Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[Prince John Robin Hood]

Like what?

AP and Moonlight are the best ones along with maybe the discounts on food.

None of them are gone just on hiatus. Enough to give me pause to buy direct but waiting to see if and when they come back.

I semi watched the show this morning so missed it if he said more.

Also felt the show was a little cringy at times where it seemed pushy compared to informative but but have just been me.

It's at the very end of the show and he mentions AP and Moonlight magic as two missing benefits. He doesn't say AP won't come back but does go into why Moonlight Magic likely won't be back for a long time.

This episode did feel like an advertisement for at times but I enjoyed it overall.

 

[sethschroeder]

It's at the very end of the show and he mentions AP and Moonlight magic as two missing benefits. He doesn't say AP won't come back but does go into why Moonlight Magic likely won't be back for a long time.

This episode did feel like an advertisement for at times but I enjoyed it overall.

Oh I always like the episodes even if I don't like some of the points at time or think there is a little cringe (Rhino talking about fall cruises that you can still book).

 

[disneykim17]

Here is the list of direct benefits you can currently access, as best as I can tell:

• Epcot lounge
• Concierge Collection / Disney Collection
• Merch and food discounts
• ???

Also, Top of the World at Bay Lake Tower

 

[Shelle88]

Also, Top of the World at Bay Lake Tower

This is for all DVC members not just direct.

 

[Louis morrell]

Also, Top of the World at Bay Lake Tower

That's currently closed so you can scratch that benefit for now.

 

[bookwormde]

8/3 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 300% of average

 

[davidl81]

Some interesting points at the end of this weeks DVC Show podcast. They brought up the fact that ROFR not being exercised likely hurts direct sales in that resale becomes more and more attractive as prices drop. Pete also brought up the fact that most of the best direct benefits have disappeared.
Team white card is looking better and better to me.

But as of right now we do not see any substantial drop in resale prices. Maybe that happens later this year or early 2021, but it is just speculation. And if prices do start to drop enough I am confident Disney will start ROFR again. Too much capital deployed at RIV to allow resale to become too attractive.

 

[Dean]

But as of right now we do not see any substantial drop in resale prices. Maybe that happens later this year or early 2021, but it is just speculation. And if prices do start to drop enough I am confident Disney will start ROFR again. Too much capital deployed at RIV to allow resale to become too attractive.

Sales prices will drop before listing prices do. It will take time. Whether things just sell slower or price truly drop depends on how much and how long the overall economic impact is. My view is that they will drop substantially. With the last turn down DVD did very little ROFR preserving cash, I suspect the same is already happening this time around and some historically great deals will be clearing ROFR.

 

[chunks]

But as of right now we do not see any substantial drop in resale prices. Maybe that happens later this year or early 2021, but it is just speculation. And if prices do start to drop enough I am confident Disney will start ROFR again. Too much capital deployed at RIV to allow resale to become too attractive.

That isnt how disney would be thinking about this. They dont care about protecting resale prices. The only time they (if they were smart business people, which I assume they are) exercise ROFR is when they already have someone lined up to buy it direct from them at a premium (or can be reasonably expected to get someone shortly). Since they foreclose on maintenance fee and mortgage defaults (which I imagine will be higher at the moment), the direct sales market is struggling, they already have RIV contracts for sale, and they are burning cash in general, I find it very hard to believe that they are going to exercise much ROFR. Specifically, I think the foreclosures will be pretty much in-line with the direct sales of "sold-out" properties, thus limiting the financial upside for them to buy back even more properties.

 

[Matty B13]

People also have to remember that DVC can't ROFR every contract, and right now even if they have a little cash on hand to ROFR a random low ball contract, they don't have enough capital to ROFR enough to set a bottom for resale contracts. Later this year we will see how many contracts are in distress when maintenance fees come due in January.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

But as of right now we do not see any substantial drop in resale prices. Maybe that happens later this year or early 2021, but it is just speculation. And if prices do start to drop enough I am confident Disney will start ROFR again. Too much capital deployed at RIV to allow resale to become too attractive.

It's amazing how detrimental DVC professes resale to be to them until there's financial issues they are dealing with. Then it's crickets about it. I would not count on them ROFRing much for awhile. The majority of sales is to park visitors who are enjoying the magic and see the signs about DVC. They'll go take the tour and be sold on Riviera and/or CCV. The timeshare sales people will come up with some new selling points if necessary.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

That isnt how disney would be thinking about this. They dont care about protecting resale prices. The only time they (if they were smart business people, which I assume they are) exercise ROFR is when they already have someone lined up to buy it direct from them at a premium (or can be reasonably expected to get someone shortly). Since they foreclose on maintenance fee and mortgage defaults (which I imagine will be higher at the moment), the direct sales market is struggling, they already have RIV contracts for sale, and they are burning cash in general, I find it very hard to believe that they are going to exercise much ROFR. Specifically, I think the foreclosures will be pretty much in-line with the direct sales of "sold-out" properties, thus limiting the financial upside for them to buy back even more properties.

They haven't really exhibited a thought process like that of ROFRing when they have a buyer lined up nor do I actually think that's a very good strategy as it would be rather time consuming and eat into the margin. I also don't think they view ROFR as protecting resale prices for the members but I do think they are smart to take steps to keep them higher. Over they years I feel there's a trend that if the gap between resale and direct gets large enough then there are people who will shift to resale and forgo the feel good aspect of buying from Disney and the perks. Anecdotal but that's what my perception has been. The easiest way to support high direct prices is high resale prices where there's not much of a fiscal argument to make between the two. There are other things that will factor in depending on the person buying but if there's a big gap on the fiscal side it's a much easier decision for many.

 

[Lorana]

Here is the list of direct benefits you can currently access, as best as I can tell:

• Epcot lounge
• Concierge Collection / Disney Collection
• Merch and food discounts
• ???

• Points usable at Riviera (and future resorts)

 

[RoseGold]

The majority of sales is to park visitors who are enjoying the magic and see the signs about DVC. They'll go take the tour and be sold on Riviera and/or CCV.

ROFR is also part of the sales strategy. They use ROFR to close the deal to starstruck visitors who want "sold out" points. No need to do that for a while.

 

[Brian Noble]

And if prices do start to drop enough I am confident Disney will start ROFR again.

They didn't during the Great Recession.

 

[CastAStone]

They didn't during the Great Recession.

How long did they hold off for (to the best you remember)?

 

[sethschroeder]

How long did they hold off for (to the best you remember)?

https://www.disboards.com/threads/a...-it-through-rofr-recently-section-iv.2661661/
You can check out this thread from 2011/12 not sure if there is anything before that. I have zero clue as I wasn't looking at DVC at that point. There seemed to be taken contracts in 2011 from the looks of it.

 

[chunks]

They haven't really exhibited a thought process like that of ROFRing when they have a buyer lined up nor do I actually think that's a very good strategy as it would be rather time consuming and eat into the margin. I also don't think they view ROFR as protecting resale prices for the members but I do think they are smart to take steps to keep them higher. Over they years I feel there's a trend that if the gap between resale and direct gets large enough then there are people who will shift to resale and forgo the feel good aspect of buying from Disney and the perks. Anecdotal but that's what my perception has been. The easiest way to support high direct prices is high resale prices where there's not much of a fiscal argument to make between the two. There are other things that will factor in depending on the person buying but if there's a big gap on the fiscal side it's a much easier decision for many.

High resale prices exist because they have a product that people want. High direct prices exist because they have a product that people want. The easiest way to support high direct prices is to build something people want and are willing to pay for. Exercising rofr has nothing to do with keeping resale prices up other than that it is a byproduct (if there are x buyers at $100/pt and Disney keeps taking the supply by ROFR, then the price is naturally going to increase). If anything Disney would be interested in resale going down so they could buy more and increase their margins (assuming they had someone interested in purchasing it).

 

[sethschroeder]

High resale prices exist because they have a product that people want. High direct prices exist because they have a product that people want. The easiest way to support high direct prices is to build something people want and are willing to pay for. Exercising rofr has nothing to do with keeping resale prices up other than that it is a byproduct (if there are x buyers at $100/pt and Disney keeps taking the supply by ROFR, then the price is naturally going to increase). If anything Disney would be interested in resale going down so they could buy more and increase their margins (assuming they had someone interested in purchasing it).

To an extent but resale has to be missing key things for people to forgo resale for direct at larger deltas.

Here is the future issues:

• COVID19 is going to dramatically put "timeshares are bad" to the forefront
• A larger percentage of buyers are from the "internet age" and soon the "cellphone age" meaning they look up everything online
• As prices go down on resale it will be posted more that DVC is like "any other timeshare" with no resale market (most people right now even when selling come out fairly good) which will turn the general perspective when searching about DVC
• As prices go down its hard to institute higher direct prices, its easy to put in a $20/point price increase on all resorts when resale is increasing
• 2042 contracts will start their steady decline in 2032 as they count down the decade to expiration, giving people the ability to buy a resale contract as a rental alternative vs today where its a large investment for 25+ years and thus people are more willing to splurge on direct pricing
• Every resale contract that doesn't get taken lowers the next contract that much more, when a ROFR is exercised it does the flipside and raises the future prices as buyer A already has a contract and is not competing with buyer B on the next contract.

They have to balance lots of things and its not a simple task to unwrap it all.

Just to note there will always be people who are clueless but that will become more difficult as less people are from prior to the information age. It will also be harder to have "semi-clueless" buyers who only do a "is DVC a scam" search to find today that many people are happy with it.

 

[glamdring269]

I wouldn't expect a lot of ROFR activity anytime soon.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-loses-nearly-5-billion-as-pandemic-slams-theme-parks-11596573570