Crowd Outlook

[fatmanatee]

Forgive me if I'm mistaken, but this is all new to me.
It appears that the 2015-2019 MK numbers are in the 20M range.
So, we're looking at a 7-8K less guests per day compared to 6 years ago?

Yep, by design.

 

[BayTower2010]

The numbers are very interesting. All four WDW had an increase in attendance, yes very small increase but still an increase. Whereas Universal Florida had a decrease. So for many on these forums with the Universal is over taking Disney, not so fast. Cannot wait for the rationalization crowd to down play the hard numbers. My family (ages 70 to 8) went to the new Universal Park and the collective review was a collective yawn--nice but not great (or even all that good). And for the anger at Disney costs, quite frankly Universal was more expensive.

 

[J-Dog]

The numbers are very interesting. All four WDW had an increase in attendance, yes very small increase but still an increase. Whereas Universal Florida had a decrease. So for many on these forums with the Universal is over taking Disney, not so fast. Cannot wait for the rationalization crowd to down play the hard numbers. My family (ages 70 to 8) went to the new Universal Park and the collective review was a collective yawn--nice but not great (or even all that good). And for the anger at Disney costs, quite frankly Universal was more expensive.

I agree. The knee-jerk reactionary Facebook (or even Dis boards) comment for someone who is irritated at Disney/Disney's cost/Disney's "pricing out the middle class"/etc., is to say "I'm done with Disney! I'm going to Univeral from now on." Sometimes they will even add "and everyone I know is doing the same thing!"

For 2024-25 anyway, this comment seems to not be holding up to the data.

 

[NickC]

Higher crowds don't necessarily mean higher profits. You still make $800 whether you charge 100 people $8 each, or 80 people $10 each. However, your cost for maintenance, staffing, etc. will be less without those extra 20 guests. The 80 people who still pay will have a better experience, and are more likely to return or introduce new guests to the parks.

Well, I was just talking about the crowd outlook--how crowded will it be? But, this is an interesting point, because in order to attract more return guests and increase the value, even with higher prices, it should "feel" less crowded. It didn't notice significantly less congestion the last few years we've been. I don't know how everyone else has felt. We'll be there next month, so we'll see how it goes this time around.

 

[Minnie1222]

Well, I was just talking about the crowd outlook--how crowded will it be? But, this is an interesting point, because in order to attract more return guests and increase the value, even with higher prices, it should "feel" less crowded. It didn't notice significantly less congestion the last few years we've been. I don't know how everyone else has felt. We'll be there next month, so we'll see how it goes this time around.

Oh, I thought you were questioning why attendance wasn't as high as pre-Covid. My mistake!

In terms of congestion, it definitely feels less congested in the lightning lanes. It's also easier to get ADR, although I believe this has to do with their new system. These two changes are good enough to keep us returning, for now.

 

[fatmanatee]

Waiting for EU doesn’t explain away a near 10% drop for Hollywood. Comcast has still reported shortfalls for attendance this year in their earnings reports.

Yeah I thought that was interesting, although they had also experienced a 15 percent increase the prior year. That was the year SNW opened, they also had been catching up from covid closures. Same report in 2019 reported 9.1 mil visitors, so they’re slightly down from that.

 

[NickC]

Oh, I thought you were questioning why attendance wasn't as high as pre-Covid. My mistake!

In terms of congestion, it definitely feels less congested in the lightning lanes. It's also easier to get ADR, although I believe this has to do with their new system. These two changes are good enough to keep us returning, for now.

Honestly, I'm not sure what I'm saying most of the time. It was something that popped in my head after reading the year over year report, so I went back further to see more historic data. But, I'm not familiar with the numbers, so I wanted to make sure I got it right before I came to any conclusions.
Sometimes it's hard to gauge crowd levels because everything will be going great and then, BOOM, we're at Epcot during a festival on the weekend and "man, WDW is always way too crowded"---even though it may not be.
Yes, ADRs have been easier to get, which is amazing. LLs seem to be working well. Though, I do have some criticism about the lack of planning for 'sections' of the park ...too much criss-crossing based on availability, but I suppose that's a whole different thread.
We're at the point where our kids will be going off to college in the next 2 years. So, we've really been thinking about the future of our WDW trips. It was certainly an era. Hopefully college break schedules and the kid's willingness will all line up and we can continue our annual trips. But, there are so many factors to consider. Crowds being one of them.
I've never complained about pricing. I don't like the increases, but I've never complained. I look at value more than cost. Now, I have complained about some of the changes and WHERE the investments are going in the park. So, that goes more to the 'value' side (or lack of value side) of the equation. I'll keep an eye on the crowds this trip and try to analyze it honestly.

 

[Jrb1979]

The bigger story is that Cedar Point that's really only operates 5 months a year, they still have almost 4 million guests. Even Dollywood and Hershey cracked the 3 million guest mark.

I know this is a Disney board but for 3 parks that many here look down on, it's says a lot they manage 3 million or more guests in such a short season

 

[Bibbidi_Boo]

Good question! With the discounts, I’m thinking crowds will be a bit closer to pre-pandemic levels. People are definitely starting to go back in full force, but maybe not as crazy as before. I’d guess something in between

IMO, this year will be less crowded than last year. We go in a month for a weekend and I was looking at dining and almost everything was bookable when in the past a month out so much would be gone. I was shocked.

 

[BayTower2010]

IMO, this year will be less crowded than last year. We go in a month for a weekend and I was looking at dining and almost everything was bookable when in the past a month out so much would be gone. I was shocked.

I was reading a Disney Podcaster who was of the opinion that this year could be a big boom. The projection is that some of the biggest tax refunds in history will take place this year, leaving a lot of disposable income. While there are a lot on the low end of the economic scale that are hurting, there are a lot more in the middle class which will benefit. Add in that there are many in the middle class that have not really vacationed since COVID, and we could see big increases in all theme parks (Disney and Universal).

 

[Bibbidi_Boo]

I was reading a Disney Podcaster who was of the opinion that this year could be a big boom. The projection is that some of the biggest tax refunds in history will take place this year, leaving a lot of disposable income. While there are a lot on the low end of the economic scale that are hurting, there are a lot more in the middle class which will benefit. Add in that there are many in the middle class that have not really vacationed since COVID, and we could see big increases in all theme parks (Disney and Universal).

With all the summer discounts at Disney this summer big boom doesn't seem to be what they are planning for. Who knows.

 

[HokieRaven5]

Don’t recall “free” nights and park days offered since the 2008/09/10 timeframe. Not exactly big boom years for a lot of people.

 

[Brian Noble]

Bricker has an interesting take on this. The short version, in two parts: One: It's a replacement for (and not necessarily better than) free dining. Two: It's not that much more of a room discount than some of the other room-only offers right now, which are also not completely out of line with the past few years.

But, that word "free" sure does get people excited!

https://www.disneytouristblog.com/buy-4-get-2-free-disney-world-resort-ticket-discount-summer-2026/

 

[Bibbidi_Boo]

Bricker has an interesting take on this. The short version, in two parts: One: It's a replacement for (and not necessarily better than) free dining. Two: It's not that much more of a room discount than some of the other room-only offers right now, which are also not completely out of line with the past few years.

But, that word "free" sure does get people excited!

https://www.disneytouristblog.com/buy-4-get-2-free-disney-world-resort-ticket-discount-summer-2026/

Played around with numbers and it is a decent deal, it really depends on which hotel you pick.

 

[clarker99]

For Canadians, using the current CDN hotel and ticket deal is better than the ‘get 2 days Free’. Now if only the exchange rate was better.