VGF1 Resale Prices

[Paul Stupin]

I watch VGF constantly.

I bought VGF in the Covid slump in the 150s, so it's hard for me to stomach current pricing. I don't see any way VGF2 opens near RIV pricing. I think it will be sky high and protect my VGF1 pricing. My guess six months ago was 275. That said, I haven't put my money where my mouth is. I saw a 180s I thought seriously about not long ago, but I didn't do it. And, all of that was before the current firesale pricing at Aulani and Boardwalk, which I didn't think would happen.

It's still possible that the lawyers play games between VGF1 and 2. No one has actually seen the documentation. That would be a good thing for VGF1 pricing, maybe?

Generally speaking, if you are looking for studios, I think VGF points are a winner. Even at pricing this high, they are in SAP value, because of how long the contract is. If you want bigger units, I would be looking elsewhere. To buy right now, you have to be at peace with value uncertainty on your points in the short run, depending on how DVC opens pricing. It would be hard for me to stomach a quick drop, because I don't plan on holding long.

Since not a single new DVC resort has opened sky high in comparison to other dvc resort pricing, there also a very good chance VGF2 will be competitively priced, in which case resale pricing will dip.

 

[davidl81]

Since not a single new DVC resort has opened sky high in comparison to other dvc resort pricing, there also a very good chance VGF2 will be competitively priced, in which case resale pricing will dip.

Past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior. DVC has never opened a resort at 20% more than the resort they were currently marketing. They almost always open at the same base price. So for VGF to open at $250-275 would be something DVC has never done in its history (and during a time where direct sales are significantly down). It’s not impossible, but history says it’s unlikely.

 

[Paul Stupin]

dis will have street projections for sales. Real estate like any commodity has a shelf life And is a liability on the books. By that logic they could set each point at $1000 and just wait for the buyer. However the longer it sits the less money dis makes

Basic Economics are in play here governed by supply and demand. Disney will have two resorts selling in wdw plus one in Hawaii. Investors won’t tolerate poor sales. Yes dis will extract as much value they can, but they also want to sell and for each sale that equates in park spend which is sure worth more than a couple extra bucks per point

DVC sales are not broken out from from the Disney Parks Divisions profits when they’re released quarterly. Investors don‘t even know. And they’re far more concerned with the macro picture of the company’s health as a whole, and maintaining subscriber growth at Disney +.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior. DVC has never opened a resort at 20% more than the resort they were currently marketing. They almost always open at the same base price. So for VGF to open at $250-275 would be something DVC has never done in its history (and during a time where direct sales are significantly down). It’s not impossible, but history says it’s unlikely.

Looking at the actual data, I agree that it’s pretty unlikely.

 

[mort1331]

Past behavior is the best predictor of future behavior. DVC has never opened a resort at 20% more than the resort they were currently marketing. They almost always open at the same base price. So for VGF to open at $250-275 would be something DVC has never done in its history (and during a time where direct sales are significantly down). It’s not impossible, but history says it’s unlikely.

Right,, but correct me if I am wrong,,VGF direct is 255 right now,,not including incentives,,IF you could buy,,but this was last posted price. Now we could also see an increase before the begin selling and that would increase price as well.

 

[DVCsloth]

I think DVC is lowering the value of VGF by doing this all studios. Don't like it, but they must have done their research and determined that this is what is will sell.
Do believe that they will sell it close to Riviera prices. Hopefully the point chart is a little lower than VGF1 and keep some of the pressure off of the Original Villas.
I guess the original post was how much you would pay for VGF resale now? I probably wouldn't buy anything right now until I saw the details of the new VGF2. I'm not a big fan of resale
currently, but I could probably buy some if it was exactly what I was looking for at a good price.

 

[nuhusky123]

Right,, but correct me if I am wrong,,VGF direct is 255 right now,,not including incentives,,IF you could buy,,but this was last posted price. Now we could also see an increase before the begin selling and that would increase price as well.

it was $255 at a sold out resort. Now there will be 2,000,000 new unsold points

what applied before does not apply now. Basic supply and demand. Supply has just increased thereby decreasing pressure on demand. the end result is lower prices

 

[Paul Stupin]

Right,, but correct me if I am wrong,,VGF direct is 255 right now,,not including incentives,,IF you could buy,,but this was last posted price. Now we could also see an increase before the begin selling and that would increase price as well.

No…as posts above mention, the price will be considerably lower.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Shhh! Don't say that on the Aulani thread!

How bout we stay on topic and talk about VGF?

 

[mort1331]

it was $255 at a sold out resort. Now there will be 2,000,000 new unsold points

yes but they wont be lowering the price

what applied before does not apply now. Basic supply and demand. Supply has just increased thereby decreasing pressure on demand. the end result is lower prices

No…as posts above mention, the price will be considerably lower.

I have never seen them lower the price that was selling before. They might start at 255,,but I will be shocked they will lower. Especially since they have VGC at over 300

 

[JETSDAD]

I have never seen them lower the price that was selling before. They might start at 255,,but I will be shocked they will lower. Especially since they have VGC at over 300

They reduced the base price of SSR when they reverted from sold out pricing back to active sales when they added the treehouses (the only other time they've done this sort of thing).

 

[nuhusky123]

I have never seen them lower the price that was selling before. They might start at 255,,but I will be shocked they will lower. Especially since they have VGC at over 300

when was the last time Disney created 2 million new points At a resort

Gfv is no longer sold out. This isn’t about lower price point. Rather setting price point for a new resort

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I have never seen them lower the price that was selling before. They might start at 255,,but I will be shocked they will lower. Especially since they have VGC at over 300

I say at the lowest they start is at the previous $255/pt. and offer incentives. There have been a ton of buybacks of OKW and AKV by Disney. Speculation is they are trying to drive up the direct price closer to the $200/pt. If Disney’s goal is to drive up the lower priced resorts, it’s got to be in preparation for VGF2 and the new DL Tower.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Man there are going to be a lot of “very surprised” and “shocked” people no matter what happens. Isn’t there already a separate thread for debating whether it will be $260 or $201?

 

[DVCPAT]

Man there are going to be a lot of “very surprised” and “shocked” people no matter what happens. Isn’t there already a separate thread for debating whether it will be $260 or $201?

I agree.. I’ve never been surprised by Disney lowering prices on anything. They tend to surprise on the upside. It’s easy to see VGF contracts selling on the resale market for $190-$210. Disney will not leave any money on the table for a resort you can walk to the MK

 

[Paul Stupin]

I agree.. I’ve never been surprised by Disney lowering prices on anything. They tend to surprise on the upside. It’s easy to see VGF contracts selling on the resale market for $190-$210. Disney will not leave any money on the table for a resort you can walk to the MK

Of course they won’t leave any money on the table, but they won‘t overprice it to the point where value oriented studio buyers won’t buy it either. Again, that $255 pp was for a sold out resort where points were scarce. They won’t be scarce anymore.
But Disney could raise the price another way, by raising the minimum buy in for new DVC members to 175 points.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Of course they won’t leave any money on the table, but they won‘t overprice it to the point where value oriented studio buyers won’t buy it either. Again, that $255 pp was for a sold out resort where points were scarce. They won’t be scarce anymore.
But Disney could raise the price another way, by raising the minimum buy in for new DVC members to 175 points.

Or raising the points chart, on a tiered level.

 

[mort1331]

Or raising the points chart, on a tiered level.

I agree, but from what little Inknow they cant raise the point per night on the same cat without lowering somewhere else. But they can make a new cat, and set whatever poiny total they want. This could be studio light, but almost be same points as reg studios.

 

[DVCPAT]

Of course they won’t leave any money on the table, but they won‘t overprice it to the point where value oriented studio buyers won’t buy it either. Again, that $255 pp was for a sold out resort where points were scarce. They won’t be scarce anymore.
But Disney could raise the price another way, by raising the minimum buy in for new DVC members to 175 points.

Does Disney publish the amount of points available for sale from internal and resale inventories?

 

[Sandisw]

Does Disney publish the amount of points available for sale from internal and resale inventories?

You can figure out something like RIV based on what has been declared vs total at the resort.

But for others, no. That is not make public.