Shooting holes in the "buy where you want to stay" argument.

[ricapito]

Is this good advice anymore? With BCV near $89, VB around $63, and OKW around $73 I can't help but be skeptical. I think BCV is the poster-child of irrational exuberance, and overvalued IMO. 200 points at BCV is now around $18,000. You could get 290 points at VB !! or 250 at OKW for the same money. Mr. BCV buyer: I could buy VB now and much of the year spend a full week longer than YOU, or better yet that weekend you wish you had points for, at YOUR home resort for the same money!

Ponder this:

1: Again, that's ONE FULL WEEK extra in a studio at most resorts 8 months out of the year!
2: That's a very nice upgrade to a (much) bigger crib if you'll only go one week anyway. Think about it.
3: Most people don't go at peak, from what I can glean on this board there are very few times during the year when the 7 month window won't work, even if a little white-knuckle wait-lisiting is involved. With SSR and OKW how often will there not be anyplace at WDW with space at 7 months out? Not everyone is picky about where they stay, so long as it is on-site. I think the addition of the massive SSR changes the value proposition for a place like VB (or even OKW) making it more likely to transfer in to WDW, in style as well...
4: Disney isn't going to do away with resort swapping, it's a huge selling point. They may tamper with lead times (possibly in favor of swappers!), but is it a big deal? I don't buy the scare tactics on this issue....
5. Add a free week at HH or VB or some time at an Interval locale for free every year in lieu of 2 weeks at WDW!
6: You could profit renting VB points with ressies at the 7 month window.
7. That's the Friday/sat night stay most of us have to avoid as of now so as to spare our precious points!

Unless you plan to go at peak times I just don't see it. If a couple on a budget came to me right now I'd advise to stay away from BCV and get the same # of points for $5400 less by buying at VB or $3400 less and buy at OKW (undervalued). I'm sure there are other arguments on my side as well, and I don't mind getting roughed up a bit either (as usual).

Ciao,
Ricapito

 

[KANSAS]

I am a BCV owner. I have read your post and it has some good points.

IF DVC, were to reduce the 4 month advantage for us at our Home resort
to 3 months or even 1 month
( I am not stating this is going to happen)

but for sake of discussion


How much would this devalue the BCV resales??

 

[Alexander]

BCV has been harder to get into lately (we do travel during peak times unfortunately). And as long as people are going to continue paying upwards of $90, then the price will continue to climb. It's the old supply and demand game. With the price also being so high, people look at it like it's got to be a better place......We own at SSR and don't care where we end up as long as it's a DVC resort.

 

[sjdisneywedding]

I completely disagree. I think it actually will become more important to buy where you want to stay as membership keeps growing and growing.

Now if you dont care what time of year you go or where you stay, thats one thing, but if you want that specific resort or go during certain busy times well then thats a whole other thing. Also I see quite the opposite from what you say you see here, in that I see many many dvc'ers here going during peak times.


I personally do not really feel like playing around with waitlists when talking about my vacation. Also I am not all that picky about which resorts I stay in, but buying vb with plans to stay at WDW every year seems a bit risky to me.

It all goes back to each individuals vacationing habits. Some may think 250 points at okw is worth way more than 200 at bcv, but some might think the complete opposite in that 200 bvc is worht more than 250 at okw

I can definately see recommending okw to new couples looking into dvc, but i would never ever recommend VB for a couple looking to vacation mostly at WDW

 

[SoCalKDG]

I'd buy BWV if you want the Epcot area, or VWL if you want the MK area, or OKW if you just want to be at WDW. For many people though, spending an extra $3000 to get 200 points at BCV instead of somewhere else is a drop in the bucket.

 

[ricapito]

For many people though, spending an extra $3000 to get 200 points at BCV instead of somewhere else is a drop in the bucket.

Good point. But what happens when the home equity bubble bursts and people can only spend what they actually save? This is another subject I know, but where does WDW keep finding all these new buyers anyway? Real incomes have declined for 4 years straight. $3500-$5500 might matter again someday (soon).


KANSAS: I wouldn't be surprised if BCV was back down to $77-$79 at the time they announce the next DVC resort...

 

[JimC]

My guess is that as SSR expands -- the smaller resorts, like BCV, are going to be more difficult to get into if you do not have home resort advantage during certain times of the year.

Another consideration, do not just compare purchase price. Dues are an important factor and VB (unsubsidized) has the highest.

Also location is an important factor and there is strong demand for that Epcot resort area.

I don't think DVC at any of the current resale prices makes a good trade out of our own program. Certainly not if you purchase another timeshare for that purpose.

 

[KANSAS]

ricapito

is your prediction, based on the DVC II resort
being

at
animal kingdom
contemporary
or
Polynesian

 

[ricapito]

ricapito, is your prediction, based on the DVC II resort
being at
animal kingdom
contemporary
or
Polynesian

Any one of these!!

 

[Beca]

KANSAS: I wouldn't be surprised if BCV was back down to $77-$79 at the time they announce the next DVC resort...

I completely disagree...but, if that were to happen, I would certainly be doing the "happy add-on" dance!!!



Beca

 

[DebbieB]

I would think twice about buying VB. Their dues are the highest by far and they could be hit with a special assessment this year for hurricane damage. It is cheaper to buy but you will also get less if you have to sell. I know someone who recently sold VB and got $65 per point. BCV is selling in the $75 to $80 range. Disney isn't going to exercise ROFR very often at VB because they are going to have a hard time selling it for their prices.

 

[rinkwide]

Interesting argument. Funny thing is, when you add in the projected maintenance costs of both contracts, Beach Club at $90 and Vero at $67 are essentially the same price.

 

[ricapito]

What are the dues at VB v. BCV? I didn't realize there was a big difference? I thought on a 200 point contract maybe $150 a year if that? What are "projected" maintenance costs?

 

[JimFitz]

We purchased 250 points at OKW via resale that had 500 points available immediately and another 250 coming 3 months later.

We did the math and this was the best value for us. We bought without having been to Disney in over 20 years.

We will never go to Disney at peak (or near peak) times. We will always travel in September, Jan other slower times. We stayed at VWL last time and it was very nice and we hope to go back someday.

BCV is nice but a bit overratted. I think if a pool is important to you, then you need to go to BCV. Pools are not important to my family...I mean we use them and the kids love them, but it's not the most important part of the vacation.

 

[senecabeach]

Annual dues for 2005 per POINT
at each resort are as follows:


Saratoga Springs $3.82
Old Key West $3.86
Hilton Head Island $4.03
Beach Club Villas $4.26
Wilderness Lodge $4.35
Boardwalk Villas $4.41
Vero Beach $4.86

 

[snowbunny]

Ricapito you make some excellent points IMO. I've thought of buying Vero just for the reasons you said. I'd buy a small contract so the maintenance fee is not a big issue. My larger concern however would be disney selling VB down the road, and what that would mean when I really want to stay on property in Orlando.

Your general comments about the economy are right on. When real estate values correct (I'm talking about our houses, not DVC), there is going to be a reckoning. People maxed out with home equity loans, 10% (!!) disney loans, etc. are going to be squeezed.

Income relative to housing values is at historically unsustainable levels, the dollar is weakening while the euro is gaining, and the leases at BCV aren't getting any longer. I still would love to buy there, but if I can, it will be a small contract, not a huge commitment.

 

[jcodespoti]

Good point. But what happens when the home equity bubble bursts and people can only spend what they actually save? This is another subject I know, but where does WDW keep finding all these new buyers anyway? Real incomes have declined for 4 years straight. $3500-$5500 might matter again someday (soon)

Have you seen the dollar against the Euro? I bet a lot are foreigners.

We will never go to Disney at peak (or near peak) times. We will always travel in September, Jan other slower times. We stayed at VWL last time and it was very nice and we hope to go back someday.

But for many DVC owners that is peak time to go because the point values are so good.

The more members you have the more valuable the 11 month booking window is.

4: Disney isn't going to do away with resort swapping, it's a huge selling point. They may tamper with lead times (possibly in favor of swappers!), but is it a big deal? I don't buy the scare tactics on this issue....

But is written into your IPO statement?. I agree its a great selling point...but things can change and you only get whats in your contract.

Joe in CT

 

[ricapito]

Only $140 yearly difference in dues between VB and BCV on a 200 point contract. Not fatal to my argument, but worth weighing no doubt...

As an SSR owner I've never really thought too much about dues and frankly that dues chart is an eye-opener. I didn't realize how much more the dues were at places other than SSR.

As for the Euro, it just may be the next U.S. dollar. Who knows what impact that might have on the U.S. economy when places like China and Japan stop buying USD to finance our deficits.... Where is it written that the U.S. has to be the dominant global economy forever anyway? Time to trim these budget and trade deficits IMO...

 

[Dean]

It really depend on YOUR situation, how you will use it, how flexible you are, your financial situation and the like. Frankly, I think most people who HAVE to finance, shouldn't buy at that time. They should save their money, vacation less now and pay cash, else they should look elsewhere. There are exceptions of course like money coming in that isn't here yet and the like. You know the 6 months expenses in savings, pay off your credit cards, pay your mortgage down, etc idea.

But assuming month to month finances aren't the issue, it depends. VB is an extreme example because the costs are lower and the dues are HIGH and for DVC, that's saying something. I don't think it'll ever be worth buying VB to stay at WDW but maybe you want to stay at VB part of the time. And there will be a spread where the equation changes, on that we agree.

Just taking the idea of someone wanting to stay at a specific resort and/or needs a specialty unit (BWV BW view, 3 BR, 2 queens in second, etc). If you must have it, buy there or don't buy, it's that simple. With anything else you will likely not be happy. As DVC grows, certain resorts and times will be only available to owners at that resort, I think we're there now for some options. But maybe you want to stay at WDW and try all the resorts, then simply looking at the numbers is reasonable. You could reserve at 11 months out then see what's available at 7 months. And if you own on property, you're stay is set other than where you're staying. In this situation, I think OKW is the best choice for many. I don't give much value to SSR for 12 years starting almost 40 years from now, but if you do, factor that in. As for resale prices, don't get caught up in the idea they are reflective of true value. DVC has the habit of accelerating ROFR to jack up retail interest then backing off. I think it's reasonable to think that all DVC properties including BCV will be available for the low to mid $70 pp for some time to come and I doubt they'll ever get much over that, at least for the ones that expire in 2042. They may continue to edge up for a few years but at some point they will level off and begin to fall. How soon, fast and how far they will fall depends on a lot of factors we don't have the info for yet.

If you want to look at the number of points you'll use, you may also want to look at the number of points per stay. For stays like OKW and standard view BW, this will be significantly less. SSR the same to a lessor degree. So BWV is likely the best combo of savings and location due to the standard view options, older contracts and larger number of points/contracts potentially available. And if cost is a major factor, plan on using Sun-Fri and cash if you stay weekends, the savings is quite a bit compared to using points for the weekends.

 

[joepoe]

The OP's point is a good one. If you can book into any DVC at seven months out, why not buy the cheaper one, like Vero? We bought at BWV through DVC and then OKW through the TS Store, and got a good deal. We can plan 11 months out, in fact, we prefer to do so because with kids in school, we have to compete with prime time more often than not.