Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[Bowen Family]

ROFR is/has always been a threat. DVC will step in if they feel a price is too low - that is good for owners. If owners are keeping their contracts (the majority) then the "value" to speculators is irrelevant to us as owners. I have the "vehicle" to stay at WDW for as little as $70+/- for a studio at AKV so I am a happy camper as are the majority of DVC members.

There is way more to value than just an average price...UY, size of contract, number of points, banked points all can skew the value. I developed my own calculation to determine the value of a contract. My DH and I have actually randomly looked at contracts in the past, to prove our own calculator and many contracts that seem to our trained eyes (25 years) to be a great deal often are not. I just insert the numbers and in a couple minutes I can determine if it is a steal or not. Sticker price isn't a good indicator for me as I need the bottom line!

I’m really interested in this formula you’ve developed! Can you please elaborate on your variables? For example, what is the difference between size of contract and # of points? Is the former the # of years left?

And how does UY factor in? I’m guessing the closer you buy to the start of the UY, the greater the flexibility?

Just thinking of entering the resale market so any additional insight is appreciated! Thanks!

 

[E2ME2]

Just saw a SSR 1200 point contract sell @ 76 a point

Ooh - let me get that $91K out of my cash drawer !
That's a huge Contract.
ET

 

[MICKIMINI]

When evaluating a contract I look at:
UY Oct (our personal UY)
Size How many points are available reaching back 2 years, current and next year
#Pts Number of points in contract annually
Banked Useable points in other words, points that do not expire before you can actually rent/transfer/use

I take the price (my offer) plus closing costs and current year MF's. My goal is not to pay MF's on past years. That is the total cost. I then rent (now I'll likely transfer) the two years but not current or next year. I take that income off the cost of total cost and then go forward using points. At some point I will likely flip the contract. Taxes factor in on rental or transfer.

I'm currently looking for a 100-160 pt AKL. My goal price for 100 points is $90 PP (we'll see in 2-3 mo). Buy 100 pts at $90. Transfer 200 pts @ $16 = $3200. Closing $600+/- and MF's (1 yr) $800+/-

100 x $90 = $9000 + $600 + $800 = $10400 - $3200 = $7200 net or $72 PP

It's really just a way to purchase extra points from a loaded contract and reduce the cost of the contract. I'd spend a lot of time reading disboards and learning all you can about DVC. I'm not a financial guru or anything, I just try to get the best deal possible and this has worked well for us. Good luck!

 

[Bowen Family]

When evaluating a contract I look at:
UY Oct (our personal UY)
Size How many points are available reaching back 2 years, current and next year
#Pts Number of points in contract annually
Banked Useable points in other words, points that do not expire before you can actually rent/transfer/use

I take the price (my offer) plus closing costs and current year MF's. My goal is not to pay MF's on past years. That is the total cost. I then rent (now I'll likely transfer) the two years but not current or next year. I take that income off the cost of total cost and then go forward using points. At some point I will likely flip the contract. Taxes factor in on rental or transfer.

I'm currently looking for a 100-160 pt AKL. My goal price for 100 points is $90 PP (we'll see in 2-3 mo). Buy 100 pts at $90. Transfer 200 pts @ $16 = $3200. Closing $600+/- and MF's (1 yr) $800+/-

100 x $90 = $9000 + $600 + $800 = $10400 - $3200 = $7200 net or $72 PP

It's really just a way to purchase extra points from a loaded contract and reduce the cost of the contract. I'd spend a lot of time reading disboards and learning all you can about DVC. I'm not a financial guru or anything, I just try to get the best deal possible and this has worked well for us. Good luck!

This is really great info. Thank you!!

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

I'm currently looking for a 100-160 pt AKL. My goal price for 100 points is $90 PP (we'll see in 2-3 mo). Buy 100 pts at $90. Transfer 200 pts @ $16 = $3200. Closing $600+/- and MF's (1 yr) $800+/-

100 x $90 = $9000 + $600 + $800 = $10400 - $3200 = $7200 net or $72 PP

Your strategy is very impressive!! My problem is I want all those points--greedy Disney addict I am!!
p.s. Does profit from renting/transferring points have to be declared on taxes? Just wondering.

 

[striker1064]

p.s. Does profit from renting/transferring points have to be declared on taxes? Just wondering.

Sure does.

 

[MICKIMINI]

Your strategy is very impressive!! My problem is I want all those points--greedy Disney addict I am!!
p.s. Does profit from renting/transferring points have to be declared on taxes? Just wondering.

Yes, unfortunately!

 

[keishashadow]

When evaluating a contract I look at:
UY Oct (our personal UY)
Size How many points are available reaching back 2 years, current and next year
#Pts Number of points in contract annually
Banked Useable points in other words, points that do not expire before you can actually rent/transfer/use

I take the price (my offer) plus closing costs and current year MF's. My goal is not to pay MF's on past years. That is the total cost. I then rent (now I'll likely transfer) the two years but not current or next year. I take that income off the cost of total cost and then go forward using points. At some point I will likely flip the contract. Taxes factor in on rental or transfer.

I'm currently looking for a 100-160 pt AKL. My goal price for 100 points is $90 PP (we'll see in 2-3 mo). Buy 100 pts at $90. Transfer 200 pts @ $16 = $3200. Closing $600+/- and MF's (1 yr) $800+/-

100 x $90 = $9000 + $600 + $800 = $10400 - $3200 = $7200 net or $72 PP

It's really just a way to purchase extra points from a loaded contract and reduce the cost of the contract. I'd spend a lot of time reading disboards and learning all you can about DVC. I'm not a financial guru or anything, I just try to get the best deal possible and this has worked well for us. Good luck!

You’ve pretty much complied all the strategies that have been bantered about here in the past that most of us have likely employed.

DH is itching to take a stab at things. I’m dragging my feet, mostly for two concerns:

Possibility of increased dues &

Whether we realistically would be able to utilize a well-banked contract (even at resorts I’d rather not visit). There are just so many others cancelling & rebooking reservations, inventory may be disappearing quickly.

We last added onto AK a little less than 3 years ago..70 points at $78 a points, loaded contract.

We pay cash, prefer smaller addons but the closing costs tend to skew the final point price

No stats to back it up, but it seems as though our original October UY for two of our home resorts, appears to be very popular. December (our various AKV contracts) seems to have more inventory when I do look.

 

[RhodyKP]

"I then rent (now I'll likely transfer) the two years but not current or next year. I take that income off the cost of total cost and then go forward using points."

Just curious - has your (or would your) analysis changed in light of the uncertainty as to when the parks will reopen? I'm having a hard time seeing any value in pre-current year points right now.

 

[MICKIMINI]

You’ve pretty much complied all the strategies that have been bantered about here in the past that most of us have likely employed.

DH is itching to take a stab at things. I’m dragging my feet, mostly for two concerns:

Possibility of increased dues &

Whether we realistically would be able to utilize a well-banked contract (even at resorts I’d rather not visit). There are just so many others cancelling & rebooking reservations, inventory may be disappearing quickly.

We last added onto AK a little less than 3 years ago..70 points at $78 a points, loaded contract.

We pay cash, prefer smaller addons but the closing costs tend to skew the final point price

No stats to back it up, but it seems as though our original October UY for two of our home resorts, appears to be very popular. December (our various AKV contracts) seems to have more inventory when I do look.

You did well with your last add on! I think there is plenty of time to contemplate where prices will land. Crazy as it sounds, I focus on the ideal contract and just about the time I lose hope - there it is. It has happened more than a few times weird as it sounds. No hurry!

 

[MICKIMINI]

Just curious - has your (or would your) analysis changed in light of the uncertainty as to when the parks will reopen? I'm having a hard time seeing any value in pre-current year points right now.

The analysis hasn't changed IMO. I'm waiting too. DH and I have been debating our next contract and then Friday's announcement came along. I spent the weekend contemplating it and as I don't buy stripped contracts it won't matter in that direction. There are plenty of points in our account now, so we don't need to borrow anyway as we cancelled two trips this year and have plenty for next.

You are right - the only concern is actually using what is banked. That is always the biggest consideration. I'm fronting the money and counting on those two years of rentals or transfers to offset the purchase price. I don't overpay regardless and we pay cash. It would not be the end of the world if we didn't get the offset, but I would certainly be bummed about it! Timing the purchase at the end of the calendar year for our October UY has worked well and I can then rent (or now transfer) points early in the following year.

I agree that prices are way to high now - totally unrealistic, but the market has not shifted much yet. It will. I'm hoping that parks reopen this summer and I believe prices will continue to go down this fall and that's when we will try to find the right deal(s). IMO it will take a couple years for prices to return to the highly inflated 2019-20 prices. I could be totally wrong and only time will tell.

 

[DougEMG]

I agree this will be a big part, but I also think that owners who simply want to sell can influence this as well. If they're just done with it, they might just take whatever they're offered. And if the market is coming down then what they're offered will be less. I hate to use the car analogy, but how many of us just took whatever the dealer gave us for our trade-in when we bought a new car. I know I've been guilty of that a few times.

Some of the things that influence the prices that sellers put their contracts up for: what are current resale prices, what is the broker telling you to sell for and finally how quickly do you want to sell.

As an example, way back I sold a BWV contract. I set my price 20% higher than all other BWV contracts on the market. The broker said I was listing too high. At that time, there were not a lot of BWV contracts for sale. I had multiple BWV contracts, placed them all up for sale at multiple brokers which meant that half of all active BWV listings were my contracts. Well the lower priced ones sold first, but other people listing their BWV started listing at my price. End result was that I sold the contract at the price I wanted.

Now we'll see things happen in reverse. Someone needing to sell will price a little lower than everyone else so they sell fast. Will another seller come in a undercut that previous seller. If that keeps happening you could see a big price drop. For that to happen I think this downturn needs to last for a long time and effect a lot of DVC owners. It isn't like someone can sell and have the money next week. It takes a long time to get the money from a sale, normally a minimum of 2 months, more like 3 months.

 

[bookwormde]

4/27 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100% of average

 

[bookwormde]

4/28 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100% of average

 

[Jaguar Skills]

4/28 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100% of average

Hi, we are new to this, can someone explain what the phrase means?

 

[Noles235]

4/28 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100% of average

New listings have definitely slowed down from late last week when SSR seemed to keep coming. Unfortunately, of those listings, we could not agree on a purchase price. Looks to be firming up a bit on some that took a hit recently.

 

[DisMomKY]

New listings have definitely slowed down from late last week when SSR seemed to keep coming. Unfortunately, of those listings, we could not agree on a purchase price. Looks to be firming up a bit on some that took a hit recently.

I wonder if it’s because it looks like there is an end in sight to Disney being closed and DVC making the adjustment to banking for those who had to cancel in April

 

[Jason_79]

Ooh - let me get that $91K out of my cash drawer !
That's a huge Contract.
ET

fun fact, this contract had an offer accepted. Was it you!? haha

 

[chris_ant]

fun fact, this contract had an offer accepted. Was it you!? haha

This may actually be a interesting case for ROFR, depending on final price of course. If the buyer negotiated a deal since it was a larger contract, DVD could see this as an opportunity to acquire at a lower price a larger bulk to potentially resale. Disney still has deeper pockets than the vast majority of us, so why buy back lower point contracts at higher prices?

 

[E2ME2]

fun fact, this contract had an offer accepted. Was it you!? haha

Don't I wish!
Def. not me, but it will be interesting to see if it gets through ROFR. And, if it does, I would like to know what the buyer offered. (and if he/she would be my new BFF and share those points)