Shooting holes in the "buy where you want to stay" argument.

[Alexander]

We choose to stay at BCV on trips when we know we won't be spending a lot of time at the parks. We do like to spend a lot of time at the resort pool. We also choose to stay here in the summer when we do a ton of swimming due to the hot, hot days.

IMO between the pool and the location, this resort is popular. Beca, I too like the theming. I love the beach and the whole seaside feel.

We did not however, choose this as our home resort because we preferred to buy directly through Disney. Our home is now SSR, and I am thrilled! We know that we can always try for the BCV and if we can't get it, oh well! We really like OKW and VWL as well. The only place we really aren't interested in staying is BWV, and I really don't know why.

dcfromva,
Thank you for your breakdown of the value of the points over time.
The figures per point for the life of SSR are off just a little for our contract, as the current rate of $95 can be dropped to $85 without giving up anything. (You don't have to sell back your first year's points--through Feb 28th however). For our contract, I'm getting $5.55 per point.

 

[dcfromva]

The figures per point for the life of SSR are off just a little for our contract, as the current rate of $95 can be dropped to $85 without giving up anything. (You don't have to sell back your first year's points--through Feb 28th however). For our contract, I'm getting $5.55 per point.

Alexander,
That is a really good deal--especially compared to the other contracts.
-DC

 

[sjdisneywedding]

OK to disagree, it's all speculation anyway. But I bet we see a BCV go through in the next year for around $75 pp or less. Disney doesn't make any money on buying back the points, they do it to keep prices up and those thinking about buying from seeing resale as too good a deal.
If you don't think certain resorts and/or unit types aren't already a major issue, you haven't been reading the boards. 3 BR, HH summer, BWV standard view, on property in December are already difficult times. And even if it might come through later wait list, will that work for you. But it will if you bought on property and followed my advice or making the right reservation at your home resort then trying to change over at 7 months out.

yep for BWV you cant even get standard view in jan. last year i called day by day at 7 month window for standard and they were already gone.

 

[rinkwide]

...I bet we see a BCV go through in the next year for around $75 pp or less...

I'll take that bet. What do you want to wager? No limit.

 

[NMW]

I agree with Beca saying that original BCV owners will not "value" their points the way people willing to pay almost $90 a point resale will. The resale buyers will probably use the 11 mos window most of the time. I know I would if I paid that much for them. We have friends who own BCV and bought it because that was what Disney was selling at the time (I believe they may have been able to buy HH also). Anyway, they have only stayed at BCV once. They always stay at OKW. They don't even book BCV at 11 mos and then switch to OKW at 7 mos! They just wait until 7 mos to call for OKW. It's funny because 3 of their family members also bought at the same time (BCV) and they also only stay at OKW. They don't belong to these boards and I doubt they even realize how desired their home resort is!

 

[Dean]

I'll take that bet. What do you want to wager? No limit.

I'd rather just do it for fun, I haven't had much luck collecting on all the meals and the like I've won here over the years plus I believe I owe someone a dollar.

 

[Mooobooks]

Here's a real good reason to buy where you want to stay: Disney has the right at any time to discontinue our ability to stay at any resort other than the home resort we purchased at.
So, you BETTER like your home resort, because that could be the ONLY place you might be staying for until 2042.
It could happen at any time and without any reason being given.

 

[disneyberry]

<font face="times" size="+0">Some future dues calculations that address the BCV dues vs. VB dues issue:

In recent years (2002, 2003, 2004, 2005), the average dues increase across all resorts has been about 4.7% per year.

Using a 5% estimated increase figure, when I forecast out to 2042 ALL the dues that an owner would pay, here are the numbers for BCV vs. VB. Please note that all this is calculated ignoring the time value of money completely, so the numbers are using <i>today</i>'s dollar.

For a 150 point Contract

BCV owner would pay $98,627 in total dues over the years 2005 - 2042.
VBR owner would pay $112,485 in total dues over the years 2005 - 2042.

This is a difference of $13,858. "That is not a small number!", exclaims Strongbad. (Sorry, couldn't resist)

Also, for any potential buyers following this thread, remember that the "Buy where you want to stay" advice is only <i>one</i> of many other tidbits of advice that you should consider before making the purchase.</font>

 

[jade1]

NMW...We have friends who own BCV and bought it because that was what Disney was selling at the time (I believe they may have been able to buy HH also). Anyway, they have only stayed at BCV once. They always stay at OKW. They don't even book BCV at 11 mos and then switch to OKW at 7 mos! They just wait until 7 mos to call for OKW. It's funny because 3 of their family members also bought at the same time (BCV) and they also only stay at OKW. They don't belong to these boards and I doubt they even realize how desired their home resort is"

In this case they should sell today at $90 and spend the money on an OKW resale, turn 700 points into a 1000 for free as the OP suggetsed. You may want to tell them since they are your "friends".

We did a BCV add on for Spring Break only when it opened. In our opinion (and it is a long winter here) it is by far the best Spring Break WDW DVC Resort and worth more per point to reserve safely (although we blew it this year and are now on the wait list-wont happen again). The sand bottom PRIVATE pool, the sand beach facing the BW, walk to EPCOT etc. The high demand for this resort and subsequent price per point rise is not at all surprising .

 

[JimFitz]

Here's a real good reason to buy where you want to stay: Disney has the right at any time to discontinue our ability to stay at any resort other than the home resort we purchased at.
So, you BETTER like your home resort, because that could be the ONLY place you might be staying for until 2042.
It could happen at any time and without any reason being given.

I see DVC enacting the 11/10 month window long before they force owners to stay at their home resort. Honestly, DVC will probably never do this.

 

[NMW]

NMW...We have friends who own BCV and bought it because that was what Disney was selling at the time (I believe they may have been able to buy HH also). Anyway, they have only stayed at BCV once. They always stay at OKW. They don't even book BCV at 11 mos and then switch to OKW at 7 mos! They just wait until 7 mos to call for OKW. It's funny because 3 of their family members also bought at the same time (BCV) and they also only stay at OKW. They don't belong to these boards and I doubt they even realize how desired their home resort is"

In this case they should sell today at $90 and spend the money on an OKW resale, turn 700 points into a 1000 for free as the OP suggetsed. You may want to tell them since they are your "friends".

We did a BCV add on for Spring Break only when it opened. In our opinion (and it is a long winter here) it is by far the best Spring Break WDW DVC Resort and worth more per point to reserve safely (although we blew it this year and are now on the wait list-wont happen again). The sand bottom PRIVATE pool, the sand beach facing the BW, walk to EPCOT etc. The high demand for this resort and subsequent price per point rise is not at all surprising .

I think I am going to suggest it to them when I see them in March. They are afraid of the whole ROFR/resale process though. They were very "concerned" when we told them we were buying resale (BWV) and not through Disney . It's like they don't trust anyone but Disney, specificly THEIR guide at Disney! Good luck with your waitlist!

 

[DrBond007]

Is this good advice anymore? With BCV near $89, VB around $63, and OKW around $73 I can't help but be skeptical. I think BCV is the poster-child of irrational exuberance, and overvalued IMO. 200 points at BCV is now around $18,000. You could get 290 points at VB !! or 250 at OKW for the same money. Mr. BCV buyer: I could buy VB now and much of the year spend a full week longer than YOU, or better yet that weekend you wish you had points for, at YOUR home resort for the same money!

Ponder this:

1: Again, that's ONE FULL WEEK extra in a studio at most resorts 8 months out of the year!
2: That's a very nice upgrade to a (much) bigger crib if you'll only go one week anyway. Think about it.
3: Most people don't go at peak, from what I can glean on this board there are very few times during the year when the 7 month window won't work, even if a little white-knuckle wait-lisiting is involved. With SSR and OKW how often will there not be anyplace at WDW with space at 7 months out? Not everyone is picky about where they stay, so long as it is on-site. I think the addition of the massive SSR changes the value proposition for a place like VB (or even OKW) making it more likely to transfer in to WDW, in style as well...
4: Disney isn't going to do away with resort swapping, it's a huge selling point. They may tamper with lead times (possibly in favor of swappers!), but is it a big deal? I don't buy the scare tactics on this issue....
5. Add a free week at HH or VB or some time at an Interval locale for free every year in lieu of 2 weeks at WDW!
6: You could profit renting VB points with ressies at the 7 month window.
7. That's the Friday/sat night stay most of us have to avoid as of now so as to spare our precious points!

Unless you plan to go at peak times I just don't see it. If a couple on a budget came to me right now I'd advise to stay away from BCV and get the same # of points for $5400 less by buying at VB or $3400 less and buy at OKW (undervalued). I'm sure there are other arguments on my side as well, and I don't mind getting roughed up a bit either (as usual).

Ciao,
Ricapito

Are you personally planning on following this advice with your own purchase, or just advising others this way? Are you also offering those whom you advice caution regarding the downside of your advice?

 

[arcruiser]

We went thru the same type analysis that dcfromva has provided. Over time remaining, and factoring in purchase price and dues, SSR looked to be the best buy... We started out looking for an OKW contract.

And I also agree with cruise-o-matic's thinking. We will probably try to book at OKW, VWL, BWV and BCV sometimes (we have not stayed at BWV or VWL yet)..... but we'll always be perfectly happy to stay at SSR.

SO, we bought where we don't mind staying for the next 49 years. And as a bonus, it seemed to me to be the bargain. Our second choice would have been OKW - and more than likely staying there in the future will not be a problem.

I don't understand why BWV is not enjoying the price demand that BCV is. But, I guess it is, to a certain degree. The two tiered room rates put you at Epcot for OKW prices.

Oh well. I just don't get the draw of SAB, I guess.

 

[MikeSquared]

All I care about is that I will not have a problem reserving BCV for the Epcot F&WF over the next 35 years. I like walking back home after Illuminations with a fresh tear in my eye, the Music still in my head, then being able to see the Epcot ball from my window before I have a Disney Dream.

 

[arcruiser]

Dang, MikeSquared, you keep that up and we'll hafta do a BCV add-on!

 

[DrBond007]

I don't understand why BWV is not enjoying the price demand that BCV is.

I think many may think BCV is nicer than BWV with the themeing, bigger dining table, pool areas, closer parking lot, closer elevators, interior spaces, and access to restaraunts when it is raining, close marina, etc. The smaller size may also contribute to the higher demand. BWV does have other advantages over BCV, one being the community room and GV availability.

 

[crisi]

I think its interesting how many more BCV resales are on the market now that the price is high. Apparently, there are a number of people willing to cash out - and will be replaced by people who value BCV as home more.

DrBond007- one more reason, BCVs has only been open a few years. BWVs has been open longer. BCVs isn't far enough into its "cycle of ownership" to have really started turning over - making for less supply.

 

[ricapito]

Who started this mess anyway?

At any rate, the long term dues analysis is a great argument for OKW more than anything. What is the average length of ownership though? I'm sure for folks on this board its long-term, but what about the other 95% of DVC owners? But for someone in it for a dozen years or so that analysis isn't as effective...

I repeat, I had no idea dues were so different among resorts. I never thought much about them. I would probably not advise someone to buy VB if they were in it for the long-term, I'd advise they buy OKW. I'd also tell them if they only go in peak season every year to buy where they must stay if it is important to them. But any any rate one things for sure, I wouldn't advise anyone to buy BCV at $90 a point, I like SAB as much as anyone but that resort is overpriced IMO....

 

[robinb]

I want to move away from dues and resales and respond to the "Most people don't go at peak" comment. That must be true as there are more "non peak" times than "peak" times on the calendar. However, I think that an individual family's vacation needs/wants will change over the course of their DVC ownership.

Take us, for an example. We bought an OKW resale 8 years ago when we were DINKS. We based our purchase on our vacation habits when we could go anytime and didn't worry about the 11 month/7 month window. Christmas at WDW was a nightmare, not a treat. Then, we had a child. While she was in pre-school we still went anytime we wanted, but we were able to go to Epcot for New Year's Eve 99/00 and we were hooked. So, we needed a contract near Epcot and we picked up a BWV resale. Now that my DD is in school, we can only go when school is not in session: Christmas Break (peak-Premier Season), Spring Break (peak-Premier Season) and Summer (hot and semi-peak - Magic Season). I use our 11 month window every year for Christmas/NYE.

Peak v/s non-peak may not seem like a valid decision factor now, but you never know what next year may bring. In 8 short years we went from wonderful quiet trips in May and October to jam-packed trips in December and August. Just an FYI: I just booked our August trip in a BCV studio last week, only 2 weeks into the 7 month window. Member Services told me that 8/15 & 8/16 were in very low supply and encouraged me to book right away when I checked on availability. So yes, I made a reservation at BCV at the 6.5 month mark, but it's not clear that a studio would be there for me at the 6.25 month mark.

 

[crisi]

I did statistical trend analysis on dues last year using Minitab. No resort has been open long enough for statistical confidence, but OKW does have a steeper trend line than any other resort and IF THINGS CONTINUE AS THEY HAVE FOR RESORTS OPEN 5 YEARS OR LONGER, OKW will eventually surpass BWVs in dues cost.

I wouldn't make long term decisions based on this, or the "OKW has always had lower dues." I think "buy where you won't be disappointed to stay" is still the best advice going - if you'll be disappointed if SAB isn't available to you, then judge whether you are $20 per point plus dues disappointed - maybe you are - maybe you aren't. If you have a lot of money, maybe this is nothing, if you are scrambling to afford DVC in the first place, $20 a point buys a lot of disappointment. However, If an extra $1 a point per year in dues is killing your budget, I wonder why you are taking relatively extravagent vacations at WDW. We'd all do "better finacially" long term to bank the money we spend on our Disney habit instead of going at all.