VGF Pricing Headed Up or Down?

[pangyal]

I'm wondering whether the closure of the waiting list will have an impact on VGF resale prices in the coming year. I'd really like to buy there, but I am wanting to maximize the value of course. I'm not sure if I think that the trend is going to go up or down in the next year or so as people dump their VGF mortgages. Any thoughts on whether this is a good time to buy or stay away until next year?

*Full disclosure- I had a contract for an accepted offer already, but the sellers never returned their paperwork, so now I am having sober second thoughts.

 

[Mpadovani2]

My guess would be up in the near term as the wait list is closed and Disney is out of points to sell. It is a small beautiful monorail resort with 1 and 2 bedrooms unlike Poly. My friend just offered $150/pt on a 100 point contract and was outbid. It's interesting we see higher resale prices than direct at VGC although it is a single resort even smaller than VGF, but you never know...

 

[Minniesgal]

I really cannot see any reason why it would go down. It is a small resort with loads of demand. Also a lot of VGF well small add on buyers more so than other resorts so I'm not sure how many massive mortgages there are. VGF is a very very popular resort and I can't see that changing.

The Poly not having 1 or 2 bedroom villas will boost the value of BLT and VGF in my opinion.

I guess of anything might go down it would be the massive Christmas fixed week contracts there is one for sale at the moment for silly money, think it is a 2 bedroom.

If I wanted to buy more VGF now i'd do what i did to get my VGC and jump the minute I see a contract I like. I certainly wouldn't wait in the hope prices would come down because barring a major recession i don't see it.

 

[coastalhh]

I think down. Very close to retail prices right now. We will see.

Prices keep going up because direct prices go up. I really don't see how they can sell VWL for 200 a point when poly is sold out. So with the next DVC I wouldn't expect a huge direct increase like with VGF and Poly.

 

[Sparrow624]

I expect VGF and POLY (when they hit the resale market in full) to drop "IF" DVC offers the Wilderness Lodge expansion as an add on in some way or as a new resort. Many people will view that as a chance at a "cheaper" MK area Villa option. Personally, I think we are as close as we can get to the height of the bubble. Some people are asking crazy prices for some of the 2042 resorts (primarily one resale company...but that is besides the point). There are some BWV contracts out there at $115 per point and some AKV contracts out there in the $90's....Things will slow eventually.

 

[JimMIA]

Down, for several reasons.

1. People who need to finance will probably not even know resale exists and will continue to buy direct for financing...despite the high rates. So they will only buy whatever DVD is selling.
2. Resale buyers tend to be much more savvy than direct purchasers -- not only about pricing, but also about the ability to use points at non-home resorts, banking/borrrowing, and other tools of the trade.
3. Current DVC owners will know better, but new purchasers will perceive value in the things you don't get purchasing resale. To them, the product will appear less valuable that a direct contract and they won't be willing to pay the higher price.
4. If you look at the dues history, you'll see significant increases in annual dues once a resort sells out -- generally on the order of $1 per point within 2 years. The higher dues will tend to influence resale prices downward.

The price will probably have some firmness for a while, but in a couple of years it will be down somewhat.

 

[MountainMouse]

This is largely going to depend on the overall economy but there doesn't appear to be anything on the horizon that would push prices down like a few years ago. In my opinion (which is just a guess), I would say prices for resale have overshot and will have a minor correction in the next year. Direct is going to hold and possibly push up but incentives added to entice buyers.

 

[ziravan]

Depends on what's going on in the economy. China started waging a de facto currency war this week against the U.S. and much of the West.

It's going to savage Brazil in particular.

It's not a war of ambition, but desperation. China used inflated housing and building numbers to prop up its economic bubble and all bubbles pop. It looks like China is going to follow Japan into an outright liquidity trap.

That will leave the dollar strong and King. Except that's not a good thing. Deflation (a strengthening dollar where a dollar is worth more but nobody has any) is always a scarier monster than inflation (everybody has dollars but they don't buy as much).

It looks like there's going to be deflation in the short term. This is why the government has been printing dollars like crazy, to avoid deflation. Those dollars just aren't circulating like they should.

If you multiple 6x2, that's 12, a higher number. 6 is the number of dollars and 2 is his often they circulate. Want more dollars in circulation? Print two more and now 8x2 is 16. Now you printed 2 dollars but there is the equivalent of 4 more dollars changing hands.

But what happens when the circulation rate falls below 1? 6 x 0.8= 4.8. Now print two more dollars and 8 x 0.8 = 6.4. For two more dollars, you get only 1.6 dollars in circulation. Do that at the macro level and the more you print the more printing money has a paradoxical effect on what you want to achieve: a liquidity trap.

China devaluing its currency three days in a row could spark a printing war that tips multiple nations into the trap.

This is why if you're Canadian or British, it's suddenly a lot more expensive to travel to the U.S. This move has been going on for 6-8 months. China has thrown its hands up and waved the white flag on currency. The move to a stronger dollar might become a stampede.

My point is if that happens, dollars will be very hard to come by and spending those precious dollars on timeshares might be increasingly difficult over the next year or two.

You ask if the value is going up in the near term. If the economy stays the same, it's going to keep going sky high. With no waitlist avail, VGF is no longer tied to direct prices and resale could very well go higher.

IF the economy stays the same.

Really, the real question is - will the economy stay the same? If you could guess that correctly, you could make a fortune.

 

[ziravan]

When we paid $84/point for BCV 14 months ago, we debated if we should wait awhile to see if prices go back down (BCV was in the 60s and 70s after the 2008 bubble popped). Maybe if we waited, prices would go back down?

We ultimately decided not to wait.

Monday morning armchair QBing our decision to buy a year plus later? It was a good deal then and a great deal now.

Your mileage may vary.

 

[4 mickey]

My friend just bought a resale at 145$ / per points
She is beyond happy about it
One other friend of ours is still on the lookout for a 150-175 points resale at VGF
Lets hope the rates dont go higher

 

[4 mickey]

Of course it helps she can pay cash and not finance
As a pp said they re is always going to be a market for buying directly disney ( those who finance )
But that being said if you can pay cash resale in my opinion is thw way to go !

 

[ziravan]

Of course it helps she can pay cash and not finance
As a pp said they re is always going to be a market for buying directly disney ( those who finance )
But that being said if you can pay cash resale in my opinion is thw way to go !

Monera Financial no credit check resale financing where property is collateral. Specifically for DVC properties.

You don't need to buy direct to finance.