Why is everyone so concerned with the new Poly tower

[Paul Stupin]

Isn’t that basically what they did with PVB?

No. There was no other DVC component, and there were bungalows as well.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I've worked in corporate finance for a hospitality and tourism company for more than a decade. I guarantee you with 100% certainty that VGF2 was not rolled into the existing VGF association "because it was cheaper to convert Big Pine Key to Studios than to build new villas from scratch." I don't know what the reason *is,* but I promise you that's something it *isn't.*

Thank you for you guarantee of 100% certainty. So, surely then, you can give us a guarantee of 100% certainty on what will happen with Poly2, which is the point of this discussion!

 

[RichVIII]

Going back to the debate of fewer years (IF PVB2 is in the same association), I wish we knew the demographics of today's buyers. As prices rise, either people are taking more loans or appealing to a more affluent buyers. Or is the buyer starting to skew a little older where they potentially have more disposable income, in theory reducing less need for 50 years? Or do most people think of this as something to pass to their kids?

 

[BeachClub2014]

Going back to the debate of fewer years (IF PVB2 is in the same association), I wish we knew the demographics of today's buyers. As prices rise, either people are taking more loans or appealing to a more affluent buyers. Or is the buyer starting to skew a little older where they potentially have more disposable income, in theory reducing less need for 50 years? Or do most people think of this as something to pass to their kids?

I'm guessing it's a mix. When we first bought DVC 20 years ago, it was financed. This past January we bought additional contracts at Riviera with the intention of passing those on to our kidlets when we croak. We paid cash for those points. We bought Riviera over other options because it's an awesome resort, had a good price with great incentives, and has the 2070 expiration. It was simply the best bang for our buck in our scenario.

 

[Jlo85]

No. There was no other DVC component, and there were bungalows as well.

I just think the perspective that DVC can't sell studios is wrong. They sell studios all the time. People didn't buy PVB for the bungalows (obviously). I would wager that most buyers are buying with the intent to use studios.

It’s way too early for the ROfR to mean things in relation to Poly.

If resale restrictions intend to make ROFR cheaper for Disney, then the lack of ROFR for Poly right now is kind of telling. If they can get Poly for cheap to resale at $250 direct, why wouldn't they? They're selling about as much Poly direct at $250 as all the other legacy resorts.

 

[DaveNan]

I think the lack of ROFR is basically because DVC does not want any inventory of PVB points and does not want to be selling PVB direct right now. They want a pent-up demand for direct PVB points once they go on sale. This applies if they will be in the same association or in a different association. Even after the new points are for sale, they will not exercise ROFR on current poly points. If they are in the same association, they rarely buy points for currently for sale resorts (associations). If they are in different associations, PVB1 points are too close in many aspects to PVB2 points. They will want to push buyers to PVB2 points. Buying PVB1 points to flip, would take sales away from PVB2.

So... lack of ROFR on current PVB points is not surprising, but I don't see any messages in the tea leaves that points to same or different association.

 

[SLThomas318]

Going back to the debate of fewer years (IF PVB2 is in the same association), I wish we knew the demographics of today's buyers. As prices rise, either people are taking more loans or appealing to a more affluent buyers. Or is the buyer starting to skew a little older where they potentially have more disposable income, in theory reducing less need for 50 years? Or do most people think of this as something to pass to their kids?

I’m curious on this too. We only joined in 2018 with CC… I think the min. for direct benefits was 75 and the point chart was very reasonable. The resale/rental market made us feel comfortable with our “investment” and we bought direct for ease. Now with the higher buy-in (if you want direct “benefits”), larger point charts, and resale restrictions I’m not sure who they are marketing to? It’s only been a few years for us, but if we were buying into the system today I’m not sure if we would (or would have so quickly).

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Going back to the debate of fewer years (IF PVB2 is in the same association), I wish we knew the demographics of today's buyers. As prices rise, either people are taking more loans or appealing to a more affluent buyers. Or is the buyer starting to skew a little older where they potentially have more disposable income, in theory reducing less need for 50 years? Or do most people think of this as something to pass to their kids?

I'm not sure how long the contract duration has ever mattered to the typical buyer. Speaking only for myself buying in 2020, 2042 was always too short but I didn't make much distinction in my mind between 2054, 2060, 2064, or 2070.

 

[AvidDisReader]

Thank you for you guarantee of 100% certainty. So, surely then, you can give us a guarantee of 100% certainty on what will happen with Poly2, which is the point of this discussion!

Why so mean spirited? You make good points, let your arguments speak for themselves. Not necessary to attack everyone who does not agree with you.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

This applies if they will be in the same association or in a different association.

Not if you're a Poly 1 owner wanting to add on to your membership. A Poly 1 owner who wants more direct points definitely cares about the association status of Poly 2, and presumably Disney will want to have something on hand to sell to those folks.

 

[AvidDisReader]

I think the lack of ROFR is basically because DVC does not want any inventory of PVB points and does not want to be selling PVB direct right now. They want a pent-up demand for direct PVB points once they go on sale. This applies if they will be in the same association or in a different association. Even after the new points are for sale, they will not exercise ROFR on current poly points. If they are in the same association, they rarely buy points for currently for sale resorts (associations). If they are in different associations, PVB1 points are too close in many aspects to PVB2 points. They will want to push buyers to PVB2 points. Buying PVB1 points to flip, would take sales away from PVB2.

So... lack of ROFR on current PVB points is not surprising, but I don't see any messages in the tea leaves that points to s

Remember they did not start to ROFR GFV until about 3 months prior to annoucing officially that the new units would be part of the old association. At that point they ROFR everything. That way people who wanted to buy would not get the points cheaper on the resale market. This could be exactly why they are not officially annoucing that Poly2 and Poly1 are the same association. If they did, the smart DVCer would be scooping up as many current points as possible since they could use it at the new tower, but at greatly reduced price point. So, if they follow the logic of GFV, they will start ROFR everything at Poly a couple of months prior to making any official annoucement. If they end up being separate association, I do not see any reason to worry one way or the other on ROFR the current Poly resale points.

 

[DaveNan]

Not if you're a Poly 1 owner wanting to add on to your membership. A Poly 1 owner who wants more direct points definitely cares about the association status of Poly 2, and presumably Disney will want to have something on hand to sell to those folks.

I fear they wouldn't. They will want them to buy PVB2 and would just not offer PVB1, like they rarely offer some resorts resale now. They may "offer" them, but don't fill all requests and have wait lists. They would fear losing other direct sales at PVB2 who would be flexible. Looking at estimated resort construction costs (60 mil for a 100 room 5 star so I used 250Mil for the resort) and estimated number of points (40 points per night average across seasons, views, and type)... I think I estimated high on the cost and low on the point pool.... you get $68 per point. (My guess is their cost is actually under $68 per point) Until resale gets close to that, why would they do anything to compete with direct sales.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Ah, got it. Didn’t they agree with Pete last year that the VGF2 pricing would be in the $250-$275 range? Anyway, I remember listening to that podcast about Poly, and thinking that they were saying Poly2 would be part of Poly1 because that would help currently sell Poly1 resale, since that’s how they make

If I recall correctly they accurately predicted VGF pricing starting at $207. I recall this because I was certain it would be north of $250 and I was totally wrong (happily wrong too!).

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I fear they wouldn't. They will want them to buy PVB2 and would just not offer PVB1, like they rarely offer some resorts resale now. They may "offer" them, but don't fill all requests and have wait lists. They would fear losing other direct sales at PVB2 who would be flexible. Looking at estimated resort construction costs (60 mil for a 100 room 5 star so I used 250Mil for the resort) and estimated number of points (40 points per night average across seasons, views, and type)... I think I estimated high on the cost and low on the point pool.... you get $68 per point. (My guess is their cost is actually under $68 per point) Until resale gets close to that, why would they do anything to compete with direct sales.

Again, this all presupposes different associations, in which case PVB1 would not be advertised and it would be priced as a sold-out resort. I think they'll be happy to sell Poly 1 to Poly 1 owners at $260 while they're selling Poly 2 to everyone else at $200. I don't think a $260 Studio-only 2066 resort poses much cannibalization risk against a $200 diverse-villa 2072 resort in the same location.

 

[Sandisw]

Isn’t that basically what they did with PVB?

Those are not resort studios. They are deluxe studios with a kitchenette and a split bath with two showers. Subtle difference

There is a reason Poly studios are available longer..owners are trading out..and some do it for larger units. It was pretty much the only direct choice at the time which does play into it.

There was also some debate back then that DVD was getting some negative feedback and it was not repeated with CCV or RIV.

It’s also one of the reasons people have to saying Poly tower should be rolled into PVB to correct that situation.

 

[DaveNan]

Remember they did not start to ROFR GFV until about 3 months prior to annoucing officially that the new units would be part of the old association. At that point they ROFR everything. That way people who wanted to buy would not get the points cheaper on the resale market. This could be exactly why they are not officially annoucing that Poly2 and Poly1 are the same association. If they did, the smart DVCer would be scooping up as many current points as possible since they could use it at the new tower, but at greatly reduced price point. So, if they follow the logic of GFV, they will start ROFR everything at Poly a couple of months prior to making any official annoucement. If they end up being separate association, I do not see any reason to worry one way or the other on ROFR the current Poly resale points.

Can't remember when the announcements came, but in all of 2021 the ROFR threads they took in in all of 2021 (Feb&Jun) and 0 in 2022, and on the DVC resale market data they took 3 in 2021 (Jan, March, Oct) and 0 in 2022. But I don't think the announcement came till late 2021. They stopped taking them long before they even told us it was coming.

Again, this all presupposes different associations, in which case PVB1 would not be advertised and it would be priced as a sold-out resort. I think they'll be happy to sell Poly 1 to Poly 1 owners at $260 while they're selling Poly 2 to everyone else at $200. I don't think a $260 Studio-only 2066 resort poses much cannibalization risk against a $200 diverse-villa 2072 resort in the same location.

We'll have to just differ on this one. I understand that some current owners may have a strong preference, and DVC may account for that interest. But allowing that would lead to some folks who were not as strong in the preference buying the legacy PVB versus new PVT (no) B, buying PVB. It will just come down to how much cannibalization they will tolerate for the revenue premium (not necessarily income premium).

 

[Jlo85]

There is a reason Poly studios are available longer..owners are trading out..and some do it for larger units. It was pretty much the only direct choice at the time which does play into it.

There was also some debate back then that DVD was getting some negative feedback and it was not repeated with CCV or RIV.

I think the availability is just that Poly has a lot of studios. Other resorts have studio availability issues (like RIV and CCV) because they don't have nearly as many studios. And I think Poly sold well... not sure why we think VGF studios wouldn't have as a separate association. If Disney wanted to go all-in on restrictions with VGF2, I think they very well could have.

 

[Sandisw]

I think the availability is just that Poly has a lot of studios. Other resorts have studio availability issues (like RIV and CCV) because they don't have nearly as many studios. And I think Poly sold well... not sure why we think VGF studios wouldn't have as a separate association. If Disney wanted to go all-in on restrictions with VGF2, I think they very well could have.

Except there are lot of points that are attached to the bungalows and those are not being booked,

All those points then would go to the studios for booking if Poly owners were booking during home resort and then trading later.

So, I think the fact that they are easy to get means enough owners are leaving the resort.

Also, the Grand Floridian is the flagship resort…that could also have played a role in why that was not the right hotel to have a resort studio resort….

They could have decided to make it new, but they didn’t and I just don’t think one can conclude that means restrictions are over…or that it means Poly tower has to be an expansion of PVB.

None of us know the reason and are speculating but one can certainly come up with plausible reasons why it didn’t make sense to make it a new DVC resort.

 

[SeasonneRose]

No, it isn't. That's what I'm telling you. There is no risk of ROFR at Poly1 resale right now.


I'm not sure you understand what ROFR is.

I do understand it. I’m not sure you understand the context behind the question I was originally responding to.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I do understand it. I’m not sure you understand the context behind the question I was originally responding to.

Someone asked why anyone would buy Poly 1 Direct instead of Poly 1 Resale, and you answered "ROFR." There is no ROFR at Poly 1, meaning nobody is buying Poly 1 Direct to avoid ROFR.