Where is bottom?

[AnnaKristoff2013]

There is some truth to this, but the hotel rates I am paying in general have been eye-popping. It's not just Disney.

You're right, inflation in the hospitality field in general has led the pack the past few years, but there is still a substantial savings staying offsite versus staying on property now. The Disney on-site hotels are marked up at least 100 percent compared to a comparable off-site hotels. Often it's marked up by 200 percent, 300 percent, or more.

 

[ocdb8r1]

I think the resale prices were inflated due to a myriad of factors - very tight inventory, aggressive direct promotions on sold out resorts that led to a LOT of ROFR, stimulus checks, relatively low interest rates, very tight onsite hotel availability. That was a bubble that popped, and what we’re seeing is a return to the fair market values. That’s my take at least.

In any case, looking forward, Disney has no dates with park passes sold out, is running their most aggressive promos in 3 years, is eliminating parking fees, and is furiously trying to set expectations of lower attendance on earnings calls. I think they’re expecting 2023 attendance to, at best, plateau.

I think we have to be careful about overstating the link between park attendance and on-site hotel revenue. The former appears to be quite strong with Genie+ selling out for the first (and second) time ever over this holiday weekend and relatively strong park results despite (what Disney says was) an intentional reduction in park capacity.

Clearly that strength has not translated into similar strength for on-site accommodation; I believe (as others have mentioned) it's likely linked to both a reduction in on-site benefits and a lack of price correction after the post-COVID bump. As others have noted, Disney is now adjusting with on-site promos and rollback of some of the absurd (parking) fees added to on-site stays.

 

[Brian Noble]

there is still a substantial savings staying offsite versus staying on property now

I'm one of those heathens who sometimes stay offsite, so yeah, it is.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I think we have to be careful about overstating the link between park attendance and on-site hotel revenue. The former appears to be quite strong with Genie+ selling out for the first (and second) time ever over this holiday weekend and relatively strong park results despite (what Disney says was) an intentional reduction in park capacity.

Clearly that strength has not translated into similar strength for on-site accommodation; I believe (as others have mentioned) it's likely linked to both a reduction in on-site benefits and a lack of price correction after the post-COVID bump. As others have noted, Disney is now adjusting with on-site promos and rollback of some of the absurd (parking) fees added to on-site stays.

Genie+ sold out for the first time because it quite literally couldn’t sell out in 2022. But even MLK weekend, attendance was down from last year and dramatically from 2020, and no park ran out of park passes all weekend. I was there. It wasn’t bad.

And looking forward again I can’t get past Iger and McCarthy both working overtime to set expectations around attendance moving forward on the earnings call.

 

[sleepymouse]

It isn’t affecting the parks, that’s for sure. We live 20 mins from the parks, go 3-4 times a week and it’s busier than it has ever been. There is no let up. People are falling over themselves to throw money at Disney (parks).

I was just in Disneyland last Wednesday-Sunday. Parks were soooo busy Saturday and Sunday. Most rides had at least 1 hour waits. Thank goodness for Genie+ and tons of knowledge.

 

[Nabas]

I think Disney hotels in general got too expensive, too quickly, and are just coming back down to earth. It’s a correction.

If only they were coming back down to earth.

Hotel occupancy was 88% last quarter. Most hotel chains would love this. At 88% occupancy, it's mostly empty rooms Monday and Tuesday nights, or empty rooms at the more expensive resorts.

Guests continue to book rooms at these high rates, and we're not going to see a meaningful correction until the next recession.

Prices have gotten so out of hand that I'm now booking DVC rooms for less per night than a Value Resort with my AP discount. For example, my upcoming March stay at Bay Lake Tower is costing me $227 per night, including my original purchase price factored in. (I bought DVC many years ago.)

With my AP discount, a room for those same nights at Pop Century is $246 per night, tax included.

Value Resorts never were more expensive than DVC stays 10 years ago. Hotel prices have become just crazy.

 

[Clemsondisfan]

An excellent question! We all know that in about 18 years, the 2042 resorts will be worth $0; the last year for points is 2041. The current valuation of the 2042 resorts vs other DVC resorts with over twice as many remaining years really boggles my brain.

They say that DVC holds its value so much better than other timeshares, and that might be true for a while. But even after my Riviera DVC contract expires and is worth $0, my Hilton Grand Vacations timeshare will still be going. Whether I'll still be around to enjoy them 40+ years from now is another story, but I hope to get many years of great times and memories out of them.

I completely agree on the pricing points for 2042 resorts. I originally wanted BWV resale but couldn't justify the price vs Poly with twice the remaining years on it. But, I also tend to forget how much money is floating around in this world and how so many others who have it just aren't concerned with that sort of thing.

 

[beldred]

Prices have gotten so out of hand that I'm now booking DVC rooms for less per night than a Value Resort with my AP discount. For example, my upcoming March stay at Bay Lake Tower is costing me $227 per night, including my original purchase price factored in. (I bought DVC many years ago.)

With my AP discount, a room for those same nights at Pop Century is $246 per night, tax included.

Value Resorts never were more expensive than DVC stays 10 years ago. Hotel prices have become just crazy.

This is actually what finally pushed me to buy (resale of course) a few months ago. I did a lot of math and we could stay DVC for the same price as staying at Pop (not the cheapest value!). Now it's cheaper than Pop. Nuts.
I run an excel sheet for every Disney trip we take, and that includes a tab on expenses. I'm definitely into the numbers and know what they show me. People will argue with you on here, say you are wrong. But I trust my math and it shows the same thing you see.

 

[AC168]

I have thought about VGC but come back to this every time for the same reason as what you said. Better offsite options. We stayed at the JW, got upgraded to a suite, perks of breakfast, snacks and drinks in the concierge lounge all day. That suits my pattern of taking breaks from the park during the day anyway. We’d go in the morning and come back for breakfast. Hard to justify VGC over that.

I’m at JW right now. I didn’t get upgraded and am really wishing I was at VGC. (I own at VGC but got these two nights as a present.). Maybe I’d like it here if I got upgraded and had club level, but right now I really wish I was at VGC.

 

[Jack Kerouac]

Haven't all of you heard? Inflation is no longer hitting the goods sector like it was in 2020. Its hitting the services sector now and it's not letting up. What am I doing about it? I'm taking my family to WDW in August and I don't care about the cost. I need to escape the reality of my more expensive, less impressive daily life.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Haven't all of you heard? Inflation is no longer hitting the goods sector like it was in 2020. Its hitting the services sector now and it's not letting up. What am I doing about it? I'm taking my family to WDW in August and I don't care about the cost. I need to escape the reality of my more expensive, less impressive daily life.

Inflation outside of WDW, particularly in dining, has made WDW prices seem downright reasonable.

 

[Disney_David]

I’m at JW right now. I didn’t get upgraded and am really wishing I was at VGC. (I own at VGC but got these two nights as a present.). Maybe I’d like it here if I got upgraded and had club level, but right now I really wish I was at VGC.

I would prefer to be at VGC too over a regular room with no club level.

My point was I’d be trading guaranteed breakfast, sodas, snacks and a probable upgrade for a regular room. That’s a tougher comparison.

I’d look at this as an extra vacation! And use those points another time!

 

[ClaraOswald]

I would prefer to be at VGC too over a regular room with no club level.

My point was I’d be trading guaranteed breakfast, sodas, snacks and a probable upgrade for a regular room. That’s a tougher comparison.

I’d look at this as an extra vacation! And use those points another time!

Do they have a dedicated shuttle? Do you walk? I've never looked into this hotel but it seems kind of far away.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I’m at JW right now. I didn’t get upgraded and am really wishing I was at VGC. (I own at VGC but got these two nights as a present.). Maybe I’d like it here if I got upgraded and had club level, but right now I really wish I was at VGC.

But you have what's left of the Garden Walk...

 

[Disney_David]

Do they have a dedicated shuttle? Do you walk? I've never looked into this hotel but it seems kind of far away.

We usually walk. It’s a 10-15 min walk. You can go through the garden to cut a little time out. We Uber’d back a couple of times - it’s about $7

 

[Brian Noble]

I took a quick look on google maps. The walk from the JW to the Esplanade is about 0.8 miles. For comparison, the walk from the mid-point of BWV to the IG is about 0.4 miles. Longer, but not that much longer.

 

[ClaraOswald]

We usually walk. It’s a 10-15 min walk. You can go through the garden to cut a little time out. We Uber’d back a couple of times - it’s about $7

Good to know. For me, even walking back to the Desert Inn felt so long in the summer heat with the lack of shade and whatnot.

I took a quick look on google maps. The walk from the JW to the Esplanade is about 0.8 miles. For comparison, the walk from the mid-point of BWV to the IG is about 0.4 miles. Longer, but not that much longer.

I don't know what BWV and IG are. I've noticed for me, the distance isn't as big of an issue as what the walk is like. Our walk from Disneyland to our room at the Grand Californian was longer than the walk we had when staying across the street at Park Vue. But it didn't seem as bad because there was shade and some was indoors.

 

[AC168]

We walked to the parks as the Uber/Lyft route is somewhat long. We ate dinner at Grand Cal and took a taxi home each night. It’s probably easily walkable when the weather is nice, but walking to the parks in rain seemed somewhat far.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Yes, Grand Cal is completely not worth the premium. I think everyone with a Dec UY contract should show Disney that they mean business and put their contracts on the market at $185pp so they can stay at the JW.

 

[ClaraOswald]

Yes, Grand Cal is completely not worth the premium. I think everyone with a Dec UY contract should show Disney that they mean business and put their contracts on the market at $185pp so they can stay at the JW.

Agreed. And put those June UY ones up for that price too!