Tropical Storm Fay - TUESDAY 11 AM UPDATE in post #1

[PNO4TE]

Thanks! LOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNNGGG time no see!

It has been! Have a ball!

 

[Muhlenberg]

It has been! Have a ball!

Thanks! We will...I'm not letting "no stinkin' Tropical Storm" get in my way! It's just the two of us...no kids (who are all grown up anyway)...and no parents!

 

[ZIPBAGS]

Could Fay miss central & western Florida??...maybe....

Current Trends Put T.S. Fay Path Into Miami, Away From Central Florida
Hurricane Center's Path Has Landfall Near Tampa As Cat. 1

POSTED: 5:51 am EDT August 18, 2008
UPDATED: 7:40 am EDT August 18, 2008


ORLANDO, Fla. -- Current trends show Tropical Storm Fay veering away from the National Hurricane Center's projected path of movement and moving into Miami and away from Central Florida during the next several days.

NOAA's projected path of movement has continued to show Fay making landfall near Tampa as a category 1 hurricane.

However, some models are showing a very different path with possible landfall in Miami.

"Our forecast based on current trends and what we are seeing is that (Fay) is going to take a much different path," Local 6 meteorologist Eric Wilson said.

The path would put the storm moving through Miami and then into the Atlantic.

"(That) means it misses (Central Florida) completely," Wilson said. "It keeps us on the safer side of the forward-moving storm."

The National Hurricane Center's path continues to put the storm farther west moving near Fort Myers on Tuesday and then into Tampa.

"Regardless of its strength (when it hits Central Florida) it has the possibility of producing severe weather in the right front quadrant, which is where we will be (on the Hurricane Center's path)," Wilson said.

"It is still very much (Central Florida's) problem," Local 6 meteorologist Tom Sorrells said.

The cone of projected movement still covers much of the state of Florida.

Fay will remain over Cuba most of Monday.

"Where Fay emerges (from Cuba) and where it is going will tell the difference whether we really get thumped with this thing or just get a huge glancing blow," Sorrells said.

Tropical storm-force winds would cover Central Florida on the National Hurricane Center's current path.

"We are in what is called the ugly side of this," Wilson said. "We need this to move farther out into the Gulf of Mexico or at least a bit east."

Winds were expected to remain about 50 mph Sunday as the system moved near Cuba.

Fay continued to head toward the west at about 15 mph with sustained winds at 50 mph.

Watch Local 6 News for more on this developing story.

 

[Muhlenberg]

That's hopeful news! Not for Miami, but you know what I mean. Maybe it will go out to the Atlantic before it even gets there.

 

[JimMIA]

Sounds like Local 6 has a little disagreement between its own meterologists!

Actually, the center of the storm is already just offshore on the north side of Cuba. And it's moving NNW, not NE as Local 6 in Orlando thinks. Their problem is they have confused the movement of convection with movement of the storm itself.

The heavy weather in a storm moves concentrically outward from the center of rotation. In the case of Fay, there is no convection in the NW quadrant, so when you look at radar, and especially satellite imagery, it looks like the whole thing is moving NE. The truth is all of the weather is moving outward from the center, but nothing shows up on radar or satellite except the heavy weather to the NE. So it looks like the storm is moving that way, but it's not.

All of the models are in fairly close agreement for the next 24 hours -- taking the storm NNW over Key West and up the Gulf Coast -- but they go nuts beyond that.

The models for this system have been the most inconsistent I've ever seen, so we'll just have to see what happens. What you'd like to see is consistency from one model run to the next, but I don't think we've had that once in two weeks.

We have been getting feeder bands for several hours in Miami, and there is a tornado watch in effect for extreme South Dade County. We're going to get 6-8 inches of rain, but not much severe wind unless there are tornados. So far, we've had a few winds of 20 MPH in feeder bands, but nothing more. I'm waiting for a few hours to decide whether I take my pool fence down and/or put shutters up across the back porch, which faces south and would be the most vulnerable area for this storm.

 

[BCV23]

Jim, thanks as always for your hurricane updates which I rely on.

Good luck with your preparations and stay safe, Floridians.

 

[WEHAVEM]

Jim i'll 2nd that, thanks for your informative updates...any gut feel on what my chance will be for a PM flight into MCO departing Manchester NH 7:30 and arriving Orlando 10:30 pm...where the storm might becausing the most havoc around that timeframe?

 

[MomofCKJ]

I am reading this thread with interest and appreciate your updates Jim! I am due to fly out Thursday at noon from CT and just don't know what to expect. I hope I can get there but I gearing myself up for delays due to backlogged travel over the next couple days.

Allyson

 

[JimMIA]

Jim i'll 2nd that, thanks for your informative updates...any gut feel on what my chance will be for a PM flight into MCO departing Manchester NH 7:30 and arriving Orlando 10:30 pm...where the storm might becausing the most havoc around that timeframe?

That's tough to say. My gut reaction is you're okay, but weather is not the only factor in that equation.

The weather forecast for MCO is light winds until about noon tommorow, but your airline may go into a repositioning mode before that. You really need to keep checking with your airline -- and it's the kind of thing you might not know until you either get turned away or they close the door and pull back from the gate.

 

[ZIPBAGS]

Jim,

At what level of weather (ie-Winds) can airlines land safely?

 

[WEHAVEM]

That's tough to say. My gut reaction is you're okay, but weather is not the only factor in that equation.

The weather forecast for MCO is light winds until about noon tommorow, but your airline may go into a repositioning mode before that. You really need to keep checking with your airline -- and it's the kind of thing you might not know until you either get turned away or they close the door and pull back from the gate.

Thanks...I guess i'll just wait it out, that's all we can do at this point, we've gone from definitely canceling to give it some time to just sit back and see where the cards fall, i guess that Disney Magic will do that to you

 

[ZIPBAGS]

Here is the latest (11am Mond) projected path. It shows in northwest of Orlando by 8am monday. With me landing 2hrs later it might be ok???

 

[Yankee fan]

Jim,
We appreciate your knowledge and updates.
We have a 7:30 am flight out on Wednes. morning from Newark.
What are our chances of that flight not being cancelled?
Keeping the faith....

 

[JimMIA]

bumping the 11 am Monday update

 

[JimMIA]

It's impossible to guess whether flights on Tuesday or Wednesday will get through.

I wouldn't think Tues afternoon/evening flights will go. But it's hard to say about earlier Tuesday or Wednesday morning. The storm could stall, change course slightly, etc, and then all bets would be off.

You folks who are flying in will just have to keep checking with your airline, and you might have to go to the airport and find out there. The airlines usually keep flights scheduled as long as they can and they often cancel right at the last minute.

If you are flying, be sure you have the number for the front desk of the resort where you are staying. If you get canceled, call MS or the front desk and let them know what happened, and whether or not you are coming the next day. If you don't notify them, you risk losing your points.

 

[tinker925]

We're flying out of Boston at 7am on Wednesday too, keeping my fingers tightly crossed! Thanks for all these great updates. Very much appreciated.

 

[MichelleB]

Any guesses as to how this will affect Vero? We are due to fly in on Thursday.

 

[JimMIA]

Any guesses as to how this will affect Vero? We are due to fly in on Thursday.

If the system doesn't stall unexpectedly, Thursday should be fine. Especially if you are flying into WPB or FLL. They'd just fly around any weather and you'd be on the back side of the storm.

 

[n2mm]

We are here now staying at the BCV. I'm checking my options. We are due to fly home at noon on Wednesday. I'm thinking we might not have a flight. I'm hoping they will accommodate us Wednesday night if all flights get cancelled if things get worse. We will be making some decisions tomorrow morning. Looks like tomorow will be a washout for us. No SAB.

 

[ZIPBAGS]

Someone just posted this in another thread....

This is from the MCO website just a few minutes ago:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical Storm Fay


Flight operations are currently continuing normally at Orlando International Airport. We are monitoring the weather situation but do not expect it to cause delays or cancellations.
Please check directly with your airline for details of specific flight operations.
Storm Updates: National Hurricane Center