Why is everyone so concerned with the new Poly tower

[theMoreDisneytheBetter]

For me, the quality of Riviera surpasses both BCV and BWV and, though the Skyliner doesn’t surpass walking, for the most part it’s an effortless, easy, fun journey. And, as walkers ourselves, we love to take the skyliner to Epcot or Hollywood Studios, then walk to the other. Or walk around Crescent Lake before skylining back to the Riviera. The walk around Caribbean Beach is nice as well.

Also, those 2042 resorts are expiring in almost less than 20 years now.

I was specifically speaking to LOCATION, not quality of the resort. Also it's all about what you/your family prioritize. While the kids will ride the skyliner home if they are tired, the adults almost always walk - and usually beat them back.

Some people think "after walking all day why would I want to walk home?" whereas for us the question is "after waiting in lines all day why would I want to deal with any more delays?"

And yes, I know there are only 20 years left for BC. But we have owned (and loved owning) there for a long time, and will be buying whatever replaces it so that our daughter will continue the tradition with her kids (our son loves Poly, but that's a different matter). I don't exaggerate when I say that BC feels like home more than anywhere else except our actual home.

 

[Sandisw]

Also isn’t Riviera cheaper than VGF for new buyers? All things equal that should push buyers to Riviera. That should be factored in when comparing how the two resorts are selling. For existing members I believe the two have more similar price points

Slightly less, 2021 points for later UYs and longer contract But it still says that when given the choice, restrictions didn’t deter new buyers from purchasing RIV because all those things helped offset it

So, if one is trying to figure out DVD Might be doing with future restrictions, this data certainly does not support they have to go

Granted, it’s one month and until we get a few more it’s just a reference.

But, only focusing on the 177k…which is an amazing figure..without looking at that subset of data may lead to thinking it’s a slam dunk that they will go.

Matter of fact, my guess is that RIV outperformed VGF for new buyers. And if that trend continues or they remain close, then DVD will have current data to stick with the long term goal of restrictions at all new resorts.

 

[UA DVC Member]

I really think Disney needs to be careful with restrictions for resale. Unlike all other timeshare products, DVC is the one that maintains its value (and most times goes up in value). In my opinion a large part of that has been the lack of restrictions. I personally would never buy a resort that had restrictions because I’d be concerned about future value if I wanted to sell.

in the short run it could drive more people to buy direct, but over time these will hurt the value of resale contracts and thus make the overall product less valuable. DVC has a good thing going - the more restrictive they make the resale market, the more DVC will look like any other timeshare product out there.

 

[BruinEd03]

Slightly less, 2021 points for later UYs and longer contract But it still says that when given the choice, restrictions didn’t deter new buyers from purchasing RIV because all those things helped offset it

So, if one is trying to figure out DVD Might be doing with future restrictions, this data certainly does not support they have to go

Granted, it’s one month and until we get a few more it’s just a reference.

But, only focusing on the 177k…which is an amazing figure..without looking at that subset of data may lead to thinking it’s a slam dunk that they will go.

Matter of fact, my guess is that RIV outperformed VGF for new buyers. And if that trend continues or they remain close, then DVD will have current data to stick with the long term goal of restrictions at all new resorts.

I don’t think Disney will care if the sales are *new* buyers or *add-ons* buyers. Buyers are buyers. Does it matter where the money is coming from? I think what Disney saw was that resale prices were absolutely astronomical. With the pricing, they severely undercut the resale market while getting quick sales. If VGF sells out quickly, I think Disney will follow that strategy for popular resorts.

Poly’s resale pricing is also high, just not as quite as high as VGF. If Disney thinks Poly is popular, they could very well remove resale restrictions and go for a quick sale.

Also, even if Poly goes the same condo association route, I don’t know that it means that Disney will remove resale restrictions on Riviera. I think the condo association route allows Disney options to keep resale restrictions alive, because they can make the choice on a resort by resort basis, and very close to when they want to open the resort.

That being said, I think the Disneyland tower may provide information. If they don’t have resale restrictions, I think it’s unlikely that Disney will include it in future offerings. However, if they keep resale restrictions, I don’t think it provides much more information given that it’s a very unique situation.

Ultimately, though, Disney has to decide if resale restrictions are truly beneficial to sales. It makes DVC guides have to have awkward conversations. However, Riviera resales appear to be robust for *add-on* buyers. If that’s the case, then they aren’t really doing a good job of competing with the resale market. And if it’s not increasing sales, they may decide it’s not worth it anymore.

 

[hglenn]

I really think Disney needs to be careful with restrictions for resale. Unlike all other timeshare products, DVC is the one that maintains its value (and most times goes up in value). In my opinion a large part of that has been the lack of restrictions. I personally would never buy a resort that had restrictions because I’d be concerned about future value if I wanted to sell.

in the short run it could drive more people to buy direct, but over time these will hurt the value of resale contracts and thus make the overall product less valuable. DVC has a good thing going - the more restrictive they make the resale market, the more DVC will look like any other timeshare product out there.

100% agree. I've been stumped by that from the start. When people start talking about Disney competing with resale I wonder why Disney isn't touting the strong resale market as an advantage of other time share products. For me, I'm not a big risk taker so knowing that DVC has a strong probability to retain its value and, in desperation or when life changes, I should be able to easily unload it. I would never buy into some of the other time shares where you see people cannot give them away - I don't care how much I liked the location. Never... IMO, Disney needs to enhance the direct purchase member benefits to entice people to buy direct, however, they should also keep the resale market appealing. It's a value-add to the entire product if you ask me.

 

[BeachClub2014]

100% agree. I've been stumped by that from the start. When people start talking about Disney competing with resale I wonder why Disney isn't touting the strong resale market as an advantage of other time share products. For me, I'm not a big risk taker so knowing that DVC has a strong probability to retain its value and, in desperation or when life changes, I should be able to easily unload it. I would never buy into some of the other time shares where you see people cannot give them away - I don't care how much I liked the location. Never... IMO, Disney needs to enhance the direct purchase member benefits to entice people to buy direct, however, they should also keep the resale market appealing. It's a value-add to the entire product if you ask me.

I'm no expert, but I assume that Disney doesn't embrace the aftermarket resale industry as it is in direct competition with them in selling points. Where would be the financial advantage for Disney to tout a strong resale market in their sales pitch?

The restrictions on all post-2019 resale points are definitely intended to create a premium for buying directly. Assuming they stick to the plan, and I know that the jury is still out on that one, the impacts of those restrictions will become more pronounced across the portfolio as we near 2042.

But hey, I could be totally wrong.

 

[hglenn]

I'm no expert, but I assume that Disney doesn't embrace the aftermarket resale industry as it is in direct competition with them in selling points. Where would be the financial advantage for Disney to tout a strong resale market in their sales pitch?

The restrictions on all post-2019 resale points are definitely intended to create a premium for buying directly. Assuming they stick to the plan, and I know that the jury is still out on that one, the impacts of those restrictions will become more pronounced across the portfolio as we near 2042.

But hey, I could be totally wrong.

No, I hear you... I get it... That's why I think they should sweeten the "direct buy" pot with more perks... I guess I just feel like DVC has an advantage over other TS products on the market because of retained value over time which makes purchasing lower risk... I like the security of knowing that it's not going to all lost in 20 years when the property hasn't been kept up and the sizzle of the area is gone... Just another take, I guess.... non-conventional, yes, but isn't that what makes DVC appealing in the first place? I just bought resale but we do plan to add on direct going forward - mainly because I want to stay at RIV but I will not buy RIV. What will be very interesting is to see what happens in 2042 when 5 of the O14 drop out of the pool...... will the remaining 9 continue to retain as much value?

 

[BeachClub2014]

No, I hear you... I get it... That's why I think they should sweeten the "direct buy" pot with more perks... I guess I just feel like DVC has an advantage over other TS products on the market because of retained value over time which makes purchasing lower risk... I like the security of knowing that it's not going to all lost in 20 years when the property hasn't been kept up and the sizzle of the area is gone... Just another take, I guess.... non-conventional, yes, but isn't that what makes DVC appealing in the first place? I just bought resale but we do plan to add on direct going forward - mainly because I want to stay at RIV but I will not buy RIV. What will be very interesting is to see what happens in 2042 when 5 of the O14 drop out of the pool...... will the remaining 9 continue to retain as much value?

I totally get it. We've bought both direct and resale over the years so understand and appreciate the value of the resale market and the value it helps create for points. The changes affecting all resale points points, not just at Riviera, is a game changer, unless DVC reverses course on the restriction issue.

I just don't see them doing so, unfortunately.

 

[theMoreDisneytheBetter]

The direct purchase perk I’d love to see is the right to buy some version of the Florida Resident AP. It’s totally within DIS’s control, even if not the time share division itself, and would go a long way to bridging the gap vs resale for a lot of contracts.

 

[Tech4444]

A strong resale market is a selling point for buying direct. Knowing you can bail later in life makes the purchase much easier for the faint at heart. I feel it is in Disney's best interest to keep that market strong. That's why they do buy backs to keep the market strong and to maintain stock in all resorts.

 

[BeachClub2014]

A strong resale market is a selling point for buying direct. Knowing you can bail later in life makes the purchase much easier for the faint at heart. I feel it is in Disney's best interest to keep that market strong. That's why they do buy backs to keep the market strong and to maintain stock in all resorts.

They do buybacks to keep some inventory for sold out resorts, sure. I suspect the bigger reason is to try and keep the spread between resale and direct costs reasonable to entice people to purchase directly as it is infinitely easier and faster to do.

 

[AvidDisReader]

My posts may make it sound I do not like the Riviera. That is not true. I really like the resort and the only thing stopping me from staying there is the high point chart (when it comes to points Scrooge McDuck has nothing over me). I cannot help but wonder what the sales would have been for Riviera if they had never decided on the resale restriction, too bad we will never know. My issue is that I do not think Disney wants to have 2 resorts selling at the same time with resale restrictions. So they will use the model of GFV, Saratoga Springs (when added Treehouses), Jumbo House when added to Animal Kingdom to just add the new tower to the existing Poly. As for Resale restrictions, when they build the next stand alone they will add them. One last point on driving buyers to Poly Tower, by the time it is being actively marketed the RIV will be close the being sold out so I do not believe that it will be a big issue.

 

[RoseGold]

One last point on driving buyers to Poly Tower, by the time it is being actively marketed the RIV will be close the being sold out so I do not believe that it will be a big issue.

LOL. I guess we will see about that.

 

[Sandisw]

I don’t think Disney will care if the sales are *new* buyers or *add-ons* buyers. Buyers are buyers. Does it matter where the money is coming from? I think what Disney saw was that resale prices were absolutely astronomical. With the pricing, they severely undercut the resale market while getting quick sales. If VGF sells out quickly, I think Disney will follow that strategy for popular resorts.

Poly’s resale pricing is also high, just not as quite as high as VGF. If Disney thinks Poly is popular, they could very well remove resale restrictions and go for a quick sale.

Also, even if Poly goes the same condo association route, I don’t know that it means that Disney will remove resale restrictions on Riviera. I think the condo association route allows Disney options to keep resale restrictions alive, because they can make the choice on a resort by resort basis, and very close to when they want to open the resort.

That being said, I think the Disneyland tower may provide information. If they don’t have resale restrictions, I think it’s unlikely that Disney will include it in future offerings. However, if they keep resale restrictions, I don’t think it provides much more information given that it’s a very unique situation.

Ultimately, though, Disney has to decide if resale restrictions are truly beneficial to sales. It makes DVC guides have to have awkward conversations. However, Riviera resales appear to be robust for *add-on* buyers. If that’s the case, then they aren’t really doing a good job of competing with the resale market. And if it’s not increasing sales, they may decide it’s not worth it anymore.

Except they definitely look at all metrics of sales and if the data tells them with new buyers, RIV is selling better than VGF..which is very possible..., then they may see that as meaning resale restrictions are not that big of a deal if you put the correct pricing in place and have it go up against something without them.

I think what has happened with VGF is that many current owners did the adding on in March and why both March and April sales figures are as high as they are. We will see if this same thing holds true for May sales.

But, RIV, with restrictions, still did well...93K....and with the average contract size being 186, it tends to lean that these are brand new owners vs. current owners adding on. While 177K is a very high sales number, one of the best, I can't believe that DVD doesn't care that only 43K points were to new buyers, new master contracts to current owners...it has to be a big concern...

If RIV data ever showed 43K sales for new memberships, people would be sure to say how that supports nobody wants it. Well, in April, new buyers did not want VGF.

I will say that if they ditch resale restrictions, I would venture to guess that they will go from RIV too because at that point, they will have changed the strategy.

ETA: Just to clarify, my points were more for the discussion of removing resale restrictions from future resorts...and, having the low number of points sold to first time buyers at VGF...its just way too early to say that high add ons would be what drives those restrictions away, especially when we don't know yet if the high level of sales that happened in March continued beyond that....

 

[Jwaire]

PVB is still one of the best values in terms of selling price (resale), length of contract and maintenance fees. I'd rather own PVB than AKV, SSR or OKW even if I had to pay a nominal premium for it.

It's nice to have a flagship monorail resort as your baseline. Enjoy your contract!

 

[Marionnette]

PVB is still one of the best values in terms of selling price (resale), length of contract and maintenance fees. I'd rather own PVB than AKV, SSR or OKW even if I had to pay a nominal premium for it.

It's nice to have a flagship monorail resort as your baseline. Enjoy your contract!

I happen to agree! While I am not a big fan of studios for myself and husband, PVB has only increased in value since we purchased it resale a few years back. At the time, we were focused on length of contract, low annual dues and rentability. But mostly, we bought it for SAPs. It was actually a very good price and if we got "stuck" staying there, we would be just fine with having to do so .

 

[KTownRaider]

One last point on driving buyers to Poly Tower, by the time it is being actively marketed the RIV will be close the being sold out so I do not believe that it will be a big issue.

Just adding a data point when it comes to what mix of active resort sales (restrictions or not) DVC wants to offer in a few years: There are 3,825,342 RIV pts left to sell. If Riviera maintains it's April '22 pace (93,218 pts), it'll sell out in October of 2025. If it glides closer to it's lifetime monthly average (78,190 pts), it'll sell out in June of 2026. Unless Poly Tower's late 2024 opening date is delayed, it would seem that overlap with active RIV sales for at least a year is inevitable.

 

[Paul Stupin]

My posts may make it sound I do not like the Riviera. That is not true. I really like the resort and the only thing stopping me from staying there is the high point chart (when it comes to points Scrooge McDuck has nothing over me). I cannot help but wonder what the sales would have been for Riviera if they had never decided on the resale restriction, too bad we will never know. My issue is that I do not think Disney wants to have 2 resorts selling at the same time with resale restrictions. So they will use the model of GFV, Saratoga Springs (when added Treehouses), Jumbo House when added to Animal Kingdom to just add the new tower to the existing Poly. As for Resale restrictions, when they build the next stand alone they will add them. One last point on driving buyers to Poly Tower, by the time it is being actively marketed the RIV will be close the being sold out so I do not believe that it will be a big issue.

Your main point is that Disney won’t want two resorts selling at the same time with resale restrictions, but the general consensus is that VDH will have them, so when sales start they’ll be selling both it and Riviera with resale restrictions. So that argument goes out the window, no?

There are many discussions on these boards why VGF has no restrictions, so we don’t need to endlessly rehash that. And your examples of the Treehouses and Jumbo House are invalid because they are years old and occurred before resale restrictions were even implemented.

 

[RoseGold]

I can see both RIV and VGF2 sales hurting from the current AP situation. I know I wouldn't have even considered DVC without APs. That has to be a huge cloud over the whole product for now. There's a ton of resale sitting too. To me, the elephant no one is talking about is the APs.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I can see both RIV and VGF2 sales hurting from the current AP situation. I know I wouldn't have even considered DVC without APs. That has to be a huge cloud over the whole product for now. There's a ton of resale sitting too. To me, the elephant no one is talking about is the APs.

Agreed! These briefly on again, now seemingly forever off again AP sales look bad and undermine the entire DVC product. Last fall, in a bit of good luck, I bought annual sorcerer passes for my wife and I far in advance, to make park reservations, that won’t be activated until our trip in September. So I’m hoping we’re safe for the next 16 months, unless they figure out a way to worm out of the deal, which I fear isn’t impossible.

Long term, fingers crossed the post pandemic surge will stabilize and our passes, or some even weaker version of them, will come back. What do you think?