What's in a BLT? - Or, Configuration of the Tower *UPDATED 11/23*

[chrisw127]

I had some questions about availability and was directed to this thread all I can say is WOW!! and Thanks!!!

I've got to concur. Thanks.

 

[dizfan]

You make a very interesting point. I also suspect, but don't know for a fact, that all of the MK view villas are located on center portion of the BLT crescent; there are villas on the north portion from which you can see the MK, but they are labelled as LV rooms (see Jonesmatny's live trip blog from BLT). Lark estimates there are only 54 two-bedroom villas that will be labelled as MK view. However, I think there are 62 villas that are MK views. I think Lark counted only those villas on floors 4 through 12. However, in someone's trip report, I thought I read that they were assigned an MK view villa on the 3rd floor. I wonder if the 2nd and 3rd floors will be considered MK views. We'll need to get confirmation from a reliable source on this point.

I read somewhere that the 3rd floor and up in the center section is MK view.
2nd floor and lower is standard view.

This matches pre-opening reports that there are 20 MK view studios.

 

[lark]

Thanks everyone. In looking at the plans, and in looking at the other newest resort (VGC), I'm a bit surprised at how many dedicated 2 BRs there are.

I wonder what the purpose is for having so many. Looking at the floorplans, they are identical in size and nearly identical in floorplan (except for the kitchenette of course).

I would have thought that lockoffs would be much more desirable for disney, since it gives them so much more flexibility. Is it customer demand that makes people who want 2BRs demand the dedicated units? Or is there some zoning or other monetary benefit that they get if they have more dedicated units and thus fewer overall potential units? I would think it would tend to make 1 BRs and studios sell out faster. I can't imagine why that would be in disney's interest.

 

[DVCGeek]

I would think it would tend to make 1 BRs and studios sell out faster. I can't imagine why that would be in disney's interest.

I hate to be a Mouse conspiracy theorist but maybe to try and 'force' people to use (& therefore buy?) more points than they otherwise would? I dunno; I am looking to try and always book a studio and therefore use my DVC to stay at a Deluxe for less than what a std. view moderate with 20% AAA discount would have cost me! Maybe that isn't the type of consumer DVD really wants???

 

[dismedvc]

You make a very interesting point. I also suspect, but don't know for a fact, that all of the MK view villas are located on center portion of the BLT crescent; there are villas on the north portion from which you can see the MK, but they are labelled as LV rooms (see Jonesmatny's live trip blog from BLT). Lark estimates there are only 54 two-bedroom villas that will be labelled as MK view. However, I think there are 62 villas that are MK views. I think Lark counted only those villas on floors 4 through 12. However, in someone's trip report, I thought I read that they were assigned an MK view villa on the 3rd floor. I wonder if the 2nd and 3rd floors will be considered MK views. We'll need to get confirmation from a reliable source on this point.

If the third floor of the center section is MK view, but not the second floor (as someone above was told by MS) then there are 58 2BR's MK views, and excluding the GV 58/267 = 21.7% MK view. Also, if all 27 of the 1st and 2nd floor 2BR's are catagorized as standard view, that makes 27/267 or 10.1% Standard view.

To get the percentages to work out closer to what has been reported earlier (20% MK and 11% SV) the numbers in the paragraph above would have to be adjusted to have 4 2BR's removed from MK view and added to SV since 54/267 = 20.2% and 31/267= 11.6%. I wonder if those 4 2BR's on the 3rd floor center section were originally planned to be catagorized as SV?

 

[wdrl]

If the third floor of the center section is MK view, but not the second floor (as someone above was told by MS) then there are 58 2BR's MK views, and excluding the GV 58/267 = 21.7% MK view. Also, if all 27 of the 1st and 2nd floor 2BR's are catagorized as standard view, that makes 27/267 or 10.1% Standard view.

To get the percentages to work out closer to what has been reported earlier (20% MK and 11% SV) the numbers in the paragraph above would have to be adjusted to have 4 2BR's removed from MK view and added to SV since 54/267 = 20.2% and 31/267= 11.6%. I wonder if those 4 2BR's on the 3rd floor center section were originally planned to be catagorized as SV?

You make a very good point. Your math supports the idea that the third floor rooms were originally included in the standard-view category and subsequently redefined as MK-view rooms.

 

[dizfan]

Updated 8/21/09.

I've been going through all the BLT contracts on the OCC web site.

I went through all contracts listed as Grantor: Disney Vacation Development (so any contract that doesn't have that name, I missed).
Initially went through all Deeds and Deed Mortgages for each unit that's been declared (1A - 99C) from 9/1/2008 - 7/24/2009. Only checked the attachment (photocopy of the document) for those listed with the word Bay or Contemporary or no description.
Then, I went through all Deeds and Deed Mortgages from 7/25-8/17/2009. Only checked the attachment (photocopy of the document) for those listed with the word Bay or Contemporary or no description.
At present, the OCC web site states all documents through 8/17/2009 have been proofed, so I did not go through documents after that date.

I did not look at contracts documented for Boardwalk, Saratoga, Wilderness, etc so if the OCC put the wrong Legal description for those, I missed them

Contracts are documented several weeks/days after they have been submitted to Disney Vacation Development, so this is really a snapshot of sales data from 2-6 weeks ago.

Here's what I've found in the documented contracts through 8/17/2009
11808 total contracts
1,965,641 total points sold

Room UY Cont Sold Total
02A Feb 228 38002 39280
02B Mar 130 18623 19640
03A Mar 252 35730 39280
03B Apr 136 19083 19640
04A Apr 244 35256 39280
04B Jun 125 19008 19640
05A --- --- ------- -------
05B Aug 130 18414 19640
05C Aug 129 19033 19640
06A Sep 234 35350 39280
06B Sep 133 19199 19640
07A Oct 138 18842 19640
07B Oct 142 18058 19640
07C Dec 130 18916 19640
08A Dec 260 36441 39280
08B Feb 101 19236 19640
09A Dec 115 18108 19640
09B Feb 115 18843 19640
09C Feb 114 19204 19640
10A Mar 102 16386 39280
10B Apr 134 17444 19640
11A Feb 102 17992 19640
11B Feb 92 17926 19640
11C Feb 110 17811 19640
12A Jun 315 37275 39280
12B Feb 104 18858 39280
13A Aug 165 18363 19640
13B Feb 99 17264 19640
13C Feb 93 18228 19640
14A Feb 174 34589 39280
14B Oct 129 18229 19640
15A Feb 83 15960 19640
15B Dec 72 5838 19640
15C Feb 110 19121 19640
16A Dec 154 21988 39280
16B Feb 95 18175 19640
17A Feb 100 18768 19640
17B Feb 97 17662 19640
17C Feb 96 18392 19640
18A Dec 205 27501 39280
18B Feb 96 17997 19640
19A Feb 102 18680 19640
19B Sep 103 16027 19640
19C Jun 201 34132 39280
20A Feb 234 37350 39280
20B --- --- ------ ------
21A Sep 16 2127 19640
21B Sep 56 8491 19640
21C Sep 59 7106 19640
22A Feb 190 36611 39280
22B Aug 58 7820 19640
23A Feb 194 37085 39280
23B Oct 68 9512 19640
24A Feb 105 18200 19640
24B Feb 96 18475 19640
24C Feb 97 18600 19640
25A Feb 196 37630 39280
25B Feb 109 18383 19640
26A Feb 101 18577 19640
26B Feb 105 18260 19640
26C Feb 203 38340 39280
27A Feb 186 36913 39280
27B Feb 99 18115 19640
28A Feb 99 17651 19640
28B Feb 93 18049 19640
28C Feb 95 17564 19640
29A Feb 179 34771 39280
29B Feb 98 18448 19640
30A Feb 194 37826 39280
30B Feb 96 18036 19640
31A Apr 48 6218 19640
31B Feb 57 10730 19640
31C Feb 67 11667 19640
32A Aug 154 21110 39280
32B Jun 4 800 19640
33A Jun 22 3610 19640
33B Jun 6 865 19640
33C Feb 179 35009 39280
34A Feb 171 32322 39280
34B Feb 29 5385 19640
35A Feb 8 1490 19640
35B Feb 11 1867 19640
35C Jun 1 350 19640
36A Feb 159 31792 39280
36B --- --- ------ ------
37A Feb 118 23360 39280
37B --- --- ------ ------
38A --- --- ------ ------
38B --- --- ------ ------
38C --- --- ------ ------
39A Feb 177 31578 39280
39B --- --- ------ ------
40A --- --- ------ ------
40B --- --- ------ ------
40C --- --- ------ ------
82A Mar 193 28678 34975
82B Feb 176 31792 34975
82C Jun 201 28651 34975
87A Feb 173 32230 34975
87B Feb 170 30945 34975
87C Feb 89 16526 19640
88A Feb 173 31061 34975
88B Feb 164 29695 34975
88C Feb 106 17319 19640
89A Feb 137 24699 34975
89B --- --- ------ ------
89C --- --- ------ ------

 

[wdrl]

I've been going through all the BLT contracts on the OCC web site. I'm sure I missed some, entered some wrong information, but I also found a few contracts that were not entered correctly by the OCC.

Wow, Dizfan, you have done a LOT of work gathering this information! I've looked at only a handful of Units, such as my own, and its sometimes tedious to go through the OCC records. Its almost fun to run across records that were incorrectly input at OCC. Just today, I found several Marriott timeshare contracts that were mislabeled as DVD contracts.

I'm still amazed at how heavily skewed the UYs are toward February. I keep thinking that Disney will begin emphasizing another UY month, but it is still selling a lot of February contracts. I wonder if other resorts are heavily skewed to one UY month.

Thanks for the post!

 

[lark]

I'm still amazed at how heavily skewed the UYs are toward February. I keep thinking that Disney will begin emphasizing another UY month, but it is still selling a lot of February contracts. I wonder if other resorts are heavily skewed to one UY month.

It is rather amazing. I read a while back on these boards that Disney "must" sell an equal number of points in each use year. I think it's safe to conclude from the data on BLT that this is plainly misinformation, at least for BLT. Even if they didn't sell another single February contract, it's already into the 20 percent range of the total points.

I would think this must mean one of three things: (1) there is very heavy demand for February use years, (2) February is the default use year if the purchaser doesn't specify, or (3) at some period, disney was compelling people to puchase February.

I haven't heard anyone claim number 3 to be the case, but who knows? As to demand, I could see where February would be a decent use year -- it requires you to make your banking decision once summer is over, but also is good for spring break planners. Still, I can't see it being more popular than, say, June, by many multiples. So my hunch is that it must be the use year that you end up with if you don't request a particular use year.

As a practical matter, that doesn't surprise me, particularly if disney thinks sales will continue to be brisk for the rest of 2009. First, for those that buy in 2009, getting a February use year means they will get their second alotment of points -- 2010 points -- as soon as possible, since February is the first use year of the calendar year. Also, starting really soon, I bet disney will not really be selling too much February use year to new purchasers, because it compels them to make a pretty quick decision whether to bank their 2009 points, so I would think that February use year points are close to "sold out," at least until next year. I guess what's most surprising about the data is that it tends to suggest the vast bulk of DVC purchasers do not demand a particular use year, such that a default can have these kind of stats.

 

[mousescrapper]

I am such a newbie DVC member so can't really get into all the number stuff...

but just wanted to chime in on two points....

one we bought into DVC the very end of March 09 and our use year is February.

two...someone was questioning why Disney would offer so many 2BR D vs the lock-offs. Personally this is why we bought into DVC.

If Disney wants more families to buy, 2 BR D is a huge incentive and buying perk. We are a family of 6 and I don't want to buy in and still have "2-rooms" I can pay that money and stay at CBR then....kwim.

Having 1 big space that I don't need to worry my kids could get out or accidently into the 2nd kitchen area...is a reassurance.

Yes there will be times over our 50 yrs we'll book a studio or a 1BR, but for the most part it will always be 2BR D as our ressie request...

hope that makes some sense from a busy mom of 4.

 

[wdrl]

I had some fun playing with the numbers trying to answer the question: How many points would it take to book all the rooms in BLT for a year?

In making the calculations, I made the following assumptions in my first pass through the data:

I used the 2010 Points Chart for BLT

I used 365 days from 1/1/2010 to 12/31/2010

I assumed there were the following room configurations:
Grand Villas-6 MK, 8 LV
2-bedrooms 38 MK, 70 LV, 9 S
1-bedrooms 20 MK, 112 LV, 18 S (these villas represent the L/O 2-BR)
Studios 20 MK, 112 LV, 18 S (these villas represent the L/O 2-BR)

I then did a second pass of the numbers in which I counted each L/O 2-BR as a 2-bedroom villa.

I then reduced the total points by 1/52 (1.923%). This is necessary because each villa has only 51 use weeks in a year. The 52nd use week is set aside for maintenance, down time, etc.

In arriving at the number of villas per view, I assumed that the villas on the 1st and 2nd floors will be Standard views, that the villas in the center section of the BLT crescent beginning on the 3rd floor and facing the MK will be MK views, and that all the remaining villas will be LV. Note: I came up with a mix of dedicated vs. L/O villas of 117/150. TSMIII indicates that the mix should be 120/147. Until Phases 91 and 92 are declared, we won't know for sure how DVD will configure the top floor.

In the first pass (with L/O 2-BRs counting as studios and 1-bedrooms), I calculated a grand total of 6,193,176 points, which is reduced to 6,074,076 points to account for the 51 use weeks.

In the second pass (with L/O 2-BRs counting as 2-bedroom villas), I calculated a grand total of 5,741,676 points, which is reduced to 5,631,259 points to account for the 51 use weeks.

By comparison, an analysis of the BLT Declarations and deed contracts on the OCC website would indicate DVD has 5,825,540 points to sell (see my prior post #58).

What does all this mean? Well, if you have read this far in the post, then you are probably a math geek. Its just my way of trying to understand a little more about how DVD runs a resort. I assume that DVD can't sell more points than can occupy the resort for one calendar year. Therefore, either DVD has to compute occupancy based on a mix of studios and 1-BRs, as well as 2-BRs and GVs, or the 5.8 million point total I've computed based on recorded deeds is in error.

As BLT gets closer to being sold out, I can look at the numbers and see how close any of these estimates are to the final numbers.

I wonder if I should change by name from wdrl to wtmtomh (way too much time on my hands)???

 

[dismedvc]

I have always wondered how Disney deals with the possibility that if all the lock off 2 BR are booked as 2 BR, the total number of points needed to book every room in the resort for the entire year, would be lower that if some of those LO are reserved as 1 BR and studios. Maybe that is why Disney typically holds 2-4% of the points themselves. I think that is in addition to the 1/52 reduction you factored in, but I am not sure.

Thanks for the info, sincerely, AWTMTOMH (the first A is for also)

 

[DVCGeek]

As BLT gets closer to being sold out, I can look at the numbers and see how close any of these estimates are to the final numbers.

I wonder if I should change by name from wdrl to wtmtomh (way too much time on my hands)???

I thought Disney held back 2-3% of the rooms worth of pointsfor maintenance windows, NOT a full Use Week at each one. I love all your math though, interesting read!

 

[DVCGeek]

If Disney wants more families to buy, 2 BR D is a huge incentive and buying perk. We are a family of 6 and I don't want to buy in and still have "2-rooms" I can pay that money and stay at CBR then....kwim.

Having 1 big space that I don't need to worry my kids could get out or accidently into the 2nd kitchen area...is a reassurance.

Yes there will be times over our 50 yrs we'll book a studio or a 1BR, but for the most part it will always be 2BR D as our ressie request...

hope that makes some sense from a busy mom of 4.

That makes total sense and I never looked at it from that perspective! I guess it is all about target audience. I always saw the L/O's as better due to the increased flexibility, but I guess the dedicateds do have an important place. Hopefully there will still be enough studios around (especially at VGC!) for me to get my 11 month ressies. That's all I ask! Thanks for sharing.

 

[dismedvc]

That makes total sense and I never looked at it from that perspective! I guess it is all about target audience. I always saw the L/O's as better due to the increased flexibility, but I guess the dedicateds do have an important place. Hopefully there will still be enough studios around (especially at VGC!) for me to get my 11 month ressies. That's all I ask! Thanks for sharing.

Our original home resort is BWV which does not have any dedicated 2BR. However, I have called three times at the 7 month mark to get a 2 BR at BCV for my sister so her kids can go to SAB, and although I have always been able to get a 2 BR at BCV at the 7 month window, no dedicated 2 BR have ever been available, only a lock-off 2 BR. It therefore seems possible that lots of members feel like mousescrapper and prefer the dedicated, although it would be dangerous to draw a conclusion from a sample of three.

HOWEVER, it might not be a preference for dedicated 2 BR. Another reason that only lock-offs are available at 7 months is that a previous post indicated BCV has 78 dedicated and 74 lock-off 2 BR's, but when a member requests a 2 BR, the dedicated are assigned first, unless a lock off is specifically requested, so they can keep the lock offs for people who want a 1 BR or a studio. Only after they run out of dedicated do they start using the lock offs for members who request a 2 BR.

After re-reading the above I guess it really doesn't come to a conclusion. I thought about just deleting it, but maybe someone will find it useful.

 

[lark]

By comparison, an analysis of the BLT Declarations and deed contracts on the OCC website would indicate DVD has 5,825,540 points to sell (see my prior post #58).

I think it's worth noting that there is an assumption embedded here. You're assuming that every phase will continue to have exactly the same number of points sold. That's probably a legitimate assumption, but not necessarily.

I expect that the last phase sold might not have exactly the number you would expect that came before it. I mean, it's reasonable to assume they took the total amount of points and then apportioned them equally among the units. Or, there may be some other reason the points per unit are as they are, and they will get to the final number they hope to get to by tweaking the last sold phase. (Just to give an example, if you assume they want to sell exactly 5.8 million points, perhaps the last unit would only sell 13,740 points instead of 39,280. Unlikely, but perhaps.

My hunch, though, on all this is that there is a set number of 1 BRs and studios that disney has already determined it will not allow to be reserved as combined 2 BRs. And, I'll be further, that you're going to be able to figure out exactly how many those are when the final data is compiled!

 

[TSMIII]

Our original home resort is BWV which does not have any dedicated 2BR. However, I have called three times at the 7 month mark to get a 2 BR at BCV for my sister so her kids can go to SAB, and although I have always been able to get a 2 BR at BCV at the 7 month window, no dedicated 2 BR have ever been available, only a lock-off 2 BR. It therefore seems possible that lots of members feel like mousescrapper and prefer the dedicated, although it would be dangerous to draw a conclusion from a sample of three.

HOWEVER, it might not be a preference for dedicated 2 BR. Another reason that only lock-offs are available at 7 months is that a previous post indicated BCV has 78 dedicated and 74 lock-off 2 BR's, but when a member requests a 2 BR, the dedicated are assigned first, unless a lock off is specifically requested, so they can keep the lock offs for people who want a 1 BR or a studio. Only after they run out of dedicated do they start using the lock offs for members who request a 2 BR.
After re-reading the above I guess it really doesn't come to a conclusion. I thought about just deleting it, but maybe someone will find it useful.

This makes perfect sense and I'd venture a guess that the same logic is applied at those resorts that have dedicated Studios and 1BRs. By assigning the Dedicated villas first, the Lockoffs are left unassigned longer, thus preserving some flexibility for filling reservation requests as the resort continues to fill up. Only once one or more categories are completely booked do members run into availability problems.

 

[wdrl]

Two more units have started appearing on BLT contracts being recorded on the Orange County Comptroller's website. These units, 34b and 35a, are February UY.

UPDATE 8/16/2009 - Three more units have appeared on recorded deeds on the OCC website. Only one (35b) has a February UY. The others are 33b (October) and 35c(June).

UPDATE 8/23/2009 - Three more Units have appeared on recorded deeds on the OCC website. All three (36b, 37b, and 40C) have a February UY.

UPDATE 9/11/2009 - DVD declared Phases 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, and 46 for the DVC. These Phases have a total of 14 Units and 353,520 points. At the time of this new Declaration, there were 9 Units from prior Declarations that had yet to have deeds recorded on the OCC website.

 

[lark]

Does the particular phase that's been declared or sold have any significance?

I've read some stuff on this board that suggests a room category can go into dvc inventory only when a corresponding phase with that room category is declared/sold.

Is that true? For example, say that right now, the sold phases at BLT contain 65 lockoffs. Does this mean that only 65 1 BRs and 65 studios are available for DVC reservations? Or can DVC allow reservations in any combination of units, so long as the overall points correspond to the number of points sold?

 

[dismedvc]

Similar to the question asked by lark above: Does a declared unit have to be a MK view in order for a MK view to be added to DVC inventory?