Thinking of purchasing GFV - will prices decrease?

[Disneymooner07]

Just curious if with previous resorts the prices went down after the initial offering? My guess is GFV might be a little different because it's so small and this might be the rock-bottom price, but I'm still curious as to past trends so I can make an educated guess as to when I might get the best deal

 

[lsbgvadvcer]

I don't believe that prices have ever gone down. BLT pre-opening pricing for members was $112 in Sept 2008. In Fall 2009 price went up to $120. December 2009 it went up to $130. June 2011 - $140. August 2011 - $150. Currently BLT is $165.

So my best guess would be that the lowest price you're likely to get is right now before opening. It will likely go up fast after opening.

 

[TTUCaric]

I think it is very unlikely the prices will go down. When I spoke with our guide to purchase VGF, she said the prices would go up in June to $165/pt.

 

[dbs1228]

I don't believe that prices have ever gone down. BLT pre-opening pricing for members was $112 in Sept 2008. In Fall 2009 price went up to $120. December 2009 it went up to $130. June 2011 - $140. August 2011 - $150. Currently BLT is $165.

So my best guess would be that the lowest price you're likely to get is right now before opening. It will likely go up fast after opening.

This is not true BLT did go down after initial offering I know we paid in 2010 108.00 with incentives. The asking price without incentives in 2010 was 120.00 and friends of our purchased after initial offering somewhere in the low 90's I think 92.00 pp

 

[AKchristmasqueen]

The price per point won't go down but they do often offer some great incentives to bring the final price down. By the time I got all the incentives for my initial purchase, I paid about $100/point for Aulani.

 

[drpepr]

So historically with incentives the price per point has been below initial offering?? I suppose though for incentives to apply the total number of points needs to reach a certain threshold. For a small addon it is unlikely incentives would apply. Does this sound right?

 

[Missyrose]

I think there are a couple of problems when trying to estimate what the "rock bottom" will be at VGF:

1) The last few resorts were sold through a recession, so Disney had to work much harder to sell points.

2) VGF is MUCH smaller than any of the more recent DVC resorts.

I would say to figure out what you feel comfortable paying and make your decision that way.

 

[Minniesgal]

Depending on how initial sales go they may or may not offer incentives. As VGF is a small resort and they don't have much to sell once it sells out as well as demand seems to be healthy at the moment my guess is that prices will increase rapidly and they won't offer much in the way of incentives.

 

[CarolMN]

I do not think prices will go down. Someone told me that they have already sold over 9 million points and have many lists of people waiting to buy when sales open to the general public. We won't know how true that is for a few months - it takes a while for the paperwork to get recorded and available for our "analysis gurus".

I believe prices are much more likely to rise even quicker than we think if sales are really going so well.

All that said, no one really knows. It's best to buy only if/wen you're ready, based on the information that you have. Good luck!

 

[Disneymooner07]

All very good points I have a gut feeling prices will go up pretty quickly - I feel like it was kind of surprising for VGF to start selling as low as it did! I guess we'll see soon enough what happens!

 

[Nabas]

All very good points I have a gut feeling prices will go up pretty quickly - I feel like it was kind of surprising for VGF to start selling as low as it did! I guess we'll see soon enough what happens!

At $145/point, the initial price surprised a lot of people. (I was one of them.) With 2.5M points, VGF is about the same size as BCV, which now sells for $130/point, has a similar MF, and expires in 2042.

AKV has less than 900K left to sell and the Poly DVC is a few years away. This means VGF will be the only "new" WDW DVC for sale for a few years.

Given these factors and an improving economy, it's hard to imagine Disney needing to offer discounts of VGF in order to sell it out. VGF prices should only go in one direction; up, up, up.

 

[BestDadEver]

The price per point won't go down but they do often offer some great incentives to bring the final price down. By the time I got all the incentives for my initial purchase, I paid about $100/point for Aulani.

I didn't thing the incentives even on a cruise where I bought were that good . What was the PP before you discounts . Cause when I bought I think aulani was $145 pp

I think there are a couple of problems when trying to estimate what the "rock bottom" will be at VGF:

1) The last few resorts were sold through a recession, so Disney had to work much harder to sell points.

2) VGF is MUCH smaller than any of the more recent DVC resorts.

I would say to figure out what you feel comfortable paying and make your decision that way.

Are you saying that were out of the recession . I think we are on a slow and steady up swing but people are still struggling .

Not that , that matters I don't see the price being lower . Really has disney ever lowered prices ever anywhere ? IDK I am asking .

 

[crisi]

Direct prices will not go down.

In a few months resales will begin popping up. Resales will start very high, but they will drop. They may or may not drop precipitously. VAKL resales are much cheaper than their initial price, but GCV has never had a huge delta between resale prices and direct - and BCVs delta has always been smaller - even ten years after opening - compared to VWL or BWV.

I'd guess that in two years resale pricing will look a lot like BLT resale pricing.

 

[Minniesgal]

I think the price is rock bottom. I keep having to stop myself emailing my guide to add on 50. Almost did at lunctime today

 

[Missyrose]

Are you saying that were out of the recession . I think we are on a slow and steady up swing but people are still struggling .

Not that , that matters I don't see the price being lower . Really has disney ever lowered prices ever anywhere ? IDK I am asking .

I never said the recession was over. It just appears that many people are on better financial footing than they were from 2008 to 2011. It's why the resale inventory has seemingly dried up, people's finances are better, so there's no need to sell their contract. You can also see the progress on the resort side as Disney has begun weaning people off the deep discounts that had been so prevalent the past five years.

So yes, I believe Disney will have an easier time selling VGF because a fairly sizable chunk of people aren't in the financial trouble they were in before.

 

[tjkraz]

Someone told me that they have already sold over 9 million points...

VGF only has about 2.5 million points available.

 

[awilliams4]

I don't believe that prices have ever gone down. BLT pre-opening pricing for members was $112 in Sept 2008. In Fall 2009 price went up to $120. December 2009 it went up to $130. June 2011 - $140. August 2011 - $150. Currently BLT is $165.

So my best guess would be that the lowest price you're likely to get is right now before opening. It will likely go up fast after opening.

The price did drop. Several times. It was $96 per point in June 2009. It bottom out at I believe $92 during a Web Cast about 60-90 days later before it started going back up.

 

[CarolMN]

VGF only has about 2.5 million points available.

Well guess I better cross that source off my list, LOL. Thanks for the facts.

 

[tjkraz]

Well guess I better cross that source off my list, LOL. Thanks for the facts.

IF there is any relevance to a "9 million" figure, it COULD be dollars. At $145, that would be 62,000 points. That's around 300 contracts with an average of 200 points.

Those numbers sound feasible for the first week of sales.

PURELY SPECULATIVE, of course.

 

[ELMC]

IF there is any relevance to a "9 million" figure, it COULD be dollars. At $145, that would be 62,000 points. That's around 300 contracts with an average of 200 points.

Those numbers sound feasible for the first week of sales.

PURELY SPECULATIVE, of course.

I have it on good information that VGF has sold eleventy billion points already.

Seriously, though, I've always suspected that the price increases operate on a predetermined schedule based on sales and not time. My thinking is that they have a set number of points that they want to sell at $145 before going up to the next level. By introducing at a relatively low price, I think they have stirred up the necessary amount of excitement to get things moving.

One other point, I think we focused on the high price per point of BLT as the gateway for DVD to charge higher prices for VGF. But in all actuality, I think it was the raising of the prices of the classic resorts that allowed this to happen. SSR (worse location) or BWV (shorter date) for $130 or the brand new VGF for $145 almost seems like a no brainer. Based on this comparison and the level of interest for VGF, I don't see incentives bringing the price below $145 at any time, despite a history that might suggest otherwise.