Texas

[SamFaniam]

We aren’t supposed to talk about the protests as being a reason for the spikes.

Both local and national news have covered this issue, discussing if there are spikes associated with protests, both the open our state protests and the BLM protests, but they did not find a correlation.

I haven’t seen a lot of people talking about it. All I see is blame being foisted on governors of a certain political persuasion.

I would disagree with you here too. It is all about leadership, and that is not defined by party. I think the Republican governor of Ohio has done an excellent job, and the Democratic governor of Louisiana has not. I had a conversation with a poster from Ohio back sometime ago. He was one of the people that was really dismissive about corona. I suggested the part of that was because his governor had done such a good job that Ohio didn’t see the same emergency situation that other places did.

 

[CarolAnn856]

I haven’t seen a lot of people talking about it. All I see is blame being foisted on governors of a certain political persuasion.

Well, one reason is that it didn’t really play out that way. If BLM protests were to blame for the spikes, you would see major spikes everywhere there were protests, including NY and NJ. But, that isn’t the case. Not many protests in Texas, but a huge spike there.

 

[Skippy918]

Well, one reason is that it didn’t really play out that way. If BLM protests were to blame for the spikes, you would see major spikes everywhere there were protests, including NY and NJ. But, that isn’t the case. Not many protests in Texas, but a huge spike there.

Things I’ve read said the Texas cases are spiking because young people are gathering. Bars and river tubing were shut down again cause those places got packed. I’ve heard it’s similar in Florida where beaches are getting crowded and so are bars and nightclubs.

 

[Imzadi]

We aren’t supposed to talk about the protests as being a reason for the spikes.

Well, one reason is that it didn’t really play out that way. If BLM protests were to blame for the spikes, you would see major spikes everywhere there were protests, including NY and NJ. But, that isn’t the case.

Our hospitalization numbers in NY and NJ have actually gone DOWN. You can say the numbers are fudged and part of a conspiracy. But, it doesn't correlate with our states' reopenings.

George Floyd was murdered on May 25. The protests around the country started about May 30, after the Minneapolis DA said he has already looked at some evidence and didn't think some of the cops would be charged.

Parts of upstate NY state were already in Phases 1 & 2. NYC STILL had not reopened. Having been the COVID epicenter of the U.S. and then the world, because COVID spreads so easily here, due to the density of the population, the Gov. & Mayor have been extremely cautious about reopening. They would NEVER do anything to risk us becoming the epicenter once again. We were on track to open June 8. Yet protests broke out in ALL major cities throughout NY state, as well as in smaller cities & some villages. All 5 boroughs of NYC had protests in the thousands.

NYC stayed on track and we reopened to Phase 1 as the hospitalization numbers stayed the same or went down. Even though it was still a bit early to see if protestors would get sick. MORE protests happened E.V.E.R.Y. D.A.Y. STILL happening.

The Mayor warned us that Phase 2 might be delayed if we see spiking from the protests. But, the Gov. announced we'd go into Phase 2 on June 22 as planned. He said it was already 3 weeks of protests and we would have seen spiking. Our hospitalizations and rate of transmission were down to 1%. (Rate of transmission needs to go to 2.3-ish% to start spiking.)

Last Thursday, NY state hit an all time LOW. For the first time in a looong 100 days, we dipped BELOW 1000 COVID hospitalizations throughout the whole state of 19.1 million people! (The rate of transmission is still at only about 1.1%. And only 17 COVID deaths in the state.) Meanwhile, we are STILL having protests every day. Now they are "Occupying City Hall" and camping out all night.

Today is the 50th Anniversary of the Gay Pride March in NYC. The parade was officially cancelled. But, I'm sure LGBTQ people will still march. BLM already had invited them to march along with them a couple weeks ago.

NYC is on track to go to Phase 3 on July 6.

Meanwhile NJ had it's own protests throughout the state. They had a low 36 hospitalizations on Friday and about 6 COVID deaths. (When COVID first hit NYC, about 4 days later, NJ got it's first case. CT had one at about Day 6. Our states are that intertwined as many people work in one state & live in another.) CT is also in Phases 1-3. Not sure what their numbers are. But, it's on par with NY & NJ.

NY state went from being the world epicenter to one of the lowest rate of transmissions states in the U.S. now. NO WAY would the Gov. jeopardize that by fudging numbers and reopening, (especially during the protests,) as we have been seeing what a disaster that is worldwide, when countries reopen too soon.

The 3 Governors created a joint tri-state travel advisory last week: that people entering from 8 COVID high infection rate states must quarantine for 14 days. Infection rate criteria is: 10 new positive cases per 100,000 people on a 7-day rolling average, or at least 10% of the total population is COVID-19 positive on a 7-Day rolling average.

Current states as of today: AL, AR, AZ, FL, NC, SC, UT, WA, TX

IF we get spiking, it may be due to people sneaking in, not quarantining and infecting us. So the Gov is encouraging NYers to report quarantine violators. And in NY, if a person violates the quarantine, they may be subject to a judicial order and mandatory quarantine.
They will have to pay the costs of quarantine.
And fines:
$2000 for first violation.
$5000 for second violation.
Up to $10,000 if they cause harm.

 

[mnrose]

Minnesota, the CENTER ot the BLM protests and where they were ongoing the longest, has seen nothing but DECLINES in cases (despite continuing to do significant testing, probably easier access here than anywhere), DECLINES in hospitalizations and DECLINES in deaths (obviously, the overall number of deaths continues to increase, but the daily rate of deaths gets smaller and smaller). If there was to be a "spike" from the protests, we'd have seen it by now...at least SOME indication as it has been a month. I'll also add that we offered FREE testing to all protestors. Many many of them were tested. Nothing. Or "background" noise level of illness. Seriously, people need to get over this point. Show me the evidence that outbreaks are related to protests. I've seen outbreaks tied to house parties, restaurants, bars, churches....but none to protests. I could be wrong, but not our experience in Minnesota.

 

[SmallWorld71]

We aren’t supposed to talk about the protests as being a reason for the spikes.

I can only speak to local numbers, but here in Massachusetts area there have been large protests for weeks and no spike in the numbers.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nb...ton-state-hospital-redevelopment/2147467/?amp

 

[SamFaniam]

Not blaming you for that. Lived in Lubbock for 20 years. Longest I’ve lived in any place because my dad was in the Air Force. Came here for law school and stayed. Now as far as Saharan sand storms, I also live in Sicily for several years. I dealt with African sand storms approximately ten times a year. No blame there. I’m talking about the normal 10-20 times a year wind blows the dust from NM into TX every year. In fact at least in Sicily we could predict the times it would happen; with the NM wind there is no “normal” time frame. I was shopping home builders one day and it was cold and we got a NM windstorm preceded by some rain and I watched as it snowed mud. Fun times.

During Spring Break last year, we were driving back home from Santa Fe. We started out driving through a snowstorm that toppled 3 18 wheelers and then drove into a haboob that was truly scary. It knocked out the power in Roswell, where we had planned to stop. The only way we could tell where the road was was to follow the lights of the car in front of us. If we had been able to find a safe place to stop we would have. The highway was empty on either side though, except for the pump jacks and windmills. When we got home, I spent a lot of time vacuuming red dust out of my car even though we didn't open the doors until we stopped somewhere past the storm.

We live in the mountains, so the dust rarely reaches us, but Albuquerque gets haboobs. We blame them on Arizona!

 

[Heather07438]

Things I’ve read said the Texas cases are spiking because young people are gathering. Bars and river tubing were shut down again cause those places got packed. I’ve heard it’s similar in Florida where beaches are getting crowded and so are bars and nightclubs.

It's hard to understand the strategy. Sure, we need to try getting functions opened again but there are huge differences in risk levels. Closer prolonged proximity is a concern, and so is large gatherings. Avoiding the combo seems obvious. There is plenty we still CAN do where space can be utilized, or situations that may be a bit riskier but the head counts are very low.

Not sure if they hoped it'd be OK for younger people to congregate maskless because they're less at risk? The problem is they'll saturate their communities.

Or is is thought there's not sufficient reason to try slowing the rate of spread? This virus lingers quietly in the background until boom, it just takes off. It crawls at 10mph for months slowly building to 25mph, but once it gets there it goes 25 to 90mph in weeks. It's overwhelms. The other good reason to slow spread is holding off the masses from getting sick now because treatment keeps improving. That can make an enormous difference.

Risk is not binary. It's not on/off.

The attitudes of a community can be a bit contagious too. If they willingly try to make adjustments to reduce spread, you see that in the numbers. And it's really not as hard as many people want to see it. Reduce interactions, keep space where able, and wear masks in stores, public transit, or anywhere else people are close together. A few simple changes can keep an R0 around 1, without them you get the nightmare 2. 1 is a chain, 2 is a tree. They play out very differently.

 

[gotomu212]

One thing that I don't think has been posted about or explained, and is very important to know about is: the number of deaths (due to the nature of the Coronavirus) is always a lagging indicator.

Notice all the news is reporting NEW cases in these states. I saw a report today that the total of new cases nationwide for just yesterday is 40,000 new cases. Deaths due to the Coronavirus usually aren't instantaneous. Generally, the longer people are on ventilators, the more likely they will die.

We don't know yet how many of those 40,000 new cases will end up in hospitals on ventilators. Add to that, there are already people in hospitals for the Coronavirus, for the past weeks already, who may die. Add to that, these 40,000 people probably had some contact with others, who now also have the Coronavirus and still don't know they have it. And they in turn infect others. It may take several days to weeks to start getting the numbers of how many deaths there will be due to this recent upsurge of cases. That's yet to come.

If average people, and worse, politicians, are waiting to see what the number of deaths are before changing their actions or changing policies, it will already be too late. That train left the station weeks before.

Likewise, these 40,000 new cases were infected 5 - 14 days ago. People did something back then, in which they got infected.

I remember posting way back in February/March when cases were just starting to escalate here but people were saying our death rate was so low like .01% and we just had better hospitals. I shared how I’d talked to 2 professors at a party (this was when we could still go out- it seems so long ago) about how the death lags here are so substantial and when you’re in exponential growth comparing new deaths against new cases gives a skewed perspective since deaths today were new cases 2-6 weeks ago and exponential deaths will show in 2-6 weeks (3-4 being the average) from new case rapid growth.

I felt like I was arguing with a wall and then April came and deaths were so high even though we shut down....it feels so much like that again. I get humans have short memories, but this was 3 months ago! History is repeating itself and so many think this time will be different for some reason. It’s that feeling you have when seeing your child do or climb something and you know they are about to fall but you just can’t get there to stop it- that imminent crash feeling.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

One of the things that doesn't seem to get much discussion is that yes younger people do engage in riskier behaviors like being more out and about going to bars BUT they also comprise of a lot of the individuals working in higher risk settings too: retail, grocery, food industry (restaurant and fast food). It's not all or the other.

According to our health director at least some recent clusters in our county has been contact traced to people who have been working outside the county then come back here to their homes which is not at all surprising and works the opposite direction. I would be interested in having that information separated out for informational purposes though. That stuff has been going on all along but having more contact tracing makes it easier to track that spread rather than just working on the assumption.

As far as protests I don't believe they've stated it led to spikes in our cases but it did lead to at least some cases. In another thread I mentioned that the end effect of the protests would depend on place to place.

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

Well, one reason is that it didn’t really play out that way. If BLM protests were to blame for the spikes, you would see major spikes everywhere there were protests, including NY and NJ. But, that isn’t the case. Not many protests in Texas, but a huge spike there.

New York is still under a 1% positive testing rate. The protests were not responsible for any spread.

 

[Imzadi]

There was a study done by the National Bureau of Economic Research, which used data on protests from more than 300 of the largest US cities, and found no evidence that coronavirus cases grew in the weeks following the beginning of the protests.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/us/coronavirus-cases-protests-black-lives-matter-trnd/index.html

I wonder if it isn't the physiology of the protestors that kept the COVID-19 out of their lungs. The anger/outrage of the protestors, along with all the often fast shouting, being outdoors, keeping in constant movement or marching, sometimes being baton beaten or brutalized by the police they were protesting against, it kept the protestors pretty much in high adrenaline, higher cardio states. They were probably breathing quickly & shallowly. Maybe so quickly & shallowly that the COVID-19 didn't go deep and penetrate or get a chance to stick to their lungs?

Contrast that with an incident I heard a few months ago about a choir in Washington state, (I think?) There was something like 62 choir members. About 49 of them all came down with the Coronavirus, even though they were all socially distancing. (Mask wearing wasn't a thing yet.) They're all relaxed and happy, so their heart beat is regular. They are taking deeper breaths and letting it out slowly while singing. So the COVID got a chance to move slower in the lungs and stick.

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

The differences between the protest and the choir:

1. Masks/non masks
2. outdoor/indoor
3. Short exposure/long exposure. Protestors weren't standing around for hours with the same people

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Protestors weren't standing around for hours with the same people

Um yes they were. They were there for hours during the day, hours during the night. Our protests lasted something like 16/17 days longer than that maybe I lost track. Certainly not every single person but many went out there together and stayed together for a long time.

Not every protester was wearing masks not at all. Outdoor is probably the most salient aspect especially when you didn't have everyone wearing masks.

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

Um yes they were. They were there for hours during the day, hours during the night

That's not how protests work. You're constantly around different people.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

That's not how protests work. You're constantly around different people.

You're serious? You really don't think people stand around protesting with the same people next to them? Like they just stand there for 10 mins,20 mins and then say 'ope' time to go? Yeah ok maybe it's the infamous "it must be regional" because that's certainly not how protests worked in my area. I'll trust the people that were actually there, I'll trust the people interviewed too. They didn't just stand there short term and leave. They were there for hours usually different groups during the day than at night and I saw people going day after day there. Most of the most passionate people were there often with the same other passionate standing in the same general spots for hours on end with signs, with chants, with screams, etc. Marches tended to happen later on.

 

[roomthreeseventeen]

Not sure what to tell you. In New York, our protests were completely safe, and you were very rarely with the same people for more than a few minutes.

 

[kymom99]

You're serious? You really don't think people stand around protesting with the same people next to them? Like they just stand there for 10 mins,20 mins and then say 'ope' time to go? Yeah ok maybe it's the infamous "it must be regional" because that's certainly not how protests worked in my area. I'll trust the people that were actually there, I'll trust the people interviewed too. They didn't just stand there short term and leave. They were there for hours usually different groups during the day than at night and I saw people going day after day there. Most of the most passionate people were there often with the same other passionate standing in the same general spots for hours on end with signs, with chants, with screams, etc. Marches tended to happen later on.

I participated in a protest at our state capital over pensions a few years ago. We were constantly moving around to different areas as we met up with people we knew, or to get a better view. We did not stand in one place for very long even though we were there for several hours.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Not sure what to tell you. In New York, our protests were completely safe, and you were very rarely with the same people for more than a few minutes.

You can certainly say "that wasn't the experience in my area" but to say "that's not how it works" well I guess you need to school the peeps in my area on how to protest the right way at least the way you see it.

 

[Imzadi]

Or is is thought there's not sufficient reason to try slowing the rate of spread? This virus lingers quietly in the background until boom, it just takes off. It crawls at 10mph for months slowly building to 25mph, but once it gets there it goes 25 to 90mph in weeks. It's overwhelms. The other good reason to slow spread is holding off the masses from getting sick now because treatment keeps improving. That can make an enormous difference.

Unfortunately that doesn't make sense economically. The virus does spread quickly, but the recovery of the community is too slow. It took NY state 42 days to reach the apex. Then the virus plateaued for several days. (It could have continued to rise after that, spike higher, or go down.) It started going down. But it was an excruciatingly long 69 days down the mountain. Plus, depending on what people did, they could have spiked us with more cases anywhere along those 69 days and extended things out several more weeks. The economy would have been shut down that whole time.

Second, we are hearing reports that some of the hospitals in the states with these spikes are close to being overwhelmed. I've seen news interviews where many of the traveling nurses that came to help us in NYC are now in AZ and TX. They are saying where they are now is exactly like another "NYC" for them, with cases close to capacity. People can't get proper treatment when there are not enough beds or ventilators or healthcare workers available.

In order for a community to reach herd immunity, the population needs to be about 65%-70% infected. NYC only reached 26%. And we lost way too many people.