Time to Restructure Crowd Calendars?

[cel_disney]

I think that crowd calendars being off right now is 'expected' because they were based on assumptions that many things would be up and running that would improve capacity. I don't just mean the MK capacity shortfalls, but that FEA, Soarin, ROL etc are not open either. These attractions being open would make every other line shorter! Especially those in MK!

 

[nilla]

We largely ignore the crowd calendars anymore. We still try to avoid MK on Mondays and Saturdays and hit AK on Saturday or Sunday, but beyond that, we just pick a park order that seems to make sense to us.

 

[livingthedream]

Don't want to get flamed here, but wasn't one of the reasons the new(er) FP+ system was introduced was for Disney to better manage crowds at various parks so that it could better plan appropriate staff levels? Now I know many have argued that this has not necessarily happened to the extent that Disney probably envisioned, but even with the introduction of tiering, Disney has impacted attendance patterns for various attractions in various parks relative to historical patterns.

I know when FP+ was first rolled out, I thought to myself that this would drastically impact the accuracy of crowd calendars. Crowd calendars in and of themselves have historically greatly influenced traffic at the various parks as knowledge of their existence has grown through the years. Whether one believes Disney was successful in their attempt to rebalance park attendance through the new way FP+ operates or not, by simply introducing new ways that people can access attractions(again, tiering is a good example), I believe this has at least somewhat influenced crowds, and therefore, the accuracy of crowd calendars have been impacted. This is because they all to some extent are based on historical behaviour. After a few years of the new patterns being in place, I believe crowd calendars will again be more accurate because consistent trends will start popping out, but right now, there isn't really enough history yet for those who predict crowds to consistently (and accurately - or at least as accurately as they once were) base their current recommendations. Does that make sense?

 

[gorkt]

I use crowd calendars as a loose guide, nothing more. I have found that as long as you throw in some early mornings and weekdays, and make a few specific priorities, you generally can see the things you want to see without waiting too long.

 

[jshersher]

I thought the crowd calendar that I found on WDWprep school was pretty good, and it helped me keep track of what shows to see on what nights too!

 

[Mikie]

I don't think it's right to change the meaning of the ratings like that over time. Crowd calendars are for the consumption of the general public, who are being misled when they think a "5" means moderate crowds, if it now really means heavy crowds. How are they supposed to know that "5" means "heavy" this particular year? They are logically assuming that, since 5 is halfway between 1 and 10, that it is also halfway between uncrowded and crowded (hence, moderate). I think the "new 5 is the old 8" argument is just a way for crowd-calendar makers to dodge responsibility for their calendars being wrong.

If a park currently has heavy attendance every day of the year, then it should have a 7, 8, 9 or 10 ranking every single day of the year. That's the only way that the crowd calendars will actually give useful information to the public.

Perhaps a 2-level rating or description would be helpful. Holding the bar constant relative to park capacity tells you that yes, it's 7-10 most days of the year on that scale.

However, under the current systems, The general public would know what the relative definition of a "5" is by reading the background info provided before the actual calendars, so it's not misleading - it's right there in the (boring) background stuff. As others have stated, the relativity is very important. Most people are not deciding to go to Disney or not go based on crowd levels. They are deciding which week or which day compared to all other weeks or days available on which to go.
ETA: sorry, I was thinking of the two most commonly talked about on DIS - Touring Plans and EasyWDW. I don't know whether all crowd calendars out there give background on the methods behind their calendars.

 

[lugnut33]

The above comment is pretty accurate. Impact's to crowds are many. As Pete stated yesterday on the DISUnplugged, Brazil is suffering through tough economic times and that looks to be impacting Disney's summer bookings from those tour groups. That could be better than expected crowd numbers during the summer (yeah that's a dream ). Any crowd calendar projecting the future is just that a projections. Use it for base planning and if it isn't accurate...................well..............what are your options? It is what it is...........right.

Doug

But then a reduction in guests doesn't matter if Disney turns around and cuts operations budgets, thus pushing up wait times because nobody is there to operate the ride at full capacity.

 

[lugnut33]

Hearing the reports of attractions being run under capacity means I expect to maybe get my three FP + attractions and a couple of other lesser attractions done (Maybe five or six in a day) and not much more. I've just got to lower my expectations of what I get done next week. If I get six rides/shows down in a Day instead of nine to ten, I will be happy. It's disappointing that Disney world is purposefully forcing folks to go during busiest times to get the most done.

Don't forget, you also get to pay more fore the reduced expectations. It's a big reason I sold my DVC contracts.

Josh at Easy uses a great example of reduced staffing and how it effects the lines. He says Kilimanjaro Safaris will open up only running one side thus causing the line to balloon to 50 minutes almost immediately after opening. If they were running both sides the attraction could handle the influx of people much easier thus keeping the line shorter.

 

[lugnut33]

Disney really did mess up by spending 2 billion on MDE rather than building attractions to help spread out and absorb the crowds. It's not going to get any better until Star Wars is done in 2019 (or 2021 is more likely).

 

[JimmyV]

Don't want to get flamed here, but wasn't one of the reasons the new(er) FP+ system was introduced was for Disney to better manage crowds at various parks so that it could better plan appropriate staff levels? Now I know many have argued that this has not necessarily happened to the extent that Disney probably envisioned, but even with the introduction of tiering, Disney has impacted attendance patterns for various attractions in various parks relative to historical patterns.

I know when FP+ was first rolled out, I thought to myself that this would drastically impact the accuracy of crowd calendars. Crowd calendars in and of themselves have historically greatly influenced traffic at the various parks as knowledge of their existence has grown through the years. Whether one believes Disney was successful in their attempt to rebalance park attendance through the new way FP+ operates or not, by simply introducing new ways that people can access attractions(again, tiering is a good example), I believe this has at least somewhat influenced crowds, and therefore, the accuracy of crowd calendars have been impacted. This is because they all to some extent are based on historical behaviour. After a few years of the new patterns being in place, I believe crowd calendars will again be more accurate because consistent trends will start popping out, but right now, there isn't really enough history yet for those who predict crowds to consistently (and accurately - or at least as accurately as they once were) base their current recommendations. Does that make sense?

I think there is a lot to this. We noticed that crowds had very much been redistributed throughout the park and that this makes the park seem more crowded than perhaps it is. If in the past there were 5 minute waits at HM, Pirates, Small World and Aladdin, but a 90 minute wait at Space Mountain, then the park didn't seem so crowded because I was "in the know" and knew how to ride Space Mountain without a wait. (Once at RD; twice with a FP and once late in the evening). But now you can have the same number of people in the park but they are in 20 minute lines for the attractions listed above and an hour long line for Space Mountain. That makes the park seem more crowded even if the gate attendance is the same. I definitely think that the crowd calendars have underestimated discretionary spending by Americans in a recovering economy, but I also think that much of what we are experiencing is the result of relatively new crowd redistribution patterns.

 

[Davey Jones II]

It's disgusting that Disney runs rides at low capacity during boom times. They are artificially inflating wait times to save a few bucks. If you experience that, please complain to Disney. There is no excuse for this crap.

As for me, I am contemplating my first "Disney free" Florida vacation. I refuse to give them my hard earned money as long as they institute Draconian cutbacks that have a direct impact on the guest experience.

 

[Davey Jones II]

Disney really did mess up by spending 2 billion on MDE rather than building attractions to help spread out and absorb the crowds. It's not going to get any better until Star Wars is done in 2019 (or 2021 is more likely).

Very true. Although we made FP+ work for us on our last trip (Oct. 2014), imagine what else they could've done with $2 billion. But clearly, this company couldn't care less if we are packed into their parks like sardines. For now, until the backlash really gathers momentum, they are minting money, and that's all they care about.

 

[Davey Jones II]

Parks being more crowded than they used to be makes sense to me, so I get a crowd level of 5 not being the same as it was 5-10 years ago. FP+ getting priority in the lines and making standby waits longer makes sense to me. What does not make sense to me is the lower ride capacity. Why is Disney doing this? I read somewhere that it wouldn't cost them much to increase capacity since most CMs are college students making minimum wage. Is there more to it than this? Is running the ride at capacity really costly? What is their reasoning behind all this? Are they trying to make people have a miserable time so the parks aren't as crowded? What gives? Is the money suck of Shanghai Disney behind any of this? Thoughts?

The cost cutters are now in charge at Disney. The guest experience is an afterthought, if that. Like I said above, complain to Disney about this. If you had a miserable time, tell them about it. If you're going less often (or planning an alternative destination) because of this crap, tell them that. Since all they care about is the almighty $$$, they won't change these lousy policies until enough of us vote with our wallets.

 

[notrub98]

I've always used crowd calendars to decide when to take my trips. Our trip last September crowds were predicted to be 4 and 5, felt like 9 or 10. Sure enough TP later said crowds were indeed a 9. We're going the first week of December this year, TP has crowds most days at a max of 3 or 4. I'm wondering why if this week is the least crowded in December then why is it excluded from the FD promotion? They must not be worried about filling rooms onsite?

I went the same week last year and the weekdays were great. The weekends (including Friday) were INSANELY packed. So, just plan accordingly.

 

[DisneyDad2015]

The cost cutters are now in charge at Disney. The guest experience is an afterthought, if that. Like I said above, complain to Disney about this. If you had a miserable time, tell them about it. If you're going less often (or planning an alternative destination) because of this crap, tell them that. Since all they care about is the almighty $$$, they won't change these lousy policies until enough of us vote with our wallets.

Thankfully, I'm having a great time, even with the crowds. Great planning and well timed breaks make it very manageable. As far as rides being run at lower capacity, I've only noticed it once this week. Everything else seems to be running as normal.

 

[PatMcDuck]

I think that it will improve in MK, when some of the attractions open in Epcot (new Soarin' and Frozen/Norway) and Animal Kingdom (all the night activities, ROL, Pandora next year). Right now, people will go to MK more than usual, especially those without park hoppers.

Studios will draw lighter crowds for a couple of years, of course.

 

[goofy4prez]

When I first started going to WDW I would use EasyWdw and TP without fail. I would look them over, cross reference them to each other and study them like I would a Bible; and back then they were pretty good. Fast forward to today. I don't even look at them anymore. My last two trips until last year I still used them and I came to the conclusion that crazy busy is just that, crazy busy... And it really didn't matter when I was there. I've been there during a supposedly slow week after thanksgiving, slow... Yea right... A supposedly slower first week of June...Yea right... Slow at the end of January beginning of February... Yea right. I now use the best WDW touring plan and crowd predictor available... ME. And ME is just as accurate.

 

[Kimberly9701]

Thankfully, I'm having a great time, even with the crowds. Great planning and well timed breaks make it very manageable. As far as rides being ran at lower capacity, I've only noticed it once this week. Everything else seems to be running as normal.

This is so nice to read after so much being said in the opposite direction lately!!!!
I will be there in December...if I take stock in the majority of things that are being said, I would be in for a horrible trip! And our September 2015 trip was wonderful!!!

 

[BradChristian]

Animal Kingdom is a giant park... and in the coming years - having more attendance stay there through the evening will help MK and EPCOT a ton! World Showcase will be open at park open now too for Frozen Ever After... and that will help absorb the crowds as well. 3 Theaters at Soarin' and expanded TSMM will help to manage some giant waits, but Disney World is more popular than ever before. More Americans can afford $105 tickets, so we will see more people using Disney as a destination. Social Media and Dis Communities have only helped the company grow!

Remember the early 2000s? The only time you would see a Disney Park on a national stage throughout the year was on the Travel Channel.

 

[Tarheel girl 1975]

Between FP+ issues, and reduced capacity, the ability to really predict a crowd calendar has really suffered.

Sure.... a day in the middle of April will have far far fewer people than a day during Christmas week. But if you are operating at reduced capacity, those April lines can actually be worse than Christmas lines.
And where Disney is making major unpredictable changes in their staffing and capacity, you can't predict it.

I'm going very very late summer. The crowd calendars suggest the crowds should dip significantly. I assume Disney will operate at full capacity most of the summer. I am HOPING they continue to keep full capacity through labor day, so that I get full staffing + reduced crowds = short lines. But if they reduce staffing in mid August, then I could be in for a horrible trip.

I also think the implementation of FP+ has affected their accuracy. Love it or hate it, it's definitely a less transparent system and much harder to predict.

I don't think it's right to change the meaning of the ratings like that over time. Crowd calendars are for the consumption of the general public, who are being misled when they think a "5" means moderate crowds, if it now really means heavy crowds. How are they supposed to know that "5" means "heavy" this particular year? They are logically assuming that, since 5 is halfway between 1 and 10, that it is also halfway between uncrowded and crowded (hence, moderate). I think the "new 5 is the old 8" argument is just a way for crowd-calendar makers to dodge responsibility for their calendars being wrong.

If a park currently has heavy attendance every day of the year, then it should have a 7, 8, 9 or 10 ranking every single day of the year. That's the only way that the crowd calendars will actually give useful information to the public.

Touring Plans used to do something similar to this and ended up with a scale of 3-10. A scale of 1-5 or 1-10 is more standard and they explain that it is relative on their site.