Where is bottom?

[zavandor]

How many years before expiration would it be feasible to drop capital reserve assessments?

I cannot reply to this, probably it's a decision the Management company can take more or less freely. I think they cannot use the capital server to do an unjustified refurbishment just before the end of the lease (to give the hotel back to Disney in a better status), and any unused capital reserve fund will be paid back to owners. So I think they'll use a resonable approch of having just a bit for emergencies available for the last few years.

 

[Jayunit09]

How many years before expiration would it be feasible to drop capital reserve assessments?

Id also be curious to see how much work they will do on the 2042 resorts prior to expiration, shift the cost to the old owners and have a semi fresh resort to resell as part of DVC2.

 

[Jayunit09]

I cannot reply to this, probably it's a decision the Management company can take more or less freely. I think they cannot use the capital server to do an unjustified refurbishment just before the end of the lease (to give the hotel back to Disney in a better status), and any unused capital reserve fund will be paid back to owners. So I think they'll use a resonable approch of having just a bit for emergencies available for the last few years.

I commented before I saw this but I agree with you they probably wont be able to shift the cost to the old owners.

 

[Brian Noble]

How many years before expiration would it be feasible to drop capital reserve assessments?

No idea.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

While I will always have a soft spot for Swolphin, my points DID run out since my travel days stopped March 13, 2020. I had started to get disgruntled with their pricing and started staying elsewhere anyway. I did a single Swan stay last fall and it was definitely NOT the same. I used to bring my family for 10 days, but not anymore. The point chart got out of hand, and for a cash stay, there are better options too. DVC makes so much more sense, even though my choice of BWV doesn't (the heart wants what the heart wants). I priced out my ideal vacation days across a number of DVC properties (cash stay) vs. Disney moderates & value vs. off-site options (Swolphin and then Hotel Plaza Blvd) and the Swan Reserve would cost $6K MORE than the Grand Floridian. NO thank you! When I did the math, I realized I should have bought DVC sooner, and used my Marriott/Hilton points elsewhere.

For my ideal vacation days, here's how the various options fared on a per night basis:
GFV $454.13 cash rate vs. $421.69 renting points at $21PP vs. $145.39 DVC - cheapest of the DVC options I priced
BWV $758.30 cash vs. $269.34 renting points at $21PP vs. $190.21 DVC - most expensive DVC option I priced

Ranking options from most expensive to cheapest:
Swan Reserve $824.07
Swan $477.29
Dolphin $407.30
Port Orleans French Quarter $357.01
Coronado Springs $338.91
Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista $334.73
Drury Plaza $265.35
Wyndham Lake Buena Vista $259.96
Pop Century $257.63
All Stars $205.20
BWV $190.21
GFV $145.39 - SERIOUSLY

Your numbers really don't make sense. They are nothing I've ever seen with BWV or VGF lower than Pop, Port Orleans, Coronado and All Stars? Or are you mixing DVC MF's with cash prices?

 

[SkampyOne]

Your numbers really don't make sense. They are nothing I've ever seen with BWV or VGF lower than Pop, Port Orleans, Coronado and All Stars? Or are you mixing DVC MF's with cash prices?

For the DVC properties, I calculated rates 3 ways: cash rate (based on Disney's site), renting points (based on points chart), and ownership model which I calculated as total cost over contract life (buy in + MFs with some inflation built in) divided by years left for the contract, then divided by the 16 nights I was looking at to come up with the cost per night. Maybe not an exact science but it was definitely eye opening to realize that since I don't always travel during low season when hotel rates are more reasonable, that ownership made more sense.

 

[Brian Noble]

ownership model [...] buy in [...] divided by years left for the contract

It seems like this undervalues the cost of ownership. If I buy, I am not paying the buy-in cost evenly each year over the next many years. I am paying the buy-in cost up front. Those don't seem the same to me. For example, I would never loan someone $1,000 and have them pay me back $50/year for 20 years. And if someone offered me that deal, I'd take it every day and twice on Sundays.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I cannot reply to this, probably it's a decision the Management company can take more or less freely. I think they cannot use the capital server to do an unjustified refurbishment just before the end of the lease (to give the hotel back to Disney in a better status), and any unused capital reserve fund will be paid back to owners. So I think they'll use a resonable approch of having just a bit for emergencies available for the last few years.

No but they can do a LOT of general maintenance. Especially if there’s any properties they don’t plan to bulldoze.

If I owned Beach Club, VB, or HHI I wouldn’t worry too much about it. No sense in fixing up something you aren’t keeping.

 

[Chili327]

It seems like this undervalues the cost of ownership. If I buy, I am not paying the buy-in cost evenly each year over the next many years. I am paying the buy-in cost up front. Those don't seem the same to me. For example, I would never loan someone $1,000 and have them pay me back $50/year for 20 years. And if someone offered me that deal, I'd take it every day and twice on Sundays.

What would be a better way to calculate for comparison?
I'd love a (realistic) way to be able to compare places I would stay or have stayed in the past.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Your numbers really don't make sense. They are nothing I've ever seen with BWV or VGF lower than Pop, Port Orleans, Coronado and All Stars? Or are you mixing DVC MF's with cash prices?

I believe the numbers are a mix of cash prices (non-DVC) versus some sort of points purchase/rent calculation for BWV and VGF.

 

[Bearval]

Id also be curious to see how much work they will do on the 2042 resorts prior to expiration, shift the cost to the old owners and have a semi fresh resort to resell as part of DVC2.

They most likely will sell off VB, HH and tear down the other 2042s to rebuild. The infrastructure (plumbing, power HVAC) will be nearing the end of their life expectancy and you don’t want to have to replace it 15 to 20 years into a “new” resort,

 

[TinkAgainU]

Agree 100%. If only it were so easy to "read the indicators" and be so sure what a certain commodity or the overall economy will look like in 1 or 2 years. None of us would own DVC, we'd just have our butlers drive us over to MK from our 7 million dollar mansion in Golden Oak

Never forget, economists have predicted 27 out of the last 3 major recessions

I'm still laughing at this. Took me a second to sort it out.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Perplexing people aren’t aware we’re currently in recession while pretending as if we aren’t and that predicting one is impossible.

Recessions are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, something which definitely hasn’t happened yet, since the last quarter of 2022 saw 2.9 percent growth. We are also at record 50 year lows in unemployment. The Disney parks are still packed to the gills and generating huge profits (even if the rest of the company may not be at the moment). You seem to very much want it to be one way… but it’s the other way.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

For me, Swolphin is great. I dont’ want to buy a 2042 resort, and the cash rates are too high. I like the flexibility. I’ll save my DVC points for MK and AK and beaches for now. But, Swolphin is also very expensive, often a terrible use of Marriott points, and charges obscene amounts for parking - especially since Disney now doesn’t charge parking at resorts.

I wish Swolphin had 1 bedroom units with kitchens and washer/dryers . I further wish they didn’t cost a fortune if they existed.

 

[wilkydelts]

Recessions are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, something which definitely hasn’t happened yet, since the last quarter of 2022 saw 2.9 percent growth. We are also at record 50 year lows in unemployment. The Disney parks are still packed to the gills and generating huge profits (even if the rest of the company may not be at the moment). You seem to very much want it to be one way… but it’s the other way.

Wow!!

 

[DonMacGregor]

Recessions are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, something which definitely hasn’t happened yet, since the last quarter of 2022 saw 2.9 percent growth. We are also at record 50 year lows in unemployment. The Disney parks are still packed to the gills and generating huge profits (even if the rest of the company may not be at the moment). You seem to very much want it to be one way… but it’s the other way.

Even the most bearish of forecasts that say "Yes, we are in a recession", still anticipate a soft landing. Most others say it's going to be (or is) a mild, or "shallow" recession.

 

[tom1944]

Wow!!

Why wow?

 

[DL1WDW2]

I have always used BLT/ DVC for standard studio nights over NYE .
Tired of MK going to Epcot and booked Swan for just 2 nights w balcony view. Very surprised with total after taxes and fees .And a tax on parking too!
I completely forgot about all those different types of taxes added on and that experience of receiving a bill for checkout !
More reasons to appreciate the value with DVC . I’ll gladly pay dues to avoid that.
Altho I do miss the days when the bill arrived under the door ! Haha

(Also miss finding the Magic Express envelope hanging on your door handle …)

 

[Cfabar1]

I’m not convinced VB will be sold off, or HHI…. I think they will move to a portfolio points model where you buy points in the entire “trust” and not have a home resort where you own your points. THis is what Marriott and Hyatt do, and given the number of properties they will be selling, I think that’s what will happen….

 

[Disney_David]

Swan was a fantastic bargain on Starpoints before the Marriott merger. Now it’s a slightly below average Marriott redemption at peak season and a terrible use during low season, but OTOH, cash prices during low season can hit $200/night for a hotel with better dining options than most of the other Deluxes.

Off-site options should absolutely weigh into purchase decisions. That’s why Disneyland DVC will probably never be in the cards for us - the offsite options are frankly better for my family, at any price, AND as a bonus they’re a fraction of the cost of buying/using DVC there. And the on-site perks at DLR aren’t particularly important compared to WDW.

I have thought about VGC but come back to this every time for the same reason as what you said. Better offsite options. We stayed at the JW, got upgraded to a suite, perks of breakfast, snacks and drinks in the concierge lounge all day. That suits my pattern of taking breaks from the park during the day anyway. We’d go in the morning and come back for breakfast. Hard to justify VGC over that.