Updated 6/5!! Grand Villa Every 3 Years - Me Do the Math and Pick a Use Year

[mrsclark]

Update made to my original post with new information and questions in post #1!

 

[Sandisw]

Original Post 5/27:

I have been researching DVC for over a year - it is complicated! I am helping my dad look into purchasing a contract. We have narrowed it down to the following four resorts: BLT, BWV, SSR, and AKV.

I think I have the following correct: If he wants to rent a Grand Villa every third year starting in 2022, with the current 50% borrowing restrictions in place, we need a contract with 40% of the points we will need to rent a grand villa in order to make this happen. For example, if we think a week in a GV will cost us 800 points (and I am using the 2022 points charts), we would want to look for a contract around 320-350 points, correct? Then we would take our banked 2021 points, all of our 2022 points and half of our 2023 points to get the GV.

We could look for one big contract OR, as long as keep the same use year, we could buy several smaller contracts. From what I understand the advantage of buying a large contract is that the price per point is generally lower - is that correct?

I am having some trouble with the use year:
Months With High Likelihood of Travel:
March
May
June
October

Months With Middle Likelihood of Travel:
January
February
April
November
December

Months With Little to No Likelihood of Travel:
July
August
September

Based on the fact that there is a small possibility we would want to go next March, I think we need to get a March use year, but if I am missing something obvious, please let me know.


Update 6/4:
Dad and I sat down together yesterday to go over everything you all said in the thread and the spreadsheet I put together going over various options and costs. We have made a lot of changes to our plans that we would like to get feedback on.

Even though he thought he wanted a Grand Villa every three years, based on your feedback and my research, he now wants to buy enough points to do either a one-bedroom and two studios or two-bedroom and one studio every other year. Even if we don’t end up taking another big three family trip after the trip in 2022, he wants the option to go again as a big family OR to rent/gift points to my stepbrother and/or me OR take a trip with just my stepmom.

Here is the big surprise: we didn’t include it in our original search because it doesn’t have Grand Villas, but once we no longer needed a GV, we expanded our search and he has fallen in love with Beach Club. That is where he wants to own and stay. So BCV it is!

We are back to use year discussion and after discussing more in depth with Dad, I think we need to look for a very different use year than what we were originally thinking.

High likelihood of travel:
June - this is his first choice
October - this is second choice

Medium likelihood of travel:
January
February
May
July
August
September
November
December

Very Low likelihood of Travel:
March
April

Based on this, I think we need to look for a June use year, but if I am missing something, let me know.

June UY is ideal for sure.

 

[10CJ]

I think this sounds like a much better plan overall. I agree June sounds like the best UY.

 

[RoseGold]

BC is a very small resort, and there aren't many contracts. You are going to have to pay what the market demands for that, so you should be able to get whatever UY you want.

 

[Donna M]

Sounds like a better plan.

 

[crisi]

Do note that BCV is very popular. So you'll need to plan in advance and stick to those plans more than possibly any other resort at WDW. It can be hard to get studios at eleven months out in the last quarter of the year - there are just a lot of owners who want to go at that time and only buy the points for studios. That's your October timeframe. Its like every owner of the Epcot area resorts has decided that they want to travel for Food and Wine or Christmas decorations and they all want studios.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

I own at bcv and I think that is a great choice to do a two bed with a studio. I have done that and my roo becomes the room everyone hangs out in and saves you points on th three bedroom. Owning th err is a must if that is your first choice to stay as the 7 month window there keeps getting tighter especially for studios and two bedrooms. I think june, february, april use year works for your plans. Actually since you have such a wide range of travel months I don't think use year matters. Buy the best deal and a loaded contract

 

[mrsclark]

Dad made his first offer today on a 200 point June use year with all 2021 points - keeping my fingers crossed!

 

[supersnoop]

June UY is ideal for sure.

I'm curious why you think that? Based on the "least likely" months listed, it seems like June would be the worst use year to me. When travel is spread out throughout the year, I always tell people to think of the three consecutive least likely months to travel, and pick the use year immediately following. That helps to mitigate any issues with canceling a reservation and being stuck with unusable points in the current use year.

 

[mrsclark]

I think June did not make sense for my original post, but I updated my original post with a new post on 6/5 with the following which is where the June UY came from.

High likelihood of travel:
June - this is his first choice
October - this is second choice

Medium likelihood of travel:
January
February
May
July
August
September
November
December

Very Low likelihood of Travel:
March
April

 

[Sandisw]

I'm curious why you think that? Based on the "least likely" months listed, it seems like June would be the worst use year to me. When travel is spread out throughout the year, I always tell people to think of the three consecutive least likely months to travel, and pick the use year immediately following. That helps to mitigate any issues with canceling a reservation and being stuck with unusable points in the current use year.

Based on June and October being the top two, and the travel that is worst for June being March, April and May…which two of those 3 being least likely, it makes the best sense.

June UY banking is end of January, so even Feb trips are covered since you have to cancel at least 31 days in advance to avoid holding.

 

[supersnoop]

Based on June and October being the top two, and the travel that is worst for June being March, April and May…which two of those 3 being least likely, it makes the best sense.

June UY banking is end of January, so even Feb trips are covered since you have to cancel at least 31 days in advance to avoid holding.

Thanks, I must have missed the update.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

I think best use years are February, March, April, and June and October, based on travel priority. Gives you a wide range. Buy whichever has the best price for a loaded contract. Good luck!

 

[Deb & Bill]

It looks like Mrsclark is getting it, but in case someone else finds this thread - this is huge. We've done family trips - one was delayed for a pregnancy, then delayed again when my sister got breast cancer. That trip was finally taken - but had one extra toddler and was missing my youngest sister and the man who had been her fiance when the trip was originally planned - my sister had a rough time, the fiancee was thankfully gone, but she didn't have the emotional strength for family time. We once invited friends who dithered well past the time we needed - so we spread out our family in a two bedroom rather than putting our kids on the couch and giving another family the second bedroom. And there was the Grand Villa trip where my brother in laws cancer went from "in remission" when we made the reservation to him having passed by the time we took the trip. We took one trip bringing some nearly random friends because we had the room with plans for someone else, and they cancelled - so it was "who can use this space, can travel in four months, and can afford the costs of airfare/park tickets/ and food. And that's the big stuff. With families there is always "oh, we have a soccer tournament that weekend, can we move it" or "big project at work." And unless the DVC owner is picking up ALL the costs, a Disney World vacation may turn out to be a place a family doesn't want to put their cash (or vacation time) right now - we've had that as well where a big family trip got cancelled because some people in the party needed to spend a lot less than what the desired trip would cost.
...

I was thinking exactly of you when I made my post. I remember some of your stories trying to herd cats for a reservation.

 

[crisi]

I was thinking exactly of you when I made my post. I remember some of your stories trying to herd cats for a reservation.

And honestly, for the most part, you can't blame someone for having to cancel because they get pregnant, are undergoing chemo, die, or their substance abuse recovery is still too fragile. We have never had someone commit and pull out for a reason like "the kid has a soccer tournament." And our dithers never committed. We booked the room without the commitment, so...our bad.