VGF1 Resale Prices

[Paul Stupin]

While I think the “sky is falling” is a little over board on this board (and frankly it’s almost always overboard on any post lol), this will make 1-2BRs harder to book at VGF since by the fact that they are adding a significant amount of points to the system, but only adding studios. The only way 1-2BRs don’t get harder to book is if every single new point sold is just used for studios, which will not be the case. Ultimately the point chart for the 1-2BRs at VGF will still keep the demand down and you will still be able to book those within the 11 month window, but I doubt there will be much open at 7 months etc.
As for points needed for the new studios I think they will be virtually identical to the current studios. Most likely two room categories that match up with the current lake/standard view point charts. Very similar to Jambo and Kadani. Maybe they throw some club level rooms to VGF2, but that’s just a wild guess.

All good points! What do you think the opening price of VGF2 will be?

 

[davidl81]

All good points! What do you think the opening price of VGF2 will be?

I think the base price will be whatever RIV base price is at the time but with less incentives. Maybe $5-$10 more in base to RIV at most, but even that would be something that DVC does not normally do. I do expect to see a RIV base increase though before VGF2 opens, and also an incentive increase to keep the RIV net prices the same as they are now. Direct sales are low right now for various reason and opening a resort with a huge price increase does not seem like it would be a successful strategy. I also think it does not make sense to price VGF2 high just to make RIV look “cheap”. RIV is marketed as an upscale resort for the Epcot area. So if you price VGF much higher than RIV then it is hard to still say RIV is a premium product as your own pricing would be saying that it is inferior to VGF.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

The only way 1-2BRs don’t get harder to book is if every single new point sold is just used for studios, which will not be the case.

This is obviously factual, but I think the question isn’t whether it will be harder, but rather if it will still be easy at 10-11 months. If it’s suddenly hard at 8 months but not an issue if you book on day one, is that really a problem?

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

And by the way I think the answer is we have no way of really knowing right now. Booking patterns indicate there’s not enough studios in VGF today but is 200 the right number to fix that? It’s basically impossible to know with the information at our disposal.

Also I know Disney said it would be all studios and 200 rooms, currently that building has 198 standard hotel rooms, a 1BR suite, and a 2BR suite. One would think that either it will keep the 2 suites or have 203 studios. I guess we’ll see.

 

[wilkydelts]

Will the new section be available to rent once selling starts or do a certain amount of points have to be sold first?

 

[Paul Stupin]

This is obviously factual, but I think the question isn’t whether it will be harder, but rather if it will still be easy at 10-11 months. If it’s suddenly hard at 8 months but not an issue if you book on day one, is that really a problem?

The point charts for 1-2 bedrooms are so high, it’s hard to imagine that they’d all be snapped up at 11 months. At least I hope not! My guess is the 7 month availability might diminish.

 

[hcortesis]

Maybe they throw some club level rooms to VGF2, but that’s just a wild guess.

That's also what I would love to see.

 

[Sandisw]

This is obviously factual, but I think the question isn’t whether it will be harder, but rather if it will still be easy at 10-11 months. If it’s suddenly hard at 8 months but not an issue if you book on day one, is that really a problem?

It is for those who are used to being able to get them during the home resort period, not necessarily on day 1 at 11 months. If all of a sudden, everyone is forced to do that, it could create a problem that doesn't currently exist.

Plus, I know I am buying into VGF when it goes on sale again for use in the original building a bulk of the time. So, I think we will see many new buyers like me not buying solely for studios, but buying direct points vs. resale at VGF.

We shall see!

 

[Sandisw]

Will the new section be available to rent once selling starts or do a certain amount of points have to be sold first?

They will declare inventory to be sold. They will then open up all the declared inventory to be booked from both old and new points at whatever date booking begins. And, those new points will also be eligible to book the current VGF building beginning on the date that the new rooms open for occupancy...I think that is how it works...

 

[dd08]

Nah, vgf will be aligned to the recent boardwalk sales and incentives

anyone hoping for higher prices are already vgf owners and in full freak out mode. Disney is going to have a hard enough time selling 2 million points at $200, why would anyone think they go into the $270s. Again comes from current owners of vgf worried about their own investments

I’m a current VGF owner and I hope it’s at the price I paid for before which was $150ish/pt. (I know not happening)

though I don’t look at DVC as an investment but as entertainment

 

[DVCsloth]

Whatever they price it at it won't be cheap! I think they really hit a homerun adding the walkway. We haven't stayed there since they opened the walkway but one thing always disliked about leaving MK and the huge lines to get on the monorail or the boat. It's going to be nice to have the option of walking back. Not a fan of the Studio only VGF2 but will reserve judgement until they announce the details.

 

[Paul Stupin]

It is for those who are used to being able to get them during the home resort period, not necessarily on day 1 at 11 months. If all of a sudden, everyone is forced to do that, it could create a problem that doesn't currently exist.

Plus, I know I am buying into VGF when it goes on sale again for use in the original building a bulk of the time. So, I think we will see many new buyers like me not buying solely for studios, but buying direct points vs. resale at VGF.

We shall see!

That’s me too. I’ll be buying additional points for the one bedrooms in the original building.

 

[kevtlas]

I really couldn't put a price on what I'd pay, but I think it would have to drop below BWV before I'd even consider it. BWV is my favorite resort and I still don't have any points there, so I'd definitely buy those first. So far the 7 month window has worked for us for every resort we've booked at using our SSR/AUL points, so haven't seen any reason to buy at other resorts with higher pp costs.

 

[DVCsloth]

I really couldn't put a price on what I'd pay, but I think it would have to drop below BWV before I'd even consider it. BWV is my favorite resort and I still don't have any points there, so I'd definitely buy those first. So far the 7 month window has worked for us for every resort we've booked at using our SSR/AUL points, so haven't seen any reason to buy at other resorts with higher pp costs.

Seems like a good strategy, but from my experience most of the time the room type and date is not available at my 2 home resorts. VGF and CCV. We used to visit in early December and they were gone way before 7 months, now we visit in September and Studios are gone but you may be able to get 1BR. But with 2 million points being added to VGF I don't think they will be available at 7 months.

 

[DKZB]

That’s me too. I’ll be buying additional points for the one bedrooms in the original building.

I would buy VGF2 also to stay in the bigger accommodations at VGF1 and I guess that’s the point. If in this small sampling there are at least 3 people, those rooms are likely to get harder to book with a larger pool of points but no additional 1br or 2br

 

[SL6827]

I would buy VGF2 also to stay in the bigger accommodations at VGF1 and I guess that’s the point. If in this small sampling there are at least 3 people, those rooms are likely to get harder to book with a larger pool of points but no additional 1br or 2br

Absolutely. No doubt.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I would buy VGF2 also to stay in the bigger accommodations at VGF1 and I guess that’s the point. If in this small sampling there are at least 3 people, those rooms are likely to get harder to book with a larger pool of points but no additional 1br or 2br

Honest question: If, as an educated DVC owner, you were aware that they are adding millions of points and thousands of owners via VGF2 who can now vie for VGF1 reservations at 11 months, with the addition of ZERO new 1BR or 2BR villas, why would you ever think that would increase your chances of getting those larger accommodations?

 

[DKZB]

I'm under no illusion that it will be easier but I think people might underestimate HOW much harder it will get. Personally, I think you have to view VGF as studio/SAP.

Based on that, as compared to SSR as SAP, my view is that lower dues ads 4% to the value and the 10 years longer expiration adds about 30% more based on straight-line depreciation model

With SSR @ $120/pt the VGF1 Value should be approximately $161
With SSR @ $125/pt the VGF1 Value should be approximately $167
With SSR @ $130/pt the VGF1 Value should be approximately $174

I wanted to wait until after the poll ended to post my VGF1 calculations. Very interesting that we collectively ended up in that very range!!

 

[BWV Dreamin]

That’s me too. I’ll be buying additional points for the one bedrooms in the original building.

Is why I bought an extra 60 points last April. I plan on alternating between studios and one bedrooms.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Honest question: If, as an educated DVC owner, you were aware that they are adding millions of points and thousands of owners via VGF2 who can now vie for VGF1 reservations at 11 months, with the addition of ZERO new 1BR or 2BR villas, why would you ever think that would increase your chances of getting those larger accommodations?

The point charts for the one bedrooms, especially the lake view, are monumentally high, so I think the seven month availability will be more affected than the 11 month.