The star wars spoiler thread

[Eoghann]

Looks like TFA finally falls from the #1 spot if estimates are accurate.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Three weeks at #1 isn't too miraculous...

But what would matter now is if it makes respectable box office for the next few weeks/months...and doesn't flat line

 

[Eoghann]

Three weeks at #1 isn't too miraculous...

But what would matter now is if it makes respectable box office for the next few weeks/months...and doesn't flat line

Miraculous no, but good certainly. The estimates are respectable but below Avatar's numbers. Then again, it can afford to be below Avatar's numbers at this point so long as it stays high enough that theaters assign it screens. Particularly with such a strong showing in China.

 

[Budshark]

Miraculous no, but good certainly. The estimates are respectable but below Avatar's numbers. Then again, it can afford to be below Avatar's numbers at this point so long as it stays high enough that theaters assign it screens. Particularly with such a strong showing in China.

Ummm why? It's the only $800 million domestic movie ever. What more do you want it to prove?

 

[rteetz]

Miraculous no, but good certainly. The estimates are respectable but below Avatar's numbers. Then again, it can afford to be below Avatar's numbers at this point so long as it stays high enough that theaters assign it screens. Particularly with such a strong showing in China.

Speaking of China didn't it open there today? Any word on how it is doing so far?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Ummm why? It's the only $800 million domestic movie ever. What more do you want it to prove?

The question is what does Disney want it to prove?

In this case...that it's a phenomenon that can cross the lines of its traditional fanbase and pull in a mass appeal.

It's counter intuitive...but if this movie dies quickly at the theater - the case can be made that it didn't do that...

Not a great case...but enough to perhaps spook business analysts that aren't bullish on twdc now.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

$32 million...good for china

 

[Budshark]

Speaking of China didn't it open there today? Any word on how it is doing so far?

Posted above... $32M on Saturday. #2/3 opening day for a foreign film. Jurassic opened $17M

 

[Budshark]

The question is what does Disney want it to prove?

In this case...that it's a phenomenon that can cross the lines of its traditional fanbase and pull in a mass appeal.

It's counter intuitive...but if this movie dies quickly at the theater - the case can be made that it didn't do that...

Not a great case...but enough to perhaps spook business analysts that aren't bullish on twdc now.

At $800M it's proven that. A long run is next to impossible for a film this large in today's market. If someone wanted to see if before DVD release they have.

Any negative at this point for domestic movie performance is someone trying to get traction or press by being negative. So in other words there will be a ton of articles written about it.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

At $800M it's proven that. A long run is next to impossible for a film this large in today's market. If someone wanted to see if before DVD release they have.

Any negative at this point for domestic movie performance is someone trying to get traction or press by being negative. So in other words there will be a ton of articles written about it.

You Mailed this one in...

Disney has accomplished most of its goals...no question...but I'm not sure all that was possible.

If you want to diminish this movie...there may be legitimate grounds to. You could point to the ratio of domestic to international gross - potentially - and say that Star Wars is not as strong a product in the international market as Disney needs with some declining revenue in some of its other segments and the huge theme park liabilities overseas.

It's possible...that's all I'm saying. It depends on which way the waves break.

 

[Budshark]

Towards shore. They always break towards shore.

Don't let amazing Domestic numbers paint a horrible overseas picture. Lets put this in perspective.

On day 23 of release, Star Wars is the #10 overseas money maker of all time - without China.

Assuming it makes $200M in China and not a penny anywhere else (it's still making over $10M a day overseas, but let's pretend it doesn't) it will be the #4 movie all time - with China.

Assuming China launched with the rest of the world - what would the domestic take be (again assuming a very conservative $200M)?
43/57 split.

How does that compare to other Sci-Fi flicks?
Avengers AofU - 32/67
Jurassic World - 39/61
Transformers - 22/78

So not too far off Avengers or Jurassic. And the original Avengers was actually 41/59. I'm sure Transformers could use a little more domestic pull too.

We don't know what Disney expected, but we do know the following:

It is a massive financially successful reboot even without another penny
They have successfully launched multiple new characters (key to a franchise)
All negative at this point is click-bait narrative - it is for all intents tied as the 2nd biggest China foreign film opening ever. How do you say Star Wars doesn't play in China now?
It's 1 of 4 films to ever gross a billion overseas (assuming China hits $150M)
It is almost assured to overtake the benchmark of "overseas" films Furious 7.

Again - my point is any negative on success is a narrative someone is putting out there to get attention.

 

[Josh Hendy]

As for the effect - positive or negative - on theme park lands, what do you think ...

Would a greater box office return result in more deluxe and impressive Star Wars lands being built even more quickly ... to satisfy demand?

Or would normal financial prudence dictate that the greater the hit movie, the less that needs to be built. Because the property is so hot, people just want to be near the feeling of the movie. The originality and quality of theming and rides is somewhat redundant. Call it the Frozen effect.

Part of me wants Disney to feel like everything isn't going exactly as they hoped, and they have to try harder to satisfy the public.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

As for the effect - positive or negative - on theme park lands, what do you think ...

Would a greater box office return result in more deluxe and impressive Star Wars lands being built even more quickly ... to satisfy demand?

Or would normal financial prudence dictate that the greater the hit movie, the less that needs to be built. Because the property is so hot, people just want to be near the feeling of the movie. The originality and quality of theming and rides is somewhat redundant. Call it the Frozen effect.

Part of me wants Disney to feel like everything isn't going exactly as they hoped, and they have to try harder to satisfy the public.

That's kinda what I'm wrestling with and why I'm going advocate here...

Tough to tell. Disney has a lot of things going on right now.

The problem with being predictably silent for as long as they did - particularly in Florida - is that I'm not sure they know what to do.

Comcast is becoming a big problem in Florida...not only are they plowing ahead with areas under constuction...that big parcel across the road is a big opportunity. Even if they have no plans...Disney can't ignore it.

I just don't know.

I also don't like this standard "co development" with Anaheim nonsense...

You've got more land in Florida...use it. Two different clienteles...

Are they seriously worrying about what coast they're picking in Missouri?
Cause it doesn't matter...Florida is way easier to navigate.

 

[Eoghann]

Ummm why? It's the only $800 million domestic movie ever. What more do you want it to prove?

Why what?

 

[Eoghann]

As for the effect - positive or negative - on theme park lands, what do you think ...

Would a greater box office return result in more deluxe and impressive Star Wars lands being built even more quickly ... to satisfy demand?

Or would normal financial prudence dictate that the greater the hit movie, the less that needs to be built. Because the property is so hot, people just want to be near the feeling of the movie. The originality and quality of theming and rides is somewhat redundant. Call it the Frozen effect.

Part of me wants Disney to feel like everything isn't going exactly as they hoped, and they have to try harder to satisfy the public.

Net effect zero on current projects. Plans already in motion and the box office so far in line with what they anticipated. I can't really imagine the amount of money it would have to rake in to significantly accelerate plans.

I am very curious as to how Rogue One will perform since it is a unique (to this point) beast for the franchise to date being a stand alone and coming so soon after TFA. Disney are clearly lining that one up for bigger international success. I'm not sure what the expected box office for it would be, but if it goes bigger that might trigger some additional projects.

 

[jade1]

Concerning the overseas box office being important (of course it is), are Star Wars lands going in overseas? Just curious.

 

[Budshark]

Reports are out:

$53M opening in China (largest Saturday ever)
$41M in US (good for 1st place despite reports of otherwise)
$1.713B globally good for 3rd place all time

So as we settle in - looking like a $2B film. $800 Million Domestic and 1.2-1.3B international.

All in all, a huge movie and the biggest franchise film ever.

 

[Eoghann]

Reports are out:

$53M opening in China (largest Saturday ever)
$41M in US (good for 1st place despite reports of otherwise)
$1.713B globally good for 3rd place all time

So as we settle in - looking like a $2B film. $800 Million Domestic and 1.2-1.3B international.

All in all, a huge movie and the biggest franchise film ever.

Yes the only question I've had for a while now is if there is any route to the international record and that all hinges on longevity which is rare these days although comparisons to summer movies are a little iffy because the box office cycle is different. Next week probably answers that.

 

[twebber55]

Reports are out:

$53M opening in China (largest Saturday ever)
$41M in US (good for 1st place despite reports of otherwise)
$1.713B globally good for 3rd place all time

So as we settle in - looking like a $2B film. $800 Million Domestic and 1.2-1.3B international.

All in all, a huge movie and the biggest franchise film ever.

im a little more optimistic here
im thinking 2.4 Billion

 

[jade1]

So as we settle in - looking like a $2B film. $800 Million Domestic and 1.2-1.3B international.

Do you mean currently? Or overall? Its over $800M domestic already.

And is the budget really $200M? I assume plus ads etc but still thought it was more.