Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[ldo]

what is the going rate for AKV and what was it last year? I haven't kept up with pricing. When I was looking in 2014, AKV was about $5-7 more than SSR, as I recall. Isn't that about the same now?

 

[Brianstl]

I could be wrong. I have been trying to buy another poly for a few weeks and it seems that the inventory is much less than last year when I had purchased 3 polys.

Personally last year when I started shopping I had thought,
AKV was undervalued
VGF was overvalued
Could just be the market is adjusting.

According to https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-june-2020/ the only resort that had a price increase year over year at WDW in June was Boulder Ridge. AKV was flat. Poly was down $8 pp.

 

[CastAStone]

I could be wrong. I have been trying to buy another poly for a few weeks and it seems that the inventory is much less than last year when I had purchased 3 polys.

Personally last year when I started shopping I had thought,
AKV was undervalued
VGF was overvalued
Could just be the market is adjusting.

i agree that AKV is undervalued vs it’s general awesomeness. I ran a regression analysis once to understand if total number of points at a resort and resale price were correlated and they were highly correlated. I can’t remember if Animal Kingdom is the second or third largest Walt Disney World DVC, but it seems just having a lot of capacity makes an impact on pricing. With a little scarcity, it’s just not that hard to get a room at seven months.

By the way for any other statistic nerds, a regression analysis to predict price with variables of total points, years left, and dummy variables for each monorail and Crescent Lake gave me an r-squared of over .9

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

I could be wrong. I have been trying to buy another poly for a few weeks and it seems that the inventory is much less than last year when I had purchased 3 polys.

Personally last year when I started shopping I had thought,
AKV was undervalued
VGF was overvalued
Could just be the market is adjusting.

i agree that AKV is undervalued vs it’s general awesomeness.

I love it as a resort but transportation will always be a huge strike against it. As the price creeps closer to the monorail resorts it loses a lot of it's appeal.

Like most people though we have preferences and a hierarchy of the resorts. AKL is awesome but it's not BLT or Poly.

 

[CastAStone]

By the way for any other statistic nerds, a regression analysis to predict price with variables of total points, years left, and dummy variables for each monorail and Crescent Lake gave me an r-squared of over .9

This might be getting to literally no one cares at all but I thought this was interesting.

The model predicts a much lower price for OKW and a somewhat lower price for Beach Club, while predicting higher prices for Boardwalk and Boulder Ridge.

 

[davidl81]

This might be getting to literally no one cares at all but I thought this was interesting.

The model predicts a much lower price for OKW and a somewhat lower price for Beach Club, while predicting higher prices for Boardwalk and Boulder Ridge.
View attachment 515263
View attachment 515262

There is no logical reason OKW non extended should be within $10-$15 of SSR unless people really value the two queen beds. It has 12 less years on the resort and it’s location is sub optimal. No parks to walk to, and does not have the Disney Springs tie in that at least SSR has.

 

[exchanger]

This might be getting to literally no one cares at all but I thought this was interesting.

The model predicts a much lower price for OKW and a somewhat lower price for Beach Club, while predicting higher prices for Boardwalk and Boulder Ridge.
View attachment 515263
View attachment 515262

I don't want to venture too far off topic, but this type of analysis is fascinating to me. I've been a programmer for 15+ years, and would love to delve into statistical analysis in free time. Any tips on where to start? Feel free to PM (I'm a newb on the forum though -- I think I can get them, but I am not certain).

 

[sethschroeder]

AKV was undervalued

Nah math has just not self corrected yet. People get AKV for SAP points and as the price increases and SSR decreases threads and math will change back to buying SSR and ignoring AKV.

 

[sethschroeder]

This might be getting to literally no one cares at all but I thought this was interesting.

The model predicts a much lower price for OKW and a somewhat lower price for Beach Club, while predicting higher prices for Boardwalk and Boulder Ridge.
View attachment 515263
View attachment 515262

I can't see the prediction being true. While the rest of the data can be accurate BRV has a massive issue of CCV playing a massive role in its decline. You have a resort with 2x the lifespan, at the same location, and inside the main building instead of off to the side. BRV does have upsides in the types of rooms though.

Basically its like if BCV had a YCV to compete with then BCV would take a drastic hit IMO.

 

[glamdring269]

AKV is interesting. I really love the resort, and have stayed there multiple times, but see minimal need to own there as it is always easy to get into at 7 months. It's even easier to ignore it with the prices where they are currently.

I do understand that folks might buy specifically to get value rooms but that doesn't really appeal to me as it's either Savannah or bust at AKV for us.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

There is no logical reason OKW non extended should be within $10-$15 of SSR unless people really value the two queen beds. It has 12 less years on the resort and it’s location is sub optimal. No parks to walk to, and does not have the Disney Springs tie in that at least SSR has.

All I can figure is people are buying for SAP and not paying attention to the expiration date. When you're not planning to stay at the resort, it doesn't matter if the contract says OKW or SSR.

 

[Dean]

This might be getting to literally no one cares at all but I thought this was interesting.

The model predicts a much lower price for OKW and a somewhat lower price for Beach Club, while predicting higher prices for Boardwalk and Boulder Ridge.
View attachment 515263
View attachment 515262

Have you run this cross referencing room prices at the various resorts? Room prices are a pretty good marker of the inherent demand of a given resort. $$$ per point for a given room type for a year is likely the best measure of the relative value of one resort to another.

 

[CastAStone]

I can't see the prediction being true. While the rest of the data can be accurate BRV has a massive issue of CCV playing a massive role in its decline. You have a resort with 2x the lifespan, at the same location, and inside the main building instead of off to the side. BRV does have upsides in the types of rooms though.

Basically its like if BCV had a YCV to compete with then BCV would take a drastic hit IMO.

It's not trying to predict the future, its considering "if buyers are only taking into account these variables and no other ones, what would the price be?", and then see if there is real world variance with that. The variables I found created the best model were Total Points at the resort, Walkable to Epcot, On the Monorail, and number of years left, with dues and number of points per night making a very small impact as well. What the variance from the model is really saying is that the prices of OKW, BWV, BCV, and BRV can't be explained only by these 6 things. There is something else driving people to pay more for OKW and BCV and pay less for BWV and BRV.

I agree that the existence of (and active sale of and significant incentives on) CCV has hurt BRV and is likely that "something else" for that resort. I'm guessing for BCV it's Stormalong Bay driving the difference. Less sure about OKW and BWV.

 

[Dean]

All I can figure is people are buying for SAP and not paying attention to the expiration date. When you're not planning to stay at the resort, it doesn't matter if the contract says OKW or SSR.

True but one needs to compare long term costs including up front, Opportunity cost, dues and inflation of dues. The other variable for OKW, which would scare me immensely if I still owned points there (previously owned 552) is that in Feb, 2042 DVD will own roughly half (or more) of the resort) which could have a major impact on dues as well as usage. Until we know what they plan to do (resell, college program, just rent it, close down part) it's a huge variable and risk.

 

[CastAStone]

Have you run this cross referencing room prices at the various resorts? Room prices are a pretty good marker of the inherent demand of a given resort. $$$ per point for a given room type for a year is likely the best measure of the relative value of one resort to another.

I will check that at some point; programming in the resort prices is a PITA unless you know a better place to scrape them from than Mousesavers.

I also considered including something like Trip Advisor scores or something else to indicate consumer happiness, but it's hard to separate out the Villas from the resorts. I wonder if Touring Plans has a metric.

 

[Dean]

I will check that at some point; programming in the resort prices is a PITA unless you know a better place to scrape them from than Mousesavers.

I also considered including something like Trip Advisor scores or something else to indicate consumer happiness, but it's hard to separate out the Villas from the resorts. I wonder if Touring Plans has a metric.

I don't but it is the best way to compare the demand of one resort to another. Part of the issue is that there is a subjective component of desirability. I believe AK & WL have an inherently lower demand overall than some of the other DVC resorts. Certainly every resort has it's champions and detractors but what the masses are willing to pay for a given room ultimately determines the value in $$$ and points.

 

[TCRAIG]

According to https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-june-2020/ the only resort that had a price increase year over year at WDW in June was Boulder Ridge. AKV was flat. Poly was down $8 pp.

Of course WL/BRV price has increased - it’s the one I want to buy more of!

 

[bookwormde]

8/1 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100% of average

Since the aggregating site does not appear to be coming back I am now only posting what I can directly measure

 

[bookwormde]

Average listing price data from the 16th to the end of each month and ROFR data for the full month

I have added average actual selling price for April, May and June from DIS ROFR [] and April and May for the resller {} that posts actual selling price each month. The second number in OKW ROFR data is 2057

I have added my new listing data for July and preliminary DIS ROFR data for July

Again here is the format for listed under 5/1 for April 6/1 for May 7/1 for June and : Guess(New listings)[DIS ROFR][Reseller}

.........3/20 .....4/1 ....................5/1 .............................6/1 …..…..……...……7/1 …......................8/1 9/1

AKV 114 110(107) 105(110)[104]{104} 100(109)[103]{105} 96(117)[102]{111} 92(121)[112] 90

AUL 101 98(97) 95(98)[83]{93} 90(96)[ND]{95} 85(88)[88]{88} 82(101)[101] 80

BLT 150 140(147) 135(144)[145]{144} 130(148*)[138]{141} 128(148)[133]{141} 124(150)[139] 124

BCV 147 145(150) 140(143)[132]{141} 135(143)[ND]{144} 132(149)[152]{144} 130(152)[125] 128

BWV 126 120(120) 115(120)[119]{116} 110(121)[112]{116} 106(126)[110]{117} 103(125)[104] 100

BRV 100 95(100) 90(96)[92]{106} 85(103)[98]{97} 80(101)[97]{101} 76(110)[110] 72

CCV 155 150(150) 142(155)[132][146} 136(152)[138]{147} 128(154)[137]{147} 125(153)[145] 125

VGF 177 172(170) 168(163)[149]{157} 165(171)[153]{161} 162(170)[148]{157} 160(167)[154] 158

HH 81 78(76) 72(77)[ND]{75} 68(71)[ND]{71} 65(81)[78]{72} 62(80)[ND] 60

OKW 102 97(101) 90(104)[83/100]{98} 84(109)[88/104} 78(102)[95/99]{96} 72(110)[98/ND] 70

POLY 148 142(131) 136(136)[133]{137} 130(148*)[132]{140} 125(151)[140]{145} 120(154)[137] 120

SS 106 100(105) 94(100)[96]{98} 88(103)[92]{98} 85(104)[96]{101} 82(107)[95] 80

VB 67 64(68) 60(64)[ND]{63} 56(66)[63]{66} 52(ND) 50(64)[ND]{64} 48(72)[ND] 46

 

[bookwormde]

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15, 4/30, 5/15, 5/31 6/30 and 7/31 for each resort for reduced contracts The data used is from the 2 largest resellers

The sample size for some resorts is getting small, also 1 or 2 contracts that are more than 20 above the average are impacting the averages



Reduced

……3/31 4/15 4/30 5/15 5/31 6/30 7/31



AKV 110 109 109 104 96 ND 115

AUL 97 93 92 96 93 93 95

BLT 144 146 146 145 145 144 143

BCV 138 137 140 142 143 136 150

BWV 118 118 116 114 113 114 117

BRV 100 ND 94 94 94 94 94

CCV 148 150 150 148 128 146 146

VGF 168 168 168 168 166 166 167

HH 74 74 74 74 73 71 72

OKW 95 94 93 93 92 93 91

POLY 143 144 144 144 142 145 147

SS 102 98 101 101 102 100 100

VB 62 62 63 63 65 66 61