Time to Restructure Crowd Calendars?

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I don't put much stock in that. School district calendars are set at a minimum two years out, but in most cases, three years out. I could already tell you what our calendar is for up to 2017-2018, and with a phone call could find out 2018-2019. While there may be individual state testing that could be in play, there certainly isn't anything unique to the Northeast region. And any state testing is also set at least 2-3 years in advance and wouldn't result in any calendar movement.

I think that really depends on the school district, public/private, school level (college vs lower levels) and any state laws that might mandate advance planning like that.

You'll probably find that yes a majority of schools advance plan around 2 to 3 years out but that will not be the case everywhere plus you also might have areas where even with advance planning if a school needs to adjust their calendar all they have to do is go through the proper channels to get that changed.

 

[Delirium]

Park recommendations can't be considered in a vacuum. Otherwise, there are dozens of days in a year where NO park would be recommended. Magic Kingdom may be 'Recommended' only because Epcot. HS, or AK will be comparatively worse. Or, it may be 'Recommended' today because the next 6 days will be worse. You have to consider recommendations in context of what your alternatives are.

 

[TBGOES2DISNEY]

Parks being more crowded than they used to be makes sense to me, so I get a crowd level of 5 not being the same as it was 5-10 years ago. FP+ getting priority in the lines and making standby waits longer makes sense to me. What does not make sense to me is the lower ride capacity. Why is Disney doing this? I read somewhere that it wouldn't cost them much to increase capacity since most CMs are college students making minimum wage. Is there more to it than this? Is running the ride at capacity really costly? What is their reasoning behind all this? Are they trying to make people have a miserable time so the parks aren't as crowded? What gives? Is the money suck of Shanghai Disney behind any of this? Thoughts?

 

[Robertfam08]

What has caused such an uptick in park attendance? Has to be an improvement in the economy, right? Because Disney hasn't gotten any cheaper and the park improvements have happened at a snail's pace.

I have a theory, but it's just mine. Yes, I think an improving economy has something to do with it, but I also think the blow up of social media has played a HUGE role. People are sharing vacation photos more and gushing about what a great time they had. Youtube is FULL of videos about Disney. There are a ton of blogs. I have a family blog, just a little thing followed mostly by people I know personally...and in the last two years at least five families I know from our small town have booked Disney trips based on the trip reports on our little 'ole blog. I think there are a ton of first time guests because of word of mouth and social media, and they are less affected by costs, because they have nothing to compare it to, having never been. It costs what it costs!

 

[Farps]

We generally use EasyWDW at least there is an explanation for his predictions every day. And if not we can always ask our other friend...

 

[vinotinto]

The TP figures are based on the wait times (I believe for the main 3 mountains). So, even if there are thousands of fewer people, if Disney is not running the attractions at full capacity, then the waits are going to be higher.

EasyWDW was showing extended queues with only half the attraction car running at The Great Movie Ride. Even if there is half the people than at Christmas, the wait is going to be the same.

 

[Disneymom1126]

I wonder how much the opt-out movement affected April crowds...families that opt out of testing may decide if no alternative activities are provided for kids they may take them out of school during standardized testing....just a thought, I have absolutely no evidence this is true lol

As for crowd calendars - I've used easywdw' crowd calendars and followed Josh's recommended touring plans (with revisions that fit our family priorities and touring style) and the only place we have run into any long waits at all is Hollywood Studios...and that's mostly because of the tiers - we typically FP+ TSMM, ToT, and Star Tours so we've waited in lines for GMR (30 min) and RnRR (60 min)....would have rope dropped RnRR but didn't think DD would ride it so once we were over there and she decided she wanted to we had to wait...we haven't waited longer than 20 min anywhere else and we ride everything.

 

[mommajo143]

Our m strategy has shifted really & we use park hoppers. We rope drop one park, lunch, nap or resort pool & then close down a different park. We are free to go to another park if our chosen park is overly crowded & its cramping our style. I dislike the 'feel' of being crowded more than the actual ride waits & so do my kids. My boys love the monorail & boats ... you would never be able to convince them they weren't attractions to be ridden each trip like everything else. We use FPP but have found rope drop is the most reliable way for us to avoid crowds for E Ticket attractions... I mean the FPP ques have gotten redonkulous.

 

[Naterfan]

Your response seems kind of testy IMO. I was merely making an observation. Do you make crowd calendars and I somehow offended you?

It was, and I'm sorry about that. Its just, if someone gives something away, something that they've most likely spent hours working on, I'd think that the last thing they'd want to hear is that it wasn't good enough and that they really need to come up with a better way of doing it. Especially if the person judging the product didn't offer any solutions of their own. If, as Robo stated above, you're paying for a product and that product comes with an expectation of being, in the case of a crown calendar, accurate and it turns out to be grossly inaccurate, then that's a completely different story.

 

[KangaFan]

I've always used crowd calendars to decide when to take my trips. Our trip last September crowds were predicted to be 4 and 5, felt like 9 or 10. Sure enough TP later said crowds were indeed a 9. We're going the first week of December this year, TP has crowds most days at a max of 3 or 4. I'm wondering why if this week is the least crowded in December then why is it excluded from the FD promotion? They must not be worried about filling rooms onsite?

We went this week in Dec 2014 and then the next to last week in August 2015--I think the crowds/wait times between these were similar, then end of our week in August was actually better since we went Wed-Wed. Neither of these weeks was bad, but definitely busier than when we've gone in late January, so I'm thinking a 3 might be kind of low . . .

 

[Amunet]

I plan my days based upon dining availability and hours a park is open.
That and sticking to FP times work for me

I use the crowd calendars to mentally prepare for suggested crowds. If these calenders are similar to weather reports in Florida, then bringing a poncho into the park is akin to the mental preparation I use the calendars for.

 

[Shanti]

One of the problems is that people need to understand that a "5" today is much different from a "5" ten years ago. A "5" today is like what an "8" was ten years ago.

I don't think it's right to change the meaning of the ratings like that over time. Crowd calendars are for the consumption of the general public, who are being misled when they think a "5" means moderate crowds, if it now really means heavy crowds. How are they supposed to know that "5" means "heavy" this particular year? They are logically assuming that, since 5 is halfway between 1 and 10, that it is also halfway between uncrowded and crowded (hence, moderate). I think the "new 5 is the old 8" argument is just a way for crowd-calendar makers to dodge responsibility for their calendars being wrong.

If a park currently has heavy attendance every day of the year, then it should have a 7, 8, 9 or 10 ranking every single day of the year. That's the only way that the crowd calendars will actually give useful information to the public.

 

[Kimly]

They have been unless for over two years. We are local and it's been balls to the wall packed very time we go. Once in awhile, we go to a park that is supposed to be like a 8-9, and it may be like a 5-6... But that's rare.

 

[KathyNY76]

I wonder how much the opt-out movement affected April crowds...families that opt out of testing may decide if no alternative activities

Not at all I think. Here in NY if we kept our kid out of school on testing days then they have to take the make up tests. So if you want to opt out, you have to send in your note AND send in your kid. My daughter did lots of reading those days!

 

[DavidNYC]

While I thank the people who make the crowd calendars as a service, there's nothing magical about them. If you understand some basic information about the park hours and crowd history (and take into account obvious things such as holiday periods) you pretty much have the exact same information they do (although I admit I use them as well to save myself some time looking up everything from different sources). So many things that can't be predicted affect crowds. You have rain one day and it can throw off calendars for a few days as people readjust plans based on that.

My system is pretty much avoid EMH parks and don't go to MK on Saturday or Monday. Just taking those two things into account I seem to have a 95% agreement with the various calendars out there.

 

[Shanti]

I think that really depends on the school district, public/private, school level (college vs lower levels) and any state laws that might mandate advance planning like that.

You'll probably find that yes a majority of schools advance plan around 2 to 3 years out but that will not be the case everywhere plus you also might have areas where even with advance planning if a school needs to adjust their calendar all they have to do is go through the proper channels to get that changed.

I'm a teacher and our district calendars are set the year before, not 2-3 years before.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I'm a teacher and our district calendars are set the year before, not 2-3 years before.

Yeah...that was my point to the other poster's comment. Majority may plan that far in advance but not all. There have been several instances that I can remember where I was in school and the calendar changed within 365 days and that did happen in college too.

From what little search I did for college and universities in my state require the 3 year calendars be approved by the State in advance though to make an adjustment you just have to get approval from the Board of Regents to do so-which I personally know they have done that before like I mentioned above.

I couldn't easily find the time line for lower level education but I know the school district I grew up in has the 2015-2016 and the 2016-2017 calendars up though I know they can change just like college and universities can if they need to after the calendar was given approval..it happened the year after I graduated high school where they let everyone out 2 weeks in advance for just my alma mater high school in order to do construction on it..that was not planned that far in advance.

The school district that I now live in has the calendar one year further up to 2017-2018...the districts are right next to each other and they even vary with how far in advance they have calendars up which was my whole point to the poster.

 

[DVCcurious]

Here's my crowd calendar

Jan 1: Crowded
Jan 2: Crowded
Jan 3: Crowded
.
.
.
.
.
December 30: Crowded
December 31: Crowded



And my expertise didn't cost you a dime!

 

[JimmyV]

Park recommendations can't be considered in a vacuum. Otherwise, there are dozens of days in a year where NO park would be recommended. Magic Kingdom may be 'Recommended' only because Epcot. HS, or AK will be comparatively worse. Or, it may be 'Recommended' today because the next 6 days will be worse. You have to consider recommendations in context of what your alternatives are.

Exactly. I think that some people are expecting crowd calendars and crowd prediction services to lead them to an uncrowded park. But it doesn't work that way. Way more often than not, what they are doing is helping you make the best of a bad situation. Every crowd calendar is going to have a "most recommend park" on Christmas and New Years and Presidents Day and the Fourth of July. But don't expect that recommend park on those days to be anything less than a mob scene. That doesn't make the service wrong. Instead, they are trying to give advice on the best order in which to visit the lion's den, the viper pit and the torture chamber. When those are your choices, it is easy to conclude that the service steered you wrong,. But what do you want them to do? Tell you that the most recommended strategy is to stay home? That is why TP stresses that a good touring strategy is way more effective than overall park selection.

 

[Nancyg56]

I don't really look at crowd calendars anymore. It seems that most park days are heavy park days now, with only relatively minor gradations in the heaviness.

I look at a regular park calendar in an attempt to dodge the Magic Hour/party/Money Hour events, but otherwise I just show up early with a plan and hope for the best.

I do the same thing. I also like to read Josh's reasons why he makes recommendations and check TP wait times charts. But I know when I make my plan that the best days opinions are just that, opinions. I use the info that is provided as a guide, and that's it.

Agree, sort of.. you have to apply common sense as well. Maybe December 3rd will be a super crowded week..but I'm placing my bet on Thanksgiving being worse.
Same thing with summer time- probably mid June would be more crowded than late August

What worries me is the crowd predictions per day at the park. I've chosen both of our MK days on MVMCP days. One we will leave at 7. The other we will take a mid day break and then head back for the party. SUPPOSEDLY MK is less crowded on party days...so I'm hoping that's correct!

It generally is to an extent. If you get to the MK early you should be good. By 4 the park starts to get congested. Then on non party days, the park is wicked crowded for the better part of the day and REALLY WICKED CROWDED by evening.