money selling VGF2 with restrictions, they would NOT have said "yeah but it was cheap to build so we're not going to bother maximizing revenue."

 

[CaptainAmerica]

How cheap do we think Poly needs to get for the lack of ROFR to be convincing? I think it's already getting pretty cheap. Cheaper than AKV resale? Cheaper than Aulani?

I don't think the price needs to move at all. It's very clear that Disney is NOT ROFRing Poly, that's not the part in question. The question is "might Disney stop ROFRing PVB for some reason even if Poly 2 is a second association?"

I don't think so. My guess is that it's the same association, but it's possible that they'd halt ROFR at this "neighboring" resort even if it's separate.

 

[Jlo85]

I don't think the price needs to move at all. It's very clear that Disney is NOT ROFRing Poly, that's not the part in question. The question is "might Disney stop ROFRing PVB for some reason even if Poly 2 is a second association?"

I don't think so. My guess is that it's the same association, but it's possible that they'd halt ROFR at this "neighboring" resort even if it's separate.

The only thought I have is if they intend to make PVB the lesser cousin of Poly2. If they intend to sell Poly2 at a higher price than PVB, and put PVB direct at lower price similar to AKV, then it could also explain the lack of ROFR. We haven't gotten down to the 140s for Poly(yet).

 

[BeachClub2014]

The revenue side of the business does. not. care. how much it costs to build a project. If they thought they could have made more money selling VGF2 with restrictions, they would NOT have said "yeah but it was cheap to build so we're not going to bother maximizing revenue."

Maybe it wasn't up to the "revenue side of the business" to decide. The fact is, none of us knows with any degree of certainty why they decided to incorporate VGF2 into the existing association and not as a separate association with restrictions. A whole lot of speculation and theories, which are fun to read and debate. One theory is as good as another.

 

[Paul Stupin]

The revenue side of the business does. not. care. how much it costs to build a project. If they thought they could have made more money selling VGF2 with restrictions, they would NOT have said "yeah but it was cheap to build so we're not going to bother maximizing revenue."

Maybe. But selling a single, all studio converted hotel wing, with zero of its own amenities, in a separate association seems kind of a stretch.

 

[Sandisw]

The biggest reason that RIV is outselling VGF right now is simply -- price. Incentives are a little better at RIV. So people who see GFV and RV as being equal in quality, will go to RIV based on price.
Those that don't appreciate home resort availability issues... simply listening to the sales presentation about being able to use any resort, may also buy at RIV because it's a little cheaper.
Then there are those who buy RIV over GFV because -- They like it more! They either prefer the resort, or they prefer the location of RIV or both.
The 6 year difference may be a factor for some buyers. But I can't imagine it being a big factor unless the resorts are otherwise tied in someone's mind.
The re-sale restrictions... they might affect some buyers who obsessively read disboards... but they don't affect the vast majority of buyers. The vast majority of buyers aren't researching whether one direct resort is going to give you a 5% better re-sale 20 years down the road than another resort. They are buying without plans to ever resell. Their thoughts about the re-sale restrictions will mostly be, "oh, that doesn't affect me, since I'm buying direct."

Here is the thing to remember -- the majority of first-time DVC buyers aren't even really familiar with the whole re-sale market.

Exactly and it supports that when things line price, length, etc are competitive, the restrictions are much lower on the list of priority’s if someone does t have a strong preference for either.

 

[Paul Stupin]

The revenue side of the business does. not. care. how much it costs to build a project. If they thought they could have made more money selling VGF2 with restrictions, they would NOT have said "yeah but it was cheap to build so we're not going to bother maximizing revenue."

Also, none of us know how the internal machinations of DVD work. So these definitive proclamations, from all of us, myself included, are somewhat laughable. We. don’t. know.
We can only speculate.

 

[Jlo85]

Maybe. But selling a single, all studio converted hotel wing, with zero of its own amenities, in a separate association seems kind of a stretch.

Isn’t that basically what they did with PVB?

 

[Sandisw]

Why would they stop ROFR’ing PVB if the new Poly2 tower is a separate association?

They stopped ROFR’ing VGF before VGF2 went on sale as the same association.

It’s way too early for the ROfR to mean things in relation to Poly.

BPK was announced in May 2021 with a open date a year later and announced it was the same..so ROFR info didn’t mean much to when it stopped because we all knew it was the same.

Poly tower is still over two years away from opening so I don’t think we can gain insight because they are not taking Poly.

Get to next year this time and still no announcement then we may be able to make predictions as to what they are thinking.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Maybe it wasn't up to the "revenue side of the business" to decide. The fact is, none of us knows with any degree of certainty why they decided to incorporate VGF2 into the existing association and not as a separate association with restrictions. A whole lot of speculation and theories, which are fun to read and debate. One theory is as good as another.

I've worked in corporate finance for a hospitality and tourism company for more than a decade. I guarantee you with 100% certainty that VGF2 was not rolled into the existing VGF association "because it was cheaper to convert Big Pine Key to Studios than to build new villas from scratch." I don't know what the reason *is,* but I promise you that's something it *isn't.*