Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[Anuhea35]

Just wanted to post here too since I know you guys were waiting. I PASSED!!!

Anuhea35---$75-$5110-60-OKW-Dec-0/18, 60/19, 60/20, 60/21- sent 4/15 - PASSED! 4/29

 

[Brianstl]

Just wanted to post here too since I know you guys were waiting. I PASSED!!!

Anuhea35---$75-$5110-60-OKW-Dec-0/18, 60/19, 60/20, 60/21- sent 4/15 - PASSED! 4/29

What is that I hear? Crashing prices.

 

[CastAStone]

Just wanted to post here too since I know you guys were waiting. I PASSED!!!

Anuhea35---$75-$5110-60-OKW-Dec-0/18, 60/19, 60/20, 60/21- sent 4/15 - PASSED! 4/29

I am SO jealous. Nice find. Did you find it on one of the major resale sites or was this something you stumbled across more on your own? And may I ask what asking was?

 

[wallawallakids]

Just wanted to post here too since I know you guys were waiting. I PASSED!!!

Anuhea35---$75-$5110-60-OKW-Dec-0/18, 60/19, 60/20, 60/21- sent 4/15 - PASSED! 4/29

That is amazing!! Congratulations!!

 

[bookwormde]

4/29 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 80% of average

I will be adding a DIS ROFR monthly average report also adjusted for standard current points and typical closing costs

I am currently using $12/pt for the adjustments since that appears to be a good average of both maintenance plus capital cost to expiration and rent value less taxes.

 

[macman123]

I will be adding a DIS ROFR monthly average report also adjusted for standard current points and typical closing costs

I know DVC Resale offers the ROFR average, is it generally anywhere else?

The daily update on contract volumes is very helpful by the way, so thanks!

 

[kboo]

This may actually be a interesting case for ROFR, depending on final price of course. If the buyer negotiated a deal since it was a larger contract, DVD could see this as an opportunity to acquire at a lower price a larger bulk to potentially resale. Disney still has deeper pockets than the vast majority of us, so why buy back lower point contracts at higher prices?

Back in 2017 (?) when I was looking for VGF points, there was a 1200 point contract on resale - I wasn't able to track all the way to the OC website, but I think it was asking below $125 pp and was not ROFR'd.

 

[RoseGold]

I've been watching VGF. Pricing was at 155-160 the last couple weeks, and is finally dipping to 150-155.

My target is 2017 pricing, so about 145, and we might get there!

 

[chris_ant]

Back in 2017 (?) when I was looking for VGF points, there was a 1200 point contract on resale - I wasn't able to track all the way to the OC website, but I think it was asking below $125 pp and was not ROFR'd.

Who knows what drives them to make the decisions they do. What I think separates the two in my mind is DVD could buy back those points at $5 less than asking and then resale them direct at more than double their cost. I don't think that would have been the case had they bought the VGF in 2017. That wouldn't guarantee either contract bought, just a glimpse into my thinking about that particular contract. Especially given the current situation, I would guess these are selling at a much larger % discount relative to the other. But isn't that what keeps us all guessing what will pass?

 

[bookwormde]

4/30 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 80% of average

 

[bookbunny]

To answer you question, personally, I think these numbers are optimistic. In the past few days alone, prices have already dropped at some resort to your May or June levels. Listings for VGF in the high 150s, AKL at 105, BCV in the 130s...

I think we're going to see a much steeper drop.

We have not bought into DVC yet, but a good deal would be mighty tempting.

I agree. The numbers have been coming down on the PP. Would I buy if the price for let's say BCV drops to $120 or even $100? Yes I would. But we are now in a holding pattern to see when Disney is able to reopen and when can people really start making reservations. I have one for September but I starting to wonder if they will be opening all four parks by then.

 

[bookwormde]

5/1 new contract levels updated on post 1 and are below

These represent the averages from 4/16 to 4/30

Total count of new contracts for the 5 sites is 190 (135 for 4/1 to 4/15)

actuals in (###)

.........3/20 .....4/1 ............5/1 ...6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1

AKV 114 110(107) 105(110) 100 96 92 90

AUL 101 98(97) 95(98) 90 85 82 80

BLT 150 140(147) 135(144) 130 128 124 124

BCV 147 145(150) 140(143) 135 132 130 128

BWV 126 120(120) 115(120) 110 106 103 100

BRV 100 95(100) 90(96) 85 80 76 72

CCV 155 150(150) 142(155) 136 128 125 125

VGF 177 172(170) 168(163) 165 162 160 158

HH 81 78(76) 72(77) 68 65 62 60

OKW 102 97(101) 90(104) 84 78 72 70

POLY 148 142(131) 136(136) 130 125 120 120

SS 106 100(105) 94(100) 88 85 82 80

VB 67 64(68) 60(64) 56 52 50 48

 

[bookwormde]

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15 and 4/30 for each resort for reduced contract The data used is from the 2 largest resellers



Reduced

..…...3/31 4/15 4/30



AKV 110 109 109

AUL 97 93 92

BLT 144 146 146

BCV 138 137 140

BWV 118 118 116

BRV 100 ND 94

CCV 148 150 150

VGF 168 168 168

HH 74 74 74

OKW 95 94 93

POLY 143 144 144

SS 102 98 101

VB 62 62 63

 

[E2ME2]

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15 and 4/30 for each resort for reduced contract The data used is from the 2 largest resellers



Reduced

..…...3/31 4/15 4/30



AKV 110 109 109

AUL 97 93 92

BLT 144 146 146

BCV 138 137 140

BWV 118 118 116

BRV 100 ND 94

CCV 148 150 150

VGF 168 168 168

HH 74 74 74

OKW 95 94 93

POLY 143 144 144

SS 102 98 101

VB 62 62 63

So on average, there was an uptick in the prices from 4/15 to 4/30 ??

 

[bookwormde]

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15 and 4/30 for each resort for pending contracts The data used is from the 2 largest resellers



Pending

………3/31 4/15 4/30 5/15 5/31 6/15 6/30



AKV 109 108 109 100 96 92 90

AUL 96 97 97 90 85 82 80

BLT 137 141 144 130 128 124 124

BCV 140 138 140 135 132 130 128

BWV 118 121 121 110 106 103 100

BRV 98 98 97 85 80 76 72

CCV 147 147 150 136 128 125 125

VGF 164 163 161 165 162 160 158

HH 75 76 75 68 65 62 60

OKW 93 93 93 84 78 72 70

POLY 146 146 146 130 125 120 120

SS 101 101 102 88 85 82 80

VB 71 67 67 56 52 50 48

 

[bookwormde]

So on average, there was an uptick in the prices from 4/15 to 4/30 ??

My impression was that prices were on whole unchanged

 

[E2ME2]

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15 and 4/30 for each resort for pending contracts The data used is from the 2 largest resellers



Pending

………3/31 4/15 4/30 5/15 5/31 6/15 6/30



AKV 109 108 109 100 96 92 90

AUL 96 97 97 90 85 82 80

BLT 137 141 144 130 128 124 124

BCV 140 138 140 135 132 130 128

BWV 118 121 121 110 106 103 100

BRV 98 98 97 85 80 76 72

CCV 147 147 150 136 128 125 125

VGF 164 163 161 165 162 160 158

HH 75 76 75 68 65 62 60

OKW 93 93 93 84 78 72 70

POLY 146 146 146 130 125 120 120

SS 101 101 102 88 85 82 80

VB 71 67 67 56 52 50 48

Are you predicting through 6/30 ??

 

[bookwormde]

Below is the data from April 2020 DIS ROFR

It is preliminary pending final posts

The formulas are a work in progress

It included the number of sales, average face purchase price as well as the price adjusted too standard current points, MF paid and other items such as seller paying closing. I have also included the high and low with points of those contracts where there is more than 1



AKV 6

Average face 102 low face 95/100 high face 107/100

Adjusted face 105 low adjusted 95/100 high adjusted 111/100

AUL 0

BLT 4

Average face 135 low face 130/150 high face 140/120

Adjusted face 135 low adjusted 131/120 high adjusted 142/150

BCV 4

Average face 145 low face 138/100 high face 155/30

Adjusted face 145 low adjusted 126/100 high adjusted 160/30

BWV 4

Average face 111 low face 108/300 high face 116/150

Adjusted face 115 low adjusted 110/150 high adjusted 119/150

BRV 1

Face 88/220

Adjusted face 93/220

CCV 1

Face 139/220

Adjusted face 155/220

VGF 2

Average face 153 low face 150/200 high face 155/150

Adjusted face 157 low adjusted 155/200 high adjusted 158/150

OKW42 2

Average face 83 low face 75/60 high face 90/100

Adjusted face 83 low adjusted 75/60 high adjusted 90/100

OKW57 1

Face 90/100

Adjusted face 104/100

Poly 4

Average face 138 low face 120/100 high face 165/30

Adjusted face 141 low adjusted 120/100 high adjusted 169/30

SSR 5

Average face 97 low face 92/100 high face 108/30

Adjusted face 95 low adjusted 84/150 high adjusted 100/220

VB 0

 

[bookwormde]

Are you predicting through 6/30 ??

Pending is such a lagging indicator since they stay up till closing (or even later) that I did not think an estimated had much value.

I also was not expecting the list price to selling price to widen so far apart, so my post 1 guesses should best align with whatever actual sale price data we can find

 

[bookwormde]

5/1 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 50% of average