It might be all around easiest to plan TOTWL for AK day.
After doing many evening flights into MCO in recent years, 2 things I have learned:
Pad my expected resort arrival time with +60 minutes from best case scenario. Since I started doing that my predicted eta has become much more accurate lol.
Don’t plan things too close to arrival time. It can make that last travel segment more stressful. I’ve done it, looking at my watch each step -small flight delay, not exiting plane fast enough, is the monorail coming, will we get on, will this luggage carousel load already, traffic, how long getting luggage to room, who needs to pee, etc. It’s nicer to start the trip more relaxed, with a buffer so we’re not sweating each little hiccup.
What day are you coming in? Some Thursdays have MK After Hours, and those have a second set of fireworks usually 10pm or 11pm.