Shanghai Trouble?

[Yellowstonetim]

They could still mess it up, but going was the right move. They could do something culturally stupid and it could do very poorly. But to say it was a dumb idea because China doesn't know Disney is to pay no attention to the last 10 years of motion picture and theme park history.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Motion picture history is china is growing but still lagging massively behind.

They do 100 mil in box office on a big movie...which does 350+ In the US.

They only have about 6:1 population advantage.


The point is they have along way to go and these Chinese parks are far from certain like Tokyo Disney sea was....

And at the heart of it...drawing all the attention away from the US parks...which are a sure bet and we had all paid a fortune for and continue to.

 

[crazy4wdw]

Why haven't there been like any maps or plans or practically anything on the net on this project and its (supossidly) so far along?

Here are a few recent videos:

 

[Barnabe]

I think Iger may have wanted to see this through and thought it would be a gold mine for the Company and his legacy before he retires as CEO... (much like Eisner did during the 'Disney Decade' in FL, and the construction of then EuroDisney).

Between MDE and Disney Shangai, I don't think Iger's legacy is going to be too hot. Heck, Iger makes Eisner look heroic. People were cheering when Eisner left the company.

 

[Barnabe]

Not just a line. A mile long line. So long that they went to the end and closed the line because there were more people then they could get in the store in that day after it opened at 1pm. That is not a normal grand opening. And 4 days later... the queue was only an hour.

The people at Disney know what they are doing. And Shanghai is a great move. It is clear how China is changing and how Disney movies and products are loved. Disney has also learned to respect and embrace the culture surrounding each park.

http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight...ghai-disneyland-lead-charge-asian-theme-parks

You don't answer my question: were customers exiting the store laden with shopping bags or were they just looking?

 

[Josh Hendy]

Here's another little lesson about opening "huge" American franchises in China.

When the first McDonalds opened in downtown Beijing, on the busiest corner in the city, it was shortly afterwards expropriated by some communist party officials who were more powerful than the officials who had signed the original lease. The multi-decade lease was simply shredded and some kind of new, Chinese-owned store or shopping center was built on the site.

IIRC ... there was some bad press in the West about it, but no real tears were shed. Probably there were some complaints made by American diplomats and some "I told you so" news stories. However, after the fact there were some recriminations and disputes among the various factions of communist officials who were either pro- or anti-McDs. Or more likely, the different factions were disputing over who would get most of the money from impending makeover and modernization of Beijing's shopping district, and McD's was a (mostly) innocent victim caught in the crossfire.

I believe that in the end, McD's was allowed to rent another, slightly less prominent site. One of the Beijing officials (a deputy mayor) involved in the dispute committed suicide. A Beijing native who told me about this was very impressed and mystified since he said, "Suicide is very unusual among Chinese officials".

Of interest to Shanghai Disneyland watchers is that, at the time, IIRC, I was told that the dispute over McDonalds in Beijing was between factions of Beijing-based and Shanghai-based communist officials. It's possible that the "good cop/bad cop" treatment of Disney execs has more to do with different factions from different power bases sticking their noses into the theme park project, than it has to do with the same officials signing deals one year and getting all huffy and anti-Western the next.

 

[dinolounger]

This relationship is going to be a pain in the butt for the next decade or more as China transitions to more openness.

That supposed transition was supposed to have started back in 1972 when Nixon "opened" China.

Over forty years later, the government just announced that every business (which will in all likelihood include Disney Shanghai) has to have an internal communist party unit:

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/c...ve-communist-party-units-reuters-2271298.html

Yep, we'll all be able to feel the love when CMs have to open the park each day handing out pamphlets on the glories of communal property and reminding guests that it is illegal to watch foreign television while exercising in a health club:

http://www.seattletimes.com/nation-...in-beijing-ahead-of-communist-party-congress/

 

[Barnabe]

I think China's government is really fascinating. They realized that all citizens (except the communist party) getting an equal piece of the pie, regardless of their amount of labor, was a complete failure. So now the citizens have more incentives to be entrepreneurs and be industrious. However, at the same time the Communist party must maintain control, so they're an ominous presence throughout the country.

I also believe it's foolish of any US company to assume their foreign investments will be safe in other countries. Putin is doing the same thing to US investors in Russia.

 

[Yellowstonetim]

Motion picture history is china is growing but still lagging massively behind.

They do 100 mil in box office on a big movie...which does 350+ In the US.

They only have about 6:1 population advantage.

The point is they have along way to go and these Chinese parks are far from certain like Tokyo Disney sea was....

And at the heart of it...drawing all the attention away from the US parks...which are a sure bet and we had all paid a fortune for and continue to.

Yes they do $100 million, however, Disney's Avengers Age of Ultron made $155 million (3rd biggest all time in China) and other Disney movies have been very successful. Not only is there lots of room for growth, that growth is happening at a dizzying rate. Movies are not limited to the middle class and theaters are growing leaps and bounds in China. It won't be too many decades until many successful US movies gross more in China then in the U.S. Big Hero 6 did $83.5 million, Cinderella did $71 Million, btw. China knows Disney.

You don't answer my question: were customers exiting the store laden with shopping bags or were they just looking?

No articles talked about that, but if they weren't, it would have been news. People don't wait in line for 4 hours for a store opening without buying plenty of merchandise once they get inside.

 

[RescueRanger]

Yes they do $100 million, however, Disney's Avengers Age of Ultron made $155 million (3rd biggest all time in China) and other Disney movies have been very successful. Not only is there lots of room for growth, that growth is happening at a dizzying rate. Movies are not limited to the middle class and theaters are growing leaps and bounds in China. It won't be too many decades until many successful US movies gross more in China then in the U.S. Big Hero 6 did $83.5 million, Cinderella did $71 Million, btw. China knows Disney.



No articles talked about that, but if they weren't, it would have been news. People don't wait in line for 4 hours for a store opening without buying plenty of merchandise once they get inside.

Do you walk around town everyday with a "I love Disney" t-shirt carrying pom poms? Honestly, I think you are a paid Disney shill. If you aren't, then you need to be. Don't bother responding to me. I am putting you on ignore. Your incessant cheerleading just rakes my nerves. I love WDW as much as anyone, but I am not so foolish to think that they aren't making some big mistakes.

 

[Yellowstonetim]

Do you walk around town everyday with a "I love Disney" t-shirt carrying pom poms? Honestly, I think you are a paid Disney shill. If you aren't, then you need to be. Don't bother responding to me. I am putting you on ignore. Your incessant cheerleading just rakes my nerves. I love WDW as much as anyone, but I am not so foolish to think that they aren't making some big mistakes.

Ummm. I do have a few I love Disney shirts. I am a Disney fan. This is a Disney board for Disney fans, right? This isn't an I HATE DISNEY website, is it? Or maybe it is. Wow. That bad, huh? I argue in the positive and you can't stand me. You have over 1,100 posts on a DISNEY FAN SITE yet pro Disney people get on your nerves. You should seek help. Of course you aren't reading this, but isn't it kind of funny that on a board for DISNEY FANS someone is disgusted that another poster is pro-Disney. That is pretty funny if you think about it!!! Sadly hilarious, if you ask me, and somewhat strange but par for the course on these boards. This is the internet in the 21st century and negativity seems to rule nearly everywhere people post.

 

[rteetz]

Ummm. I do have a few I love Disney shirts. I am a Disney fan. This is a Disney board for Disney fans, right? This isn't an I HATE DISNEY website, is it? Or maybe it is. Wow. That bad, huh? I argue in the positive and you can't stand me. You have over 1,100 posts on a DISNEY FAN SITE yet pro Disney people get on your nerves. You should seek help. Of course you aren't reading this, but isn't it kind of funny that on a board for DISNEY FANS someone is disgusted that another poster is pro-Disney. That is pretty funny if you think about it!!! Sadly hilarious, if you ask me, and somewhat strange but par for the course on these boards. This is the internet in the 21st century and negativity seems to rule nearly everywhere people post.

This is a discussion board where opinions are everything. Everyone has their own and is entitled to that. By no means is Disney perfect. By no means are any of us perfect.

 

[Yellowstonetim]

This is a discussion board where opinions are everything. Everyone has their own and is entitled to that. By no means is Disney perfect. By no means are any of us perfect.

Absolutely. I don't think Disney is perfect, actually. I just don't think it is bad as some others here. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. And generally most enjoy the discussion and banter. But you must see the humor in someone getting bent out of shape and being unable to even see a pro-Disney poster's posts... on a Disney board.

 

[Barnabe]

No articles talked about that, but if they weren't, it would have been news. People don't wait in line for 4 hours for a store opening without buying plenty of merchandise once they get inside

So you are assuming a lot. I still think people can line up and look at merchandise and buy nothing. You have no evidence to support your claim.

 

[Yellowstonetim]

So you are assuming a lot. I still think people can line up and look at merchandise and buy nothing. You have no evidence to support your claim.

Assuming a lot!? Riiiiiiiight. A hundred thousand people line up to go into a store and you want to assume they DIDN'T buy anything?! I think it is a pretty safe assumption that all those kids in the pictures got toys. And there were plenty of pics I saw showing people with bags leaving. Sure some didn't buy. But they would obviously be the minority. That is what people lined up for... to shop in a Disney store. And I have no doubt Disney did bang-up business. You don't wait 4 hours and then buy nothing. But, no, I don't have any concrete proof. In fact, I don't have any concrete proof there is even a Disney store in Shanghai.

 

[Barnabe]

Assuming a lot!? Riiiiiiiight. A hundred thousand people line up to go into a store and you want to assume they DIDN'T buy anything?! I think it is a pretty safe assumption that all those kids in the pictures got toys. And there were plenty of pics I saw showing people with bags leaving. Sure some didn't buy. But they would obviously be the minority. That is what people lined up for... to shop in a Disney store. And I have no doubt Disney did bang-up business. You don't wait 4 hours and then buy nothing. But, no, I don't have any concrete proof. In fact, I don't have any concrete proof there is even a Disney store in Shanghai.

The fact is you don't know about the sales. You know about lines getting in to the store. You can try to dismiss what I'm saying by being sarcastic, but the fact is you are speculating. Nothing more.

 

[rteetz]

The fact is you don't know about the sales. You know about lines getting in to the store. You can try to dismiss what I'm saying by being sarcastic, but the fact is you are speculating. Nothing more.

Also my question is what has the store been like since the opening? Has it been just as busy? Has it been successful?

 

[Barnabe]

Also my question is what has the store been like since the opening? Has it been just as busy? Has it been successful?

All great questions. From what I've read, mainland China does not identify with the Disney icons. So is a store that features Disney merchandise going to be successful? Who knows?

 

[Yellowstonetim]

The fact is you don't know about the sales. You know about lines getting in to the store. You can try to dismiss what I'm saying by being sarcastic, but the fact is you are speculating. Nothing more.

YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING! Really? Yes I am being sarcastic because this is ridiculous. You are being unreasonable. I think when tens of thousands of people wait to go into a store it can be generally assumed that most bought something and sales were high that day. That is reasonable. I have never heard of any situation that was otherwise. Find a news story that talks about low sales or find anything that gives any indication that people didn't buy that day. If you cannot, then the reasonable rational assumption is that PEOPLE LINED UP TO GO INTO A STORE TO BUY THINGS. Do you have any evidence that the reasonable and rational normal assumption is wrong? Let's hear it.

Also my question is what has the store been like since the opening? Has it been just as busy? Has it been successful?

For 4 days there were continued long lines of an hour to get inside. I haven't read anything since, but store attendance is like movie attendance: Patterns of behavior are predictable within normal ranges. For example, whatever a movie makes on opening weekend, whether $10 million or $100 million, it is probably going to decrease the next week by anywhere form 40 to 60 percent. $100M movies never drop to $2M and $10M movies never jump in the second week to $50M. Same rules apply. The first day and week after a store grand opening gives some indication, within a range, of performance over the near future.

Obviously we don't know long term what will happen. You have to take everything one day at a time. But in the area of brand recognition and public acceptance, historic crowds at a grand opening is never bad. That generally portends good. Every news story I've seen is saying the response suggests a high interest in Disney among Shanghai's population. That is a reasonable conclusion. Unless everybody stood in line for hours to go in a store they didn't care about and not buy anything. That is not a reasonable assumption to make based on any rational approach to how sales work anywhere, including China. And remember, this is China with an enormous population and Shanghai is China's biggest city.

I am not yet predicting massive success, but so far the facts are pointing in the direction of success. There is no other reasonable way to logically interpret the facts. Just like the facts about the Tomorrowland movie are pointing in the direction of failure, even if the jury isn't in yet and it isn't "historic" in level. I can accept both - one I like and one I don't - but both assumptions are at this point supported by the facts.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Assuming a lot!? Riiiiiiiight. A hundred thousand people line up to go into a store and you want to assume they DIDN'T buy anything?! I think it is a pretty safe assumption that all those kids in the pictures got toys. And there were plenty of pics I saw showing people with bags leaving. Sure some didn't buy. But they would obviously be the minority. That is what people lined up for... to shop in a Disney store. And I have no doubt Disney did bang-up business. You don't wait 4 hours and then buy nothing. But, no, I don't have any concrete proof. In fact, I don't have any concrete proof there is even a Disney store in Shanghai.

Again...you're talking as though china is like macys at the king of Prussia mall on Black Friday..

That is the crux of the argument on the entire thread...you cannot look at china in American terms.

That doesn't mean the park will fail or Disney will suffer...but there is a legitimate level of doubt as to if this is a fools gambit.