*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[MrInfinity]

Actually glitter and hairspray can be had at BBB for a mere $55.

Yes but we want the T-Shirt. That makes it all worth it.

 

[DividedSky]

I'll be honest. I have no idea what this is supposed to mean. If you want to equate this to an all you can eat buffet, the person who arrives an hour before the restauant closes is entitled to more food than the person who arrives five minutes before closing time. The late arriver does not get to take a doggy bag of food home.

Nobody is entitled to more food. That is the primary problem I have with this, it seems people that have been going for a while have formed a sense of entitlement.

The person that gets there an hour before will likely have the opportunity to eat more, while paying the same amount as the guy showing up 10 minutes before closing time.

So when the person that was there an hour before thinks he should get to cut in front of the person that just showed up 10 minutes ago doesn’t make any sense at all.

 

[Shaden]

I don't think the post arrives at any conclusions stronger than the "data" suggest. The analysis is hampered by the fact that it relies on Disney's own posted waits, but nothing better is ever going to be available. Anecdotal "actual" wait times wouldn't be enough to draw any better conclusions even if you had 100 people in the parks constantly timing waits. Overall, posted waits are fairly accurate and the fact that the charts use median times instead of average times helps eliminate the outliers or wildly inaccurate wait times.

Otherwise the post isn't titled "The be all end all facts of FP+ effects on standby waits," it just takes a look over about 700,000 wait times over the course of several months.

Attendance is up just under 1.5% year over year but that's unlikely to cause the spikes we're seeing at certain attractions. There were similar gains between 2012 and 2013 and wait times were largely unaffected.

My thread is honoured, great work and analysis.

 

[Owlpost23]

I don't think Disney is interested in people getting to ride more rides with FP+.They've already got your ticket money,and it doesn't seem that they're concerned about someone getting their money's worth.Perhaps this new system will have people saying "to heck with waiting in a SB line"-let's just go get something to eat or hit a shop or two." I think they want to maximize their profits by getting people fed up with getting to do less in the parks,so they'll go elsewhere on property to hopefully spend,spend,spend.It also could be why they're taking it slow with any new attractions.

 

[Mad Hattered]

Nobody is entitled to more food. That is the primary problem I have with this, it seems people that have been going for a while have formed a sense of entitlement.

The person that gets there an hour before will likely have the opportunity to eat more, while paying the same amount as the guy showing up 10 minutes before closing time.

So when the person that was there an hour before thinks he should get to cut in front of the person that just showed up 10 minutes ago doesn’t make any sense at all.

What about the guy who slept until noon and then *****es because they switched from the breakfast to lunch buffet before he got there?

How this all turned into a food fight is beyond me. At least no one has brought up chicken wings yet.

 

[WillAustin]

What about the guy who slept until noon and then *****es because they switched from the breakfast to lunch buffet before he got there?

How this all turned into a food fight is beyond me. At least no one has brought up chicken wings yet.

It's more like telling someone they shouldn't buy the last cake at the bakery just because they were next in line.

Many posters stated the conclussion that the system is either broken or not working as Disney hoped it would.

What I am saying is that the data that Josh posted today does not, at this time, support that conclussion.

I think the WDW survey asking about more possible upcoming changes to the system probably does tend to support that conclusion. Or at least the reasonable conclusion that the current setup is going to be changed further.

 

[Mac4life30]

I don't think Disney is interested in people getting to ride more rides with FP+.They've already got your ticket money,and it doesn't seem that they're concerned about someone getting their money's worth.Perhaps this new system will have people saying "to heck with waiting in a SB line"-let's just go get something to eat or hit a shop or two." I think they want to maximize their profits by getting people fed up with getting to do less in the parks,so they'll go elsewhere on property to hopefully spend,spend,spend.It also could be why they're taking it slow with any new attractions.

but look at the attractions that now have waits that normally wouldn't.

SE 30 min in the evening!
TTA with a wait????
Tiki Birds with a wait?

I think people are waiting and more then ever. Those people are waiting and are not spending $$ while in line.

 

[mom2rtk]

And the spending argument is hard to make. The person who paid for BBB did not pay $50 for beers in Germany and Margarita's in Mexico. No real way to determine, financially, who is more "worthy" of fast passes.

I know this is "out there" and not a very popular philosophy these days.......... but how about "first come, first served"?

I don't think Disney is faulting anyone. We have the choice to do whatever we want during our vacation. Whats rewarding for me might not be for you. The concern is someone who finds it rewarding to spend all day in a park is being negatively impacted by those who walk in at noon.
If you were doing something more rewarding then kudos but now if you want to ride TT you have to wait in line.

I think if things went back to how they were for legacy (meaning that not every ride has FP and you can get as many as you want provided is every two hours or after you use it) we wouldn't have this mess.

Oh, don't get me wrong. I agree.

What about the guy who slept until noon and then *****es because they switched from the breakfast to lunch buffet before he got there?

How this all turned into a food fight is beyond me. At least no one has brought up chicken wings yet.

Yep. It was chicken wings. And when I saw there were only 2 left, I grabbed them for my own kid instead of leaving them for someone else who got there after us.

I seriously couldn't make this stuff up.

 

[Davey Jones II]

A lot of this boils down to the following, and it's not an equation, a stat or a calculation; it's merely common sense.

In the late, lamented old days, you would show your FP to a CM, he/she would eyeball it for a second, and wave you through. Now, you have to line up your MB with the Mickey reader in just the right, precise way, and wait for it to light up with the right color. This can take several seconds, and you may have to try several times. Meanwhile, you're holding up the FP+ line behind you, AND the SB line (whenever it is waiting for the FB+ line to go through).

Now repeat that whole, painful procedure every damn time that someone else comes up to the Mickey reader. The result is slower moving lines and longer wait times.

But, if you still want an equation, here is one for you:

Old fashioned eyeballs > new fangled gizmo.

 

[NavyDad]

I don't think Disney is interested in people getting to ride more rides with FP+.They've already got your ticket money,and it doesn't seem that they're concerned about someone getting their money's worth.Perhaps this new system will have people saying "to heck with waiting in a SB line"-let's just go get something to eat or hit a shop or two." I think they want to maximize their profits by getting people fed up with getting to do less in the parks,so they'll go elsewhere on property to hopefully spend,spend,spend.It also could be why they're taking it slow with any new attractions.

You make a great point!

The goal is for people to spend less time in line for the reason you stated. When they are not in line for a ride they can spend more money.

Someone else mentioned that part of the reasoning behind booking FP ahead of time is that people can spend more time other places spending money but still know that they have a FP for their favorite ride later that day.

Good points

 

[disneyfantotheend]

Yes those who rode standby waited longer.

Problem is that with only 3FP+, we ALL will be "those who waited in standby" more often than we will be "those with FP+". So won't that become an all around longer wait for everyone?

 

[Davey Jones II]

I don't think Disney is interested in people getting to ride more rides with FP+.They've already got your ticket money,and it doesn't seem that they're concerned about someone getting their money's worth.Perhaps this new system will have people saying "to heck with waiting in a SB line"-let's just go get something to eat or hit a shop or two." I think they want to maximize their profits by getting people fed up with getting to do less in the parks,so they'll go elsewhere on property to hopefully spend,spend,spend.It also could be why they're taking it slow with any new attractions.

And after their trip is over, they might say "to heck with Disney, next time we're going to X", and Disney has lost their business forever. Now multiply that effect by the number of people who will be alienated by this crappy new system.

I'm not saying this will destroy Disney. But repeat business and loyalty are important in the theme park business, and longer wait times are anathema to both of those. So yes, I would venture to say that this was a bad investment for the company.

Compare that to the effect of spending $1.5 billion on new attractions. People would be saying "oh, we have to visit when this opens" instead of "we are rethinking our next planned trip" or "we decided not to get an AP/invest in DVC after all".

 

[mom2rtk]

But, if you still want an equation, here is one for you:

Old fashioned eyeballs > new fangled gizmo.

But..... but...... but......... it's NEW FANGLED!

And it's a GIZMO!

Surely that counts for something?

 

[d-r]

it doesn't really have to be as covulated as thinking about "what is fair" and "who thinks who deserves what" the fact of the matter is that they made a system that, while it may work fine when only a few resorts are testing it or when there are low crowds, it doesn't really work when the parks are crowded. It's really that simple. It doesn't work. And it shouldn't be a surprise that people who are paying a lot of money to go to a place that they have really enjoyed in the past find that disappointing, or that people think it was poor planning to spend $1.5 billion on a marketing gimic that negatively impacts the park experience rather than investing in actual attractions that could have positively impacted them.

 

[Davey Jones II]

But..... but...... but......... it's NEW FANGLED!

And it's a GIZMO!

Surely that counts for something?

Yeah, it counts for $1.5 billion down the drain.

 

[NavyDad]

It's more like telling someone they shouldn't buy the last cake at the bakery just because they were next in line.



I think the WDW survey asking about more possible upcoming changes to the system probably does tend to support that conclusion. Or at least the reasonable conclusion that the current setup is going to be changed further.

I fully agree with your last statement. It is a very reasonable conclusion that the current setup is going to be changed further. Two months in they basically just have a system framework in place. They need to work the bugs out of technology and then tweaks to quanity, priority and time ranges should be implemented to make the system better.

However, people who think they will go back to paper machines and everything will be back to the way it was are living in a pipe dream.

Like a PP said, the end game is probably a completely virtual queueing system where you never spend more than 5 minutes in a line. That is much more likely to happen before we see all paper system again IMO.

 

[surferdave]

Old fashioned eyeballs > new fangled gizmo.

Not only that, the Old fashioned eyeballs guy is still standing there, patiently watching the new fangled gizmo.

 

[d-r]

it isn't just standby lines that are longer, fast pass return lines are longer too.

 

[WillAustin]

Like a PP said, the end game is probably a completely virtual queueing system where you never spend more than 5 minutes in a line. That is much more likely to happen before we see all paper system again IMO.

I completely agree with you on that. I'm not sure how successful they'll be moving toward the virtual queue for everything because I don't think it fits for everyone.

 

[Davey Jones II]

it doesn't really have to be as covulated as thinking about "what is fair" and "who thinks who deserves what" the fact of the matter is that they made a system that, while it may work fine when only a few resorts are testing it or when there are low crowds, it doesn't really work when the parks are crowded. It's really that simple. It doesn't work. And it shouldn't be a surprise that people who are paying a lot of money to go to a place that they have really enjoyed in the past find that disappointing, or that people think it was poor planning to spend $1.5 billion on a marketing gimic that negatively impacts the park experience rather than investing in actual attractions that could have positively impacted them.

Be careful, you're making way too much sense...