WDW Should Not Open in July. Discuss.

[kdonnel]

I am at Ft Wilderness now. Disney is doing a wonderful job of keeping everyone safe. Everyone wearing their masks for the stores and take out food. If you are in a golf cart everyone has a mask on. You do not need a mask sitting at your campground. I would not be afraid to go to the parks when they open.

Great to hear!

 

[fbarker]

Or that some have looked at the CDC guidance and determined that for their age and health, Covied-19 is not something that should be feared, respected, but not feared.

and again its important not to miss the point that your actions don't just effect you but could effect others who may be in a category that is considered high risk. We are all responsible for how our actions impact others and we should take that seriously with Covid 19

 

[fbarker]

Yup. They are both already dead!

But if you mean my wife's parents, the CDC says they have a case fatality ratio of 1.3% or a 98.7% chance of survival.

Odds still seem good for doubling my money!

And if you were only responsible for yourself than your responses would not be too scary. But it appears you are responsible to two kids, a wife, and in-laws and your responses then become very scary. But we are not going to change you and it also appear that you are having fun taking such a contrarian role.

 

[Minnesota!]

We have no desire to go. Honestly, we went in December and I was so UNDER-whelmed by the stale-ness of it all, we had not planned on going back for a few years, at least. Now, living in this pandemic, I have come to realize just how little I need to actually survive happily. And, themeparks are definitely one of those things I have realized as not needed for my enjoyment. Hell, Target fell by the wayside, too.

This has definitely shifted my mindset on how simple life should be, and just how little I can live on to make that happen.

I think opening might be delayed...at least until trending down begins again.

Also, can someone check my numbers - does Canada really have double the mortality rate of the USA?

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

We have no desire to go. Honestly, we went in December and I was so UNDER-whelmed by the stale-ness of it all, we had not planned on going back for a few years, at least. Now, living in this pandemic, I have come to realize just how little I need to actually survive happily. And, themeparks are definitely one of those things I have realized as not needed for my enjoyment. Hell, Target fell by the wayside, too.

This has definitely shifted my mindset on how simple life should be, and just how little I can live on to make that happen.

I think opening might be delayed...at least until trending down begins again.

Also, can someone check my numbers - does Canada really have double the mortality rate of the USA?

If I'm doing the math right it appears Canada's mortality rate from Covid is 8.25% (8,663 deaths in a 105,025 cases). In the US it's 4.57% (132,081 deaths in 2,890,298 cases). All stats came from Worldmeter.

 

[Chrissy-Mickey]

This virus isn't going anywhere for a while. We'll keep following the rules and while going out and having fun!

 

[disneychrista]

'

The CDC says the case fatality ratio for my age group is .05%.

Which would be great if DEATH was the ONLY negative outcome from contracting the virus.

 

[3threebabies]

Also, can someone check my numbers - does Canada really have double the mortality rate of the USA?

Canada‘s LTC facilities have been hit very hard. Testing criteria and age stratification can significantly affect death rates.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Canada‘s LTC facilities have been hit very hard. Testing criteria and age stratification can significantly affect death rates.

I didn't know about Canada specifically, but that is happening a lot here too (obviously not all cases). It's what caused Washington's spike early on. It's what is happening where I live now. Combined with numbers from San Quentin, the Bay Area suddenly looks pretty bad.

It's really sad

 

[SaintsManiac]

'


Which would be great if DEATH was the ONLY negative outcome from contracting the virus.

Many people do not grasp this concept.

 

[bavaria]

If I'm doing the math right it appears Canada's mortality rate from Covid is 8.25% (8,663 deaths in a 105,025 cases). In the US it's 4.57% (132,081 deaths in 2,890,298 cases). All stats came from Worldmeter.

I tend to go by deaths per million. That means
- UK 650/million
- US 399/million
- Canada 230/million
- Germany 108/million

The problem though is that there are so many variables to consider

- what point of the pandemic is each country experiencing? Asia was first, then Europe, now the Americas so it may not be comparable to use numbers at a fixed date. On Reddit a UK poster was tracking deaths by major country in Europe from the point of the first death in that country. That way we could see where the UK was on their 'day 32' vs France on their day 32, Italy, Germany etc and see if their trends were similar to other countries

- for large countries with diverse population density like the US and Canada, the stats may be skewed by a few regions (like for Canada, Ontario and Quebec make the rest of the country look bad) BC has something like 34/million I believe, vs 184/million for Ontario (my math may be off, but you can see that Ontario skews the stats dramatically as most areas are far lower)

- who is dying? In Canada I read 80 percent were in care homes, at an average age higher than the normal mortality age. Similarly in Germany. I'm not celebrating that, just stating that the figures don't reflect the nature of the pandemic and who is getting sick and dying, vs getting sick and recovering. I'd really like to find a site which includes average age of deaths as a factor, to get a better comparison of figures

- who is getting sick? As Jamie points out, in many places it is prisons, food processing plants, dormitory staff housing etc which accounts for a majority of cases. One area of Germany is currently dealing with a large spike in cases from a food production facility, but those people may not be seeing symptoms, and the death rate will be very low most likely if there are indeed any deaths from that outbreak. Because they live together and don't get out in the community much, community spread may be low

- what is/was the state of the 'lockdown' and how much did it impact the economy? New Zealand had 4 deaths/million, while Vietnam had 0 deaths/million. The Vietnamese economy is still expected to be robust this year, and the domestic travel is already in full swing thanks to some rebates, as well as low foreign visitors in a normal year. So they are probably better off than New Zealand overall, if one looks at 'quality of life' during the last quarter, and economic forecasts for the coming months

 

[Minnesota!]

Canada‘s LTC facilities have been hit very hard. Testing criteria and age stratification can significantly affect death rates.

I didn't know about Canada specifically, but that is happening a lot here too (obviously not all cases). It's what caused Washington's spike early on. It's what is happening where I live now. Combined with numbers from San Quentin, the Bay Area suddenly looks pretty bad.

It's really sad

That's what is happening in MN, too. Over 80% of the deaths are LTC.

 

[SaintsManiac]

Just read this thread, too.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1279125273699631105

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

I tend to go by deaths per million. That means
- UK 650/million
- US 399/million
- Canada 230/million
- Germany 108/million

The problem though is that there are so many variables to consider

- what point of the pandemic is each country experiencing? Asia was first, then Europe, now the Americas so it may not be comparable to use numbers at a fixed date. On Reddit a UK poster was tracking deaths by major country in Europe from the point of the first death in that country. That way we could see where the UK was on their 'day 32' vs France on their day 32, Italy, Germany etc and see if their trends were similar to other countries

- for large countries with diverse population density like the US and Canada, the stats may be skewed by a few regions (like for Canada, Ontario and Quebec make the rest of the country look bad) BC has something like 34/million I believe, vs 184/million for Ontario (my math may be off, but you can see that Ontario skews the stats dramatically as most areas are far lower)

- who is dying? In Canada I read 80 percent were in care homes, at an average age higher than the normal mortality age. Similarly in Germany. I'm not celebrating that, just stating that the figures don't reflect the nature of the pandemic and who is getting sick and dying, vs getting sick and recovering. I'd really like to find a site which includes average age of deaths as a factor, to get a better comparison of figures

- who is getting sick? As Jamie points out, in many places it is prisons, food processing plants, dormitory staff housing etc which accounts for a majority of cases. One area of Germany is currently dealing with a large spike in cases from a food production facility, but those people may not be seeing symptoms, and the death rate will be very low most likely if there are indeed any deaths from that outbreak. Because they live together and don't get out in the community much, community spread may be low

- what is/was the state of the 'lockdown' and how much did it impact the economy? New Zealand had 4 deaths/million, while Vietnam had 0 deaths/million. The Vietnamese economy is still expected to be robust this year, and the domestic travel is already in full swing thanks to some rebates, as well as low foreign visitors in a normal year. So they are probably better off than New Zealand overall, if one looks at 'quality of life' during the last quarter, and economic forecasts for the coming months

I completely agree with you. I was answering the question posed by another poster about mortality rate. But there really is so much behind those numbers that without really knowing all the information, it's really hard to really compare of them. Just using my own state for example - over half the cases for the entire state come from Los Angeles County. Now that county is huge and heavily populated, but it really skews the overall number for the state so when people talk about California, is it really for the entire state or LA County?

On that, as I mentioned, the numbers at San Quentin skew everything for the surrounding area. They currently have 1,345 positives, doubling the count for the county the prison sits in. As of Wed 8 were in the ICU in that county, taking 1/3 of the beds and leaving 1 available. 59 have been transferred to Bay Area Hospitals, as of yesterday. While my county health director hasn't released much on two newest deaths, the timeline and ages add up with information from SQ about their latest deaths. Now obviously this all matters either way because beds taken are beds taken, but the context of some of our numbers does change. As of now, the 11 deaths in my county are all from skilled nursing/LTC, the Diamond Princess and what I believe to be two from SQ (although the last is only MY assumption, nothing official). 9 of the 11 are over the age of 65, all with underlying health conditions (the newest two being between 50-64).

All of that is to say that sometimes (not always) there is more to the numbers being reported and some further investigation needs to be done before freaking out.

 

[greg9x]

So what if you already live in a hot spot high spread area?

Then I would hope your area is implementing measures to reduce transmission, and people are taking extra precautions. But I don't think that is a valid reason to say traveling to another hot spot is ok just because you in one now... again the act of traveling increases exposure, and your more likely to be a spreader if coming from a hot spot.

 

[Jrb1979]

What ever happened to supporting your local economy this summer?

 

[old lady]

It is like everything else. It is about money and the economy.

 

[sam_gordon]

All of that is to say that sometimes (not always) there is more to the numbers being reported and some further investigation needs to be done before freaking out.

THIS!

 

[Jrb1979]

THIS!

Positive percentage is a big deal. Its not good that it's high. My issue through this whole thing is the amount of people looking for any way to make the numbers look good.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

What ever happened to supporting your local economy this summer?

What makes you think people aren't?