Shooting holes in the "buy where you want to stay" argument.

[Dean]

Only $140 yearly difference in dues between VB and BCV on a 200 point contract. Not fatal to my argument, but worth weighing no doubt...

The problem isn't just the dues difference, which is likely to escalate over time BTW. The other issue is you're giving up the chance to reserve at 11 months out or at least before 7 months. And for some times that's already imperative. Still, it's worth considering, especially if you don't want a large number of points or want to stay at VB part of the time. HH is likely a better choice for off site ownership though due to the high demand there for summer.

 

[sjdisneywedding]

The OP's point is a good one. If you can book into any DVC at seven months out, why not buy the cheaper one, like Vero? We bought at BWV through DVC and then OKW through the TS Store, and got a good deal. We can plan 11 months out, in fact, we prefer to do so because with kids in school, we have to compete with prime time more often than not.

I guess because you CANT book into just any resort at 7 months out. Your options may be limited depending on what exactly you are looking for. If ou are very flexible as far as times of year, resort, and room type then you are probably ok, but if you need or want anything specific you might want to have a booking advantage.

 

[crisi]

Do you really think people willing to spend nearly $20 a point more aren't going to be taking advantage of the booking window? This is probably a good sign that BCV will be much harder to book at seven months in the future. If people buying resales were willing to stay at OKW, it would be a no-brainer to buy OKW. They are spending more for the booking window, a pretty good indication they will use it.

There will always be some availability at seven months - people who cancel their reservations. BCV owners who want to try a different resort or who trade out. But with the owners willing to pay the premium, that's a good indication that they really want that resort. And with more non-owner members, the competition for the relatively few open rooms at seven months may be fierce. I don't bother to get breakfast reservations at CRT -- too much of a hassle. I don't want to be calling day by day at seven months either.

edited for clarification

 

[Shamus]

I think it's reasonable to think that all DVC properties including BCV will be available for the low to mid $70 pp for some time to come and I doubt they'll ever get much over that, at least for the ones that expire in 2042. They may continue to edge up for a few years but at some point they will level off and begin to fall. How soon, fast and how far they will fall depends on a lot of factors we don't have the info for yet.

Dean,

I have to disagree with you here. As I have stated before on the board, there is a very important factor that drives the resale value for the majority of DVC resorts. That FACTOR is the Future Price Disney charges for their Hotel Rooms. The resale value of BWV, BCV and VWL are particularly going to be heavily tied to this. In my opinion, the vast majority of purchasers use the ROOM cost analysis in determining the value of DVC. If we see the return of pre 9/11 anual price increases at WDW resorts I would expect to see Resale prices for DVC I units to continue to rise for quite some time ( at least another 20 years). Even at current increases I would expect the value to hold for 10-15 years.

One of my favorite lines regarding resale prices is ..............Disney's ROFR MAY be holding the bottom for Resales, but their current sales ARE capping the Top. And I think the $88 contract supports that theory.

I have to agree with comments about specific needs and also those about the flexability of BWV. I think you hit the nail on the head with those two issues. In my opinion "Buying where you plan to stay" is still good sound advice. For some it may not be the best financial move, but for most it will help to ensure they get what they paid for.

Shamus

 

[ricapito]

Quote: As DVC grows, certain resorts and times will be only available to owners at that resort, I think we're there now for some options.

I disagree, if Disney keeps adding appealing DVC propertiess with somewhat different value propositions I think just the opposite- that folks are going to want to mix it up and stay somewhere new from year to year, but likely with a favorite spot. Why the presumption VWL or BCV will be the favorites forever and just get tougher and tougher? Poly, Contemporary et al certainly will have the ability to usurp them in theory if they go DVC.

As for already getting hard to book, I just don't see the proof??? Aside from last minute trip decisions. I think the instnaces of people having a hard time at 7 months out are scarce. And how many don't get in after being wait-listed? I can see problems within 90 days out but at 7 months I just don't buy it is that big of a problem today aside from a precious few weeks of the year...

 

[MrsG]

I love the peace of mind at being able to book BCV 11 mos out during Christmas week, Feb. break, Easter week, or anytime in the summer and get my 2 br 2 queens without worrying. I'm a teacher so we're stuck with peak times.

No regets here.

 

[Beca]

Do you really think people willing to spend nearly $20 a point more aren't going to be taking advantage of the booking window? This is probably a good sign that BCV will be much harder to book at seven months in the future. If people buying resales were willing to stay at OKW, it would be a no-brainer to buy OKW. They are spending more for the booking window, a pretty good indication they will use it.

There will always be some availability at seven months - people who cancel their reservations. BCV owners who want to try a different resort or who trade out. But with the owners willing to pay the premium, that's a good indication that they really want that resort. And with more non-owner members, the competition for the relatively few open rooms at seven months may be fierce. I don't bother to get breakfast reservations at CRT -- too much of a hassle. I don't want to be calling day by day at seven months either.

edited for clarification

crisi...I couldn't agree more!! Here's the factor people are not taking into consideration right now. For the last couple of years, BCV HAS been selling for more than other resorts (in the recent past, it has been for a LOT more). That means that the "new" owners who are buying there are not doing so, "because it is what DVC was offering" (as was the case with the original owners), but because they LOVE it, and are willing to pay more for it. These people WILL value these points differently than the original owners did.

And, Shamus is correct....the cost of BCV is NOT being driven by ROFR right now, but by competition for the "elusive" contracts (ex: the contract that I am going thru ROFR on right now had 150 callers wanting it...I was just lucky enough to get it first). I don't think you can say that many other resorts are selling "well above" ROFR.

I know that if I am ever in a need to rent my BCV points, I will DEFINITELY try renting them for $1-2 above the going rate (if the points would give the renter the "home advantage")...and, I BET you they will go!!!

But, it seems that, in time...as more resales are sold and purchased, you will have a larger percent of the population at BCV who paid more, and will be using that home resortadvantage to stay there on a regular basis.

There may come a time when, in order to get BCV you either have to: 1) be an owner, or 2) trade points with an owner before the 7 month window opens. That could have ALL kinds of ramifications for renting/trading.

I also think if DVC comes up with different pricing for BCV/VWL/BWV...that could have some interesting ramifications as well (i.e. the rental market may show an increase in points rental for those three locations if the ressies would be outside the 7 month window).

I know some people may be bothered by the theory that the differential of the prices between the resale resorts could impact the "usability" of your ownerhip...but, I seriously think it could, and possibly will happen. The truth is, if I get my BCV points, I will value them differently than my OKW or BWV...although I LOVE both of those places. My BCV ones would be the LAST I would sell if I ran into financial difficulty, the LAST I would rent out, and they would be the points that I would ALWAYS use to plan those trips that I feel are "set in stone".

JMHO,

Beca

 

[kathleena]

I think, as with most theory questions discussed on the boards, that there are many ways to look at the issue and therefore will be just as many opinions and guesses and theory.

I could argue that DVC could stop the practice of allowing resort owners to book into other resorts, just as easily as someone could say they could change the booking priority to 1 month instead of 4 or 7 months instead of 4.

It's all in how you look at it, what your passions are, what history tells us etc.

As for myself - the primary reason I say buy where you want to stay is so that people are not disillusioned or disappointed if they buy say SSR thinking they will always stay at BCV during prime weeks and then they can't get what they want at 7 months! Plus, some of the people asking are already worrying about whether or not they will be able to get in a 7 months. Why buy something knowing it could be an issue and then worry about it all the time? Makes no sense to me to spend all that money and not get exactly what you want in the first place.

Ultimately, it matters not to me what DVC does - I took my own advice and bought where I want to stay!

Oh, and Beca - If I ever want to sell BCV, I'm calling you first! I want to know that they are going to be treasured! LOL

 

[Beca]

I could argue that DVC could stop the practice of allowing resort owners to book into other resorts, just as easily as someone could say they could change the booking priority to 1 month instead of 4 or 7 months instead of 4.


Oh, and Beca - If I ever want to sell BCV, I'm calling you first! I want to know that they are going to be treasured! LOL

I thought it was in the POS that owners would have "at least a 1 month advantage". Can someone correct me if I am wrong on this?

And Kathleena...anytime!!! I would CERTAINLY treasure them!!!



Beca

 

[rinkwide]

...I just don't buy it is that big of a problem today...

That's correct today. However, when DVD adds an extra 30% to overall membership by cramming them into a property that is widely considered to be more remote to the parks and offer less amenities...

Of course future developments may change this near-future scenario but those are uncertain and a long way off. I just don't see why anyone would risk dissapointment when you can simply buy where you want to stay.

 

[STEVEMED]

It is what it is.....bcv is selling for more .....supply and demand

 

[dcfromva]

Just going by costs, I think I might be more tempted to buy OKW, if the 11month booking window didn't make any difference. Excluding the new SSR, the dues at OKW historically seem to be significantly lower than the others. In the long run, the dues will have the biggest impact to the cost of ownership.

Just taking the prices in the original post of BCV near $89, VB around $63, and OKW around $73 and assuming the UYs are the same and there are 37 years left on each of the contracts, I come up with the following per point costs:

(OKW 73/37= 1.97 per point per year, VB 63/ 37= 1.70 per point per year and BCV 89/ 37= 2.41 per point per year)

Add in the Dues:
(Saratoga Springs $3.82
Old Key West $3.86
Hilton Head Island $4.03
Beach Club Villas $4.26
Wilderness Lodge $4.35
Boardwalk Villas $4.41
Vero Beach $4.86)


OKW 1.97 + 3.86 = $5.83
VRB 1.70 + 4.86 = $6.56
BCV 2.41 + 4.26 = $6.67

(Total includes 2005 dues and price per point per year)

If you do the same type of calculation on SSR at $95.00 per point assuming 49 years left on the contract: $1.94 per point per year plus $3.82 dues = $5.76
Of course, the SSR dues are currently subsidized--no telling where they will settle, but I would suppose they wouldn't be that much different than OKW...

-DC

 

[WDWLVR]

I just know that years from now I think we will still be very happy spending time at Boardwalk. If we can use other resorts between now and then great. If not we'll be happy at the Boardwalk. That's why we bought where we wanted to stay most.

 

[ricapito]

this is a great long-term analysis and does indeed nicely rebut my thinking...again as I mentioned I never knew there was such a dues disparity!

 

[cruise-o-matic]

The problem isn't just the dues difference, which is likely to escalate over time BTW. The other issue is you're giving up the chance to reserve at 11 months out or at least before 7 months. And for some times that's already imperative. Still, it's worth considering, especially if you don't want a large number of points or want to stay at VB part of the time. HH is likely a better choice for off site ownership though due to the high demand there for summer.

One of the reasons we bought HH is b/c we live in NC and plan to alternate summers at HH, so we'll need the 11 month window. Plus HH has some of the lowest dues and lower price per point than WDW resorts. Dues are actually around $3.88 since they overestimated 2004 taxes (and they probably overestimated 2005 too).

With the growth of SSR and size of OKW, we figure we could always book 7 months out since we have no desire to go to WDW during Thanksgiving, Christmas or Spring Break. Of course we may try for BCV/BWX/VWL first and may have to waitlist, we'll be happy just the same with OKW/SSR.

Now, one of the things hampering VB is everyone is waiting for the "shoe drop", ie, how much is the hurricane assesment going to be. I think once that is settled, VB will start selling agian and the prices will probably be adjusted taking the assessment into account. I guess the question will be what floor will DVC set as the ROFR price? The demand for VB is just not there and who would want to buy VB from DVC at $89 when it's so much cheaper resale? Maybe they would have to go to a 3 tier resale pricing system (or 4 tier with BCV being the top tier).

But once the dust settles, it may not be a bad deal to buy VB if you can get a contract with subsidized dues. http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=483351 That way you get a combination of lowest priced points and lowest dues.

If I were buying BCV points at $88-90 points, I would definitely use the home resort advantage and book at the 11 month mark. Otherwise you're wasting your $$. I can also see BCV owners charging much more to rent their points and wouldn't be surprised to see points going in the $15-18 rental range.

Oh yeah, post #500

Gotta go watch my Tar Heels play B'ball now.

 

[lovwdwalot]

I too think that in the near future you will see some people asking for $14 to $15 a point to rent out BCV, and the only reason for it is because (1) the resort is so close to Epocot and (2) the pool (SAB). But I have a feeling it's the pool that is making this resort so hot to have. If you look at past post all you read about is how cool the pool is, (which it is)and this is what is driving the the price up so much.JMHO.

 

[ricapito]

I too think that in the near future you will see some people asking for $14 to $15 a point to rent out BCV, and the only reason for it is because (1) the resort is so close to Epocot and (2) the pool (SAB). But I have a feeling it's the pool that is making this resort so hot to have. If you look at past post all you read about is how cool the pool is, (which it is)and this is what is driving the the price up so much.JMHO.

But realistically, for most folks who want to see the parks, how much is a few hours a year in a "special" pool really worth? It has a limit...

 

[Dean]

Dean,

I have to disagree with you here. As I have stated before on the board, there is a very important factor that drives the resale value for the majority of DVC resorts. That FACTOR is the Future Price Disney charges for their Hotel Rooms. The resale value of BWV, BCV and VWL are particularly going to be heavily tied to this. In my opinion, the vast majority of purchasers use the ROOM cost analysis in determining the value of DVC. If we see the return of pre 9/11 anual price increases at WDW resorts I would expect to see Resale prices for DVC I units to continue to rise for quite some time ( at least another 20 years). Even at current increases I would expect the value to hold for 10-15 years.

One of my favorite lines regarding resale prices is ..............Disney's ROFR MAY be holding the bottom for Resales, but their current sales ARE capping the Top. And I think the $88 contract supports that theory.

I have to agree with comments about specific needs and also those about the flexability of BWV. I think you hit the nail on the head with those two issues. In my opinion "Buying where you plan to stay" is still good sound advice. For some it may not be the best financial move, but for most it will help to ensure they get what they paid for.

Shamus

OK to disagree, it's all speculation anyway. But I bet we see a BCV go through in the next year for around $75 pp or less. Disney doesn't make any money on buying back the points, they do it to keep prices up and those thinking about buying from seeing resale as too good a deal.

Quote: As DVC grows, certain resorts and times will be only available to owners at that resort, I think we're there now for some options.

I disagree, if Disney keeps adding appealing DVC propertiess with somewhat different value propositions I think just the opposite- that folks are going to want to mix it up and stay somewhere new from year to year, but likely with a favorite spot. Why the presumption VWL or BCV will be the favorites forever and just get tougher and tougher? Poly, Contemporary et al certainly will have the ability to usurp them in theory if they go DVC.

As for already getting hard to book, I just don't see the proof??? Aside from last minute trip decisions. I think the instnaces of people having a hard time at 7 months out are scarce. And how many don't get in after being wait-listed? I can see problems within 90 days out but at 7 months I just don't buy it is that big of a problem today aside from a precious few weeks of the year...

If you don't think certain resorts and/or unit types aren't already a major issue, you haven't been reading the boards. 3 BR, HH summer, BWV standard view, on property in December are already difficult times. And even if it might come through later wait list, will that work for you. But it will if you bought on property and followed my advice or making the right reservation at your home resort then trying to change over at 7 months out.

 

[Beca]

I too think that in the near future you will see some people asking for $14 to $15 a point to rent out BCV, and the only reason for it is because (1) the resort is so close to Epocot and (2) the pool (SAB). But I have a feeling it's the pool that is making this resort so hot to have. If you look at past post all you read about is how cool the pool is, (which it is)and this is what is driving the the price up so much.JMHO.

Well, as for me it is NOT the pool...I get SERIOUS sinus infections, and an instant headache everytime I go into chlorinated water (our pool at our last house was salt water...now, we don't have one ). ) Therefore, I don't know how much use I will ever get out of SAB (except the few times I endure it to play with my dd). Now, my dd and my dh...that's another story!!!

But, I STILL prefer BCV...why?...location, theming, color scheme, and peacefulness...it's just perfect for me, and I am VERY willing to pay for that.
Now, honestly...there is the "exclusivity" factor. DVC created this when they stopped allowing pool-hopping to BCV. I think one of the BEST things DVC could do to raise prices at each individual resort, would be to end pool-hopping at all resorts. NOT that I am advocating this...I really don't care...I don't go swimming on vacation for the reasons mentioned above. But, I think "exclusivity" at EACH resort might start to build the demand for the resort that BCV has. Granted, BCV's pool is REALLY cool...but, so is the Keister Coaster, and so is OKW's new slide (although, I hear it is pretty deadly!!! )



Beca

 

[crisi]

But realistically, for most folks who want to see the parks, how much is a few hours a year in a "special" pool really worth? It has a limit...

Apparently, that limit is somewhere around or north of the current resale value. Supply and demand. The market won't support a price that isn't "worth" it. Not worth it for me - I'm not a SAB fan (cool pool, when my kids are older we will start our Saturday night stay there are cash - but there are only a few years where SAB is an acceptable pool to us) and appearently not worth it to you.

Perhaps there are more people thinking long term. SAB may appeal when folks are a little more "parked out" from years of ownership. It may appeal more for people who are interested in a few days with no parks.