Spring Direct Incentives 2/9-4/27

[eticketplease]

I think it will be interesting to see where it lands once sold out.

I think it is going to stabilize around $120. We know that DVD has already taken a contract via ROFR at $98. Who knows what has happened at other brokers.

Now, as time goes on, maybe owners hold more resorts because of the restrictions and just do the whole alternating more than before?

Or split stays become more popular?

Hoping the $120 average stays when we will need more and more points for the larger accommodations as the family grows.

It will certainly be interesting which one will happen more. I know you like split stays but we would be in the camp that will alternate resorts every trip instead of dealing with all of the moving as we like to unpack and not have to worry about it until we are leaving Disney.

 

[Chili327]

Real talk: How many new resorts you think you’ll see within 10 years?

Counting Lakeshore? And other expansions?
I think probably Lakeshore and around 3 more new builds/conversions/expansions, give or take 1 (so 2-4 more is what I would bet on).
1-2 WDW possibly 3 if they choose expansions, maybe 1 offsite but looks doubtful, maybe 1 DL towards the end of the 10 years/ DL Forward project

They are putting a lot of money into and expanding the parks and seem to be leaning on DVC pretty heavily lately

Id say that sound about right, but i'm counting conversions, etc, so maybe they should be called "new contracts" in that sense, i'd say 3 new to WDW including LSL, & 1 new in DLR.

But they’d have to sell those points all over again. That takes time. It’s fun to think about this stuff but it’s so true the decision makers on this issue aren’t even applying to the college program yet lol. Will be interesting to see what happens. If they hold the line on never extending a property again, they will lose a breathtaking amount of customers all at once.

Yea, they'd need to have shovels in the ground by about 2035, & conversion plans by 2038, to not have a mad rush in 2042.

Lakeshore
Epcot Main Gate

I don’t see another Disneyland hotel. There’s no room and the guest profile is so different there. The land needs to be used for the theme park expansion and parking. They could repurpose Pixar I suppose but they just re-themed it. But if Disneyland hotel sells out and there’s a big DVC demand, it could happen.

I also think the Villains entrance hotel talk is silly. This is the Magic Kingdom. Where dreams come true. The castle is the icon for the whole brand. They aren’t going to have there one and only entrance gate hotel in the bad guys land. It’s not meant to be the focal point of the theme park.

I think you're wrong on both counts.

 

[eticketplease]

The key is that you will really be "stuck" at RIV... but you are not really "stuck" at SSR or OKW. Even in 2042 you will still be able to book 7 properties (VGC, OKW, SSR, CCV, Poly, AKV and BLT) which provides a whole lot more rooms. Theres is value in having options specially for last minute bookings.

Regarding ROFR I've never bought the whole DVC will ROFR to sell directly at a profit. Heck there is a reason most resale for $50-60 less than direct. They have a limited budget and there is no unlimited demand for direct points especially when competing with other resorts they will try to push (LSL).

I certainly agree with you about the options that SSR/OKW provide but as @Tatebeck pointed out you are also "stuck" with no place to sleep past 2042/2054/2057 if that is the contract you hold.

 

[VGCgroupie]

No personal experience, but I would think the lines for the skyliner would be insane.

When we stayed at POP it was so nice. Room to butt in seat on Skyliner in under 5 minutes. Granted this was awhile back.

 

[airjay75]

I think a significant factor as to how many new resorts we see is how big and how long the they take to sell out. I’d bet LSL takes about 5 years. That leaves about another 10 years to fill until 2042. So, I’d bet on at least another 2 between those.

 

[eticketplease]

I'm willing to bet most people don't study the availability charts or even the point charts typically.

Wow even though the points went up in 2027 I will have no problem booking the value studio at Jambo. Heck I don't have to own there I can just buy 24 OTUP and book 3 nights in September without even touching mine!!

 

[tx911]

When we stayed at POP it was so nice. Room to butt in seat on Skyliner in under 5 minutes. Granted this was awhile back.

I would not have guessed that! Definitely sets Pop and AoA apart from the All Stars

 

[Genie+]

Real talk: How many new resorts you think you’ll see within 10 years?

I think another good angle to look at is how many new points DVC is selling at WDW each year. For a while I think they were hitting 2 million points sold a year, like 2010 to 2020. The last 3 years they’ve sold somewhere between 1.7m to 1.9m direct WDW points each year, most of them ‘new’ points from active resorts that are adding inventory.

Are they hoping to sell at least another 20m points at WDW over the next decade? Or would they be happy with 15m? I don’t know. But what’s left of PVB and RIV is under 5m points, then whatever the CFW and LSL add, I’m thinking 2 more new options roll out within the next 10 years. My bet is another smaller roll-in to existing resort, like 2m at YC for example, and also another big project that has a park gate, north of VGF with access into MK.

 

[eticketplease]

Expiring resorts that are offsite, but will likely (IMO) still affect SAP owners negatively: HHI/VB

Not a great value when you compare to cash rates (Esp Fri & Sat OUCH) but we love using SAP to go to HHI. It will certainly be missed.

 

[eticketplease]

I’m calm!! Promise!!! (Sitting here breathing into a paper bag while I type this) lol.

 

[eticketplease]

I think a significant factor as to how many new resorts we see is how big and how long the they take to sell out. I’d bet LSL takes about 5 years. That leaves about another 10 years to fill until 2042. So, I’d bet on at least another 2 between those.

You think that soon? I thought LSL is supposed to be larger than RIV and if what we all think is true with the cabins and LSL being in the same trust the dues will be much higher as well. Hopefully the lazy river will happen though as that will certainly attract some interest as BCV continues towards expiration.

 

[Brian Noble]

I thought LSL is supposed to be larger than RIV

The entire thing is, but it is mixed DVC and hotel. I think it's roughtly Boardwalk-ish. If so, the DVC side would be between one and one-point-four RIVs in terms of keys. How that translates to points is anyone's guess.

 

[patm95]

At one time wasn’t there a rumor of a dvc resort being built around villains land with direct access to MK?

 

[airjay75]

You think that soon? I thought LSL is supposed to be larger than RIV and if what we all think is true with the cabins and LSL being in the same trust the dues will be much higher as well. Hopefully the lazy river will happen though as that will certainly attract some interest as BCV continues towards expiration.

My very quick thinking was that RIV probably would have only taken about 5 years to sell out had COVID never happened and had VGF/CFW/PIT not been properties on sale at the same time. As best we can tell, LSL goes on sale just as RIV is selling out, and then PIT is sold out within 6-9 months after LSL opens. Then, it’s just all LSL all the time for WDW DVC sales.

 

[eticketplease]

My very quick thinking was that RIV probably would have only taken about 5 years to sell out had COVID never happened and had VGF/CFW/PIT not been properties on sale at the same time. As best we can tell, LSL goes on sale just as RIV is selling out, and then PIT is sold out within 6-9 months after LSL opens. Then, it’s just all LSL all the time for WDW DVC sales.

That certainly makes sense with less competition esp if CFW & LSL are in the same trust then they pretty much are one in the same I would assume.

 

[Cfabar1]

I received sheets from my guide... they just don't include the interest rates.../monthly payments

not a big deal for me since I wouldn't go that way in the past...